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We investigate, using the 2002 US Health and Retirement Study, the factors influencing individuals’ insecurity and expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households’ portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find that females, the religiously devout, those equipped with a better memory, the less educated, and those living close to where the events of September 2001 took place worry a lot about their safety. In addition, fear of terrorism discourages households from investing in stocks, mostly through the high levels of insecurity felt by females. Insecurity due to terrorism also makes single men less likely to own a business. Finally, we find evidence of expenditure shifting away from recreational activities that can potentially leave one exposed to a terrorist attack and towards goods that might help one cope with the consequences of terrorism materially (increased use of car and spending on the house) or psychologically (spending on personal care products by females in couples).
Das "Handbook of...", um das es in dieser Arbeit geht, wird, wenn es vollendet werden sollte, 20 Bände mit insgesamt ca. 16000 Seiten Informationen zu einer aus Anonymisierungsgründen hier nicht näher bezeichneten Bevölkerungsgruppe umfassen, die im gegenwärtigen Nordamerika als ethnische Minderheit gilt. Der komplette Titel des Handbook war länger, wird aber ebenfalls aus Gründen der Anonymisierung nicht erwähnt. Es war als eine Enzyklopädie geplant, die die bis dato gewonnenen wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisse über die Geschichte und Kultur dieser Gruppe von der frühesten Prähistorie bis zur Gegenwart mit dem Ziel zusammenfassen sollte, ein von ausgesuchten Wissenschaftlern geschriebenes enzyklopädisches Referenzwerk nicht nur für Fachleute, sondern auch für die Allgemeinheit zu schaffen (General Editor 1987). In Form einer Monographie wird dargestellt, wo und wie das Handbook produziert wurde, welche unterschiedlichen berufs- und branchenkulturellen Elemente im Redaktionsbüro zusammentrafen und welche von außen auf es einwirkten, wobei natürlich nur eine Auswahl beschrieben und keine komplette Auflistung vorgenommen werden konnte. Das "Handbook of ..." wurde Mitte der sechziger Jahre geplant, Anfang der siebziger konkret begonnen und war 1997 bei Band 10 von 20 geplanten Bänden angekommen. Im Redaktionsbüro wurden die von vielen verschiedenen Autoren geschriebenen Beiträge aneinander angeglichen, um eine für Enzyklopädien erforderliche Einheitlichkeit zu erreichen. Überprüft, und gegebenenfalls korrigiert, wurden die Texte auf die Einhaltung des Themas und ihre Schlüssigkeit hin, auf eine (in Angleichung an andere Beiträge des Bandes und der Serie) einheitliche Schreibweise von Namen und Begriffen, auf korrekte Sachangaben sowie auf fehlerfreie Zitate und Literaturangaben. Solche Überprüfungen wurden nicht nur für das Handbook vorgenommen, sondern genauso in anderen großen und renommierten Enzyklopädie- und Lexikonverlagen wie der Encyclopedia Britannica und dem Brockhausund Dudenverlag. Durch die Stellung als Wissensautorität und 'letzte Instanz' in der Klärung von strittigen Fragen waren sie es ihrem Ruf schuldig, (möglichst) fehlerfreie Werke herauszubringen. ...
American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E24
This paper presents a simple new method for estimating the size of ‘wealth effects’ on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the well-documented sluggishness of consumption growth (often interpreted as ‘habits’ in the asset pricing literature) to distinguish between short-run and long-run wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next-quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final long-run effect around 9 cents. Consistent with several recent studies, we find a housing wealth effect that is substantially larger than the stock wealth effect. We believe that our approach is preferable to the currently popular cointegrationbased estimation methods, because neither theory nor evidence justifies faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector. JEL Classification: E21, E32, C22
We take a simple time-series approach to modeling and forecasting daily average temperature in U.S. cities, and we inquire systematically as to whether it may prove useful from the vantage point of participants in the weather derivatives market. The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, yes. Time-series modeling reveals conditional mean dynamics, and crucially, strong conditional variance dynamics, in daily average temperature, and it reveals sharp differences between the distribution of temperature and the distribution of temperature surprises. As we argue, it also holds promise for producing the long-horizon predictive densities crucial for pricing weather derivatives, so that additional inquiry into time-series weather forecasting methods will likely prove useful in weather derivatives contexts.
We examine the empirical predictions of a real option-pricing model using a large sample of data on mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. banking sector. We provide estimates for the option value that the target bank has in waiting for a higher bid instead of accepting an initial tender offer. We find empirical support for a model that estimates the value of an option to wait in accepting an initial tender offer. Market prices reflect a premium for the option to wait to accept an offer that has a mean value of almost 12.5% for a sample of 424 mergers and acquisitions between 1997 and 2005 in the U.S. banking industry. Regression analysis reveals that the option price is related to both the price to book market and the free cash flow of target banks. We conclude that it is certainly in the shareholders best interest if subsequent offers are awaited. JEL Classification: G34, C10
Rezension zu Joachim Höppner/Waltraud Seidel-Höppner: Etienne Cabet und seine Ikarische Kolonie. Sein Weg vom Linksliberalen zum Kommunisten und seine Kolonie in Darstellung und Dokumentation. Schriftenreihe der Internationalen Forschungsstelle "Demokratische Bewegungen in Mitteleuropa 1770-1850", Bd. 33. Frankfurt/M.: Peter Lang, 2002.
Die USA - Terra incognita für die meisten Europäer im frühen und mittleren 19. Jahrhundert - spielten als Modell staatswissenschaftlichen, verfassungsrechtlichen und politischen Denkens bei den Vertretern und Verteidigern der monarchischen Herrschaft und ihres Machtgefüges genauso wie bei den Anführern und Anhängern gemäßigter und radikaler Reform-, Oppositions- und Widerstandsbewegungen, aber auch an deutschen Universitäten und Akademien, in literarischen und philosophischen Zirkeln, in Unternehmer- und Verlegerkreisen, Künstlerbünden und der medialen Öffentlichkeit eine zentrale Rolle. Zugleich stellte die Neue Welt ein Sehnsuchtsziel für Freiheitsliebende, politische Flüchtlinge, Auswanderungswillige und Wirtschaftsmigranten, aber auch bisweilen die gefürchtete Endstation für verbannte Gefangene dar: Das Spektrum der Funktionen, Aufgaben, Bilder und Vorstellungen ist breit, das die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika in der Wahrnehmung der Zeitgenossen im Vor- und Nachmärz einnahmen und das ihnen zugeschrieben wurde - nicht zuletzt auch in der (Emigrations-)Literatur. Gerade die repressive, restaurative Politik in Europa und hier vor allem in den Einzelstaaten des Deutschen Bundes bildete für viele unter Verfolgungsmaßnahmen und Zensurbedingungen arbeitende und leidende Oppositionelle, Intellektuelle, Gelehrte und Kulturschaffende den Ausgangspunkt für ihre intensive Auseinandersetzung mit dem Verfassungs-, Regierungs- und Gesellschaftssystem der USA und den dort, wie es scheint, ohne Probleme vertretenen und verwirklichten Ideen von Freiheit, Demokratie, Recht, Föderalismus, Republik und Revolution und inspirierten sie gleichzeitig zu einer umfassenden künstlerischen und wissenschaftlichen Beschäftigung mit den jenseits des Atlantiks vorgefundenen und noch näher zu erkundenden Kulturen, Sprachen und Landschaften.
In this paper, we examine three famous episodes of deliberate deflation (or disinflation) in U.S. history, including episodes following the Civil War, World War I, and the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s. These episodes were associated with widely divergent effects on the real economy, which we attribute both to differences in the policy actions undertaken, and to the transparency and credibility of the monetary authorities. We attempt to account for the salient features of each episode within the context of a stylized DSGE model. Our model simulations indicate how a more predictable policy of gradual deflation could have helped avoid the sharp post-WWI depression. But our analysis also suggests that the strong argument for gradualism under a transparent monetary regime becomes less persuasive if the monetary authority lacks credibility; in this case, an aggressive policy stance (as under Volcker) can play a useful signalling role by making a policy shift more apparent to private agents. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52
Derivatives usage in risk management by U.S. and German non-financial firms : a comparative survey
(1998)
This paper is a comparative study of the responses to the 1995 Wharton School survey of derivative usage among US non-financial firms and a 1997 companion survey on German non-financial firms. It is not a mere comparison of the results of both studies but a comparative study, drawing a comparable subsample of firms from the US study to match the sample of German firms on both size and industry composition. We find that German firms are more likely to use derivatives than US firms, with 78% of German firms using derivatives compared to 57% of US firms. Aside from this higher overall usage, the general pattern of usage across industry and size groupings is comparable across the two countries. In both countries, foreign currency derivative usage is most common, followed closely by interest rate derivatives, with commodity derivatives a distant third. Usage rates across all three classes of derivatives are higher for German firms than US firms. In contrast to the similarities, firms in the two countries differ notably on issues such as the primary goal of hedging, their choice of instruments, and the influence of their market view when taking derivative positions. These differences appear to be driven by the greater importance of financial accounting statements in Germany than the US and stricter German corporate policies of control over derivative activities within the firm. German firms also indicate significantly less concern about derivative related issues than US firms, which appears to arise from a more basic and simple strategy for using derivatives. Finally, among the derivative non-users, German firms tend to cite reasons suggesting derivatives were not needed whereas US firms tend to cite reasons suggesting a possible role for derivatives, but a hesitation to use them for some reason.
Der dritte Advent ist geschafft, wie biegen auf die Zielgerade gen Weihnachten, Jahreswechsel und Bretterblogpause ein. In der letzten, diesmal recht bunten Netzschau diesen Jahres drehen wir uns um Islamophobie und Rassismus, Folter, Cyberpeace, die “resistance” und soziale Bewegungen und schließlich “IS(IS)”.
Nach dem Ausfall der vergangenen Woche, gibt es diese Woche wieder eine Netzschau. Alles beim Alten, bin ich geneigt zu sagen. Aber das stimmt nicht ganz. Diese Ausgabe ist eine Übergangs-Netzschau und kommt deshalb sehr schlank daher. Wir überlegen, das Format drastisch zu verändern. Über das “wie” ist bisher allerdings noch keine Entscheidung gefallen. Wer uns Tipps geben mag, wie ihre/seine perfekte Netzschau aussehen würde oder was wir auf jeden Fall verändern sollten, kommentiere bitte diesen Beitrag. Danke!
Regulations in the pre-Sarbanes–Oxley era allowed corporate insiders considerable flexibility in strategically timing their trades and SEC filings, for example, by executing several trades and reporting them jointly after the last trade. We document that even these lax reporting requirements were frequently violated and that the strategic timing of trades and reports was common. Event study abnormal re-turns are larger after reports of strategic insider trades than after reports of otherwise similar nonstrategic trades. Our results also imply that delayed reporting is detrimental to market efficiency and lend strong support to the more stringent trade reporting requirements established by the Sarbanes–Oxley Act. JEL Classification: G14, G30, G32 Keywords: Insider Trading , Directors' Dealings , Corporate Governance , Market Efficiency
The paper presents an overview about some of the international relevant projects of digital resources in Germany. Online presentations of primary sources, e.g. photographic material, and bibliographic tools supporting research, such as cross searching, will be presented as potential partners of resource sharing with North America. Not only the possibility of cooperation will be sketched, but also necessary preliminary work and some obstacles will be outlined. This report is accompanied by a short characterization of African studies in Germany and the status quo of Open Access-initiatives.
It is well known that Luis Kutner (1908-1993) played an important role in the development of the living will (advance directive, Patientenverfügung). But it is not clear when he developed his concept. We have screened the Luis Kutner Papers,deposited at the Hoover Institution Archives at Stanford University to answer this question. We found out that in the second half of 1967, Kutner dealt intensively with the issue of euthanasia. On December 7, 1967, he delivered a speech at the annual meeting of the Euthanasia Society in New York and presented the concept of the living will to the audience. So Kutner surely was a pioneer in this field, but further research is necessary to clarify, if he (or maybe Elsa W. Simon or Abraham L. Wolbarst) was the "originator" of the living will concept in the sense of passive euthanasia.
Using a set of regional inflation rates we examine the dynamics of inflation dispersion within the U.S.A., Japan and across U.S. and Canadian regions. We find that inflation rate dispersion is significant throughout the sample period in all three samples. Based on methods applied in the empirical growth literature, we provide evidence in favor of significant mean reversion (ß-convergence) in inflation rates in all considered samples. The evidence on ó-convergence is mixed, however. Observed declines in dispersion are usually associated with decreasing overall inflation levels which indicates a positive relationship between mean inflation and overall inflation rate dispersion. Our findings for the within-distribution dynamics of regional inflation rates show that dynamics are largest for Japanese prefectures, followed by U.S. metropolitan areas. For the combined U.S.-Canadian sample, we find a pattern of within-distribution dynamics that is comparable to that found for regions within the European Monetary Union (EMU). In line with findings in the so-called 'border literature' these results suggest that frictions across European markets are at least as large as they are, e.g., across North American markets. Klassifikation: E31, E52, E58
Regional inflation dynamics within and across Euro area countries and a comparison with the US
(2006)
We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as well as an idiosyncratic regional component. Our findings indicate a substantial common area wide component, that can be related to the common monetary policy in the euro area and to external developments, in particular exchange rate movements and changes in oil prices. The effects of the area wide factors differ across regions, however. We relate these differences to structural economic characteristics of the various regions. We also find a substantial national component. Our findings do not differ substantially before and after the formal introduction of the euro in 1999, suggesting that convergence has largely taken place before the mid 90s. Analysing US regional inflation developments yields similar results regarding the relevance of common US factors. Finally, we find that disaggregate regional inflation information, as summarised by the area wide factors, is important in explaining aggregate euro area and US inflation rates, even after conditioning on macroeconomic variables. Therefore, monitoring regional inflation rates within euro area countries can enhance the monetary policy maker’s understanding of aggregate area wide inflation dynamics. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, C33
Taking shareholder protection seriously? : Corporate governance in the United States and Germany
(2003)
The paper undertakes a comparative study of the set of laws affecting corporate governance in the United States and Germany, and an evaluation of their design if one assumes that their objective were the protection of the interests of minority outside shareholders. The rationale for such an objective is reviewed, in terms of agency cost theory, and then the institutions that serve to bound agency costs are examined and critiqued. In particular, there is discussion of the applicable legal rules in each country, the role of the board of directors, the functioning of the market for corporate control, and (briefly) the use of incentive compensation. The paper concludes with the authors views on what taking shareholder protection seriously, in each country s legal system, would require.
"Tracking Stock", zum Teil auch als "Targeted Stock" bezeichnet, ist eine Innovation des U.S.-amerikanischen Kapitalmarkts. Mit Tracking Stocks bezeichnet man Aktien, deren Gewinnbezugsrecht sich lediglich nach dem Ergebnis einer bestimmten Unternehmenssparte, nicht des Gesamtunternehmens, bemißt. Ein typisches Beispiel bildet die Schaffung von Tracking Stocks im Zusammenhang mit der Übernahme von Electronic Data Systems (EDS) durch General Motors im Jahre 1984. Die bisherigen Aktionäre von EDS, die EDS eingebracht hatten, erhielten zwar General Motors-Aktien, deren Dividendenbezugsrecht aber am - separat zu ermittelnden - Gewinn der künftigen EDS-Sparte von General Motors orientiert wurde. Damit sollte erreicht werden, die bisherigen Aktionäre der EDS auch weiterhin vorrangig an den Erträgen des - im Vergleich zum Kerngeschäft von General Motors als profitabler eingeschätzten - Elektronikgeschäfts teilhaben zu lassen. Im folgenden werden zunächst Gründe und Anwendungsbereich (II.) sowie die Vor- und Nachteile dieser Gestaltung (III.) näher erläutert. Ein weiterer Abschnitt (IV.) wendet sich dann ausgewählten Einzelfragen zu, die sich bei Einführung dieses Instruments nach deutschem Recht stellen würden.
The article describes the legal structure of the Daimler-Chrysler merger. It asks why this specific structure rather than another cheaper way was chosen. This leads to the more general question of the pros and cons of mandatory corporate law as a regulatory device. The article advocates an "optional" approach: The legislator should offer various menus or sets of binding rules among which the parties may choose. (JEL: ...)
Peter Raisch hat sich in seinen wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten immer wieder mit dem Verhältnis von Rechtsordnung und Markt, den Aufgaben des Rechts gegenüber dem Marktgeschehen, befaßt. Die folgenden Bemerkungen beziehen sich auf den Teilbereich des "Marktrechts", der in den letzten Jahren die vielleicht umfassendste Veränderung erfahren hat und für den auch weiterhin eine dynamische Entwicklung zu erwarten steht: das Kapitalmarktrecht. Der Begriff selbst hat sich erst im Verlauf dieser Entwicklung gebildet1, ist aber inzwischen fest etabliert. Die Internationalisierung der Kapitalmärkte bringt Fragen des Anwendungsbereichs, der Kollision und der Harmonisierung verschiedener Kapitalmarktrechte mit sich - Themen, die dem Kenner des Kartellrechts, des "Grundgesetzes" unserer Marktordnung, seit langem wohl vertraut sind. Der Verfasser darf daher auf das Interesse des Jubilars hoffen, wenn er im folgenden auf einige in diesem Bereich auftretende Fragen eingeht.
“WAR IS PEACE, FREEDOM IS SLAVERY, AND IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH”. The slogan from George Orwell’s “1984” dystopia appears to capture the state of Russia’s 2014 official discourse quite accurately. This has not gone unnoticed by public and academic spectators in and outside Russia: while Bild magazine is counting Putin’s lies in his recent ARD interview, a Zeit article declares Russia itself to be a post-modern “lie”...
Part IV of our series on ISIS : "Blogforum 'Kalifat des Terrors: Interdisziplinäre Perspektiven auf den Islamischen Staat".
One element within US counter-terrorism strategies is “reducing terrorist group cohesion”, as the think tank RAND recommends in one of its reports. The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) puts these recommendations into actions. Reports like ”Cracks in the Foundation” or ”Dysfunction and Decline” vividly depict the internal disagreement and disunity between al-Qaeda central (AQ) and its regional affiliates, most of all AQ in Iraq (AQI). Albeit these reports are drafted by pundits and certainly provide meaningful and often rare insights into the inner life of the global jihadi movement, they also serve another purpose: to deliberately amplify the very same trend they describe: disunity...
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects. JEL Klassifikation: F3, F4, G1, C5
What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in financial econometrics, which are likely to produce more accurate assessments of market risk. Clearly, the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real-time risk tracking in very high-dimensional situations - impose strict limits on model complexity. Hence we stress parsimonious models that are easily estimated, and we discuss a variety of practical approaches for high-dimensional covariance matrix modeling, along with what we see as some of the pitfalls and problems in current practice. In so doing we hope to encourage further dialog between the academic and practitioner communities, hopefully stimulating the development of improved market risk management technologies that draw on the best of both worlds.
Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992) information value approach, we reevaluate the vanishing relationship between US monetary aggregates and these macroeconomic fundamentals by taking into account the international currency feature of the US dollar. In practice, by using official US data for foreign flows constructed by Porter and Judson (1996) we find that domestic money (currency component of M1 corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of US real output and inflation. Statistical evidence here provided thus suggests that the Friedman and Schwartz's stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the domestic monetary aggregates. This Version: August, 2001. Klassifikation: E3, E4, E5
Die USA - Terra incognita für die meisten Europäer im frühen und mittleren 19. Jahrhundert - spielten als Modell staatswissenschaftlichen, verfassungsrechtlichen und politischen Denkens bei den Vertretern und Verteidigern der monarchischen Herrschaft und ihres Machtgefüges genauso wie bei den Anführern und Anhängern gemäßigter und radikaler Reform-, Oppositions- und Widerstandsbewegungen, aber auch an deutschen Universitäten und Akademien, in literarischen und philosophischen Zirkeln, in Unternehmer- und Verlegerkreisen, Künstlerbünden und der medialen Öffentlichkeit eine zentrale Rolle. Zugleich stellte die Neue Welt ein Sehnsuchtsziel für Freiheitsliebende, politische Flüchtlinge, Auswanderungswillige und Wirtschaftsmigranten, aber auch bisweilen die gefürchtete Endstation für verbannte Gefangene dar: Das Spektrum der Funktionen, Aufgaben, Bilder und Vorstellungen ist breit, das die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika in der Wahrnehmung der Zeitgenossen im Vor- und Nachmärz einnahmen und das ihnen zugeschrieben wurde - nicht zuletzt auch in der (Emigrations-)Literatur.