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In this paper, we investigate how the introduction of complex, model-based capital regulation affected credit risk of financial institutions. Model-based regulation was meant to enhance the stability of the financial sector by making capital charges more sensitive to risk. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the model-based approach in Germany and the richness of our loan-level data set, we show that (1) internal risk estimates employed for regulatory purposes systematically underpredict actual default rates by 0.5 to 1 percentage points; (2) both default rates and loss rates are higher for loans that were originated under the model-based approach, while corresponding risk-weights are significantly lower; and (3) interest rates are higher for loans originated under the model-based approach, suggesting that banks were aware of the higher risk associated with these loans and priced them accordingly. Further, we document that large banks benefited from the reform as they experienced a reduction in capital charges and consequently expanded their lending at the expense of smaller banks that did not introduce the model-based approach. Counter to the stated objectives, the introduction of complex regulation adversely affected the credit risk of financial institutions. Overall, our results highlight the pitfalls of complex regulation and suggest that simpler rules may increase the efficacy of financial regulation.
In this paper we investigate the implications of providing loan officers with a compensation structure that rewards loan volume and penalizes poor performance versus a fixed wage unrelated to performance. We study detailed transaction information for more than 45,000 loans issued by 240 loan officers of a large commercial bank in Europe. We examine the three main activities that loan officers perform: monitoring, originating, and screening. We find that when the performance of their portfolio deteriorates, loan officers increase their effort to monitor existing borrowers, reduce loan origination, and approve a higher fraction of loan applications. These loans, however, are of above-average quality. Consistent with the theoretical literature on multitasking in incomplete contracts, we show that loan officers neglect activities that are not directly rewarded under the contract, but are in the interest of the bank. In addition, while the response by loan officers constitutes a rational response to a time allocation problem, their reaction to incentives appears myopic in other dimensions.
Reading through the Charcoal Industry in Ethiopia : Production, Marketing, Consumption and Impact
(2014)
Studies in many African countries show that charcoal making is among the primary drivers of deforestation and subsequent land degradation. In the case of Ethiopia, charcoal is produced from state-owned (public) forests and woodlands. There is little regulatory intervention from the government side. Moreover, production is more traditional and the producers have little idea that charcoal can be produced efficiently with modern technologies. Although charcoal meets significant portion of urban households' energy needs in the country, and also support the livelihood of tens of thousands of rural households, it hardly attracted the attention of policy makers and development agents. A good majority of urban population who use charcoal on regular basis doesn't seem to know how charcoal is made, from where it comes, and its adverse environmental impacts. In cognizant of the potential environmental impact of charcoal production and marketing in the country, FSS commissioned this study with the objective to understand the environmental, social and economic implications of charcoal production, marketing and consumption in Ethiopia with aim to generate/increase awareness among the general public and incite a policy debate among concerned key stakeholders.
Acacia pendula, Weeping Myall, (family Fabaceae) is the most legislatively protected plant species in the New South Wales Hunter Valley. Under the NSW Threatened Species Conservation Act 1995 it is listed as an Endangered Population (in the Hunter Valley) and as a component of two Endangered Ecological Communities (one in the Hunter, one elsewhere in NSW); it is also listed as a Critically Endangered Ecological Community (in the Hunter Valley) on the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 and listed as threatened in three other eastern Australian States.
To ascertain the likely original distribution of stands of Acacia pendula in the Hunter Valley, this paper examines the writings of early Australian explorers, herbarium and database records, and the species habitat attributes across NSW. None of the journals examined, including those of botanist/explorer Allan Cunningham (who originally collected Acacia pendula from the Lachlan River in 1817), Thomas Mitchell or Ludwig Leichhardt, make note of the species for the Hunter Valley. Several explorers do, however, record Acacia pendula regularly (>100 times) across other parts of NSW, Queensland, and South Australia.
Historical herbarium and database records show a paucity of records from the Hunter prior to the year 2000, after which a 37-fold increase in observations since 1951 is apparent. For the first 128 years of botanical exploration (1823 to 1951), there are no validated collections or records of Acacia pendula from the Hunter Valley. The single exception is a specimen collected by Cunningham from 1825 (lodged at Kew, UK), purported to be from ‘Hunters River’, but which is morphologically different to other collections of Acacia pendula from that time. There is some uncertainty over the origins of this specimen.
Analysis of habitats supporting Acacia pendula in NSW outside of the Hunter show them to differ significantly in geological age, soil type, rainfall and elevation from those in the Hunter.
Collectively, these findings provide a strong circumstantial case that Acacia pendula was absent from the Hunter at the time of European settlement; this has important implications for the conservation and management of Hunter stands. Rather than being a threatened species in the Hunter Valley, it is postulated that Acacia pendula has been intentionally and/or accidentally introduced to the region, and may now be imposing a new and emerging threat to the endangered grassy woodlands and forests there. There is now an urgent need for genetic studies to clarify the origins of the current Hunter Valley stands, and to define the taxonomic limits of Acacia pendula and its close relatives.
The ( J, T ) = (1, 1) parity doublet in 20Ne at 11.26 MeV is a good candidate to study parity violation in nuclei. However, its energy splitting is known with insufficient accuracy for quantitative estimates of parity violating effects. To improve on this unsatisfactory situation, nuclear resonance fluorescence experiments using linearly and circularly polarized γ -ray beams were used to determine the energy difference of the parity doublet E = E(1−) − E(1+) = −3.2(±0.7)stat( +0.6 −1.2)sys keV and the ratio of their integrated cross sections I (+) s,0 /I (−) s,0 = 29(±3)stat( +14 −7 )sys. Shell-model calculations predict a parityviolating matrix element having a value in the range 0.46–0.83 eV for the parity doublet. The small energy difference of the parity doublet makes 20Ne an excellent candidate to study parity violation in nuclear excitations.
A concern for social regeneration stands as the factor that animates Soyinka's life-long involvement in social and political activism, leading to hid incarceration for two years during the civil war, and his having to flee into exile during the period of Sani Abacha's dictatorship. Soyinka expresses this same concern for social regeneration in his writings, using difference metaphors. The focus of this work lies in the exploration of the articulations of social regeneration in the works of Wole Soyinka. The first past focuses on the dramatic works, and the argument of the author is that the metaphor adopted by Africa's foremost playwright in articulating his vision of social regeneration is that of ritual. Attention shifts in part two to Soyinka's two novels; and here, Bello goes to the roots of Yoruba metaphysics to fetch a metaphor which describes a creature with contradictory personality; which at once is committed to the regeneration of the social order while at the same time retaining a vindictive, vengeful nature.
Escherichia coli α-hemolysin (HlyA) is a pore-forming protein of 110 kDa belonging to the family of RTX toxins. A hydrophobic region between the amino acid residues 238 and 410 in the N-terminal half of HlyA has previously been suggested to form hydrophobic and/or amphipathic α-helices and has been shown to be important for hemolytic activity and pore formation in biological and artificial membranes. The structure of the HlyA transmembrane channel is, however, largely unknown. For further investigation of the channel structure, we deleted in HlyA different stretches of amino acids that could form amphipathic β-strands according to secondary structure predictions (residues 71–110, 158–167, 180–203, and 264–286). These deletions resulted in HlyA mutants with strongly reduced hemolytic activity. Lipid bilayer measurements demonstrated that HlyAΔ71–110 and HlyAΔ264–286 formed channels with much smaller single-channel conductance than wildtype HlyA, whereas their channel-forming activity was virtually as high as that of the wildtype toxin. HlyAΔ158–167 and HlyAΔ180–203 were unable to form defined channels in lipid bilayers. Calculations based on the single-channel data indicated that the channels generated by HlyAΔ71–110 and HlyAΔ264–286 had a smaller size (diameter about 1.4 to 1.8 nm) than wildtype HlyA channels (diameter about 2.0 to 2.6 nm), suggesting that in these mutants part of the channel-forming domain was removed. Osmotic protection experiments with erythrocytes confirmed that HlyA, HlyAΔ71–110, and HlyAΔ264–286 form defined transmembrane pores and suggested channel diameters that largely agreed with those estimated from the single-channel data. Taken together, these results suggest that the channel-forming domain of HlyA might contain β-strands, possibly in addition to α-helical structures.
Low interest rates are becoming a threat to the stability of the life insurance industry, especially in countries such as Germany, where products with relatively high guaranteed returns sold in the past still represent a prominent share of the total portfolio. This contribution aims to assess and quantify the effects of the current low interest rate phase on the balance sheet of a representative German life insurer, given the current asset allocation and the outstanding liabilities. To do so, we generate a stochastic term structure of interest rates as well as stock market returns to simulate investment returns of a stylized life insurance business portfolio in a multi-period setting. Based on empirically calibrated parameters, we can observe the evolution of the life insurers' balance sheet over time with a special focus on their solvency situation. To account for different scenarios and in order to check the robustness of our findings, we calibrate different capital market settings and different initial situations of capital endowment. Our results suggest that a prolonged period of low interest rates would markedly affect the solvency situation of life insurers, leading to relatively high cumulative probability of default for less capitalized companies.
The title solvated salt, C29H41N2+·Br-·2CH2Cl2 was obtained from the reaction of the Arduengo-type carbene 1,3-bis(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)-1,3-dihydro-4,5-dimethyl-2H-imidazol-2-ylidene with Si2Br6 in dichloromethane. The complete cation is generated by a crystallographic mirror plane and the dihedral angle between the five-membered ring and the benzene ring is 89.8 (6)°; the dihedral angle between the benzene rings is 40.7 (2)°. The anion also lies on the mirror plane and both dichloromethane molecules are disordered across the mirror plane over two equally occupied orientations. In the crystal, the cations are linked to the anions via C-H...Br hydrogen bonds.
Background: Birch pollen-allergic subjects produce polyclonal cross-reactive IgE antibodies that mediate pollen-associated food allergies. The major allergen Bet v 1 and its homologs in plant foods bind IgE in their native protein conformation. Information on location, number and clinical relevance of IgE epitopes is limited. We addressed the use of an allergen-related protein model to identify amino acids critical for IgE binding of PR-10 allergens.
Method: Norcoclaurine synthase (NCS) from meadow rue is structurally homologous to Bet v 1 but does not bind Bet v 1-reactive IgE. NCS was used as the template for epitope grafting. NCS variants were tested with sera from 70 birch pollen allergic subjects and with monoclonal antibody BV16 reported to compete with IgE binding to Bet v 1.
Results: We generated an NCS variant (Δ29NCSN57/I58E/D60N/V63P/D68K) harboring an IgE epitope of Bet v 1. Bet v 1-type protein folding of the NCS variant was evaluated by 1H-15N-HSQC NMR spectroscopy. BV16 bound the NCS variant and 71% (50/70 sera) of our study population showed significant IgE binding. We observed IgE and BV16 cross-reactivity to the epitope presented by the NCS variant in a subgroup of Bet v 1-related allergens. Moreover BV16 blocked IgE binding to the NCS variant. Antibody cross-reactivity depended on a defined orientation of amino acids within the Bet v 1-type conformation.
Conclusion: Our system allows the evaluation of patient-specific epitope profiles and will facilitate both the identification of clinically relevant epitopes as biomarkers and the monitoring of therapeutic outcomes to improve diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy of allergies caused by PR-10 proteins.
This paper investigates the determinants of value and growth investing in a large administrative panel of Swedish residents over the 1999-2007 period. We document strong relationships between a household’s portfolio tilt and the household’s financial and demographic characteristics. Value investors have higher financial and real estate wealth, lower leverage, lower income risk, lower human capital, and are more likely to be female than the average growth investor. Households actively migrate to value stocks over the life-cycle and, at higher frequencies, dynamically offset the passive variations in the value tilt induced by market movements. We verify that these results are not driven by cohort effects, financial sophistication, biases toward popular or professionally close stocks, or unobserved heterogeneity in preferences. We relate these household-level results to some of the leading explanations of the value premium.
Hereditary angioedema (HAE) is a disease which is associated with random and often unpredictable attacks of painful swelling typically affecting the extremities, bowel mucosa, genitals, face and upper airway. Attacks are associated with significant functional impairment, decreased Health Related Quality of Life, and mortality in the case of laryngeal attacks. Caring for patients with HAE can be challenging due to the complexity of this disease. The care of patients with HAE in Canada is neither optimal nor uniform across the country. It lags behind other countries where there are more organized models for HAE management, and where additional therapeutic options are licensed and available for use. The objective of this guideline is to provide graded recommendations for the management of patients in Canada with HAE. This includes the treatment of attacks, short-term prophylaxis, long-term prophylaxis, and recommendations for self-administration, individualized therapy, quality of life, and comprehensive care. It is anticipated that by providing this guideline to caregivers, policy makers, patients and their advocates, that there will be an improved understanding of the current recommendations regarding management of HAE and the factors that need to be considered when choosing therapies and treatment plans for individual patients. The primary target users of this guideline are healthcare providers who are managing patients with HAE. Other healthcare providers who may use this guideline are emergency physicians, gastroenterologists, dentists and otolaryngologists, who will encounter patients with HAE and need to be aware of this condition. Hospital administrators, insurers and policy makers may also find this guideline helpful.
We propose a framework for estimating network-driven time-varying systemic risk contributions that is applicable to a high-dimensional financial system. Tail risk dependencies and contributions are estimated based on a penalized two-stage fixed-effects quantile approach, which explicitly links bank interconnectedness to systemic risk contributions. The framework is applied to a system of 51 large European banks and 17 sovereigns through the period 2006 to 2013, utilizing both equity and CDS prices. We provide new evidence on how banking sector fragmentation and sovereign-bank linkages evolved over the European sovereign debt crisis and how it is reflected in network statistics and systemic risk measures. Illustrating the usefulness of the framework as a monitoring tool, we provide indication for the fragmentation of the European financial system having peaked and that recovery has started.
We propose a new estimator for the spot covariance matrix of a multi-dimensional continuous semi-martingale log asset price process which is subject to noise and non-synchronous observations. The estimator is constructed based on a local average of block-wise parametric spectral covariance estimates. The latter originate from a local method of moments (LMM) which recently has been introduced by Bibinger et al. (2014). We extend the LMM estimator to allow for autocorrelated noise and propose a method to adaptively infer the autocorrelations from the data. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed spot covariance estimator. Based on extensive simulations we provide empirical guidance on the optimal implementation of the estimator and apply it to high-frequency data of a cross-section of NASDAQ blue chip stocks. Employing the estimator to estimate spot covariances, correlations and betas in normal but also extreme-event periods yields novel insights into intraday covariance and correlation dynamics. We show that intraday (co-)variations (i) follow underlying periodicity patterns, (ii) reveal substantial intraday variability associated with (co-)variation risk, (iii) are strongly serially correlated, and (iv) can increase strongly and nearly instantaneously if new information arrives.
Research in the field of Digital Humanities, also known as Humanities Computing, has seen a steady increase over the past years. Situated at the intersection of computing science and the humanities, present efforts focus on making resources such as texts, images, musical pieces and other semiotic artifacts digitally available, searchable and analysable. To this end, computational tools enabling textual search, visual analytics, data mining, statistics and natural language processing are harnessed to support the humanities researcher. The processing of large data sets with appropriate software opens up novel and fruitful approaches to questions in the traditional humanities. This report summarizes the Dagstuhl seminar 14301 on “Computational Humanities - bridging the gap between Computer Science and Digital Humanities”.
1998 ACM Subject Classification I.2.7 Natural Language Processing, J.5 Arts and Humanities
Money is more than memory
(2014)
Impersonal exchange is the hallmark of an advanced society. One key institution for impersonal exchange is money, which economic theory considers just a primitive arrangement for monitoring past conduct in society. If so, then a public record of past actions — or memory — supersedes the function performed by money. This intriguing theoretical postulate remains untested. In an experiment, we show that the suggested functional equality between money and memory does not translate into an empirical equivalence. Monetary systems perform a richer set of functions than just revealing past behaviors, which proves to be crucial in promoting large-scale cooperation.
We examine the relationship between household wealth and self-control. Although self-control has been linked to consumption and financial behavior, its measurement remains an open issue. We employ a definition of self-control failure that follows literature in psychology, suggesting that three factors can render self-control defective: lack of planning, lack of monitoring, and lack of commitment to pre-set plans. Our measure combines those three ingredients and can be computed using a standard representative survey. We find that self-control failure is strongly associated with different household net wealth measures and with self-assessed financial distress.
Panel Sample Selection ModelsThe empirical evidence currently available in the literature regarding the effects of a country's IMF program participation on its output growth is rather inconclusive. In this paper we propose and estimate a panel data sample selection model featuring state dependence. As in this model the output growth effects of program participation can be conditional on the realization of a state variable (conditional pooling), our framework may reconcile previous empirical evidence based on models without state-dependent effects. We find that the effects of IMF program participation on output growth vary systematically with an index reflecting a country's institutional record, and that output growth effects of program participation are significantly positive only if the program participation is coupled with sufficient improvement of the institutional record.
BACKGROUND: Recent findings support the idea that interleukin (IL)-22 serum levels are related to disease severity in end-stage liver disease. Existing scoring systems--Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation (SOFT) and Pre-allocation-SOFT (P-SOFT)--are well-established in appraising survival rates with or without liver transplantation. We tested the hypothesis that IL-22 serum levels at transplantation date correlate with survival and potentially have value as a predictive factor for survival.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: MELD, SOFT, and P-SOFT scores were calculated to estimate post-transplantation survival. Serum levels of IL-22, IL-6, IL-10, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) were collected prior to transplantation in 41 patients. Outcomes were assessed at 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years after transplantation.
RESULTS: IL-22 significantly correlated with MELD, P-SOFT, and SOFT scores (Rs 0.35, 0.63, 0.56 respectively, p<0.05) and with the discrimination in post-transplantation survival. IL-6 showed a heterogeneous pattern (Rs 0.40, 0.63, 0.57, respectively, p<0.05); CRP and PCT did not correlate. We therefore added IL-22 serum values to existing scoring systems in a generalized linear model (GLM), resulting in a significantly improved outcome prediction in 58% of the cases for both the P-SOFT (p<0.01) and SOFT scores (p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to address the concept that IL-22 serum values at the time of transplantation provide valuable information about survival rates following orthotopic liver transplantation.
Eryphanis zolvizora (Hewitson, 1877) is a rare Andean endemic butterfly, described from Bolivia, which has been historically classified either as a unique species, or as part of a group of three allopatric species from Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia. In this paper, the group is revised using more than 200 specimens housed in 35 European and North and South American public and private collections. For the first time, the presence of the group in Western Ecuador and Venezuela is confirmed, and important data on Peruvian populations are provided. In some populations, individual variations of genitalia are observed. Nevertheless, male genitalia allow the distinction of four geographical groups. Considering also habitus characters, eight taxa are distinguished and considered to be subspecies, of which five are new: Eryphanis zolvizora inca ssp. nov., Eryphanis zolvizora chachapoya ssp. nov., Eryphanis zolvizora casagrande ssp. nov., Eryphanis zolvizora reyi ssp. nov., and Eryphanis zolvizora isabelae ssp. nov. In the present state of knowledge, these taxa are allopatric, except for a possible geographic overlap in central Peru, where data are insufficient to prove sympatry. The “several subspecies vs. several species” dilemma is discussed, considering its impact for conservation action and policies.
Andreas Fahrmeir’s history of the first half of the "long nineteenth century" begins with a disdainful Arthur Young travelling through France at the beginning of 1790 and ends with London’s Great Exhibition of 1851. The contrasting fortunes of France and Great Britain exemplify the contrasting concepts of the title. While the former experienced at least eleven contested regime changes – 1789, 1792, 1793, 1794, 1799, 1814, 1815 (twice), 1830, 1848 and 1850 – the British political system endured, albeit modified by reforms. Moreover, revolutionary-Napoleonic France was responsible for numerous revolutions from above elsewhere, uprooting old regimes and creating satellite states right across the continent, from the Batavian Republic to the Grand Duchy of Warsaw. Old Europe was not restored in 1815. With the Holy Roman Empire gone for good, the Low Countries combined in a single kingdom, Poland expunged from the map once again and the Habsburg Empire much more of an Italian and Balkan power than in the past, quite a new order had emerged. The shallow roots of the new creations ensured their future fragility. ...
Silometopus ambiguus (O. Pickard-Cambridge, 1905) is a species occurring in coastal habitats from northeastern to western Europe. S. curtus (Simon, 1881), occurring in southern France and north-eastern Spain, was for a long time mixed up with S. ambiguus, even though corrections have been published very early and several times. This contribution summarizes publications on this topic, discusses doubtful records of both species and proposes corrections for the World Spider Catalog; and thus tries to avoid repetitions of the mistake in the future.
ALMOST 20% OF THE GERMAN POPULATION CURRENTLY HOLDS A CONSUMER LOAN. DESPITE ITS OBVIOUS IMPORTANCE FOR A PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD’S BALANCE SHEET, WE KNOW SURPRISINGLY LITTLE ABOUT IT. ONE PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY IS TO GIVE AN OVERVIEW OF THE GERMAN CONSUMER/INSTALLMENT LOAN MARKET. WE COMPARED FIVE WIDELY ACCEPTED DATA SOURCES AND FOUND DIFFERENCES IN THE LOAN PARTICIPATION RATE, EVEN ON AN AGGREGATED NATIONWIDE LEVEL. IN A SECOND STEP, WE TRY TO FIND REASONS FOR EXTRAORDINARY HIGH GROWTH RATES AMONG SENIORS’ DEBT PARTICIPATION RATES.
Sanctions placed upon airlines and other operators transporting persons without the required paperwork are called ‘carrier sanctions’. They constitute a key example of how border control mechanisms are currently being outsourced, privatized, delegated, and moved from the border itself to new physical locations. These practices can lead to a phenomenon referred to in this paper as ‘hidden coercion’. This paper argues that, while hidden coercion is commonplace in the reality of migration policy in most states, it is so far neglected in theoretical discussions of state coercion. Moreover, the discussion of carrier sanctions demonstrates that this neglect is problematic, since hidden coercion is not justifiable even within a framework that legitimizes state border coercion.
This paper makes a conceptual contribution to the effect of monetary policy on financial stability. We develop a microfounded network model with endogenous network formation to analyze the impact of central banks' monetary policy interventions on systemic risk. Banks choose their portfolio, including their borrowing and lending decisions on the interbank market, to maximize profit subject to regulatory constraints in an asset-liability framework. Systemic risk arises in the form of multiple bank defaults driven by common shock exposure on asset markets, direct contagion via the interbank market, and firesale spirals. The central bank injects or withdraws liquidity on the interbank markets to achieve its desired interest rate target. A tension arises between the beneficial effects of stabilized interest rates and increased loan volume and the detrimental effects of higher risk taking incentives. We find that central bank supply of liquidity quite generally increases systemic risk.
This paper makes a conceptual contribution to the effect of monetary policy on financial stability. We develop a microfounded network model with endogenous network formation to analyze the impact of central banks' monetary policy interventions on systemic risk. Banks choose their portfolio, including their borrowing and lending decisions on the interbank market, to maximize profit subject to regulatory constraints in an asset-liability framework. Systemic risk arises in the form of multiple bank defaults driven by common shock exposure on asset markets, direct contagion via the interbank market, and firesale spirals. The central bank injects or withdraws liquidity on the interbank markets to achieve its desired interest rate target. A tension arises between the beneficial effects of stabilized interest rates and increased loan volume and the detrimental effects of higher risk taking incentives. We find that central bank supply of liquidity quite generally increases systemic risk.
We review recent results on J/ψ production measured by the ALICE collaboration at the LHC. For pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV yields and spectra of inclusive and prompt J/ψ, as well as results on their polarization and the charged particle multiplicity dependence of yields are presented. Measurements of the nuclear modification factor RAA of inclusive J/ψ at mid-(|y| < 0.9) and forward-rapidities (2.5 < y < 4), covering the range to pt = 0, for centrality selected Pb-Pb collisions are discussed. Also, first results on the J/ψυ2 at forward-rapidities are shown.
Background: The current taxonomy of the African giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) is primarily based on pelage pattern and geographic distribution, and nine subspecies are currently recognized. Although genetic studies have been conducted, their resolution is low, mainly due to limited sampling. Detailed knowledge about the genetic variation and phylogeography of the South African giraffe (G. c. giraffa) and the Angolan giraffe (G. c. angolensis) is lacking. We investigate genetic variation among giraffe matrilines by increased sampling, with a focus on giraffe key areas in southern Africa.
Results: The 1,562 nucleotides long mitochondrial DNA dataset (cytochrome b and partial control region) comprises 138 parsimony informative sites among 161 giraffe individuals from eight populations. We additionally included two okapis as an outgroup. The analyses of the maternally inherited sequences reveal a deep divergence between northern and southern giraffe populations in Africa, and a general pattern of distinct matrilineal clades corresponding to their geographic distribution. Divergence time estimates among giraffe populations place the deepest splits at several hundred thousand years ago.
Conclusions: Our increased sampling in southern Africa suggests that the distribution ranges of the Angolan and South African giraffe need to be redefined. Knowledge about the phylogeography and genetic variation of these two maternal lineages is crucial for the development of appropriate management strategies.
Objective: The objective of this study was to describe and analyze the effects of depression on health care utilization and costs in a sample of multimorbid elderly patients.
Method: This cross-sectional analysis used data of a prospective cohort study, consisting of 1,050 randomly selected multimorbid primary care patients aged 65 to 85 years. Depression was defined as a score of six points or more on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). Subjects passed a geriatric assessment, including a questionnaire for health care utilization. The impact of depression on health care costs was analyzed using multiple linear regression models. A societal perspective was adopted.
Results: Prevalence of depression was 10.7%. Mean total costs per six-month period were €8,144 (95% CI: €6,199-€10,090) in patients with depression as compared to €3,137 (95% CI: €2,735-€3,538; p<0.001) in patients without depression. The positive association between depression and total costs persisted after controlling for socio-economic variables, functional status and level of multimorbidity. In particular, multiple regression analyses showed a significant positive association between depression and pharmaceutical costs.
Conclusion: Among multimorbid elderly patients, depression was associated with significantly higher health care utilization and costs. The effect of depression on costs was even greater than reported by previous studies conducted in less morbid patients.
Families are central to the social and emotional development of youth, and most families engage in musical activities together, such as listening to music or talking about their favorite songs. However, empirical evidence of the positive effects of musical family rituals on social cohesion and emotional well-being is scarce. Furthermore, the role of culture in the shaping of musical family rituals and their psychological benefits has been neglected entirely. This paper investigates musical rituals in families and in peer groups (as an important secondary socialization context) in two traditional/collectivistic and two secular/individualistic cultures, and across two developmental stages (adolescence vs. young adulthood). Based on cross-sectional data from 760 young people in Kenya, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Germany, our study revealed that across cultures music listening in families and in peer groups contributes to family and peer cohesion, respectively. Furthermore, the direct contribution of music in peer groups on well-being appears across cultural contexts, whereas musical family rituals affect emotional well-being in more traditional/collectivistic contexts. Developmental analyses show that musical family rituals are consistently and strongly related to family cohesion across developmental stages, whereas musical rituals in peer groups appear more dependent on the developmental stage (in interaction with culture). Contributing to developmental as well as cross-cultural psychology, this research elucidated musical rituals and their positive effects on the emotional and social development of young people across cultures. The implications for future research and family interventions are discussed.
Resveratrol shows beneficial effects in inflammation-based diseases like cancer, cardiovascular and chronic inflammatory diseases. Therefore, the molecular mechanisms of the anti-inflammatory resveratrol effects deserve more attention. In human epithelial DLD-1 and monocytic Mono Mac 6 cells resveratrol decreased the expression of iNOS, IL-8 and TNF-α by reducing mRNA stability without inhibition of the promoter activity. Shown by pharmacological and siRNA-mediated inhibition, the observed effects are SIRT1-independent. Target-fishing and drug responsive target stability experiments showed selective binding of resveratrol to the RNA-binding protein KSRP, a central post-transcriptional regulator of pro-inflammatory gene expression. Knockdown of KSRP expression prevented resveratrol-induced mRNA destabilization in human and murine cells. Resveratrol did not change KSRP expression, but immunoprecipitation experiments indicated that resveratrol reduces the p38 MAPK-related inhibitory KSRP threonine phosphorylation, without blocking p38 MAPK activation or activity. Mutation of the p38 MAPK target site in KSRP blocked the resveratrol effect on pro-inflammatory gene expression. In addition, resveratrol incubation enhanced KSRP-exosome interaction, which is important for mRNA degradation. Finally, resveratrol incubation enhanced its intra-cellular binding to the IL-8, iNOS and TNF-α mRNA. Therefore, modulation of KSRP mRNA binding activity and, thereby, enhancement of mRNA degradation seems to be the common denominator of many anti-inflammatory effects of resveratrol.
The birth of a new nation is an exciting time. Mick Bond spent the years 1962-73 as a District Officer and a District Commissioner, actively participating in the demise of the colonial regime and then as a civil servant in independent Zambia. This detailed account of his life and work includes the daily routine of a colonial officer, his personal experiences of the 1964 Lumpa conflict and his involvement in the elections of 1962, 1964, and 1968.
The link between atmospheric radicals and newly formed particles at a spruce forest site in Germany
(2014)
It has been claimed for more than a century that atmospheric new particle formation is primarily influenced by the presence of sulfuric acid. However, the activation process of sulfuric acid related clusters into detectable particles is still an unresolved topic. In this study we focus on the PARADE campaign measurements conducted during August/September 2011 at Mt Kleiner Feldberg in central Germany. During this campaign a set of radicals, organic and inorganic compounds and oxidants and aerosol properties were measured or calculated. We compared a range of organic and inorganic nucleation theories, evaluating their ability to simulate measured particle formation rates at 3 nm in diameter (J3) for a variety of different conditions. Nucleation mechanisms involving only sulfuric acid tentatively captured the observed noon-time daily maximum in J3, but displayed an increasing difference to J3 measurements during the rest of the diurnal cycle. Including large organic radicals, i.e. organic peroxy radicals (RO2) deriving from monoterpenes and their oxidation products, in the nucleation mechanism improved the correlation between observed and simulated J3. This supports a recently proposed empirical relationship for new particle formation that has been used in global models. However, the best match between theory and measurements for the site of interest was found for an activation process based on large organic peroxy radicals and stabilised Criegee intermediates (sCI). This novel laboratory-derived algorithm simulated the daily pattern and intensity of J3 observed in the ambient data. In this algorithm organic derived radicals are involved in activation and growth and link the formation rate of smallest aerosol particles with OH during daytime and NO3 during night-time. Because the RO2 lifetime is controlled by HO2 and NO we conclude that peroxy radicals and NO seem to play an important role for ambient radical chemistry not only with respect to oxidation capacity but also for the activation process of new particle formation. This is supposed to have significant impact of atmospheric radical species on aerosol chemistry and should be taken into account when studying the impact of new particles in climate feedback cycles.
Saccharum spontaneum L. is an invasive grass that has spread extensively in disturbed areas throughout the Panama Canal watershed (PCW), where it has created a fire hazard and inhibited reforestation efforts. Currently physical removal of aboveground biomass is the primary means of controlling this weed, which is largely ineffective and does little to inhibit spread of the species. Little is known about reproduction of this species, although it is both rhizomatous and produces abundant seed. Here we report a series of studies looking at some of the basic reproductive mechanisms and strategies utilised by S. spontaneum to provide information to support development of better targeted management strategies. We found that seed produced between September and November was germinable both in the lab and in situ. Genetic diversity of mature stands was assessed using microsatellite markers and found to be high, even at small scales. Studies of vegetative reproduction showed that buds on stems that had been dried for up to six weeks were still capable of sprouting. Separate experiments showed that stem fragments could sprout when left on the surface or buried shallowly and that larger pieces sprouted more readily than smaller pieces. Collectively these results demonstrate that S. spontaneum in the PCW has the capability to produce many propagules that can successfully recruit and it is likely that seed dispersal drives the spread of the species. Timing of management actions to reduce flowering would significantly reduce the seed load into the environment and help to prevent spread to new sites. Similarly, where biomass is cut, cutting stems into smaller pieces will allow the stems to dry out and reduce the ability of buds to sprout. Additionally, attention should be paid to prevent accidental transport to new sites on machinery.
Does austerity pay off?
(2014)
Policy makers often implement austerity measures when the sustainability of public finances is in doubt and, hence, sovereign yield spreads are high. Is austerity successful in bringing about a reduction in yield spreads? We employ a new panel data set which contains sovereign yield spreads for 31 emerging and advanced economies and estimate the effects of cuts of government consumption on yield spreads and economic activity. The conditions under which austerity takes place are crucial. During times of fiscal stress, spreads rise in response to the spending cuts, at least in the short-run. In contrast, austerity pays off, if conditions are more benign.
Emotions-at-risk: an experimental investigation into emotions, option prices and risk perception
(2014)
This paper experimentally investigates how emotions are associated with option prices and risk perception. Using a binary lottery, we find evidence that the emotion ‘surprise’ plays a significant role in the negative correlation between lottery returns and estimates of the price of a put option. Our findings shed new light on various existing theories on emotions and affect. We find gratitude, admiration, and joy to be positively associated with risk perception, although the affect heuristic predicts a negative association. In contrast with the predictions of the appraisal tendency framework (ATF), we document a negative correlation between option price and surprise for lottery winners. Finally, the results show that the option price is not associated with risk perception as commonly used in psychology.
Examination of the type material of the forgotten species Liocranum ochraceum Simon, 1867 reveals this species has to be transferred to the genus Anagraphis comb. nov. and that Anagraphis pallida (Hadjissarantos, 1940) is its junior synonym (syn. nov.). Furthermore, the monotypic genus Macedoniella Drensky, 1935 is a junior synonym of Anagraphis and M. karamani a junior synonym of Anagraphis ochraceum (L. Koch, 1867) (syn. nov.).
Populations of Stegelleta are described from California, New Zealand and Senegal. An amphimictic population from California is identified as belonging to S. incisa and compared with type specimens from Utah and an amphimictic population from Italy. One population from New Zealand is close to S. incisa but considered to represent a new species, Stegelleta laterocornuta sp. nov. It is particularly characterised by a 379–512 μm long body in females and 365–476 μm in males; cuticle divided into 16 rows of blocks at midbody (excluding lateral field); lateral field with four incisures; three pairs of asymmetrical lips, U-shaped primary axils without guarding processes, each lip asymmetrically rectangular with a smooth margin, only lateral lips have slender acute tines; three labial probolae, bifurcated at half of their length; vulva without flap; spermatheca 17–31 μm long; postuterine sac 7–24 μm long; spicules 21.5–23.5 μm long. Other specimens from New Zealand are identified as belonging to S. tuarua. A parthenogenetic population from Senegal is identified as belonging to S. ophioglossa and compared with type specimens from Mongolia and records of several other populations of S. ophioglossa. The generic diagnosis is emended and a key to the species of Stegelleta is provided.
We discuss recent applications of the partonic perturbative QCD based cascade model BAMPS with focus on heavy-ion phenomenology in the hard and soft momentum range. First, the elliptic flow and suppression of charm and bottom quarks are studied at LHC energies. Thereafter, we compare in a detailed study the standard Gunion-Bertsch approximation of the matrix elements for inelastic processes to the exact results in leading order perturbative QCD. Since a disagreement is found, we propose an improved Gunion-Bertsch matrix element, which agrees with the exact result in all phase space regions.
The laser-driven acceleration of protons from thin foils irradiated by hollow high-intensity laser beams in the regime of target normal sheath acceleration is reported for the first time. The use of hollow beams aims at reducing the initial emission solid angle of the TNSA source, due to a flattening of the electron sheath at the target rear side. The experiments were conducted at the PHELIX laser facility at the GSI Helmholtzzentrum für Schwerionenforschung GmbH with laser intensities in the range from 10^18 to 10^20 W/cm^2. We observed an average reduction of the half opening angle by (3.07±0.42)° or (13.2±2)% when the targets have a thickness between 12 to 14 μm. In addition, the highest proton energies were achieved with the hollow laser beam in comparison to the typical Gaussian focal spot.
Tubulin-binding agents such as taxol, vincristine or vinblastine are well-established drugs in clinical treatment of metastatic cancer. However, because of their highly complex chemical structures, the synthesis and hence the supply issues are still quite challenging. Here we set on stage pretubulysin, a chemically accessible precursor of tubulysin that was identified as a potent microtubule-binding agent produced by myxobacteria. Although much simpler in chemical structure, pretubulysin abrogates proliferation and long-term survival as well as anchorage-independent growth, and also induces anoikis and apoptosis in invasive tumor cells equally potent to tubulysin. Moreover, pretubulysin posseses in vivo efficacy shown in a chicken chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) model with T24 bladder tumor cells, in a mouse xenograft model using MDA-MB-231 mammary cancer cells and finally in a model of lung metastasis induced by 4T1 mouse breast cancer cells. Pretubulysin induces cell death via the intrinsic apoptosis pathway by abrogating the expression of pivotal antiapoptotic proteins, namely Mcl-1 and Bcl-xL, and shows distinct chemosensitizing properties in combination with TRAIL in two- and three-dimensional cell culture models. Unraveling the underlying signaling pathways provides novel information: pretubulysin induces proteasomal degradation of Mcl-1 by activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (especially JNK (c-Jun N-terminal kinase)) and phosphorylation of Mcl-1, which is then targeted by the SCF(Fbw7) E3 ubiquitin ligase complex for ubiquitination and degradation. In sum, we designate the microtubule-destabilizing compound pretubulysin as a highly promising novel agent for mono treatment and combinatory treatment of invasive cancer.
Bacteria communicate via small diffusible molecules to mediate group-coordinated behavior, a process designated as quorum sensing. The basic molecular quorum sensing system of Gram-negative bacteria consists of a LuxI-type autoinducer synthase producing acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs) as signaling molecules, and a LuxR-type receptor detecting the AHLs to control expression of specific genes. However, many proteobacteria possess one or more unpaired LuxR-type receptors that lack a cognate LuxI-like synthase, referred to as LuxR solos. The enteric and insect pathogenic bacteria of the genus Photorhabdus harbor an extraordinarily high number of LuxR solos, more than any other known bacteria, and all lack a LuxI-like synthase. Here, we focus on the presence and the different types of LuxR solos in the three known Photorhabdus species using bioinformatics analyses. Generally, the N-terminal signal-binding domain (SBD) of LuxR-type receptors sensing AHLs have a motif of six conserved amino acids that is important for binding and specificity of the signaling molecule. However, this motif is altered in the majority of the Photorhabdus-specific LuxR solos, suggesting the use of other signaling molecules than AHLs. Furthermore, all Photorhabdus species contain at least one LuxR solo with an intact AHL-binding motif, which might allow the ability to sense AHLs of other bacteria. Moreover, all three species have high AHL-degrading activity caused by the presence of different AHL-lactonases and AHL-acylases, revealing a high quorum quenching activity against other bacteria. However, the majority of the other LuxR solos in Photorhabdus have a N-terminal so-called PAS4-domain instead of an AHL-binding domain, containing different amino acid motifs than the AHL-sensors, which potentially allows the recognition of a highly variable range of signaling molecules that can be sensed apart from AHLs. These PAS4-LuxR solos are proposed to be involved in host sensing, and therefore in inter-kingdom signaling. Overall, Photorhabdus species are perfect model organisms to study bacterial communication via LuxR solos and their role for a symbiotic and pathogenic life style.
We analyze the implications of the structure of a network for asset prices in a general equilibrium model. Networks are represented via self- and mutually exciting jump processes, and the representative agent has Epstein-Zin preferences. Our approach provides a exible and tractable unifying foundation for asset pricing in networks. The model endogenously generates results in accordance with, e.g., the robust-yetfragile feature of financial networks shown in Acemoglu, Ozdaglar, and Tahbaz-Salehi (2014) and the positive centrality premium documented in Ahern (2013). We also show that models with simpler preference assumptions cannot generate all these findings simultaneously.
There has been a considerable debate about whether disaster models can rationalize the equity premium puzzle. This is because empirically disasters are not single extreme events, but long-lasting periods in which moderate negative consumption growth realizations cluster. Our paper proposes a novel way to explain this stylized fact. By allowing for consumption drops that can spark an economic crisis, we introduce a new economic channel that combines long-run and short-run risk. First, we document that our model can match consumption data of several countries. Second, it generates a large equity risk premium even if consumption drops are of moderate size.
We study the equilibrium properties of strongly-interacting infinite parton-hadron matter, characterized by the transport coefficients such as shear and bulk viscosity and electric conductivity, and the non-equilibrium dynamics of heavy-ion collisions within the Parton-Hadron-String Dynamics (PHSD) transport approach, which incorporates explicit partonic degrees of freedom in terms of strongly interacting quasiparticles (quarks and gluons) in line with an equation of state from lattice QCD as well as the dynamical hadronization and hadronic collision dynamics in the final reaction phase. We discuss in particular the possible origin for the strong elliptic flow v2 of direct photons observed at RHIC energies.
Two new species and one subspecies of Pharnaciini, belonging to two different genera, are described from Vietnam: one species and subspecies of Phryganistria Stål, 1875 and one species of Phobaeticus Brunner von Wattenwyl, 1907. Two species currently attributed to the genus Ramulus Saussure, 1862, Ramulus magnus (Brunner von Wattenwyl, 1907) and R. chinensis (Brunner von Wattenwyl, 1907), are transferred to Baculonistria Hennemann & Conle, 2008 comb. nov. Phobaeticus longicornis Bi & Wang, 1998 and Phobaeticus yuexiensis Chen & He, 1993 represent the male and female of Baculonistria magnus (Brunner von Wattenwyl, 1907) syn. nov. A lectotype is designated for Baculonistria chinensis (Brunner von Wattenwyl, 1907). The genus Baculonistria now contains three species. Nearchus bachmaensis Ta & Hoang, 2004 is transferred to Phryganistria and the new combination Phryganistria bachmaensis (Ta & Hoang, 2004) comb. nov. is proposed. The species is redescribed and the authors’ attribution corrected, the egg is described and figured for the first time.
Phryganistria tamdaoensis sp. nov. is described and figured from both sexes and the egg. Females of P. tamdaoensis sp. nov. are easily recognised by the conspicuously enlarged lanceolate cerci, a character previously unknown in this tribe. The distribution range of Phryganistria heusii heusii (Hennemann & Conle, 1997) is extended to Tam Dao National Park. A new subspecies Phryganistria heusii yentuensis subsp. nov. is described from Tay Yen Tu Nature Reserve from adult males and females and the eggs. Males can easily be distinguished from the nominal subspecies by their colouration. This huge subspecies represents the second longest insect recorded to date. A key to the species of the genus Phryganistria is provided. Phobaeticus trui sp. nov. is described from central Vietnam. It is the first species of Phobaeticus recorded from Vietnam. Adults of both sexes are illustrated.
A third Supplement to the 1992 Catalog of the Scolytidae and Platypodidae (Coleoptera) of the World (Wood and Bright 1992) is presented. This Supplement updates the taxonomy, distribution, and biology pertaining to these families of Coleoptera from 2000 to the end of 2010. A few 2011 taxonomic references are included in order to make the nomenclature as current as possible. The format of this Supplement differs slightly from the format of the original 1992 Catalog and the two previous Supplements. Only references relating to general biology, systematics and distribution were selected to be included. Tribal arrangement follows the scheme established in the 1992 World Catalog, with additions. Each genus is listed alphabetically under the current tribe and the species are listed alphabetically under the current genus. Additional information on figures, distribution, hosts, and references relating to the above are given. The bibliography used with this Supplement lists 580 references, most published from 2000 to the end of 2010. New synonymy proposed: Phloeotribus carinatus Burgos and Equihua, 2003 (= Phloeotribus ebeneus Wood, 2007). New combinations proposed: Phloeosinus kinabaluensis Bright to Hyledius; Phloeosinus phyllocladus Bright to Hyledius.
An argument is made for the retention of the family status of the Scolytidae and Platypodidae as members of the superfamily Curculionoidea. A new subfamily and tribal arrangement is proposed: SCOLYTIDAE comprising 13 subfamilies, Hylesininae, with 12 tribes, Hyorrhynchinae, with one tribe; Scolytinae, with one tribe; Hexacolinae, with one tribe; Cylindrobrotinae, with one tribe; Scolytoplatypodinae, with one tribe; Cactopininae, with one tribe; Carphodicticinae, with one tribe; Micracidinae, with one tribe; Crypturginae, with one tribe; Ipinae, with six tribes; Cryphalinae, with one tribe and Corthylinae, with two tribes and PLATYPODIDAE comprising three subfamilies, Coptonotinae, with three tribes; Tesserocerinae, with two tribes and Platypodinae, with one tribe.
It is common practice to use a 30-year period to derive climatological values, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. However this convention relies on important assumptions, of which the validity can be examined by deriving the uncertainty inherent to using a limited time-period for deriving climatological values. In this study a new method, aiming at deriving this uncertainty, has been developed with an application to precipitation for a station in Europe (Westdorpe) and one in Africa (Gulu). The weather generator framework is used to produce synthetic daily precipitation time-series that can also be regarded as alternative climate realizations. The framework consists of an improved Markov model, which shows good performance in reproducing the 5-day precipitation variability. The sub-seasonal, seasonal and the inter-annual signals are introduced in the weather generator framework by including covariates. These covariates are derived from an empirical mode decomposition analysis with an improved stability and significance assessment. Introducing covariates was found to substantially improve the monthly precipitation variability for Gulu. From the weather generator, 1,000 synthetic time-series were produced. The divergence between these time-series demonstrates an uncertainty, inherent to using a 30-year period for mean precipitation, of 11 % for Westdorpe and 15 % for Gulu. The uncertainty for precipitation 10-year return levels was found to be 37 % for both sites.