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Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.
The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.
Largely unnoticed, all life on earth is constantly exposed to low levels of ionizing radiation. Radon, an imperceptible natural occurring radioactive noble gas, contributes as the largest single fraction to radiation exposure from natural sources. For that reason, radon represents a major issue for radiation protection. Nevertheless, radon is also applied for the therapy of inflammatory and degenerative diseases in galleries and spas to many thousand patients a year. In either case, chronic environmental exposure or therapy, the effect of radon on the organism exposed is still under investigation at all levels of interaction. This includes the physical stage of diffusion and energy deposition by radioactive decay of radon and its progeny and the biological stage of initiating and propagating a physiologic response or inducing cancer after chronic exposure. The purpose of this manuscript is to comprehensively review the current knowledge of radon and its progeny on physical background, associated cancer risk and potential therapeutic effects.
This paper addresses the development of performance-based assessment items for ICT skills, skills in dealing with information and communication technologies, a construct which is rather broadly and only operationally defined. Item development followed a construct-driven approach to ensure that test scores could be interpreted as intended. Specifically, ICT-specific knowledge as well as problem-solving and the comprehension of text and graphics were defined as components of ICT skills and cognitive ICT tasks (i.e., accessing, managing, integrating, evaluating, creating). In order to capture the construct in a valid way, design principles for constructing the simulation environment and response format were formulated. To empirically evaluate the very heterogeneous items and detect malfunctioning items, item difficulties were analyzed and behavior-related indicators with item-specific thresholds were developed and applied. The 69 item’s difficulty scores from the Rasch model fell within a comparable range for each cognitive task. Process indicators addressing time use and test-taker interactions were used to analyze whether most test-takers executed the intended processes, exhibited disengagement, or got lost among the items. Most items were capable of eliciting the intended behavior; for the few exceptions, conclusions for item revisions were drawn. The results affirm the utility of the proposed framework for developing and implementing performance-based items to assess ICT skills.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to numerous governments deciding to close schools for several weeks in spring 2020. Empirical evidence on the impact of COVID-19-related school closures on academic achievement is only just emerging. The present work aimed to provide a first systematic overview of evidence-based studies on general and differential effects of COVID-19-related school closures in spring 2020 on student achievement in primary and secondary education. Results indicate a negative effect of school closures on student achievement, specifically in younger students and students from families with low socioeconomic status. Moreover, certain measures can be identified that might mitigate these negative effects. The findings are discussed in the context of their possible consequences for national educational policies when facing future school closures.
This software demonstration presents the possibilities for the construction, administration, and evaluation of criterion- referenced, computerized adaptive and nonadaptive tests with the R-based open-source KAT-HS app. This app enables users to apply the continuous item calibration strategy of Fink, Born, Spoden, and Frey (2018).
Vom Boulevard bis zur seriösen Wochenzeitung, vom Lokalsender bis zu den öffentlich-rechtlichen – Mitte Juni ging eine Wissenschaftsnachricht aus der Goethe-Universität »viral«, die ein ernüchterndes Bild vom Distanzlernen in Pandemiezeiten zeichnete. Ein systematisches Review, das die Ergebnisse einzelner anderer Studien auswertete, hat ergeben, dass Kinder und Jugendliche im ersten Lockdown 2020 im Durchschnitt nicht nur weniger gelernt haben als im Präsenzunterricht, sondern dass ihre Leistungen teilweise auch zurückgegangen sind – »wie nach den Sommerferien«, beschrieb es Studienleiter Prof. Dr. Andreas Frey. Ein Interview mit dem Pädagogischen Psychologen über seine Untersuchungsergebnisse – und die Reaktionen darauf.
An optimized Bayesian hierarchical two-parameter logistic model for small-sample item calibration
(2019)
Accurate item calibration in models of item response theory (IRT) requires rather large samples. For instance, N > 500 respondents are typically recommended for the two-parameter logistic (2PL) model. Hence, this model is considered a large-scale application, and its use in small-sample contexts is limited. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches are frequently proposed to reduce the sample size requirements of the 2PL. This study compared the small-sample performance of an optimized Bayesian hierarchical 2PL (H2PL) model to its standard inverse Wishart specification, its nonhierarchical counterpart, and both unweighted and weighted least squares estimators (ULSMV and WLSMV) in terms of sampling efficiency and accuracy of estimation of the item parameters and their variance components. To alleviate shortcomings of hierarchical models, the optimized H2PL (a) was reparametrized to simplify the sampling process, (b) a strategy was used to separate item parameter covariances and their variance components, and (c) the variance components were given Cauchy and exponential hyperprior distributions. Results show that when combining these elements in the optimized H2PL, accurate item parameter estimates and trait scores are obtained even in sample sizes as small as N = 100. This indicates that the 2PL can also be applied to smaller sample sizes encountered in practice. The results of this study are discussed in the context of a recently proposed multiple imputation method to account for item calibration error in trait estimation.
Simple Summary: The study compares the effects on complete remission rate (CR) of a single dose of durvalumab/tremelimumab immediately after a single-cycle platinum and docetaxel as part of induction therapy for a controlled trial in head and neck cancer with chemotherapy alone from a historical collective. The CR rate was 60.3% after induction chemoimmunotherapy (ICIT; induction chemotherapy plus double immune checkpoint blockade) compared with 40.3% after induction chemotherapy (IC) alone. Patients with HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer may benefit the most from additive double checkpoint inhibition, which is presumably due to the higher amount of infiltrating immune cells. Patients older than 60 years without HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer are unlikely to benefit.
Abstract: To determine whether a single dose of double immune checkpoint blockade (induction chemoimmunotherapy (ICIT)) adds benefit to induction single-cycle platinum doublet (induction chemotherapy (IC)) in locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), patients treated with cisplatin 30 mg/m2 d1-3 and docetaxel 75 mg/m2 d1 combined with durvalumab 1500 mg fixed dose d5 and tremelimumab 75 mg fixed dose d5 (ICIT) within the CheckRad-CD8 trial were compared with a retrospective cohort receiving the same chemotherapy (IC) without immunotherapy. The endpoint of this analysis was the complete response rate (CR). A total of 53 patients were treated with ICIT and 104 patients with IC only. CR rates were 60.3% for ICIT and 40.3% for IC (p = 0.018). In the total population (n = 157), the most important predictor to achieve a CR was treatment type (OR: 2.21 for ICIT vs. IC; p = 0.038, multivariate analysis). The most diverse effects in CR rates between ICIT and IC were observed in younger (age ≤ 60) patients with HPV-positive OPSCCs (82% vs. 33%, p = 0.176), while there was no difference in older patients without HPV-positive OPSCCs (53% vs. 48%). The analysis provides initial evidence that ICIT could result in higher CR rates than IC. Young patients with HPV-positive OPSCCs may have the greatest benefit from additional immune checkpoint inhibitors.
Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on education worldwide. There is increased discussion of possible negative effects on students’ learning outcomes and the need for targeted support. We examined fourth graders’ reading achievement based on a school panel study, representative on the student level, with N = 111 elementary schools in Germany (total: N = 4,290 students, age: 9–10 years). The students were tested with the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study instruments in 2016 and 2021. The analysis focused on (1) total average differences in reading achievement between 2016 and 2021, (2) average differences controlling for student composition, and (3) changes in achievement gaps between student subgroups (i.e., immigration background, socio-cultural capital, and gender). The methodological approach met international standards for the analysis of large-scale assessments (i.e., multiple multi-level imputation, plausible values, and clustered mixed-effect regression). The results showed a substantial decline in mean reading achievement. The decline corresponds to one-third of a year of learning, even after controlling for changes in student composition. We found no statistically significant changes of achievement gaps between student subgroups, despite numerical tendencies toward a widening of achievement gaps between students with and without immigration background. It is likely that this sharp achievement decline was related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings are discussed in terms of further research needs, practical implications for educating current student cohorts, and educational policy decisions regarding actions in crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.