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Der Prozess der europäischen Integration wirkt zunehmend auf die Gestaltung der Gesundheitssysteme der Mitgliedstaaten ein. Die von der Kommission und dem EuGH vorangetriebene Anwendung des europäischen Binnenmarkt- und Wettbewerbsrechts auf die Gesundheitspolitik hat zur Folge, dass marktlichen Steuerungsprinzipien ein Primat gegenüber staatlicher und korporatistischer Regulierung eingeräumt wird. Die gesundheitspolitische Gestaltungskompetenz liegt bei den Mitgliedstaaten, diese haben jedoch die „vier Freiheiten“ bzw. das europäische Wettbewerbsrecht zu beachten. Das Prinzip der Solidarität spielt in den europäischen Verträgen dagegen nur eine untergeordnete Rolle. Solidarität erscheint im europäischen Diskurs als ein Wert, der für die Europäische Union einen wichtigen Bezugspunkt darstellt, ohne dass er eine rechtlich verbindliche Form erhalten hat. Im Resultat entscheidet daher die Auslegung des Solidaritätsprinzips durch den Gerichtshof darüber, ob solidarische Elemente in der nationalen Gesundheitspolitik mit dem europäischen Recht vereinbar sind. Dieser Mechanismus beruht nicht auf demokratisch organisierten Meinungs- und Willensbildungsprozessen, sondern ist Gegenstand schwer prognostizierbarer richterlicher Interpretationskunst.
The impact of European integration on the German system of pharmaceutical product authorization
(2008)
The European Union has evolved since 1965 into an influential political player in the regulation of pharmaceutical safety standards. The objective of establishing a single European market for pharmaceuticals makes it necessary for member-states to adopt uniform safety standards and marketing authorization procedures. This article investigates the impact of the European integration process on the German marketing authorization system for pharmaceuticals. The analysis shows that the main focal points and objectives of European regulation of pharmaceutical safety have shifted since 1965. The initial phase saw the introduction of uniform European safety standards as a result of which Germany was obliged to undertake “catch-up” modernization. From the mid-1970s, these standards were extended and specified in greater detail. Since the mid-1990s, a process of reorientation has been under way. The formation of the European Agency for the Evaluation of Medicinal Products (EMEA) and the growing importance of the European authorization procedure, combined with intensified global competition on pharmaceutical markets, are exerting indirect pressure for EU member-states to adjust their medicines policies. Consequently, over the past few years Germany has been engaged in a competition-oriented reorganization of its pharmaceutical product authorization system the outcome of which will be to give higher priority to economic interests.
Die Bundesregierung plant mit dem „Gesetz zur Begrenzung der mit Finanzinvestitionen verbundenen Risiken“ (Risikobegrenzungsgesetz), das derzeit als Regierungsentwurf vorliegt, gesamtwirtschaftlich unerwünschte Aktivitäten von Finanzinvestoren zu erschweren oder zu verhindern. Dabei sollen Finanz- oder Unternehmenstransaktionen, die effizienzfördernd wirken, unbeeinträchtigt bleiben. Inwieweit der RegE-Risikobegrenzungsgesetz dieses selbstgesetzte Ziel erreichen wird, ist derzeit nicht absehbar. Absehbar ist hingegen, dass die im RegE-Risikobegrenzungsgesetz enthaltene neue übernahmerechtliche Regel für das sog. „acting in concert“ in einen Konflikt mit dem Gemeinschaftsrecht gerät. Diesen Konflikt und seine Gründe zeigt der Beitrag auf. Dazu wird in Teil A. zunächst der neue Tatbestand vorgestellt und sodann unter B. seine Vereinbarkeit mit der Übernahmerichtlinie (I.) sowie mit der Kapitalverkehrsfreiheit (II.) untersucht. Unter C. werden die Ergebnisse zusammengefasst.
This paper proves several generic variants of context lemmas and thus contributes to improving the tools for observational semantics of deterministic and non-deterministic higher-order calculi that use a small-step reduction semantics. The generic (sharing) context lemmas are provided for may- as well as two variants of must-convergence, which hold in a broad class of extended process- and extended lambda calculi, if the calculi satisfy certain natural conditions. As a guide-line, the proofs of the context lemmas are valid in call-by-need calculi, in callby-value calculi if substitution is restricted to variable-by-variable and in process calculi like variants of the π-calculus. For calculi employing beta-reduction using a call-by-name or call-by-value strategy or similar reduction rules, some iu-variants of ciu-theorems are obtained from our context lemmas. Our results reestablish several context lemmas already proved in the literature, and also provide some new context lemmas as well as some new variants of the ciu-theorem. To make the results widely applicable, we use a higher-order abstract syntax that allows untyped calculi as well as certain simple typing schemes. The approach may lead to a unifying view of higher-order calculi, reduction, and observational equality.
We show on an abstract level that contextual equivalence in non-deterministic program calculi defined by may- and must-convergence is maximal in the following sense. Using also all the test predicates generated by the Boolean, forall- and existential closure of may- and must-convergence does not change the contextual equivalence. The situation is different if may- and total must-convergence is used, where an expression totally must-converges if all reductions are finite and terminate with a value: There is an infinite sequence of test-predicates generated by the Boolean, forall- and existential closure of may- and total must-convergence, which also leads to an infinite sequence of different contextual equalities.
We investigate methods and tools for analyzing translations between programming languages with respect to observational semantics. The behavior of programs is observed in terms of may- and mustconvergence in arbitrary contexts, and adequacy of translations, i.e., the reflection of program equivalence, is taken to be the fundamental correctness condition. For compositional translations we propose a notion of convergence equivalence as a means for proving adequacy. This technique avoids explicit reasoning about contexts, and is able to deal with the subtle role of typing in implementations of language extensions.
We investigate methods and tools for analysing translations between programming languages with respect to observational semantics. The behaviour of programs is observed in terms of may- and mustconvergence in arbitrary contexts, and adequacy of translations, i.e., the reflection of program equivalence, is taken to be the fundamental correctness condition. For compositional translations we propose a notion of convergence equivalence as a means for proving adequacy. This technique avoids explicit reasoning about contexts, and is able to deal with the subtle role of typing in implementations of language extensions.
We investigate methods and tools for analysing translations between programming languages with respect to observational semantics. The behaviour of programs is observed in terms of may- and mustconvergence in arbitrary contexts, and adequacy of translations, i.e., the reflection of program equivalence, is taken to be the fundamental correctness condition. For compositional translations we propose a notion of convergence equivalence as a means for proving adequacy. This technique avoids explicit reasoning about contexts, and is able to deal with the subtle role of typing in implementations of language extensions.
We investigate methods and tools for analysing translations between programming languages with respect to observational semantics. The behaviour of programs is observed in terms of may- and must-convergence in arbitrary contexts, and adequacy of translations, i.e., the reflection of program equivalence, is taken to be the fundamental correctness condition. For compositional translations we propose a notion of convergence equivalence as a means for proving adequacy. This technique avoids explicit reasoning about contexts, and is able to deal with the subtle role of typing in implementations of language extension.
The paper proposes a variation of simulation for checking and proving contextual equivalence in a non-deterministic call-by-need lambda-calculus with constructors, case, seq, and a letrec with cyclic dependencies. It also proposes a novel method to prove its correctness. The calculus' semantics is based on a small-step rewrite semantics and on may-convergence. The cyclic nature of letrec bindings, as well as non-determinism, makes known approaches to prove that simulation implies contextual equivalence, such as Howe's proof technique, inapplicable in this setting. The basic technique for the simulation as well as the correctness proof is called pre-evaluation, which computes a set of answers for every closed expression. If simulation succeeds in finite computation depth, then it is guaranteed to show contextual preorder of expressions.
This paper discusses the so-called commercial approach to microfinance under economic and ethical aspects. It first shows how microfinance has developed from a purely welfare-oriented activity to a commercially relevant line of banking business. The background of this stunning success is the – almost universal – adoption of the so-called commercial approach to microfinance in the course of the last decade. As the author argues, this commercial approach is the only sound approach to adopt if one wanted microfinance to have any social and developmental impact, and therefore the wide-spread “moralistic” criticism of the commercial approach, which has again and again been expressed in the 1990s, is ill-placed from an economic and an ethical perspective. However, some recent events in microfinance raise doubts as to whether the commercial approach has not, in a number of cases, gone too far. The evident example for such a development is the Mexican microfinance institution Compartamos, which recently undertook a financially extremely successful IPO. As it seems, some microfinance institutions have by now become so radically commercial that all of those social and development considerations, which have traditionally motivated work in the field of microfinance, seem to have lost their importance. Thus there is a conflict between commercial and developmental aspirations. However, this conflict is not inevitable. The paper concludes by showing that, and how, a microfinance institution can try to combine using the strengths of the capital market and at the same time maintaining its developmental focus and importance.
Der Referentenentwurf eines Gesetzes zur Umsetzung der Aktionärsrechterichtlinie (ARUG), der am 6. Mai 2008 der Öffentlichkeit zugeleitet wurde, bringt einige lang erwartete und vorab in der Literatur viel diskutierte Neuerungen des Aktiengesetzes. Anlass für den Entwurf ist die Umsetzung der Richtlinie 2007/36/EG vom 11. Juli 2007 über die Ausübung bestimmter Rechte von Aktionären in börsennotierten Gesellschaften (sog. Aktionärsrechterichtlinie).2 Dem Ziel der Richtlinie folgend soll die grenzüberschreitende Ausübung von Aktionärsrechten erleichtert werden; dies betrifft vor allem die Möglichkeiten der Online-Teilnahme an der Hauptversammlung und die Kommunikation mit den Aktionären im Vorfeld der Hauptversammlung. Darüber hinaus wird die Richtlinienumsetzung vom deutschen Gesetzgeber zum Anlass genommen, das Aktienrecht noch in einigen weiteren Punkten zu ändern. So wird das Depotstimmrecht der Kreditinstitute weiter dereguliert und die Festsetzung eines Mindestbetrages bei Wandelschuldverschreibungen ermöglicht. Die Werthaltigkeitsprüfung bei Sacheinlagen im Rahmen von Gründungen und Kapitalerhöhungen wird eingeschränkt; damit werden einige Optionen der durch die Richtlinie 2006/68/EG3 geänderten Kapitalrichtlinie4 umgesetzt. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt des Referentenentwurfs liegt auf der Konkretisierung der aktien-, umwandlungs- und konzernrechtlichen Freigabeverfahren, durch welche missbräuchliche Aktionärsklagen weiter eingedämmt werden sollen.
We present a higher-order call-by-need lambda calculus enriched with constructors, case-expressions, recursive letrec-expressions, a seq-operator for sequential evaluation and a non-deterministic operator amb that is locally bottom-avoiding. We use a small-step operational semantics in form of a single-step rewriting system that defines a (nondeterministic) normal order reduction. This strategy can be made fair by adding resources for bookkeeping. As equational theory we use contextual equivalence, i.e. terms are equal if plugged into any program context their termination behaviour is the same, where we use a combination of may- as well as must-convergence, which is appropriate for non-deterministic computations. We show that we can drop the fairness condition for equational reasoning, since the valid equations w.r.t. normal order reduction are the same as for fair normal order reduction. We evolve different proof tools for proving correctness of program transformations, in particular, a context lemma for may- as well as mustconvergence is proved, which restricts the number of contexts that need to be examined for proving contextual equivalence. In combination with so-called complete sets of commuting and forking diagrams we show that all the deterministic reduction rules and also some additional transformations preserve contextual equivalence.We also prove a standardisation theorem for fair normal order reduction. The structure of the ordering <=c a is also analysed: Ω is not a least element, and <=c already implies contextual equivalence w.r.t. may-convergence.
Ce texte s’est voulu une brève présentation des tons phonologiques qu’on rencontre dans les langues bantoues parlées au Gabon. L’élément nouveau ici par rapport à ce que l’on sait de l'analyse de la tonalité des langues bantoues en général, c’est la prise en compte de l'intonation dans l'explication de certaines modifications tonales du niveau lexical dont les tons lexicaux (fixes ou flottants) ne peuvent pas rendre compte.
Sowohl die Diversifikation als auch die Fokussierung von Unternehmensaktivitäten werden häufig mit der Maximierung des Unternehmenswertes begründet. Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen auf den Aktienkurs für 184 Akquisitionen sowie 139 Desinvestitionen deutscher Konzerne im Zeitraum von 1996-2005. Unternehmensdiversifikationen üben, entgegen der oft geäußerten Kritik, keinen signifikant negativen Einfluss auf den Marktwert aus. Fokussierende Unternehmensakquisitionen hingegen sind mit einem signifikanten Wertaufschlag verbunden. Der Verkauf von Unternehmensteilen führt generell zu einer Marktwertsteigerung. Dabei führen Abspaltungen außerhalb des Kerngeschäfts zu einer – allerdings insignifikant – höheren Wertsteigerung als Desinvestitionen von Kerngeschäftsaktivitäten. Statt eines systematischen Diversifikationsabschlags finden wir somit einen „Fokussierungsaufschlag“ für den deutschen Markt.
n the last few years, many of the world’s largest financial exchanges have converted from mutual, not-for-profit organizations to publicly-traded, for-profit firms. In most cases, these exchanges have substantial responsibilities with respect to enforcing various regulations that protect investors from dishonest agents. We examine how the incentives to enforce such regulations change as an exchange converts from mutual to for-profit status. In contrast to oft-stated concerns, we find that, in many circumstances, an exchange that maximizes shareholder (rather than member) income has a greater incentive to aggressively enforce these types of regulations.
Zur Offenlegung von Abfindungszahlungen und Pensionszusagen an ein ausgeschiedenes Vorstandsmitglied
(2008)
Abfindungszahlungen und Pensionszusagen gehören zu den besonders umstrittenen Bestandteilen der Vorstandsvergütung. Der deutsche Gesetzgeber ist mit dem Gesetz über die Offenlegung von Vorstandsvergütungen (VorstOG) der internationalen Entwicklung gefolgt. Bereits Ziff. 4.2.4 DCGK a.F. hatte die individualisierte Offenlegung der Bezüge aktueller Vorstandsmitglieder empfohlen. In Frankreich wurde bereits 2001 die Pflicht zur Offenlegung von Vorstandsgehältern in den Art. L. 225-102-1 des Code de commerce aufgenommen. Aktuell beschäftigt sich das französische Parlament mit dem Gesetz „Croissance, emploi et pouvoir d’achat: modernisation de l’économie“, das bei Vereinbarungen von Abfindungen einen Hauptversammlungsbeschluss notwendig machen würde. In England sind die Bezüge der „Directors“ in einem Remuneration Report offenzulegen (Sec. 420 CA 2006). Vorreiter auf dem Gebiet der Offenlegungspflicht waren die Vereinigten Staaten, die seit 1992 eine individualisierte Offenlegung vorschreiben. Auch die Europäische Kommission hat sich für die Pflicht zur individualisierten Offenlegung ausgesprochen. Im Mittelpunkt der Diskussion steht insbesondere die Frage der Offenlegung der Abfindungs- und Pensionszusagen. Scheidet ein Vorstandsmitglied vorzeitig aus, hat es grundsätzlich einen Vergütungsanspruch bis zur Beendigung seines Anstellungsvertrags, außer wenn der Aufsichtsrat ihm aus wichtigem Grund gekündigt hat. In der Regel werden aber mit dem Vorstandsmitglied Abfindungsvereinbarungen getroffen. Neben den Abfindungsvereinbarungen spielen auch die Pensions- und Versorgungszusagen in der Praxis eine wichtige Rolle. Mit Blick auf den Wortlaut des § 285 HGB stellt sich, auch zwei Jahre nach Inkrafttreten des VorstOG, immer noch die Frage, ob bei börsennotierten Aktiengesellschaften die Abfindungszahlungen und Pensionszusagen individualisiert oder nur aggregiert offenzulegen sind. Fraglich ist zum einen, wie eine vereinbarte Abfindungszahlung im Lagebericht bei der Angabe der Vorstandsbezüge zu behandeln ist, wenn ein Vorstandsmitglied vorzeitig ausscheidet (III.). Zum anderen stellt sich die Frage, wie Pensionszusagen darzustellen sind (IV.). Bevor auf diese beiden Fragen eingegangen werden kann, soll kurz der gesetzliche Rahmen der Offenlegungspflicht skizziert werden (II.). ...
A data set of monthly growing areas of 26 irrigated crops (MGAG-I) and related crop calendars (CC-I) was compiled for 402 spatial entities. The selection of the crops consisted of all major food crops including regionally important ones (wheat, rice, maize, barley, rye, millet, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower, potatoes, cassava, sugar cane, sugar beets, oil palm, rapeseed/canola, groundnuts/peanuts, pulses, citrus, date palm, grapes/vine, cocoa, coffee), major water-consuming crops (cotton), and unspecified other crops (other perennial crops, other annual crops, managed grassland). The data set refers to the time period 1998-2002 and has a spatial resolution of 5 arc minutes by 5 arc minutes which is 8 km by 8 km at the equator. This is the first time that a data set of cell-specific irrigated growing areas of irrigated crops with this spatial resolution was created. The data set is consistent to the irrigated area and water use statistics of the AQUASTAT programme of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/main/index.stm) and the Global Map of Irrigation Areas (GMIA) (http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/irrigationmap/index.stm). At the cell-level it was tried to maximise consistency to the cropland extent and cropland harvested area from the Department of Geography and Earth System Science Program of the McGill University at Montreal, Quebec, Canada and the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) of the University of Wisconsin at Madison, USA (http://www.geog.mcgill.ca/~nramankutty/ Datasets/Datasets.html and http://geomatics.geog.mcgill.ca/~navin/pub/Data/175crops2000/). The consistency between the grid product and the input data was quantified. MGAG-I and CC-I are fully consistent to each other on entity level. For input data other than CC-I, the consistency of MGAG-I on cell level was calculated. The consistency of MGAG-I with respect to the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) of GMIA and to the cropland extent of SAGE was characterised by the sum of the cell-specific maximum difference between the MGAG-I monthly total irrigated area and the reference area when the latter was exceeded in the grid cell. The consistency of the harvested area contained in MGAG-I with respect to SAGE harvested area was characterised by the crop-specific sum of the cell-specific difference between MGAG-I harvested area and the SAGE harvested area when the latter was exceeded in the grid cell. In all three cases, the sums are the excess areas that should not have been distributed under the assumption that the input data were correct. Globally, this cell-level excess of MGAG-I as compared to AEI is 331,304 ha or only about 0.12 % of the global AEI of 278.9 Mha found in the original grid. The respective cell-level excess of MGAG-I as compared to the SAGE cropland extent is 32.2 Mha, corresponding to about 2.2 % of the total cropland area. The respective cell-level excess of MGAG-I as compared to the SAGE harvested area is 27 % of the irrigated harvested area, or 11.5 % of the AEI. In a further step that will be published later also rainfed areas were compiled in order to form the Global data set of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000). The data set can be used for global and continental-scale studies on food security and water use. In the future, it will be improved, e.g. with a better spatial resolution of crop calendars and an improved crop distribution algorithm. The MIRCA2000 data set, its full documentation together with future updates will be freely available through the following long-term internet site: http://www.geo.uni-frankfurt.de/ipg/ag/dl/forschung/MIRCA/index.html. The research presented here was funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) within the framework of the research project entitled "Consistent assessment of global green, blue and virtual water fluxes in the context of food production: regional stresses and worldwide teleconnections". The authors thank Navin Ramankutty and Chad Monfreda for making available the current SAGE datasets on cropland extent (Ramankutty et al., 2008) and harvested area (Monfreda et al., 2008) prior to their publication.
The execution, clearing, and settlement of financial transactions are all subject to substantial scale and scope economies which make each of these complementary functions a natural monopoly. Integration of trade, execution, and settlement in an exchange improves efficiency by economizing on transactions costs. When scope economies in clearing are more extensive than those in execution, integration is more costly, and efficient organization involves a trade-off of scope economies and transactions costs. A properly organized clearing cooperative can eliminate double marginalization problems and exploit scope economies, but can result in opportunism and underinvestment. Moreover, a clearing cooperative may exercise market power. Vertical integration and tying can foreclose entry, but foreclosure can be efficient because market power rents attract excessive entry. Integration of trading and post-trade services is the modal form of organization in financial markets, which is consistent with the hypothesis that transactional efficiencies explain organizational arrangements in these markets.
Central counterparties (CCPs) have increasingly become a cornerstone of financial markets infrastructure. We present a model where trades are time-critical, liquidity is limited and there is limited enforcement of trades. We show a CCP novating trades implements efficient trading behaviour. It is optimal for the CCP to face default losses to achieve the efficient level of trade. To cover these losses, the CCP optimally uses margin calls, and, as the default problem becomes more severe, also requires default funds and then imposes position limits.
Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules-of-thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy to historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes where policy may have deviated from a simple rule and examination of the reasons behind such deviations. One interesting question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers "forecasts of key variables such as inflation and unemployment or on observed outcomes. Importantly, deviations of the policy from the prescriptions of a Taylor rule that relies on outcomes may be due to systematic responses to information captured in policymakers" own projections. We investigate this proposition in the context of FOMC policy decisions over the past 20 years using publicly available FOMC projections from the biannual monetary policy reports to the Congress (Humphrey-Hawkins reports). Our results indicate that FOMC decisions can indeed be predominantly explained in terms of the FOMC´s own projections rather than observed outcomes. Thus, a forecast-based rule-of-thumb better characterizes FOMC decision-making. We also confirm that many of the apparent deviations of the federal funds rate from an outcome-based Taylor-style rule may be considered systematic responses to information contained in FOMC projections.
CONTENTS Preamble 1. Concept and Drivers of Globalization 1.0 A Brief Historical Perspective 1.1 Concept of Globalization 1.2 Economic Globalization 1.3 Drivers of Economic Globalization 2. Globalization and Markets 2.1 The Free Market System 2.2 Markets and the Solution of Economic Problems 2.3 African Markets and “Getting the Prices Right”. 2.4 Implications of the Imperfect Market System 2.5 Government’s Inevitable Role 2.6 The International Environment/Markets 3. Globalization and Trade Liberalisation 3.1 The Experience of the Developing Countries 3.2 Nigeria’s Experience with Trade Liberalisation 4. Global Economic Integration and Sub-Saharan Africa 4.1 Global Economic Integration 4.2 Africa’s Integration with the World Economy 4.3 The Benefits of Economic Globalization and Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 Why has Africa Lagged? 5. Nigeria and the Global Economy 5.1 Openness of the Economy and Integration with the World Economy 5.2 Globalization and Nigeria’s Trade 5.3 Globalization and Foreign Capital Flows to Nigeria 5.4 Foreign Capital Flows and Debt Accumulation 5.5 Globalization, Growth and Development 6. Appropriate Policy Responses and Lessons 7. Concluding Remarks 8. Appreciation 9. Annex 10. References
While companies have emerged as very proactive donors in the wake of recent major disasters like Hurricane Katrina, it remains unclear whether that corporate generosity generates benefits to firms themselves. The literature on strategic philanthropy suggests that such philanthropic behavior may be valuable because it can generate direct and indirect benefits to the firm, yet it is not known whether investors interpret donations in this way. We develop hypotheses linking the strategic character of donations to positive abnormal returns. Using event study methodology, we investigate stock market reactions to corporate donation announcements by 108 US firms made in response to Hurricane Katrina. We then use regression analysis to examine if our hypothesized predictors are associated with positive abnormal returns. Our results show that overall, corporate donations were linked to neither positive nor negative abnormal returns. We do, however, see that a number of factors moderate the relationship between donation announcements and abnormal stock returns. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.
When a spot market monopolist participates in a derivatives market, she has an incentive to deviate from the spot market monopoly optimum to make her derivatives market position more profitable. When contracts can only be written contingent on the spot price, a risk-averse monopolist chooses to participate in the derivatives market to hedge her risk, and she reduces expected profits by doing so. However, eliminating all risk is impossible. These results are independent of the shape of the demand function, the distribution of demand shocks, the nature of preferences or the set of derivatives contracts.
We show that the use of correlations for modeling dependencies may lead to counterintuitive behavior of risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Short- fall (ES), when the risk of very rare events is assessed via Monte-Carlo techniques. The phenomenon is demonstrated for mixture models adapted from credit risk analysis as well as for common Poisson-shock models used in reliability theory. An obvious implication of this finding pertains to the analysis of operational risk. The alleged incentive suggested by the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II), amely decreasing minimum capital requirements by allowing for less than perfect correlation, may not necessarily be attainable.
Macro announcements change the equilibrium riskfree rate. We find that treasury prices reflect part of the impact instantaneously, but intermediaries rely on their customer order flow in the 15 minutes after the announcement to discover the full impact. We show that this customer flow informativeness is strongest at times when analyst forecasts of macro variables are highly dispersed. We study 30 year treasury futures to identify the customer flow. We further show that intermediaries appear to benefit from privately recognizing informed customer flow, as, in the cross-section, their own-account trade profitability correlates with access to customer orders, controlling for volatility, competition, and the announcement surprise. These results suggest that intermediaries learn about equilibrium riskfree rates through customer orders.
Many older US households have done little or no planning for retirement, and there is a substantial population that seems to undersave for retirement. Of particular concern is the relative position of older women, who are more vulnerable to old-age poverty due to their longer longevity. This paper uses data from a special module we devised on planning and financial literacy in the 2004 Health and Retirement Study. It shows that women display much lower levels of financial literacy than the older population as a whole. In addition, women who are less financially literate are also less likely to plan for retirement and be successful planners. These findings have important implications for policy and for programs aimed at fostering financial security at older ages.
Increasingly, individuals are in charge of their own financial security and are confronted with ever more complex financial instruments. However, there is evidence that many individuals are not well-equipped to make sound saving decisions. This paper demonstrates widespread financial illiteracy among the U.S. population, particularly among specific demographic groups. Those with low education, women, African-Americans, and Hispanics display particularly low levels of literacy. Financial literacy impacts financial decision-making. Failure to plan for retirement, lack of participation in the stock market, and poor borrowing behavior can all be linked to ignorance of basic financial concepts. While financial education programs can result in improved saving behavior and financial decision-making, much can be done to improve these programs’ effectiveness.
We study the effect of randomness in the adversarial queueing model. All proofs of instability for deterministic queueing strategies exploit a finespun strategy of insertions by an adversary. If the local queueing decisions in the network are subject to randomness, it is far from obvious, that an adversary can still trick the network into instability. We show that uniform queueing is unstable even against an oblivious adversary. Consequently, randomizing the queueing decisions made to operate a network is not in itself a suitable fix for poor network performances due to packet pileups.
The paper provides novel insights on the effect of a firm’s risk management objective on the optimal design of risk transfer instruments. I analyze the interrelation between the structure of the optimal insurance contract and the firm’s objective to minimize the required equity it has to hold to accommodate losses in the presence of multiple risks and moral hazard. In contrast to the case of risk aversion and moral hazard, the optimal insurance contract involves a joint deductible on aggregate losses in the present setting.
The paper proposes a panel cointegration analysis of the joint development of government expenditures and economic growth in 23 OECD countries. The empirical evidence provides indication of a structural positive correlation between public spending and per-capita GDP which is consistent with the so-called Wagner´s law. A long-run elasticity larger than one suggests a more than proportional increase of government expenditures with respect to economic activity. In addition, according to the spirit of the law, we found that the correlation is usually higher in countries with lower per-capita GDP, suggesting that the catching-up period is characterized by a stronger development of government activities with respect to economies in a more advanced state of development.
Do we measure what we get?
(2008)
Performance measures shall enhance the performance of companies by directing the attention of decision makers towards the achievement of organizational goals. Therefore, goal congruence is regarded in literature as a major factor in the quality of such measures. As reality is affected by many variables, in practice one has tried to achieve a high degree of goal congruence by incorporating an increasing number of these variables into performance measures. However, a goal congruent measure does not lead automatically to superior decisions, because decision makers’ restricted cognitive abilities can counteract the intended effects. This paper addresses the interplay between goal congruence and complexity of performance measures considering cognitively-restricted decision makers. Two types of decision quality are derived which allow a differentiated view on the influence of this interplay on decision quality and learning. The simulation experiments based on this differentiation provide results which allow a critical reflection on costs and benefits of goal congruence and the assumptions regarding the goal congruence of incentive systems.
This study develops a novel 2-step hedonic approach, which is used to construct a price index for German paintings. This approach enables the researcher to use every single auction record, instead of only those auction records that belong to a sub-sample of selected artists. This results in a substantially larger sample available for research and it lowers the selection bias that is inherent in the traditional hedonic and repeat sales methodologies. Using a unique sample of 61,135 auction records for German artworks created by 5,115 different artists over the period 1985 to 2007, we find that the geometric annual return on German art is just 3.8 percent, with a standard deviation of 17.87 percent. Although our results indicate that art underperforms the market portfolio and is not proportionally rewarded for downside risk, under some circumstances art should be included in an optimal portfolio for diversification purposes.
Risk transfer with CDOs
(2008)
Modern bank management comprises both classical lending business and transfer of asset risk to capital markets through securitization. Sound knowledge of the risks involved in securitization transactions is a prerequisite for solid risk management. This paper aims to resolve a part of the opaqueness surrounding credit-risk allocation to tranches that represent claims of different seniority on a reference portfolio. In particular, this paper analyzes the allocation of credit risk to different tranches of a CDO transaction when the underlying asset returns are driven by a common macro factor and an idiosyncratic component. Junior and senior tranches are found to be nearly orthogonal, motivating a search for the whereabout of systematic risk in CDO transactions. We propose a metric for capturing the allocation of systematic risk to tranches. First, in contrast to a widely-held claim, we show that (extreme) tail risk in standard CDO transactions is held by all tranches. While junior tranches take on all types of systematic risk, senior tranches take on almost no non-tail risk. This is in stark contrast to an untranched bond portfolio of the same rating quality, which on average suffers substantial losses for all realizations of the macro factor. Second, given tranching, a shock to the risk of the underlying asset portfolio (e.g. a rise in asset correlation or in mean portfolio loss) has the strongest impact, in relative terms, on the exposure of senior tranche CDO-investors. Our findings can be used to explain major stylized facts observed in credit markets.
Risk transfer with CDOs
(2008)
Modern bank management comprises both classical lending business and transfer of asset risk to capital markets through securitization. Sound knowledge of the risks involved in securitization transactions is a prerequisite for solid risk management. This paper aims to resolve a part of the opaqueness surrounding credit-risk allocation to tranches that represent claims of different seniority on a reference portfolio. In particular, this paper analyzes the allocation of credit risk to different tranches of a CDO transaction when the underlying asset returns are driven by a common macro factor and an idiosyncratic component. Junior and senior tranches are found to be nearly orthogonal, motivating a search for the where about of systematic risk in CDO transactions. We propose a metric for capturing the allocation of systematic risk to tranches. First, in contrast to a widely-held claim, we show that (extreme) tail risk in standard CDO transactions is held by all tranches. While junior tranches take on all types of systematic risk, senior tranches take on almost no non-tail risk. This is in stark contrast to an untranched bond portfolio of the same rating quality, which on average suffers substantial losses for all realizations of the macro factor. Second, given tranching, a shock to the risk of the underlying asset portfolio (e.g. a rise in asset correlation or in mean portfolio loss) has the strongest impact, in relative terms, on the exposure of senior tranche CDO-investors. Our findings can be used to explain major stylized facts observed in credit markets.
Modern macroeconomics empirically addresses economy-wide incentives behind economic actions by using insights from the way a single representative household would behave. This analytical approach requires that incentives of the poor and the rich are strictly aligned. In empirical analysis a challenging complication is that consumer and income data are typically available at the household level, and individuals living in multimember households have the potential to share goods within the household. The analytical approach of modern macroeconomics would require that intra-household sharing is also strictly aligned across the rich and the poor. Here we have designed a survey method that allows the testing of this stringent property of intra-household sharing and find that it holds: once expenditures for basic needs are subtracted from disposable household income, household-size economies implied by the remainder household incomes are the same for the rich and the poor.
The introduction of a common currency as well as the harmonization of rules and regulations in Europe has significantly reduced distance in all its guises. With reduced costs of overcoming space, this emphasizes centripetal forces and it should foster consolidation of financial activity. In a national context, as a rule, this led to the emergence of one financial center. Hence, Europeanization of financial and monetary affairs could foretell the relegation of some European financial hubs such as Frankfurt and Paris to third-rank status. Frankfurt’s financial history is interesting insofar as it has lost (in the 1870s) and regained (mainly in the 1980s) its preeminent place in the German context. Because Europe is still characterized by local pockets of information-sensitive assets as well as a demand for variety the national analogy probably does not hold. There is room in Europe for a number of financial hubs of an international dimension, including Frankfurt.
This paper discusses the implications of transnational media production and diasporic networks for the cultural politics of migrant minorities. How are fields of cultural politics transformed if Hirschmann’s famous options ‘exit’ and ‘voice’ are no longer constituting mutually exclusive responses to dissent within a nation-state, but modes of action that can combine and build upon each other in the context of migration and diasporic media activism? Two case studies are discussed in more detail, relating to Alevi amateur television production in Germany and to a Kurdish satellite television station that reaches out to a diaspora across Europe and the Middle East. Keywords: migrant media, transnationalism, Alevis, Kurds, Turkey, Germany
The "quiet life hypothesis (QLH)" posits that banks enjoy the advantages of market power in terms of foregone revenues or cost savings. We suggest a unified approach to measure competition and efficiency simultaneously to test this hypothesis. We estimate bank-specific Lerner indices as measures of competition and test if cost and profit efficiency are negatively related to market power in the case of German savings banks.We find that both market power and average revenues declined among these banks between 1996 and 2006. While we find clear evidence supporting the QLH, estimated effects of the QLH are small from an economical perspective.
Central counterparties
(2008)
Central counterparties (CCPs) have increasingly become a cornerstone of financial markets infrastructure. We present a model where trades are time-critical, liquidity is limited and there is limited enforcement of trades. We show a CCP novating trades implements efficient trading behaviour. It is optimal for the CCP to face default losses to achieve the efficient level of trade. To cover these losses, the CCP optimally uses margin calls, and, as the default problem becomes more severe, also requires default funds and then imposes position limits.
The single most important policy-induced innovation in the international financial system since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods regime is the institution of the European Monetary Union. This paper provides an account of how the process of financial integration has promoted financial development in the euro area. It starts by defining financial integration and how to measure it, analyzes the barriers that can prevent it and the effects of their removal on financial markets, and assesses whether the euro area has actually become more integrated. It then explores to which extent these changes in financial markets have influenced the performance of the euro-area economy, that is, its growth and investment, as well as its ability to adjust to shocks and to allow risk-sharing. The paper concludes analyzing further steps that are required to consolidate financial integration and enhance the future stability of financial markets.
We examine insurance markets with two types of customers: those who regret suboptimal decisions and those who don.t. In this setting, we characterize the equilibria under hidden information about the type of customers and hidden action. We show that both pooling and separating equilibria can exist. Furthermore, there exist separating equilibria that predict a positive correlation between the amount of insurance coverage and risk type, as in the standard economic models of adverse selection, but there also exist separating equilibria that predict a negative correlation between the amount of insurance coverage and risk type, i.e. advantageous selection. Since optimal choice of regretful customers depends on foregone alternatives, any equilibrium includes a contract which is o¤ered but not purchased.
Generally, information provision and certifcation have been identified as the major economic functions of rating agencies. This paper analyzes whether the “watchlist” (rating review) instrument has extended the agencies' role towards a monitoring position, as proposed by Boot, Milbourn, and Schmeits (2006). Using a data set of Moody's rating history between 1982 and 2004, we find that the overall information content of rating action has indeed increased since the introduction of the watchlist procedure. Our findings suggest that rating reviews help to establish implicit monitoring contracts between agencies and borrowers and as such enable a finer partition of rating information, thereby contributing to a higher information quality.
Generally, information provision and certification have been identified as the major economic functions of rating agencies. This paper analyzes whether the “watchlist" (rating review) instrument has extended the agencies' role towards a monitoring position, as proposed by Boot, Milbourn, and Schmeits (2006). Using a data set of Moody's rating history between 1982 and 2004, we find that the overall information content of rating action has indeed increased since the introduction of the watchlist procedure. Our findings suggest that rating reviews help to establish implicit monitoring contracts between agencies and borrowers and as such enable a finer partition of rating information, thereby contributing to a higher information quality.