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"A groundbreaking decision"
(2018)
On average, "young" people underestimate whereas "old" people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. We adopt a Bayesian learning model of ambiguous survival beliefs which replicates these patterns. The model is embedded within a non-expected utility model of life-cycle consumption and saving. Our analysis shows that agents with ambiguous survival beliefs (i) save less than originally planned, (ii) exhibit undersaving at younger ages, and (iii) hold larger amounts of assets in old age than their rational expectations counterparts who correctly assess their survival probabilities. Our ambiguity-driven model therefore simultaneously accounts for three important empirical findings on household saving behavior.
Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neo-additive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet expected utility life-cycle consumption model and calibrate it with data on subjective survival beliefs from the Health and Retirement Study. Our quantitative analysis shows that agents with calibrated neo-additive survival beliefs (i) save less than originally planned, (ii) exhibit undersaving at younger ages, and (iii) hold larger amounts of assets in old age than their rational expectations counterparts who correctly assess their survival chances. Our neo-additive life-cycle model can therefore simultaneously accommodate three important empirical findings on household saving behavior.
Alexander Ludwig: The discussion about lower delayed retirement credits in the German public pension system misses the point. Instead, it would be more important to increase both, delayed retirement credits and early retirement penalties, and to link them to the longer life expectancy of the working population.
Projected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing wages. This decreases welfare for middle aged asset rich households. This paper takes the perspective of the three demographically oldest European nations — France, Germany and Italy — to address three important adjustment channels to dampen these detrimental effects of aging in these countries: investing abroad, endogenous human capital formation and increasing the retirement age. Our quantitative finding is that endogenous human capital formation in combination with an increase in the retirement age has strong implications for economic aggregates and welfare, in particular in the open economy. These adjustments reduce the maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 by about 2.2 percentage points in terms of a consumption equivalent variation.
Anisotropic flow and flow fluctuations of identified hadrons in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV
(2023)
The first measurements of elliptic flow of π±, K±, p+p¯¯¯, K0S, Λ+Λ¯¯¯¯, ϕ, Ξ−+Ξ+, and Ω−+Ω+ using multiparticle cumulants in Pb−Pb collisions at sNN−−−√ = 5.02 TeV are presented. Results obtained with two- (v2{2}) and four-particle cumulants (v2{4}) are shown as a function of transverse momentum, pT, for various collision centrality intervals. Combining the data for both v2{2} and v2{4} also allows us to report the first measurements of the mean elliptic flow, elliptic flow fluctuations, and relative elliptic flow fluctuations for various hadron species. These observables probe the event-by-event eccentricity fluctuations in the initial state and the contributions from the dynamic evolution of the expanding quark-gluon plasma. The characteristic features observed in previous pT-differential anisotropic flow measurements for identified hadrons with two-particle correlations, namely the mass ordering at low pT and the approximate scaling with the number of constituent quarks at intermediate pT, are similarly present in the four-particle correlations and the combinations of v2{2} and v2{4}. In addition, a particle species dependence of flow fluctuations is observed that could indicate a significant contribution from final state hadronic interactions. The comparison between experimental measurements and CoLBT model calculations, which combine the various physics processes of hydrodynamics, quark coalescence, and jet fragmentation, illustrates their importance over a wide pT range.