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Algorithmic trading has sharply increased over the past decade. Equity market liquidity has improved as well. Are the two trends related? For a recent five-year panel of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stocks, we use a normalized measure of electronic message traffic (order submissions, cancellations, and executions) as a proxy for algorithmic trading, and we trace the associations between liquidity and message traffic. Based on within-stock variation, we find that algorithmic trading and liquidity are positively related. To sort out causality, we use the start of autoquoting on the NYSE as an exogenous instrument for algorithmic trading. Previously, specialists were responsible for manually disseminating the inside quote. As stocks were phased in gradually during early 2003, the manual quote was replaced by a new automated quote whenever there was a change to the NYSE limit order book. This market structure change provides quicker feedback to traders and algorithms and results in more message traffic. For large-cap stocks in particular, quoted and effective spreads narrow under autoquote and adverse selection declines, indicating that algorithmic trading does causally improve liquidity.
Bayesian learning provides the core concept of processing noisy information. In standard Bayesian frameworks, assessing the price impact of information requires perfect knowledge of news’ precision. In practice, however, precision is rarely dis- closed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning, suggesting traders infer news’ precision from magnitudes of surprises and from external sources. We show that interactions of the different precision signals may result in highly nonlinear price responses. Empirical tests based on intra-day T-bond futures price reactions to employment releases confirm the model’s predictions and show that the effects are statistically and economically significant.
An asymmetric multivariate generalization of the recently proposed class of normal mixture GARCH models is developed. Issues of parametrization and estimation are discussed. Conditions for covariance stationarity and the existence of the fourth moment are derived, and expressions for the dynamic correlation structure of the process are provided. In an application to stock market returns, it is shown that the disaggregation of the conditional (co)variance process generated by the model provides substantial intuition. Moreover, the model exhibits a strong performance in calculating out–of–sample Value–at–Risk measures.
We develop a multivariate generalization of the Markov–switching GARCH model introduced by Haas, Mittnik, and Paolella (2004b) and derive its fourth–moment structure. An application to international stock markets illustrates the relevance of accounting for volatility regimes from both a statistical and economic perspective, including out–of–sample portfolio selection and computation of Value–at–Risk.
Innovative automated execution strategies like Algorithmic Trading gain significant market share on electronic market venues worldwide, although their impact on market outcome has not been investigated in depth yet. In order to assess the impact of such concepts, e.g. effects on the price formation or the volatility of prices, a simulation environment is presented that provides stylized implementations of algorithmic trading behavior and allows for modeling latency. As simulations allow for reproducing exactly the same basic situation, an assessment of the impact of algorithmic trading models can be conducted by comparing different simulation runs including and excluding a trader constituting an algorithmic trading model in its trading behavior. By this means the impact of Algorithmic Trading on different characteristics of market outcome can be assessed. The results indicate that large volumes to execute by the algorithmic trader have an increasing impact on market prices. On the other hand, lower latency appears to lower market volatility.
Marginal income taxes may have an insurance effect by decreasing the effective fluctuations of after-tax individual income. By compressing the idiosyncratic component o personal income fluctuations, higher marginal taxes should be negatively correlated with the dispersion of consumption across households, a necessary implication of an insurance effect of taxation. Our study empirically examines this negative correlation, exploiting the ample variation of state taxes across US states. We show that taxes are negatively correlated with the consumption dispersion of the within-state distribution of non-durable consumption and that this correlation is robust.
This paper addresses and resolves the issue of microstructure noise when measuring the relative importance of home and U.S. market in the price discovery process of Canadian interlisted stocks. In order to avoid large bounds for information shares, previous studies applying the Cholesky decomposition within the Hasbrouck (1995) framework had to rely on high frequency data. However, due to the considerable amount of microstructure noise inherent in return data at very high frequencies, these estimators are distorted. We offer a modified approach that identifies unique information shares based on distributional assumptions and thereby enables us to control for microstructure noise. Our results indicate that the role of the U.S. market in the price discovery process of Canadian interlisted stocks has been underestimated so far. Moreover, we suggest that rather than stock specific factors, market characteristics determine information shares.
Since independence from British colonial rule, Uganda has had a turbulent political history characterised by putsches, dictatorship, contested electoral outcomes, civil wars and a military invasion. There were eight changes of government within a period of twenty-four years (from 1962-1986), five of which were violent and unconstitutional. This paper identifies factors that account for these recurrent episodes of political violence and state collapse. While colonialism bequeathed the country a negative legacy including a weak state apparatus, ethnic division, skewed development, elite polarisation and a narrow economic base, post-colonial leaders have on the whole exacerbated rather than reversed these trends. Factors such as ethnic rivalry, political exclusion, militarisation of politics, weak state institutions, and unequal access to opportunities for self-advancement help to account for the recurrent cycles of violence and state failure prior to 1986. External factors have also been important, particularly the country’s politically turbulent neighbourhood, the outcome of political instability and civil conflict in surrounding countries. Neighbourhood turbulence stemming from such factors as civil wars in Congo and Sudan has had spill-over effects in that it has allowed insurgent groups geographical space within which to operate as well as provided opportunities for the acquisition of instruments of war with which to destabilise the country. Critical to these processes have been the porosity of post-colonial borders and the inability by the Ugandan state to exercise effective control over its entire territory. By demonstrating the interplay between internal and external factors in shaping Uganda’s postcolonial experience, the paper makes an important shift away from conventional explanations that have focused disproportionately on internal processes. Lastly, the paper provides pointers to areas of further research such as the economic foundations of conflict that should ultimately strengthen our understanding of factors that combine to make state-making fail or succeed.
Die Privatisierung von Krankheitskosten durch erhöhte Zuzahlungen, informelle Leistungsverweigerungen in der GKV sowie das Nebeneinander von gesetzlicher und privater Krankenversicherung bei einer wachsenden Kluft zwischen beiden Systemen haben die sozialen und die räumlich-zeitlichen Barrieren zur Inanspruchnahme von Gesundheitsleistungen für sozial schwache Gruppen erhöht. Damit wächst die Gefahr, dass die Krankenversorgungspolitik zu einer eigenständigen Ursache für die Verstärkung und Aufrechterhaltung gesundheitlicher Ungleichheit wird. Gleichzeitig werden die Möglichkeiten der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung, durch verbesserte Prävention zu einer Verringerung gesundheitlicher Ungleichheit beizutragen, nur unzureichend genutzt. So liegt die Teilnahmequote von Personen mit niedrigem Sozialstatus an zahlreichen Maßnahmen der Krankheitsfrüherkennung, insbesondere bei der Krebsvorsorge, nach wie vor deutlich unter dem Durchschnitt. Mit der Novellierung des § 20 SGB V im Jahr 2000 hat zwar auch die Verminderung der sozialen Ungleichheit von Gesundheitschancen Eingang in das Zielsystem der GKV gefunden. Allerdings geht dieses Ziel nur teilweise in die Präventionspraxis der Krankenkassen ein. Nach wie vor existieren zahlreiche Hürden bei der Implementierung von Maßnahmen der kontextgestützten Verhältnisprävention.
Hong Kong’s Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS) has been in operation for twenty-five years during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and/or speculative attacks. This fact alone suggests that the LERS is a robust system which enjoys a large measure of credibility in financial markets. This paper intends to investigate whether this is indeed the case, and whether it has been the case throughout its 25-year history. In particular we will use the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial asset prices about market expectations that are related to the credibility of the LERS. The main focus is on how market participants ‘judged’ the various changes made to the LERS, such as the ‘seven technical measures’ introduced in September 1998 and the ‘three refinements’ made in May 2005. These changes have been characterizes as making the system less discretionary over time, and we hypothesize that they have also made it more credible as revealed in the prices of exchange rate related asset prices. We also investigate the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in the current system in light of modern models of target-zone exchange rate systems. We will examine whether the intramarginal intervention in November 2007 changed the dynamic properties of the exchange rate as suggested by such models.
In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference.
A data set of annual values of area equipped for irrigation for all 236 countries in the world during the time period 1900 - 2003 was generated. The basis for this data product was information available through various online data bases and from other published materials. The complete time series were then constructed around the reported data applying six statistical methods. The methods are discussed in terms of reliability and data uncertainties. The total area equipped for irrigation in the world in 1900 was 53.2 million hectares. Irrigation was mainly practiced in all the arid regions of the globe and in paddy rice areas of South and East Asia. In some temperate countries in Western Europe irrigation was practiced widely on pastures and meadows. The time series suggest a modest rate of increase of irrigated areas in the first half of the 20th century followed by a more dynamic development in the second half. The turn of the century is characterized by an overall consolidating trend resulting at a total of 285.8 million hectares in 2003. The major contributing countries have changed little throughout the century. This data product is regarded as a preliminary result toward an ongoing effort to develop a detailed data set and map of areas equipped for irrigation in the world over the 20th century using sub-national statistics and historical irrigation maps.
We report evidence that the presence of hidden liquidity is associated with greater liquidity in the order books, greater trading volume, and smaller price impact. Limit and market order submission behavior changes when hidden liquidity is present consistent with at least some traders being able to detect hidden liquidity. We estimate a model of liquidity provision that allows us to measure variations in the marginal and total payoffs from liquidity provision in states with and without hidden liquidity. Our estimates of the expected surplus to providers of visible and hidden liquidity are positive and typically of the order of one-half to one basis points per trade. The positive liquidity provider surpluses combined with the increased trading volume when hidden liquidity is present are both consistent with liquidity externalities.
The future of securitization
(2008)
Securitization is a financial innovation that experiences a boom-bust cycle, as many other innovations before. This paper analyzes possible reasons for the breakdown of primary and secondary securitization markets, and argues that misaligned incentives along the value chain are the primary cause of the problems. The illiquidity of asset and interbank markets, in this view, is a market failure derived from ill-designed mechanisms of coordinating financial intermediaries and investors. Thus, illiquidity is closely related to the design of the financial chains. Our policy conclusions emphasize crisis prevention rather than crisis management, and the objective is to restore a “comprehensive incentive alignment”. The toe-hold for strengthening regulation is surprisingly small. First, we emphasize the importance of equity piece retention for the long-term quality of the underlying asset pool. As a consequence, equity piece allocation needs to be publicly known, alleviating market pricing. Second, on a micro level, accountability of managers can be improved by compensation packages aiming at long term incentives, and penalizing policies with destabilizing effects on financial markets. Third, on a macro level, increased transparency relating to effective risk transfer, risk-related management compensation, and credible measurement of rating performance stabilizes the valuation of financial assets and, hence, improves the solvency of financial intermediaries. Fourth, financial intermediaries, whose risk is opaque, may be subjected to higher capital requirements.
We find and describe four futures markets where the bid-ask spread is bid down to the fixed price tick size practically all the time, and which match counterparties using a pro-rata rule. These four markets´ offered depths at the quotes on average exceed mean market order size by two orders of magnitude, and their order cancellation rates (the probability of any given offered lot being cancelled) are significantly over 96 per cent. We develop a simple theoretical model to ex- plain these facts, where strategic complementarities in the choice of limit order size cause traders to risk overtrading by submitting over-sized limit orders, most of which they expect to cancel.
How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates? : New evidence for the United States
(2008)
Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries, this paper provides new evidence on the dynamic effects of government spending and technology shocks on the real exchange rate and the terms of trade. To achieve identification, we derive robust restrictions on the sign of several impulse responses from a two-country general equilibrium model. We find that both the real exchange rate and the terms of trade – whose responses are left unrestricted – depreciate in response to expansionary government spending shocks and appreciate in response to positive technology shocks.
This paper identifies some common errors that occur in comparative law, offers some guidelines to help avoid such errors, and provides a framework for entering into studies of the company laws of three major jurisdictions. The first section illustrates why a conscious approach to comparative company law is useful. Part I discusses some of the problems that can arise in comparative law and offers a few points of caution that can be useful for practical, theoretical and legislative comparative law. Part II discusses some relatively famous examples of comparative analysis gone astray in order to demonstrate the utility of heeding the outlined points of caution. The second section offers a framework for approaching comparative company law. Part III provides an example of using functional definition to demarcate the topic "company law", offering an "effects" test to determine whether a given provision of law should be considered as functionally part of the rules that govern the core characteristics of companies. It does this by presenting the relevant company law statutes and related topical laws of Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, using Delaware as a proxy for the 50 states. On the basis of this definition, Part IV analyzes the system of legal functions that comprises "company law" in the United States and the European Union. It selects as the predominant factor for consideration the jurisdictions, sub-jurisdictions and rule-making entities that have legislative or rule-making competence in the relevant territorial unit, analyzes the extent of their power, presents the type of law (rules) they enact (issue), and discusses the concrete manner in which the laws and rules of the jurisdictions and sub-jurisdictions can legally interact. Part V looks at the way these jurisdictions do interact on the temporal axis of history, that is, their actual influence on each other, which in the relevant jurisdictions currently takes the form of regulatory competition and legislative harmonization. The method of the approach outlined in this paper borrows much from system theory. The analysis attempts to be detailed without losing track of the overall jurisdictional framework in the countries studied.
Measuring financial asset return and volatilty spillovers, with application to global equity markets
(2008)
We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes, including trends and bursts in spillovers, and both turn out to be empirically important. In particular, in an analysis of nineteen global equity markets from the early 1990s to the present, we find striking evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts.
We argue for incorporating the financial economics of market microstructure into the financial econometrics of asset return volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent returns and market microstructure noise, which feature prominently in the recent volatility literature. The cross-correlation at zero displacement is typically negative, and cross-correlations at nonzero displacements are positive and decay geometrically. If market makers are sufficiently risk averse, however, the cross-correlation pattern is inverted. Our results are useful for assessing the validity of the frequently-assumed independence of latent price and microstructure noise, for explaining observed cross-correlation patterns, for predicting as-yet undiscovered patterns, and for making informed conjectures as to improved volatility estimation methods.
The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold and Li (2006) have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold-Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in a framework that allows for both global and country-specific factors. In an empirical analysis of term structures of government bond yields for the Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., we find that global yield factors do indeed exist and are economically important, generally explaining significant fractions of country yield curve dynamics, with interesting differences across countries.
This paper explores the role of trade integration—or openness—for monetary policy transmission in a medium-scale New Keynesian model. Allowing for strategic complementarities in price-setting, we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation. Although the strength of this effect increases with economic openness, it also requires that import prices respond to exchange rate changes. In this case domestic producers find it optimal to adjust their prices to exchange rate changes which alter the domestic currency price of their foreign competitors. We pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on U.S. time series relative to an aggregate of industrialized countries. While we find evidence for strong complementarities, exchange rate pass-through is limited. Openness has therefore little bearing on monetary transmission in the estimated model.
Reform of the securities class action is once again the subject of national debate. The impetus for this debate is the reports of three different groups – The Committee on Capital Market Regulation, The Commission on the Regulation of U.S. Capital Markets In the 21st Century, and McKinsey & Company. Each of the reports focuses on a single theme: how the contemporary regulatory culture places U.S. capital markets at a competitive disadvantage to foreign markets. While multiple regulatory forces are targeted by each report’s call for reform, each of the reports singles out securities class actions as one of the prime villains that place U.S. capital markets at a competitive disadvantage. The reports’ recommendations range from insignificant changes to drastic curtailments of private class actions. Surprisingly, these current-day cries echo calls for reform heeded by Congress in the not too distant past. Major reform of the securities class action occurred with the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.5 Among the PSLRA’s contributions is the introduction of procedures by which the court chooses from among competing petitioners a lead plaintiff for the class. The statute commands that the petitioner with the largest financial loss suffered as a consequence of the defendant’s alleged misrepresentation is presumed to be the most adequate plaintiff. Thus, the lead plaintiff provision supplants the traditional “first to file” rule for selecting the suit’s plaintiff with a mechanism that seeks to harness to the plaintiff’s economic self interest to the suits’ prosecution. Also, by eliminating the race to be the first to file, the lead plaintiff provision seeks to avoid “hair trigger” filings by overly eager plaintiffs’ counsel which Congress believed too frequently gave rise to incomplete and insubstantially pled causes of action. The PSLRA also introduced for securities class actions a heightened pleading requirement8 as well as a bar to the plaintiff obtaining any discovery prior to the district court disposing of the defendants’ motions to dismiss. By introducing the requirement that allegations involving fraud must be plead not only with particularity, but also that the pled facts must establish a “strong inference” of fraud, the PSLRA cast aside, albeit only for securities actions, the much lower notice pleading requirement that has been a fixture of American civil procedure for decades. Substantive changes to the law were also introduced by the PSLRA. With few exceptions, joint and several liability was replaced by proportionate liability so that a particular defendant’s liability is capped by that defendant’s relative degree of fault. Similarly, contribution rights among co-violators are also based on proportionate fault of each defendant. Three years after the PSLRA, Congress returned to the topic again by enacting the Securities Litigation Uniform Standards Act;13 this provision was prompted by aggressive efforts of plaintiff lawyers to bypass the limitations, most notably the bar to discovery and higher pleading requirement, of the PSLRA by bringing suit in state court. Post-SLUSA, securities fraud class actions are exclusively the domain of the federal court. In this paper, we examine the impact of the PSLRA and more particularly the impact the type of lead plaintiff on the size of settlements in securities fraud class actions. We thus provide insight into whether the type of plaintiff that heads the class action impacts the overall outcome of the case. Furthermore, we explore possible indicia that may explain why some suits settle for extremely small sums – small relative to the “provable losses” suffered by the class, small relative to the asset size of the defendantcompany, and small relative to other settlements in our sample. This evidence bears heavily on the debate over “strike suits.” Part I of this paper sets forth the contemporary debate surrounding the need for further reforms of securities class actions. In this section, we set forth the insights advanced in three prominent reports focused on the competitiveness of U.S. capital markets. In Part II we first provide descriptive statistics of our extensive data set, and thenuse multivariate regression analysis to explore the underlying relationships. In Part III, we closely examine small settlements for clues to whether they reflect evidence of strike suits. We conclude in Part IV with a set of policy recommendations based on our analysis of the data. Our goals in this paper are more modest than the Committee Report, the Chamber Report and the McKinsey Report, each of which called for wide-ranging reforms: we focus on how the PSLRA changed securities fraud settlements so as to determine whether the reforms it introduced accomplished at least some of the Act’s important goals. If the PSLRA was successful, and we think it was, then one must be somewhat skeptical of the need for further cutbacks in private securities class action so soon after the Act was passed.
We study the relation between cognitive abilities and stockholding using the recent Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which has detailed data on wealth and portfolio composition of individuals aged 50+ in 11 European countries and three indicators of cognitive abilities: mathematical, verbal fluency, and recall skills. We find that the propensity to invest in stocks is strongly associated with cognitive abilities, for both direct stock market participation and indirect participation through mutual funds and retirement accounts. Since the decision to invest in less information-intensive assets (such as bonds) is less strongly related to cognitive abilities, we conclude that the association between cognitive abilities and stockholding is driven by information constraints, rather than by features of preferences or psychological traits.
This paper documents and studies sources of international differences in participation and holdings in stocks, private businesses, and homes among households aged 50+ in the US, England, and eleven continental European countries, using new internationally comparable, household-level data. With greater integration of asset and labor markets and policies, households of given characteristics should be holding more similar portfolios for old age. We decompose observed differences across the Atlantic, within the US, and within Europe into those arising from differences: a) in the distribution of characteristics and b) in the influence of given characteristics. We find that US households are generally more likely to own these assets than their European counterparts. However, European asset owners tend to hold smaller real, PPP-adjusted amounts in stocks and larger in private businesses and primary residence than US owners at comparable points in the distribution of holdings, even controlling for differences in configuration of characteristics. Differences in characteristics often play minimal or no role. Differences in market conditions are much more pronounced among European countries than among US regions, suggesting significant potential for further integration.
We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, the factors influencing individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households’ portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find that females, the religiously devout, those equipped with a better memory, the less educated, and those living close to where the events of September 2001 took place worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks, mostly through the high levels of insecurity felt by females. Insecurity due to terrorism also makes single men less likely to own a business. Finally, we find evidence of expenditure shifting away from recreational activities that can potentially leave one exposed to a terrorist attack and towards goods that might help one cope with the consequences of terrorism materially (increased use of car and spending on the house) or psychologically (spending on personal care products by females in couples).
We explore the pattern of elderly homeownership using microeconomic surveys of 15 OECD countries, merging 60 national household surveys on about 300,000 individuals. In all countries the survey is repeated over time, permitting construction of an international dataset of repeated cross-sectional data. We find that ownership rates decline considerably after age 60 in all countries. However, a large part of the decline depends on cohort effects. Adjusting for them, we find that ownership rates start falling after age 70 and reach a percentage point per year decline after age 75. We find that differences across country ownership trajectories are correlated with indicators measuring the degree of market regulations.
Inhalt: 1. Gesellschaftsrecht als neues Rechtgebiet für die Rechtsordnungen der GUS: 1 2. Besonderheiten der AG in den Staaten der GUS 4 3. Ausgewählte Probleme des Aktienrechts 6 a. Corporate Governance 6 b. Haftung der Organe 7 c. Aktionärsrechte, vor allem Auskunftsrechte 9 d. Große Geschäfte – krupnie sdelki 10 e. Verträge mit Interessiertheit 12 4. Reform des Aktienrechts 13 a. Entscheidung der interparlamentarischen Versammlung 13 b. Grundlagen des neuen Konzeptes zu einem Modell-Aktiengesetz 14 c. Vorschläge des Konzeptes zu oben erwähnten Problemen 17 Zusammenfassung 19 Zusammenfassung: Allein die kurze Schilderung der Entwicklung des Gesellschaftsrechts in den GUS-Staaten zeigt die Notwendigkeit der Reformen auf diesem Gebiet. Wichtig ist, dass die Länder, die traditionell zur kontinental-europäischen Rechtsfamilie gehören, im Rahmen dieser Familie bleiben. Die kritiklose und bedingungslose Übernahme der Institute der Common-Law-Tradition hat für zahlreiche Irritationen und Verwirrungen gesorgt. Die Korrektur dieser Missentwicklungen kann als große Herausforderung der Reform des Aktienrechts der Staaten der GUS bezeichnet werden.
We consider a multi-period rational expectations model in which risk-averse investors differ in their information on past transaction prices (the ticker). Some investors (insiders) observe prices in real-time whereas other investors (outsiders) observe prices with a delay. As prices are informative about the asset payoff, insiders get a strictly larger expected utility than outsiders. Yet, information acquisition by one investor exerts a negative externality on other investors. Thus, investors’ average welfare is maximal when access to price information is rationed. We show that a market for price information can implement the fraction of insiders that maximizes investors’ average welfare. This market features a high price to curb excessive acquisition of ticker information. We also show that informational efficiency is greater when the dissemination of ticker information is broader and more timely.
We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness parameter of about 0.7 on average across countries. The sticky-consumption-growth model outperforms the random walk model of Hall (1978), and typically fits the data better than the popular Campbell and Mankiw (1989) model. In several countries, the sticky-consumption-growth and Campbell-Mankiw models work about equally well.
Based on a unique dataset of legislative changes in industrial countries, we identify events that strengthen the competition control of mergers and acquisitions, analyze their impact on banks and non-financial firms and explain the different reactions observed with specific regulatory characteristics of the banking sector. Covering nineteen countries for the period 1987 to 2004, we find that more competition-oriented merger control increases the stock prices of banks and decreases the stock prices of non-financial firms. Bank targets become more profitable and larger, while those of non-financial firms remain mostly unaffected. A major determinant of the positive bank returns is the degree of opaqueness that characterizes the institutional setup for supervisory bank merger reviews. The legal design of the supervisory control of bank mergers may therefore have important implications for real activity.
Traditionally, aggregate liquidity shocks are modelled as exogenous events. Extending our previous work (Cao & Illing, 2007), this paper analyses the adequate policy response to endogenous systemic liquidity risk. We analyse the feedback between lender of last resort policy and incentives of private banks, determining the aggregate amount of liquidity available. We show that imposing minimum liquidity standards for banks ex ante are a crucial requirement for sensible lender of last resort policy. In addition, we analyse the impact of equity requirements and narrow banking, in the sense that banks are required to hold sufficient liquid funds so as to pay out in all contingencies. We show that such a policy is strictly inferior to imposing minimum liquidity standards ex ante combined with lender of last resort policy.
Wertpapierleihgeschäfte gehören heute zum Standardrepertoire bei der Durchführung von Kapitalmarkttransaktionen. Der vorliegende Beitrag geht der Frage nach, welche Möglichkeiten solche Geschäfte im Hinblick auf eigene Aktien bieten und welche Grenzen §§ 71 ff. AktG ihrem Einsatz bei eigenen Aktien ziehen.
Das MoMiG hat einerseits die bilanzgestützte aktien- und GmbH-rechtliche Vermögensbindung gelockert, andererseits aber in Gestalt des Verbots von Zahlungen an Aktionäre, die zur Zahlungsunfähigkeit der Gesellschaft führen müssen, einen gesetzlichen Liquiditätsschutz eingeführt. Der Beitrag lotet Voraussetzungen und Grenzen dieses Zahlungsverbots aus. Zusammenfassung Der Liquiditätsschutz durch das Zahlungsverbot nach § 92 Abs. 2 S. 3 AktG ergänzt die auf die Erhaltung des bilanziellen Vermögens gerichtete Vermögensbindung durch § 57 AktG. Anders als die Vermögensbindung gilt das Zahlungsverbot unabhängig davon, ob der Zahlungsempfänger eine gleichwertige Gegenleistung erbringt. Wegen der andersartigen Schutzrichtung des Zahlungsverbots bleibt seine Geltung unberührt durch Lockerungen der Vermögensbindung im Vertragskonzern und im faktischen Konzern. Anders als der weite Wortlaut der Vorschrift nahe legt, gilt das Zahlungsverbot des § 92 Abs. 2 S. 3 AktG nicht für jede Zahlung an einen Gläubiger, der zugleich Aktien der zahlenden AG besitzt. Seine Anwendung setzt vielmehr voraus, dass die Zahlung oder das ihr zugrunde liegende Geschäft gerade auf der Aktionärseigenschaft des Empfängers beruht oder sich dies jedenfalls nicht ausschließen lässt, oder dass die Zahlung auf einen Anspruch erfolgt, der nach § 39 Abs. 1 Nr. 5, Abs. 5 InsO in der Insolvenz der Gesellschaft nur nachrangig zu befriedigen wäre.
Die politische Steuerung des Krankenhaussektors hat sich in den vergangenen anderthalb Jahrzehnten nachhaltig verändert. Das Gesundheitsstrukturgesetz von 1992 markiert einen gesundheitspolitischen Paradigmenwechsel, mit dem verstärkt wettbewerbliche Steuerungsinstrumente in das Gesundheitswesen eingeführt wurden. Auch im stationären Sektor ersetzen bzw. ergänzen wettbewerbliche Instrumente korporatistische Arrangements. Die Gegenüberstellung der politischen Steuerung des Krankenhaussektors vor 1992 mit der Situation nach der Gesundheitsreform 2007 verdeutlicht, dass auf den Feldern Leistungserbringung, Vergütung und Qualitätssicherung sukzessive ein neues Steuerungsmodell entstanden ist. Dieses zeichnet sich durch eine gewachsene Komplexität, eine Zunahme von Steuerungsaktivitäten und eine Neujustierung des Verhältnisses staatlicher bzw. korporatistischer Steuerung einerseits und wettbewerblicher Steuerung andererseits aus. Dort, wo es um allokative Entscheidungen geht, werden korporatistische Elemente durch wettbewerbliche ersetzt. Auf anderen Regulierungsfelder bleibt der Korporatismus dagegen erhalten. Der Staat als „architect of political order“ (Anderson) hat diese Transformation herbeigeführt, sieht sich allerdings zunehmend mit dem Widerspruch zwischen einer bedarfsorientierten Krankenhausplanung und Investitionsfinanzierung auf Landesebene und einer Leistungsverteilung über den Wettbewerb konfrontiert.
We investigate whether information sharing among banks has affected credit market performance in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, using a large sample of firm-level data. Our estimates show that information sharing is associated with improved availability and lower cost of credit to firms. This correlation is stronger for opaque firms than transparent ones and stronger in countries with weak legal environments than in those with strong legal environments. In cross-sectional estimates, we control for variation in country-level aggregate variables that may affect credit, by examining the differential impact of information sharing across firm types. In panel estimates, we also control for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity at the firm level, as well as for changes in macroeconomic variables and the legal environment.
Purim and parodies
(2008)
Der Verkauf von Immobiliendarlehen sorgt nach wie vor für Aufregung. Die Kreditwirtschaft sieht sich mit vehementen öffentlichen Vorwürfen konfrontiert, die den Kredithandel beeinträchtigen. Die Kreditinstitute werden indes nicht müde in ihren Beteuerungen, ordnungsgemäß bediente Kredite nicht an Finanzinvestoren zu veräußern und dabei hinzunehmen, dass ihre Kreditnehmer ihrer Wohnimmobilie verlustig gehen. Die praktische Bedeutung des Kredithandels ist gerade in Deutschland immens. Exemplarisch genannt sei als eine der größten bisherigen Transaktionen der Ende 2007 erfolgte Erwerb eines 53.000 Immobiliarkredite umfassenden Portfolios im Volumen von ca. 4,3 Mrd. Euro durch die ING Diba von der Hypo Real Estate. Unter der Überschrift "Verbesserte Transparenz bei Verkäufen von Kreditforderungen" hat die Bundesregierung um die letzte Jahreswende ein Maßnahmenpaket vorgelegt, mit dem auf Missbrauchsfälle beim Verkauf von Krediten reagiert werden soll. Inzwischen ist die Diskussion fortgeschritten, weitere Reformvorschläge sind in der Welt. Dabei sind die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen von Kreditverkäufen de lege lata auch nach einer einschlägigen BGH-Entscheidung vom 27. Februar 2007 noch immer nicht abschließend geklärt. Bevor in nachfolgendem Beitrag die aktuellen Reformansätze vorgestellt und einer kurzen Bewertung unterzogen werden, seien daher die derzeitige Praxis und Rechtslage untersucht.
The market reaction to legal shocks and their antidotes : lessons from the sovereign debt market
(2008)
This Article examines the market reaction to a series of legal events concerning the judicial interpretation of the pari passu clause in sovereign debt instruments. More generally, the Article provides insights into the reactions of investors (predominantly financial institutions), issuers (sovereigns), and those who draft bond covenants (lawyers), to unanticipated changes in the judicial interpretation of certain covenant terms.
Heiner Boehncke beschreibt in seinem kurzen Aufsatz die Entwicklung des Kulturprojekts >Literaturland Hessen<, das mittlerweile zum Begriff geworden ist und über Hessen hinaus für gelungene Kultur-Kooperation steht. Heute handelt es sich bei dem Projekt >Literaturland Hessen< um eine Kooperation des Hessischen Rundfunks mit dem Hessischen Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kultur, dem ADAC Hessen/Thüringen, dem Hessischen Literaturrat und der Kulturstiftung der Sparkassen Hessen/Thüringen.
In this paper, we investigate how bank mergers affect bank revenues and present empirical evidence that mergers among banks have a substantial and persistent negative impact on merging banks’ revenues. We refer to merger related negative effects on banks’ revenues as dissynergies and suggest that they are a result of organizational diseconomies, the loss of customers and the temporary distraction of management from day-to-day operations by effecting the merger. For our analyses we draw on a proprietary data set with detailed financials of all 457 regional savings banks in Germany, which have been involved in 212 mergers between 1994 and 2006. We find that the negative impact of a merger on net operating revenues amounts to 3% of pro-forma consolidated banks’ operating profits and persists not only for the year of the merger but for up to four years post-merger. Only thereafter mergers exhibit a significantly superior performance compared to their respective pre-merger performance or the performance of their non-merging peers. The magnitude and persistence of merger related revenue dissynergies highlight their economic relevance. Previous research on post-merger performance mainly focuses on the effects from mergers on banks’ (cost) efficiency and profitability but fails to provide clear and consistent results. We are the first, to our knowledge, to examine the post-merger performance of banks’ net operating revenues and to empirically verify significant negative implications of mergers for banks’ net operating revenues. We propose that our finding of negative merger related effects on banks’ operating revenues is the reason why previous research fails to show merger related gains.
In this paper, we examine the impact of mergers among German savings banks on the extent to which these savings banks engage in small business lending. The ongoing consolidation in the banking industry has sparked concerns about the continuous availability of credit to small businesses which has been further fueled by empirical studies that partly confirm a reduction in small business lending in the aftermath of mergers. However, using a proprietary data set of German savings banks we find strong evidence that in Germany merging savings banks do not significantly change the extent to which they lend to small businesses compared to prior to the merger or compared to the contemporaneous lending by non-merging banks. We investigate the merger related effects on small business lending in Germany from a bank-level perspective. Furthermore, we estimate small business lending and its continuous adjustment process simultaneously using recent General Method of Moments (GMM) techniques for panel data as proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991).