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This paper investigates how an office-motivated incumbent can use transparency enhancement on public spending to signal his budgetary management ability and win re-election. We show that when the incumbent faces a popular challenger, transparency policy can be an effective signaling device. A more popular challenger can reduce the probability to enhance transparency, while voters can be better off due to a more informative signaling. It is also shown that a higher level of public interest in fiscal issues can increase the probability of enhancing transparency, while voters can be worse off by a less informative signaling.
This paper constructs a dynamic model of health insurance to evaluate the short- and long run effects of policies that prevent firms from conditioning wages on health conditions of their workers, and that prevent health insurance companies from charging individuals with adverse health conditions higher insurance premia. Our study is motivated by recent US legislation that has tightened regulations on wage discrimination against workers with poorer health status (Americans with Disability Act of 2009, ADA, and ADA Amendments Act of 2008, ADAAA) and that will prohibit health insurance companies from charging different premiums for workers of different health status starting in 2014 (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, PPACA). In the model, a trade-off arises between the static gains from better insurance against poor health induced by these policies and their adverse dynamic incentive effects on household efforts to lead a healthy life. Using household panel data from the PSID we estimate and calibrate the model and then use it to evaluate the static and dynamic consequences of no-wage discrimination and no-prior conditions laws for the evolution of the cross-sectional health and consumption distribution of a cohort of households, as well as ex-ante lifetime utility of a typical member of this cohort. In our quantitative analysis we find that although a combination of both policies is effective in providing full consumption insurance period by period, it is suboptimal to introduce both policies jointly since such policy innovation induces a more rapid deterioration of the cohort health distribution over time. This is due to the fact that combination of both laws severely undermines the incentives to lead healthier lives. The resulting negative effects on health outcomes in society more than offset the static gains from better consumption insurance so that expected discounted lifetime utility is lower under both policies, relative to only implementing wage nondiscrimination legislation.
This paper investigates the effect of anticipated/experienced regret and pride on individual investors’ decisions to hold or sell a winning or losing investment, in the form of the disposition effect. As expected the results suggest that in the loss domain, low anticipated regret predicts a greater probability of selling a losing investment. While in the gain domain, high anticipated pride indicates a greater probability of selling a winning investment. The effects of high experienced regret/pride on the selling probability are found as well. An unexpected finding is that regret (pride) seems to be not only relevant for the loss (gain) domain, but also for the gain (loss) domain. In addition, this paper presents evidence of interconnectedness between anticipated and experienced emotions. The authors discuss the implications of these findings and possible avenues for further research.
After nearly two decades of US leadership during the 1980s and 1990s, are Europe’s venture capital (VC) markets in the 2000s finally catching up regarding the provision of financing and successful exits, or is the performance gap as wide as ever? Are we amid an overall VC performance slump with no encouraging news? We attempt to answer these questions by tracking over 40,000 VC-backed firms stemming from six industries in 13 European countries and the US between 1985 and 2009; determining the type of exit – if any – each particular firm’s investors choose for the venture.
Venture capital (VC) investment has long been conceptualized as a local business , in which the VC’s ability to source, syndicate, fund, monitor, and add value to portfolio firms critically depends on their access to knowledge obtained through their ties to the local (i.e., geographically proximate) network. Consistent with the view that local networks matter, existing research confirms that local and geographically distant portfolio firms are sourced, syndicated, funded, and monitored differently. Curiously, emerging research on VC investment practice within the United States finds that distant investments, as measured by “exits” (either initial public offering or merger & acquisition) out-perform local investments. These findings raise important questions about the assumed benefits of local network membership and proximity. To more deeply probe these questions, we contrast the deal structure of cross-border VC investment with domestic VC investment, and contrast the deal structure of cross-border VC investments that include a local
partner with those that do not. Evidence from 139,892 rounds of venture capital financing in the period 1980-2009 suggests that cross-border investment practice, in terms of deal sourcing, syndication, and performance indeed change with proximity, but that monitoring practices do not. Further, we find that the inclusion of a local partner in the investment syndicate yields surprisingly few benefits. This evidence, we argue, raises important questions about VC investment practice as well as the ability of firms to capture and lever the presumed benefits of network membership.
Fazit
1. Aufgrund der Regelungen über Produktinterventionen nach Artt. 31, 32 MiFIR-E könnte den mitgliedstaatlichen Behörden und – subsidiär – ESMA künftig ein scharfes Schwert zur Abwehr von Gefahren für den Anlegerschutz, die Finanzmärkte und die Finanzstabilität im Rahmen der Wertpapieraufsicht zur Verfügung stehen. Da die Eingriffsvoraussetzungen vage formuliert und noch durch delegierte Rechtsakte der Kommission zu konkretisieren sind, lässt sich die künftige Bedeutung dieser Aufsichtsbefugnisse zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt noch nicht abschließend einschätzen. Insbesondere ist unklar, welche Anforderungen an eine zu Eingriffen berechtigende Gefahr für den Anlegerschutz zu stellen sind.
2. Der Vorstand eines als Aktiengesellschaft verfassten Wertpapierdienstleistungsunternehmens muss seine Entscheidungen künftig auch daran ausrichten, dass weder die von der Gesellschaft entwickelten und vertriebenen Finanzinstrumente noch ihre Finanztätigkeiten oder Finanzpraktiken eine Gefahr für den Anlegerschutz, die Integrität und das Funktionieren der Finanzmärkte oder die Stabilität des Finanzsystems darstellen, die Anlass für eine Intervention sein könnte.
3. Ist die Gesellschaft Adressat eines auf der Grundlage von Artt. 31, 32 MiFIR-E erlassenen Verbots oder einer Beschränkung, muss der Vorstand die Entscheidung über das Einlegen von Rechtsmitteln nach den allgemeinen aktienrechtlichen Grundsätzen an der Förderlichkeit für das Unternehmensinteresse ausrichten.
4. Schließlich wird sich künftig die Frage nach der Haftung der Gesellschaft gegenüber den Anlegern stellen, wenn Finanzinstrumente entgegen einem im Interesse des Anlegerschutzes ergangenen Verbot vertrieben werden. Sofern der Gesetzgeber keine abweichende Entscheidung trifft, ist anzunehmen, dass die abgeschlossenen Verträge nicht nach § 134 BGB nichtig, sondern allenfalls anfechtbar sind. Darüber hinaus können vertragliche oder deliktische Schadensersatzansprüche der Anleger bestehen.
In seiner Entscheidung in Sachen Fresenius - Der Konzern 2012, 420 - hat der Bundesgerichtshof entschieden, der Vorstand einer Aktiengesellschaft handele pflichtwidrig, wenn er einem Aufsichtsratsmitglied die vereinbarte Vergütung für Beratungsleistungen zahle, noch bevor der Aufsichtsrat dem Vertrag zugestimmt habe. In diesem Zusammenhang hat er die bereits zuvor herrschende Lehre bestätigt, der zufolge § 114 AktG auch Beratungsverträge zwischen einem Aufsichtsratsmitglied und einem von der Aktiengesellschaft abhängigen Unternehmen erfasst. Schließlich hat der Bundesgerichtshof seine Rechtsprechung konkretisiert, nach der § 114 AktG auch dann Anwendung findet, wenn die Beratungsleistung nicht von einem Aufsichtsratsmitglied, sondern von einer Gesellschaft erbracht wird, an der das Aufsichtsratsmitglied beteiligt ist, sofern es nur in nicht unerheblichem Umfang an der Vergütung partizipiert. Der vorliegende Beitrag nimmt kritisch zu allen vorgenannten Aspekten des Fresenius-Urteils Stellung.
Der Index verzeichnet Bildtafeln aus folgenden Büchern: Schumm (2008) - Flechten Madeiras, der Kanaren und Azoren; Schumm & Aptroot (2010) - Seychelles Lichen Guide; Schumm (2011) - Kalkflechten der Schäbischen Alb - ein mikroskopisch anatomischer Atlas; Aptroot & Schumm (2011) - Fruticose Roccellaceae - an anatomical-microscopical Atlas and Guide with a worldwide Key and further Notes on some crustose Roccellaceae or similar Lichens; und Schumm & Aptroot (2012) - A microscopical Atlas of some tropical Lichens from SE-Asia (Thailand, Cambodia, Philippines, Vietnam), Volume 1 and Volume 2.
Eine wesentliche Voraussetzung für die Entschlüsselung herrschender Justizverständnisse ist die Auseinandersetzung mit den Rollen, die die beteiligten Akteure in einem Rechtssystem einnehmen sowie die Untersuchung der rechtlichen und institutionellen Bedingungen unter denen diese Akteure handeln. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich zunächst mit der Macht- und Aufgabenverteilung zwischen Richtern und Parteien. Dabei wird deutlich, dass die Rollenallokation nicht einheitlich ist, sondern in Abhängigkeit von unterschiedlichen verfahrensrechtlichen und institutionellen Voraussetzungen variiert. In Verfahren vor einer Jury wird die richterliche Autorität durch eine maximal ausgeprägte Parteiautonomie stark eingeschränkt. Als Rechthonoratioren (im Weberschen Sinne) agieren Richter dagegen immer dann, wenn Sie ohne Geschworene Recht sprechen. Dies geschieht insbesondere in den einzelstaatlichen Obergerichten und den Bundesberufungsgereichten, aber auch in Verfahren erster Instanz, in denen „claims in equity“ zu entscheiden sind. Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich abschließend mit dem Einfluss, den die Besonderheiten der amerikanischen Juristenausbildung auf das amerikanische Justizverständnis ausüben: Sie prägen und reproduzieren eine der Rollen und Selbstbilder unter amerikanischen Juristen, sowohl in der Anwaltschaft als auch auf Seiten der Richter.
Der vorliegende Beitrag leitete das Programm des Workshops „Schlichten und Richten – Differenzierung und Hybridisierung” (Frankfurt/Main, 9./10. Februar 2012) ein. Mit diesem Workshop begann das Arbeitsprogramm des LOEWE–Schwerpunkts „Außergerichtliche und gerichtliche Konfliktlösung“, der am 1. Januar 2012 seine Tätigkeit aufgenommen hatte (siehe hierzu www.konfliktloesung.eu; eine leicht veränderte Fassung des Beitrags in englischer Sprache wird in Kürze abrufbar sein unter: http://www.ssrn.com/link/Max-Planck-Legal-History-RES.html ). Der Ausgangspunkt des Workshops ist eine deutsche Debattentradition, die die Alternativität von gerichtlichen und nichtgerichtlichen, kontradiktorischen oder konsensualen sowie mehr formalisierten und mehr informalisierten Konfliktlösungsformen unter dem Schlagwort „Schlichten oder Richten“ (auch „Schlichten statt Richten“ oder „Schlichten oder Richten“) thematisierte.
Der Beitrag problematisiert zunächst die bisherige mangelnde rechtshistorische Aufmerksamkeit, die Alternativen zur gerichtlichen Konfliktlösung zugewandt wurde. Er weist daraufhin, dass auch die heutige Diskussion über gelungenes Konfliktlösungsmanagement oft explizit oder implizit von – zuweilen nicht ausreichend reflektierten – historischen Vorannahmen geprägt ist und – damit verbunden – von Vorstellungen über rechtskulturelle Fremdheit und Nähe.
Im zweiten und dritten Abschnitt skizziert der Beitrag kurz den historischen Gang der deutschen Diskussion über „Schlichten und Richten“ seit dem Aufkommen auch rechtswissenschaftlich anerkannter Schlichtungsinstitutionen zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts. Er versucht, deren wechselnde zeitgenössische Kontexte sichtbar zu machen und zeigt, wie sich in diesen Diskussionen (zuweilen utopisch scheinende) rechtspolitische Verheißungen ansiedeln konnten, welch fruchtbaren Boden diese Diskussionen aber auch für neue Kategorienbildungen und multidisziplinäre Zugänge bot.
Im vierten Abschnitt wird versucht, Verknüpfungen mit der gegenwärtigen ADR-Diskussionen herzustellen, während im fünften Abschnitt in analytischer Absicht Konfigurationen des Wortpaars „Schlichten“ und „Richten“ vorgestellt werden: „Schlichten“ und „Richten“ als Alternative, als Abhängigkeitsverhältnis und als Abfolge. Der fünfte Abschnitt schließlich fragt nach Funktionselementen und den Funktionsbedingungen von Schlichten und Richten, d.h.: Welche Leitrationalitäten, Partizipationsmechanismen, Legitimationsnarrative und Reflexionsformen lassen sich jeweils der einen oder anderen Form der Konfliktlösung zuordnen.
All diese Überlegungen sind eher tentativer Art und vermitteln nur erste umrisshafte Vorstellungen. Sie dienen in erster Linie dem Diskussionsanstoß und sollen erste Schneisen in dieses komplexe Forschungsfeld schlagen. Die Vortragsform ist beibehalten und der Fußnotenapparat ist auf das nötige Minimum reduziert.
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in turn, has elevated German GDP growth volatility by advanced countries’ standards, keeping domestic consumption growth at surprisingly low levels. As a consequence, despite the size of its economy and important labor market reforms, Germany’s ability to act as global locomotive has been limited. With increasing competition in its traditional areas of manufacturing, a more domestically-driven growth dynamic, especially in the production and delivery of services, will be good for Germany and for the global economy. Absent such an effort, German growth will remain constrained, and Germany will play only a modest role in spurring growth elsewhere.
In this paper we develop empirical measures for the strength of spillover effects. Modifying and extending the framework by Diebold and Yilmaz (2011), we quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area. Spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily CDS spread changes, with exogenous common factors. We account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank CDS spreads and we derive generalised impulse response functions. Specifically, we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a particular sovereign or country-specific bank index to other sovereign or bank CDSs between October 2009 and July 2012. Channels of transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are aggregated as a Contagion index (CI). This index is disentangled into four components, the average potential spillover: i) amongst sovereigns, ii) amongst banks, iii) from sovereigns to banks, and iv) vice-versa. We highlight the impact of policy-related events along the different components of the contagion index. The systemic contribution of each sovereign or banking group is quantified as the net spillover weight in the total net-spillover measure. Finally, the captured time-varying interdependence between banks and sovereigns emphasises the evolution of their strong nexus.
Law making becomes an increasingly important function of the higher courts in civil law matters. This observation leads to the question of whether the law making function is nevertheless carried out in a “classical” legal-principled way or whether the courts increasingly employ a political-formative style. To answer this question, one should not only focus on the content of the courts’ reasoning but also on their procedural-institutional framework. From that perspective, the processing of so-called legislative facts is a key issue in determining the role of courts between legal reasoning and social engineering. The paper shows that Germany, England and the United States pursue different lines in processing legislative facts. Notwithstanding these differences, it seems to be the case that the increasing importance of law making will also change the institutional framework of appellate courts towards a quasi-legislative forum.
We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area data set with a regional breakdown to investigate price changes and suggest a new method to extract factors from over-lapping data blocks. This allows us to separately estimate aggregate, sectoral, country-specific and regional components of price changes. We thereby provide an improved estimate of the sectoral factor in comparison with previous literature, which decomposes price changes into an aggregate and idiosyncratic component only, and interprets the latter as sectoral. We find that the sectoral component explains much less of the variation in sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further contribute to the literature on price setting by providing evidence that country- and region-specific factors play an important role in addition to the sector-specific factors, emphasising heterogeneity of inflation dynamics along different dimensions. We also conclude that sectoral price changes have a “geographical” dimension, that leads to new insights regarding the properties of sectoral price changes.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact focussing primarily on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run. We explore the role of the mix of expenditure cuts and tax reductions as well as gradualism in achieving this policy outcome. Finally, we conduct sensitivity studies regarding the type of model used and its parameterization.
We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persis tence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. Economic theory, however, provides various reasons -for example downward wage rigidities or menu costs- to expect higher inflation persistence at the upper than at the lower tail of the conditional inflation distribution.
Based on post-war US data we indeed find slower mean reversion in response to positive than to negative shocks. We find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. Inflation persistence has decreased and become more homogeneous across quantiles. Persistence at the conditional mean became more informative about the degree of persistence across the entire conditional inflation distribution. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting in response to large positive shocks, our evidence strongly suggests that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile including the upper tail of the conditional inflation distribution.
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Point forecasts of some models are of similar accuracy as the forecasts of nonstructural large dataset methods. Despite their common underlying New Keynesian modeling philosophy, forecasts of different DSGE models turn out to be quite distinct. Weighted forecasts are more precise than forecasts from individual models. The accuracy of a simple average of DSGE model forecasts is comparable to Greenbook projections for medium term horizons. Comparing density forecasts of DSGE models with the actual distribution of observations shows that the models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts.
The withdrawal of foreign capital from emerging countries at the height of the recent financial crisis and its quick return sparked a debate about the impact of capital flow surges on asset markets. This paper addresses the response of property prices to an inflow of foreign capital. For that purpose we estimate a panel VAR on a set of Asian emerging market economies, for which the waves of inflows were particularly pronounced, and identify capital inflow shocks based on sign restrictions. Our results suggest that capital inflow shocks have a significant effect on the appreciation of house prices and equity prices. Capital inflow shocks account for - roughly - twice the portion of overall house price changes they explain in OECD countries. We also address crosscountry differences in the house price responses to shocks, which are most likely due to differences in the monetary policy response to capital inflows.