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Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study
(2013)
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest, whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.
Children’s and adolescents’ lives drastically changed during COVID lockdowns worldwide. To compare accident- and injury-related admissions to pediatric intensive care units (PICU) during the first German COVID lockdown with previous years, we conducted a retrospective multicenter study among 37 PICUs (21.5% of German PICU capacities). A total of 1444 admissions after accidents or injuries during the first lockdown period and matched periods of 2017–2019 were reported and standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) were calculated. Total PICU admissions due to accidents/injuries declined from an average of 366 to 346 (SMR 0.95 (CI 0.85–1.05)). Admissions with trauma increased from 196 to 212 (1.07 (0.93–1.23). Traffic accidents and school/kindergarten accidents decreased (0.77 (0.57–1.02 and 0.26 (0.05–0.75)), whereas household and leisure accidents increased (1.33 (1.06–1.66) and 1.34 (1.06–1.67)). Less neurosurgeries and more visceral surgeries were performed (0.69 (0.38–1.16) and 2.09 (1.19–3.39)). Non-accidental non-suicidal injuries declined (0.73 (0.42–1.17)). Suicide attempts increased in adolescent boys (1.38 (0.51–3.02)), but decreased in adolescent girls (0.56 (0.32–0.79)). In summary, changed trauma mechanisms entailed different surgeries compared to previous years. We found no evidence for an increase in child abuse cases requiring intensive care. The increase in suicide attempts among boys demands investigation.
Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon source was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.
Purpose: COVID-19 pandemic had multiple influences on the social, industrial, and medical situation in all affected countries. Measures of obligatory medical confinement were suspensions of scheduled non-emergent surgical procedures and outpatients’ clinics as well as overall access restrictions to hospitals and medical practices. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess if the obligatory confinement (lockdown) had an effect on the number of appendectomies (during and after the period of lockdown).
Methods: This retrospective study was based on anonymized nationwide administrative claims data of the German Local General Sickness Fund (AOK). Patients admitted for diseases of the appendix (ICD-10: K35-K38) or abdominal and pelvic pain (ICD-10: R10) who underwent an appendectomy (OPS: 5-470) were included. The study period included 6 weeks of German lockdown (16 March–26 April 2020) as well as 6 weeks before (03 February–15 March 2020) and after (27 April–07 June 2020). These periods were compared to the respective one in 2018 and 2019.
Results: The overall number of appendectomies was significantly reduced during the lockdown time in 2020 compared to that in 2018 and 2019. This decrease affects only appendectomies due to acute simple (ICD-10: K35.30, K35.8) and non-acute appendicitis (ICD-10: K36-K38, R10). Numbers for appendectomies in acute complex appendicitis remained unchanged. Female patients and in the age group 1–18 years showed the strongest decrease in number of cases.
Conclusion: The lockdown in Germany resulted in a decreased number of appendectomies. This affected mainly appendectomies in simple acute and non-acute appendicitis, but not complicated acute appendicitis. The study gives no evidence that the confinement measures resulted in a deterioration of medical care for appendicitis.