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Introduction: The aim of this study was to clinically assess the capacity of a novel bovine pericardium based, non-cross linked collagen matrix in root coverage.
Methods: 62 gingival recessions of Miller class I or II were treated. The matrix was adapted underneath a coronal repositioned split thickness flap. Clinical values were assessed at baseline and after six months.
Results: The mean recession in each patient was 2.2 mm at baseline. 6 Months after surgery 86.7% of the exposed root surfaces were covered. On average 0,3 mm of recession remained. The clinical attachment level changed from 3.5 ± 1.3 mm to 1,8 ( ± 0,7) mm during the observational time period. No statistically significant difference was found in the difference of probing depth. An increase in the width of gingiva was significant. With a baseline value of 1.5 ± 0.9 mm an improvement of 2.4 ± 0.8 mm after six month could be observed. 40 out of 62 recessions were considered a thin biotype at baseline. After 6 months all 62 sites were assessed thick.
Conclusions: The results demonstrate the capacity of the bovine pericardium based non-cross linked collagen matrix for successful root coverage. This material was able to enhance gingival thickness and the width of keratinized gingiva. The percentage of root coverage achieved thereby is comparable to existing techniques. This method might contribute to an increase of patient's comfort and an enhanced aesthetical outcome.
Background: Radiofrequency ablation is a minimal invasive therapy in the treatment of bone metastases. In this study we present a new ablation system enabling an ablation in multiple directions and with an adaptable size and shape.
Material and methods: VX-2 tumor was used for the induction of experimental bone metastases in the femur of six New Zealand white rabbits. X-ray imaging as well as CT and MRI scans before and after treatment was carried out. After detecting bone tumor, radiofrequency ablation was performed. The ablation instrument contained a 10 g bipolar, articulated extendable electrode and a proprietary generator with an impedance controlled algorithm. All bones and the soft tissue were examined histologically.
Results: All animals developed local bone tumor. Mean duration until first osteolytic lesions on CT-scans was 48±14 days. The mean lesion area was 26 mm(2). No systemic tumor spread was seen. 6 radiofrequency procedures were carried out with a mean application time of 6 min±2:30 and an average temperature in the region of effect of 55 °C±4. MRI imaging demonstrated an ablation zone of 23±6 mm around the electrode. Histopathology showed an extensive heat necrosis with no remaining tumor cells in the ablation area.
Conclusion: Radiofrequency ablation is a quickly developing treatment option on the field of minimal invasive bone tumor therapy. The electrode enables an ablation adapted to size and shape of the metastases. Further clinical studies are necessary to test and enhance this radiofrequency system.
Objective: Sensorineural hearing loss leads to the progressive degeneration of spiral ganglion cells (SGC). Next to postoperative fibrous tissue growth, which should be suppressed to assure a close nerve–electrode interaction, the density of healthy SGC is one factor that influences the efficiency of cochlear implants (CI), the choice of treatment for affected patients. Rolipram, a phosphodiesterase-4 inhibitor, has proven neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory effects and might also reduce SGC degeneration and fibrosis, but it has to pass the cellular membrane to be biologically active.
Methods: Lipidic nanocapsules (LNC) can be used as biodegradable drug carriers to increase the efficacy of conventional application methods. We examined the biological effects of rolipram and LNC's core encapsulated rolipram on SGC and dendritic cell (DC) tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) production in vitro and on SGC survival in systemically-deafened guinea pigs in vivo.
Results: Our results prove that rolipram does not have a beneficial effect on cultured SGC. Incorporation of rolipram in LNC increased the survival of SGC significantly. In the DC study, rolipram significantly inhibited TNF-α in a dose-dependent manner. The rolipram-loaded LNC provided a significant cytokine inhibition as well. In vivo data do not confirm the in vitro results.
Conclusion: By transporting rolipram into the SGC cytoplasm, LNC enabled the neuroprotective effect of rolipram in vitro, but not in vivo. This might be due to dilution of test substances by perilymph or an inadequate release of rolipram based on differing in vivo and in vitro conditions. Nevertheless, based on in vitro results, proving a significantly increased neuronal survival when using LNC-rolipram compared to pure rolipram and pure LNC application, we believe that the combination of rolipram and LNC can potentially reduce neuronal degeneration and fibrosis after CI implantation. We conclude that rolipram is a promising drug that can be used in inner ear therapy and that LNC have potential as an inner ear drug-delivery system. Further experiments with modified conditions might reveal in vivo biological effects.
Background: To perform a comprehensive study on the relationship between vitamin D metabolism and the response to interferon-α-based therapy of chronic hepatitis C.
Methodology/Principal Findings: Associations between a functionally relevant polymorphism in the gene encoding the vitamin D 1α-hydroxylase (CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012) and the response to treatment with pegylated interferon-α (PEG-IFN-α) and ribavirin were determined in 701 patients with chronic hepatitis C. In addition, associations between serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25[OH]D3) and treatment outcome were analysed. CYP27B1-1260 rs10877012 was found to be an independent predictor of sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with poor-response IL28B genotypes (15% difference in SVR for rs10877012 genotype AA vs. CC, p = 0.02, OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.061–2.188), but not in patients with favourable IL28B genotype. Patients with chronic hepatitis C showed a high prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (25[OH]D3<20 ng/mL) during all seasons, but 25(OH)D3 serum levels were not associated with treatment outcome.
Conclusions/Significance: Our study suggests a role of bioactive vitamin D (1,25[OH]2D3, calcitriol) in the response to treatment of chronic hepatitis C. However, serum concentration of the calcitriol precursor 25(OH)D3 is not a suitable predictor of treatment outcome.
All positive strand RNA viruses are known to replicate their genomes in close association with intracellular membranes. In case of the hepatitis C virus (HCV), a member of the family Flaviviridae, infected cells contain accumulations of vesicles forming a membranous web (MW) that is thought to be the site of viral RNA replication. However, little is known about the biogenesis and three-dimensional structure of the MW. In this study we used a combination of immunofluorescence- and electron microscopy (EM)-based methods to analyze the membranous structures induced by HCV in infected cells. We found that the MW is derived primarily from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and contains markers of rough ER as well as markers of early and late endosomes, COP vesicles, mitochondria and lipid droplets (LDs). The main constituents of the MW are single and double membrane vesicles (DMVs). The latter predominate and the kinetic of their appearance correlates with kinetics of viral RNA replication. DMVs are induced primarily by NS5A whereas NS4B induces single membrane vesicles arguing that MW formation requires the concerted action of several HCV replicase proteins. Three-dimensional reconstructions identify DMVs as protrusions from the ER membrane into the cytosol, frequently connected to the ER membrane via a neck-like structure. In addition, late in infection multi-membrane vesicles become evident, presumably as a result of a stress-induced reaction. Thus, the morphology of the membranous rearrangements induced in HCV-infected cells resemble those of the unrelated picorna-, corona- and arteriviruses, but are clearly distinct from those of the closely related flaviviruses. These results reveal unexpected similarities between HCV and distantly related positive-strand RNA viruses presumably reflecting similarities in cellular pathways exploited by these viruses to establish their membranous replication factories.
Background: In Emergency and Medical Admission Departments (EDs and MADs), prompt recognition and appropriate infection control management of patients with Highly Infectious Diseases (HIDs, e.g. Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers and SARS) are fundamental for avoiding nosocomial outbreaks.
Methods: The EuroNHID (European Network for Highly Infectious Diseases) project collected data from 41 EDs and MADs in 14 European countries, located in the same facility as a national/regional referral centre for HIDs, using specifically developed checklists, during on-site visits from February to November 2009.
Results: Isolation rooms were available in 34 facilities (82,9%): these rooms had anteroom in 19, dedicated entrance in 15, negative pressure in 17, and HEPA filtration of exhausting air in 12. Only 6 centres (14,6%) had isolation rooms with all characteristics. Personnel trained for the recognition of HIDs was available in 24 facilities; management protocols for HIDs were available in 35.
Conclusions: Preparedness level for the safe and appropriate management of HIDs is partially adequate in the surveyed EDs and MADs.
The biological effects of energetic heavy ions are attracting increasing interest for their applications in cancer therapy and protection against space radiation. The cascade of events leading to cell death or late effects starts from stochastic energy deposition on the nanometer scale and the corresponding lesions in biological molecules, primarily DNA. We have developed experimental techniques to visualize DNA nanolesions induced by heavy ions. Nanolesions appear in cells as “streaks” which can be visualized by using different DNA repair markers. We have studied the kinetics of repair of these “streaks” also with respect to the chromatin conformation. Initial steps in the modeling of the energy deposition patterns at the micrometer and nanometer scale were made with MCHIT and TRAX models, respectively.
Adaptation of wild-type p53 expressing UKF-NB-3 cancer cells to the murine double minute 2 inhibitor nutlin-3 causes de novo p53 mutations at high frequency (13/20) and multi-drug resistance. Here, we show that the same cells respond very differently when adapted to RITA, a drug that, like nutlin-3, also disrupts the p53/Mdm2 interaction. All of the 11 UKF-NB-3 sub-lines adapted to RITA that we established retained functional wild-type p53 although RITA induced a substantial p53 response. Moreover, all RITA-adapted cell lines remained sensitive to nutlin-3, whereas only five out of 10 nutlin-3-adapted cell lines retained their sensitivity to RITA. In addition, repeated adaptation of the RITA-adapted sub-line UKF-NB-3rRITA10 μM to nutlin-3 resulted in p53 mutations. The RITA-adapted UKF-NB-3 sub-lines displayed no or less pronounced resistance to vincristine, cisplatin, and irradiation than nutlin-3-adapted UKF-NB-3 sub-lines. Furthermore, adaptation to RITA was associated with fewer changes at the expression level of antiapoptotic factors than observed with adaptation to nutlin-3. Transcriptomic analyses indicated the RITA-adapted sub-lines to be more similar at the gene expression level to the parental UKF-NB-3 cells than nutlin-3-adapted UKF-NB-3 sub-lines, which correlates with the observed chemotherapy and irradiation sensitivity phenotypes. In conclusion, RITA-adapted cells retain functional p53, remain sensitive to nutlin-3, and display a less pronounced resistance phenotype than nutlin-3-adapted cells.
The human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is suspected to increase tumour malignancy by infection of cancer and/or stroma cells (oncomodulation). So far, oncomodulatory mechanisms have been attributed to the presence of HCMV and direct action of its gene products on cancer cells. Here, we investigated whether the prolonged presence of HCMV can result in the irreversible selection of a cancer cell population with increased malignancy. The neuroblastoma cell line UKF-NB-4 was long-term (200 passages) infected with the HCMV strain Hi91 (UKF-NB-4Hi) before virus eradication using ganciclovir (UKF-NB-4HiGCV). Global gene expression profiling of UKF-NB-4, UKF-NB-4Hi and UKF-NB-4HiGCV cells and subsequent bioinformatic signal transduction pathway analysis revealed clear differences between UKF-NB-4 and UKF-NB-4Hi, as well as between UKF-NB-4 and UKF-NB-4HiGCV cells, but only minor differences between UKF-NB-4Hi and UKF-NB-4HiGCV cells. Investigation of the expression of a subset of five genes in different chronically HCMV-infected cell lines before and after virus eradication suggested that long-term HCMV infection reproducibly causes specific changes. Array comparative genomic hybridisation showed virtually the same genomic differences for the comparisons UKF-NB-4Hi/UKF-NB-4 and UKF-NB-4HiGCV/UKF-NB-4. UKF-NB-4Hi cells are characterised by an increased invasive potential compared with UKF-NB-4 cells. This phenotype was completely retained in UKF-NB-4HiGCV cells. Moreover, there was a substantial overlap in the signal transduction pathways that differed significantly between UKF-NB-4Hi/UKF-NB-4HiGCV and UKF-NB-4 cells and those differentially regulated between tumour tissues from neuroblastoma patients with favourable or poor outcome. In conclusion, we present the first experimental evidence that long-term HCMV infection can result in the selection of tumour cell populations with enhanced malignancy.
Background: The human ATP-binding cassette, subfamily B, member 11 (ABCB11) gene encodes the bile salt export pump, which is exclusively expressed at the canalicular membrane of hepatocytes. A frequent variant in the coding region, c.1331 T > C, leading to the amino acid exchange p.V444A, has been associated with altered serum bile salt levels in healthy individuals and predisposes homozygous carriers of the [C] allele for obstetric cholestasis. Recently, elevated bile salt levels were shown to be significantly associated with rates and risk of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection treated with pegylated interferon-alpha2 and ribavirin, suggesting a potential role for bile salt levels in HCV treatment outcomes and in the fibrogenic evolution of HCV-related liver disease. The aim of this study was to investigate a possible association of ABCB11 c.1331 T > C with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and fibrosis stages as assessed by non-invasive transient elastography in a German cohort of patients.
Methods: ABCB11 c.1331 T > C genotype was determined by allelic discrimination assay in 649 HCV infected cases and 413 controls. Overall, 444 cases were staged for fibrotic progression by measurement of liver stiffness.
Results: Homo- or heterozygous presence of the frequent [C] allele was associated with HCV positivity (OR = 1.41, CI = 1.02 - 1.95, p = 0.037). No association was detectable between the ABCB11 c.1331 T > C genotype and increased liver stiffness.
Conclusions: Our data confirm that homozygous presence of the major [C] allele of ABCB11 c.1331 T > C is a genetic susceptibility factor for HCV infection, but not for liver fibrosis.
Background: The transcription factor T-bet is pivotal for initiation of Th1-related immunoactivation. Identification of novel genes directly regulated by T-bet is crucial.
Results: Genome-wide analysis and subsequent experiments revealed that T-bet up-regulates IL-36γ/IL-1F9 in myeloid cells.
Conclusion: IL-1-related IL-36γ is a direct T-bet target in myeloid cells.
Significance: Observations suggest that IL-36γ , besides IFNγ, contributes to T-bet functions in immunopathology
By concerted action in dendritic (DC) and T cells, T-box expressed in T cells (T-bet, Tbx21) is pivotal for initiation and perpetuation of Th1 immunity. Identification of novel T-bet-regulated genes is crucial for further understanding the biology of this transcription factor. By combining siRNA technology with genome-wide mRNA expression analysis, we sought to identify new T-bet-regulated genes in predendritic KG1 cells activated by IL-18. One gene robustly dependent on T-bet was IL-36γ, a recently described novel IL-1 family member. Promoter analysis revealed a T-bet binding site that, along with a κB site, enables efficient IL-36γ induction. Using knock-out animals, IL-36γ reliance on T-bet was extended to murine DC. IL-36γ expression by human myeloid cells was confirmed using monocyte-derived DC and M1 macrophages. The latter model was employed to substantiate dependence of IL-36γ on endogenous T-bet in human primary cells. Ectopic expression of T-bet likewise mediated IL-36γ production in HaCaT keratinocytes that otherwise lack this transcription factor. Additional experiments furthermore revealed that mature IL-36γ has the capability to establish an inflammatory gene expression profile in human primary keratinocytes that displays enhanced mRNA levels for TNFα, CCL20, S100A7, inducible NOS, and IL-36γ itself. Data presented herein shed further light on involvement of T-bet in innate immunity and suggest that IL-36γ, besides IFNγ, may contribute to functions of this transcription factor in immunopathology.
Interleukin-22 predicts severity and death in advanced liver cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study
(2012)
Background: Interleukin-22 (IL-22), recently identified as a crucial parameter of pathology in experimental liver damage, may determine survival in clinical end-stage liver disease. Systematic analysis of serum IL-22 in relation to morbidity and mortality of patients with advanced liver cirrhosis has not been performed so far.
Methods: This is a prospective cohort study including 120 liver cirrhosis patients and 40 healthy donors to analyze systemic levels of IL-22 in relation to survival and hepatic complications.
Results: A total of 71% of patients displayed liver cirrhosis-related complications at study inclusion. A total of 23% of the patients died during a mean follow-up of 196 +/- 165 days. Systemic IL-22 was detectable in 74% of patients but only in 10% of healthy donors (P <0.001). Elevated levels of IL-22 were associated with ascites (P = 0.006), hepatorenal syndrome (P <0.0001), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (P = 0.001). Patients with elevated IL-22 (>18 pg/ml, n = 57) showed significantly reduced survival compared to patients with regular ([less than or equal to]18 pg/ml) levels of IL-22 (321 days versus 526 days, P = 0.003). Other factors associated with overall survival were high CRP ([greater than or equal to]2.9 mg/dl, P = 0.005, hazard ratio (HR) 0.314, confidence interval (CI) (0.141 to 0.702)), elevated serum creatinine (P = 0.05, HR 0.453, CI (0.203 to 1.012)), presence of liver-related complications (P = 0.028, HR 0.258 CI (0.077 to 0.862)), model of end stage liver disease (MELD) score [greater than or equal to]20 (P = 0.017, HR 0.364, CI (0.159 to 0.835)) and age (P = 0.011, HR 1.047, CI (1.011 to 1.085)). Adjusted multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis identified elevated systemic IL-22 levels as independent predictors of reduced survival (P = 0.007, HR 0.218, CI (0.072 to 0.662)).
Conclusions: In patients with liver cirrhosis, elevated systemic IL-22 levels are predictive for reduced survival independently from age, liver-related complications, CRP, creatinine and the MELD score. Thus, processes that lead to a rise in systemic interleukin-22 may be relevant for prognosis of advanced liver cirrhosis.
IL-18 is an important mediator involved in chronic inflammatory conditions such as cutaneous lupus erythematosus, psoriasis and chronic eczema. An imbalance between IL-18 and its endogenous antagonist IL-18 binding protein (BP) may account for increased IL-18 activity. IL-27 is a cytokine with dual function displaying pro- and anti-inflammatory properties. Here we provide evidence for a yet not described anti-inflammatory mode of action on skin resident cells. Human keratinocytes and surprisingly also fibroblasts (which do not produce any IL-18) show a robust, dose-dependent and highly inducible mRNA expression and secretion of IL-18BP upon IL-27 stimulation. Other IL-12 family members failed to induce IL-18BP. The production of IL-18BP peaked between 48–72 h after stimulation and was sustained for up to 96 h. Investigation of the signalling pathway showed that IL-27 activates STAT1 in human keratinocytes and that a proximal GAS site at the IL-18BP promoter is of importance for the functional activity of IL-27. The data are in support of a significant anti-inflammatory effect of IL-27 on skin resident cells. An important novel property of IL-27 in skin pathobiology may be to counter-regulate IL-18 activities by acting on keratinocytes and importantly also on dermal fibroblasts.
Aim: Ventilation with pure oxygen (hyperoxic ventilation: HV) is thought to decrease whole body oxygen consumption (VO(2)). However, the validity and impact of this phenomenon remain ambiguous; until now, under hyperoxic conditions, VO(2) has only been determined by the reverse Fick principle, a method with inherent methodological problems. The goal of this study was to determine changes of VO(2), carbon dioxide production (VCO(2)), and the respiratory quotient (RQ) during normoxic and hyperoxic ventilation, using a metabolic monitor.
Methods: After providing signed informed consent and institutional acceptance, 14 healthy volunteers were asked to sequentially breathe room air, pure oxygen, and room air again. VO(2), VCO(2), RQ, and energy expenditure (EE) were determined by indirect calorimetry using a modified metabolic monitor during HV.
Results: HV reduced VO(2) from 3.4 (3.0/4.0) mL/kg/min to 2.8 (2.5/3.6) mL/kg/min (P < 0.05), whereas VCO(2) remained constant (3.0 [2.6/3.6] mL/kg/min versus 3.0 [2.6/3.5] mL/kg/min, n.s.). After onset of HV, RQ increased from 0.9 (0.8/0.9) to 1.1 (1.0/1.1). Most changes during HV were immediately reversed during subsequent normoxic ventilation.
Conclusion: HV not only reduces VO(2), but also increases the respiratory quotient. This might be interpreted as an indicator of the substantial metabolic changes induced by HV. However, the impact of this phenomenon requires further study.
In the original manuscript, Figs. 7–16 included fonts which were not correctly embedded in the file. As such, unless certain propriety software (ArcGIS) is installed on the viewing platform, the figures will appear corrupted. In this Corrigendum, Figs. 7–16 and their captions are reproduced with the fonts correctly embedded. Please find the correct figures below.
The late Miocene palaeorecord provides evidence for a warmer and wetter climate than that of today, and there is uncertainty in the palaeo-CO2 record of at least 200 ppm. We present results from fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for the late Miocene that examine the relative roles of palaeogeography (topography and ice sheet geometry) and CO2 concentration in the determination of late Miocene climate through comprehensive terrestrial model-data comparisons. Assuming that these data accurately reflect the late Miocene climate, and that the late Miocene palaeogeographic reconstruction used in the model is robust, then results indicate that:
1. Both palaeogeography and atmospheric CO2 contribute to the proxy-derived precipitation differences between the late Miocene and modern reference climates. However these contributions exibit synergy and so do not add linearly.
2. The vast majority of the proxy-derived temperature differences between the late Miocene and modern reference climates can only be accounted for if we assume a palaeo-CO2 concentration towards the higher end of the range of estimates.
The Late Miocene (∼11.6–5.3 Ma) palaeorecord provides evidence for a warmer and wetter climate than that of today and there is uncertainty in the palaeo-CO2 record of at least 150 ppmv. We present results from fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for the Late Miocene that examine the relative roles of palaeogeography (topography and ice sheet geometry) and CO2 concentration in the determination of Late Miocene climate through comprehensive terrestrial model-data comparisons. Assuming that the data accurately reflects the Late Miocene climate, and that the Late Miocene palaeogeographic reconstruction used in the model is robust, then results indicate that the proxy-derived precipitation differences between the Late Miocene and modern can be largely accounted for by the palaeogeographic changes alone. However, the proxy-derived temperatures differences between the Late Miocene and modern can only begin to be accounted for if we assume a palaeo-CO2 concentration towards the higher end of the range of estimates.
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon source was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.
Assessing the uncertainties of simulation results of ecological models is becoming increasingly important, specifically if these models are used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions on site to regional/national levels. Four general sources of uncertainty effect the outcome of process-based models: (i) uncertainty of information used to initialise and drive the model, (ii) uncertainty of model parameters describing specific ecosystem processes, (iii) uncertainty of the model structure, and (iv) accurateness of measurements (e.g., soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange) which are used for model testing and development.
The aim of our study was to assess the simulation uncertainty of the process-based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we set up a Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to estimate the joint model parameter distribution. Data for model testing, parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment were taken from observations of soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) as observed over a 10 yr period at the spruce site of the Höglwald Forest, Germany. By running four independent Markov Chains in parallel with identical properties (except for the parameter start values), an objective criteria for chain convergence developed by Gelman et al. (2003) could be used.
Our approach shows that by means of the joint parameter distribution, we were able not only to limit the parameter space and specify the probability of parameter values, but also to assess the complex dependencies among model parameters used for simulating soil C and N trace gas emissions. This helped to improve the understanding of the behaviour of the complex LandscapeDNDC model while simulating soil C and N turnover processes and associated C and N soil-atmosphere exchange. In a final step the parameter distribution of the most sensitive parameters determining soil-atmosphere C and N exchange were used to obtain the parameter-induced uncertainty of simulated N2O, NO and CO2 emissions. These were compared to observational data of an calibration set (6 yr) and an independent validation set of 4 yr. The comparison showed that most of the annual observed trace gas emissions were in the range of simulated values and were predicted with a high certainty (Root-mean-squared error (RMSE) NO: 2.4 to 18.95 g N ha−1 d−1, N2O: 0.14 to 21.12 g N ha−1 d−1, CO2: 5.4 to 11.9 kg C ha−1 d−1). However, LandscapeDNDC simulations were sometimes still limited to accurately predict observed seasonal variations in fluxes.
Assessing the uncertainties of simulation results of ecological models is becoming of increasing importance, specifically if these models are used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at site to regional/national levels. Four general sources of uncertainty effect the outcome of process-based models: (i) uncertainty of information used to initialise and drive the model, (ii) uncertainty of model parameters describing specific ecosystem processes, (iii) uncertainty of the model structure and (iv) accurateness of measurements (e.g. soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange) which are used for model testing and development.
The aim of our study was to assess the simulation uncertainty of the process-based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we set up a Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to estimate the joint model parameter distribution. Data for model testing, parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment were taken from observations of soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO), and carbon dioxide (CO2) as observed over a 10 yr period at the spruce site of the Höglwald Forest, Germany. By running four independent Markov Chains in parallel with identical properties (except for the parameter start values), an objective criteria for chain convergence developed by Gelman et al. (2003) could be used.
Our approach showed that by means of the joined parameter distribution, we were able not only to limit the parameter space and specify the probability of parameter values, but also to assess the complex dependencies among model parameters used for simulating soil C and N trace gas emissions. This helped to improve the understanding of the behaviour of the complex LandscapeDNDC model while simulating soil C and N turnover processes and associated C and N soil-atmosphere exchange.
In a final step the parameter distribution of the most sensitive parameters determining soil-atmosphere C and N exchange were used to obtain the parameter-induced uncertainty of simulated N2O, NO and CO2 emissions. These were compared to observational data of the calibration set (6 yr) and an independent validation set of 4 yr.
The comparison showed that most of the annual observed trace gas emissions were in the range of simulated values and were predicted with a high certainty (Residual mean squared error (RMSE) NO: 2.5 to 21.3 g N ha−1 d−1, N2O: 0.2 to 21.4 g N ha−1 d−1, CO2: 5.8 to 12.6 kg C ha−1 d−1). However, LandscapeDNDC simulations were sometimes limited to accurately predict observed seasonal variations in fluxes.