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Elliptic flow from nuclear collisions is a hadronic observable sensitive to the early stages of system evolution. We report first results on elliptic flow of charged particles at midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN] = 130 GeV using the STAR Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The elliptic flow signal, v2, averaged over transverse momentum, reaches values of about 6% for relatively peripheral collisions and decreases for the more central collisions. This can be interpreted as the observation of a higher degree of thermalization than at lower collision energies. Pseudorapidity and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow are also presented.
Use of drug-eluting balloon coronary intervention prior to living donor kidney transplantation
(2014)
Background: Kidney transplantation is the gold standard of therapy in patients with terminal renal insufficiency. Living donor transplantation is a well-established option in this field. Enlarging the donor's pool implicates the acceptance of an increased rate of comorbidities. Among them, coronary artery disease is a growing problem. An increasing number of patients, undergoing living donation, receive antiplatelet therapies due to coronary disease.
Case presentation: Here we report about the perioperative treatment with a drug-eluting balloon in a patient with major cardiac risk factors who underwent kidney transplantation.
Conclusion: At the current time no recommendation can be given for the routine use of drug-eluting balloons.
Only 3 of the 13 species so far comprised in Amphidium were retained in the genus: A lapponicum (Hedw.) Schimp., A. mougeotii (B.S.G.) Schimp. and A. tortuosum (Hornschuch) Cufodontis. Amphidium. sublapponicum (C. Müll.) Broth. is conspecific with A. lapponicum, A. cyathicarpum (Mont.) Broth., A. curvipes (C. Müll.) Broth. and A. californicum (C. Müll.) Broth. are synoymous with A. tortuosum. Amphidium brevifolium Broth., A. clastophyllum Broth. and A. papillosum Broth., all known only from the type locality, are sterile and differ vegetatively from all other species of the genus. They belong probably not to Amphidium. The types of Amphidium letestui Thér. & P. Varde, A. aloysii-sabaudiae Negri and A. remotidens (C. Müll.) Broth. could not be located.
Background: Isolated transient vertigo can be the only symptom of posterior circulation ischemia. Thus, it is important to differentiate isolated vertigo of a cerebrovascular origin from that of more benign origins, as patients with cerebral ischemia have a much higher risk for future stroke than do those with "peripheral" vertigo. The current study aims to identify risk factors for cerebrovascular origin of isolated transient vertigo, and for future cerebrovascular events.
Methods: From the files of 339 outpatients with isolated transient vertigo we extracted history, clinical and technical findings, diagnosis, and follow-up information on subsequent stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Risk factors were analyzed using multivariate regression models (logistic or Cox) and reconfirmed in univariate analyses.
Results: On first presentation, 48 (14.2%) patients received the diagnosis "probable or definite cerebrovascular vertigo". During follow-up, 41 patients suffered stroke or TIA (event rate 7.9 per 100 person years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5–10.4), 26 in the posterior circulation (event rate 4.8 per 100 person years, 95% CI 3.0–6.7). The diagnosis was not associated with follow-up cerebrovascular events. In multivariate models testing multiple potential determinants, only the presentation mode was consistently associated with the diagnosis and stroke risk: patients who presented because of vertigo (rather than reporting vertigo when they presented for other reasons) had a significantly higher risk for future stroke or TIA (p = 0.028, event rate 13.4 vs. 5.4 per 100 person years) and for future posterior circulation stroke or TIA (p = 0.044, event rate 7.8 vs. 3.5 per 100 person years).
Conclusions: We here report for the first time follow-up stroke rates in patients with transient isolated vertigo. In such patients, the identification of those with cerebrovascular origin remains difficult, and presentation mode was found to be the only consistent risk factor. Confirmation in an independent prospective sample is needed.
Introduction: Organ dysfunction or failure after the first days of ICU treatment and subsequent mortality with respect to the type of intensive care unit (ICU) admission is poorly elucidated. Therefore we analyzed the association of ICU mortality and admission for medical (M), scheduled surgery (ScS) or unscheduled surgery (US) patients mirrored by the occurrence of organ dysfunction/failure (OD/OF) after the first 72h of ICU stay.
Methods: For this retrospective cohort study (23,795 patients; DIVI registry; German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care Medicine (DIVI)) organ dysfunction or failure were derived from the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (excluding the Glasgow Coma Scale). SOFA scores were collected on admission to ICU and 72h later. For patients with a length of stay of at least five days, a multivariate analysis was performed for individual OD/OF on day three.
Results: M patients had the lowest prevalence of cardiovascular failure (M 31%; ScS 35%; US 38%), and the highest prevalence of respiratory (M 24%; ScS 13%; US 17%) and renal failure (M 10%; ScS 6%; US 7%). Risk of death was highest for M- and ScS-patients in those with respiratory failure (OR; M 2.4; ScS 2.4; US 1.4) and for surgical patients with renal failure (OR; M 1.7; ScS 2.7; US 2.4).
Conclusion: The dynamic evolution of OD/OF within 72h after ICU admission and mortality differed between patients depending on their types of admission. This has to be considered to exclude a systematic bias during multi-center trials.
Echovirus-30 (E-30) is a non-polio enterovirus responsible for meningitis outbreaks in children worldwide. To gain access to the central nervous system (CNS), E-30 first has to cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB) or the blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier (BCSFB). E-30 may use lipid rafts of the host cells to interact with and to invade the BCSFB. To study enteroviral infection of the BCSFB, an established in vitro model based on human immortalized brain choroid plexus papilloma (HIBCPP) cells has been used. Here, we investigated the impact of E-30 infection on the protein content of the lipid rafts at the BCSFB in vitro. Mass spectrometry analysis following E-30 infection versus uninfected conditions revealed differential abundancy in proteins implicated in cellular adhesion, cytoskeleton remodeling, and endocytosis/vesicle budding. Further, we evaluated the blocking of endocytosis via clathrin/dynamin blocking and its consequences for E-30 induced barrier disruption. Interestingly, blocking of endocytosis had no impact on the capacity of E-30 to induce loss of barrier properties in HIBCPP cells. Altogether, these data highlight the impact of E-30 on HIBCPP cells microdomain as an important factor for host cell alteration.
Background: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is a therapeutic option for patients with aortic valve stenosis at increased surgical risk. Telomeres are an established marker for cellular senescence and have served to evaluate cardiovascular diseases including severe aortic valve stenosis. In our study, we hypothesized that telomere length may be a predictor for outcome and associated with comorbidities in patients with TAVR.
Methods and results: We analyzed leucocyte telomere length from 155 patients who underwent TAVR and correlated the results with 1-year mortality and severe comorbidities. The cohort was subdivided into 3 groups according to telomere length. Although a trend for a positive correlation of telomere length with a lower EuroSCORE could be found, telomere length was not associated with survival, aortic valve opening area or cardiovascular comorbidities (peripheral, coronary or cerebrovascular disease). Interestingly, long telomeres were significantly correlated to a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).
Conclusion: In elderly patients with severe aortic valve stenosis, leucocyte telomere length did not predict post-procedural survival. The correlation between long telomere length and reduced LVEF in these patients deserves further attention.
Background: Obesity and depression are both associated with changes in sleep/wake regulation, with potential implications for individualized treatment especially in comorbid individuals suffering from both. However, the associations between obesity, depression, and subjective, questionnaire-based and objective, EEG-based measurements of sleepiness used to assess disturbed sleep/wake regulation in clinical practice are not well known.
Objectives: The study investigates associations between sleep/wake regulation measures based on self-reported subjective questionnaires and EEG-derived measurements of sleep/wake regulation patterns with depression and obesity and how/whether depression and/or obesity affect associations between such self-reported subjective questionnaires and EEG-derived measurements.
Methods: Healthy controls (HC, NHC = 66), normal-weighted depressed (DEP, NDEP = 16), non-depressed obese (OB, NOB = 68), and obese depressed patients (OBDEP, NOBDEP = 43) were included from the OBDEP (Obesity and Depression, University Leipzig, Germany) study. All subjects completed standardized questionnaires related to daytime sleepiness (ESS), sleep quality and sleep duration once as well as questionnaires related to situational sleepiness (KSS, SSS, VAS) before and after a 20 min resting state EEG in eyes-closed condition. EEG-based measurements of objective sleepiness were extracted by the VIGALL algorithm. Associations of subjective sleepiness with objective sleepiness and moderating effects of obesity, depression, and additional confounders were investigated by correlation analyses and regression analyses.
Results: Depressed and non-depressed subgroups differed significantly in most subjective sleepiness measures, while obese and non-obese subgroups only differed significantly in few. Objective sleepiness measures did not differ significantly between the subgroups. Moderating effects of obesity and/or depression on the associations between subjective and objective measures of sleepiness were rarely significant, but associations between subjective and objective measures of sleepiness in the depressed subgroup were systematically weaker when patients comorbidly suffered from obesity than when they did not.
Conclusion: This study provides some evidence that both depression and obesity can affect the association between objective and subjective sleepiness. If confirmed, this insight may have implications for individualized diagnosis and treatment approaches in comorbid depression and obesity.
The Masquelet technique for the treatment of large bone defects is a two-stage procedure based on an induced membrane. We eliminate the first surgical step by using a decellularized dermal skin graft (Epiflex®) populated with bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMC), as a replacement for the induced membrane. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of this technology and provide evidence of equivalent bone healing in comparison to the induced membrane-technique. Therefore, 112 male Sprague–Dawley rats were allocated in six groups and received a 10 mm femoral defect. Defects were treated with either the induced membrane or decellularized dermis, with or without the addition of BMC. Defects were then filled with a scaffold (β-TCP), with or without BMC. After a healing time of eight weeks, femurs were taken for histological, radiological and biomechanical analysis. Defects treated with Epiflex® showed increased mineralization and bone formation predominantly in the transplanted dermis surrounding the defect. No significant decrease of biomechanical properties was found. Vascularization of the defect could be enhanced by addition of BMC. Considering the dramatic reduction of a patient’s burden by the reduced surgical stress and shortened time of treatment, this technique could have a great impact on clinical practice.
Although chest radiograph (CXR) is commonly used in diagnosing pediatric community acquired pneumonia (pCAP), limited data on interobserver agreement among radiologists exist. PedCAPNETZ is a prospective, observational, and multicenter study on pCAP. N = 233 CXR from patients with clinical diagnosis of pCAP were retrieved and n = 12 CXR without pathological findings were added. All CXR were interpreted by a radiologist at the site of recruitment and by two external, blinded pediatric radiologists. To evaluate interobserver agreement, the reporting of presence or absence of pCAP in CXR was analyzed, and prevalence and bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK) statistical testing was applied. Overall, n = 190 (82%) of CXR were confirmed as pCAP by two external pediatric radiologists. Compared with patients with pCAP negative CXR, patients with CXR-confirmed pCAP displayed higher C-reactive protein levels and a longer duration of symptoms before enrollment (p < .007). Further parameters, that is, age, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation showed no significant difference. The interobserver agreement between the onsite radiologists and each of the two independent pediatric radiologists for the presence of pCAP was poor to fair (69%; PABAK = 0.39% and 76%; PABAK = 0.53, respectively). The concordance between the external radiologists was fair (81%; PABAK = 0.62). With regard to typical CXR findings for pCAP, chance corrected interrater agreement was highest for pleural effusions, infiltrates, and consolidations and lowest for interstitial patterns and peribronchial thickening. Our data show a poor interobserver agreement in the CXR-based diagnosis of pCAP and emphasized the need for harmonized interpretation standards.
Purpose: Physical activity is associated with altered levels of circulating microRNAs (ci-miRNAs). Changes in miRNA expression have great potential to modulate biological pathways of skeletal muscle hypertrophy and metabolism. This study was designed to determine whether the profile of ci-miRNAs is altered after different approaches of endurance exercise. Methods: Eighteen healthy volunteers (aged 24 ± 3 years) participated this three-arm, randomized-balanced crossover study. Each arm was a single bout of treadmill-based acute endurance exercise at (1) 100% of the individual anaerobic threshold (IANS), (2) at 80% of the IANS and (3) at 80% of the IANS with blood flow restriction (BFR). Load-associated outcomes (fatigue, feeling, heart rate, and exhaustion) as well as acute effects (circulating miRNA patterns and lactate) were determined. Results: All training interventions increased the lactate concentration (LC) and heart rate (HR) (p < 0.001). The high-intensity intervention (HI) resulted in a higher LC than both lower intensity protocols (p < 0.001). The low-intensity blood flow restriction (LI-BFR) protocol led to a higher HR and higher LC than the low-intensity (LI) protocol without BFR (p = 0.037 and p = 0.003). The level of miR-142-5p and miR-197-3p were up-regulated in both interventions without BFR (p < 0.05). After LI exercise, the expression of miR-342-3p was up-regulated (p = 0.038). In LI-BFR, the level of miR-342-3p and miR-424-5p was confirmed to be up-regulated (p < 0.05). Three miRNAs and LC show a significant negative correlation (miR-99a-5p, p = 0.011, r = − 0.343/miR-199a-3p, p = 0.045, r = − 0.274/miR-125b-5p, p = 0.026, r = − 0.302). Two partial correlations (intervention partialized) showed a systematic impact of the type of exercise (LI-BFR vs. HI) (miR-99a-59: r = − 0.280/miR-199a-3p: r = − 0.293). Conclusion: MiRNA expression patterns differ according to type of activity. We concluded that not only the intensity of the exercise (LC) is decisive for the release of circulating miRNAs—as essential is the type of training and the oxygen supply.
Neurogenic dysphagia is one of the most frequent and prognostically relevant neurological deficits in a variety of disorders, such as stroke, parkinsonism and advanced neuromuscular diseases. Flexible endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES) is now probably the most frequently used tool for objective dysphagia assessment in Germany. It allows evaluation of the efficacy and safety of swallowing, determination of appropriate feeding strategies and assessment of the efficacy of different swallowing manoeuvres. The literature furthermore indicates that FEES is a safe and well-tolerated procedure. In spite of the huge demand for qualified dysphagia diagnostics in neurology, a systematic FEES education has not yet been established. The structured training curriculum presented in this article aims to close this gap and intends to enforce a robust and qualified FEES service. As management of neurogenic dysphagia is not confined to neurologists, this educational programme is applicable to other clinicians and speech–language therapists with expertise in dysphagia as well. The systematic education in carrying out FEES across a variety of different professions proposed by this curriculum will help to spread this instrumental approach and to improve dysphagia management.
Following votes in the Coniacian Working Group, the Cretaceous Subcommission and the International Commission on Stratigraphy, on May 1st, 2021, the International Union of Geological Sciences voted unanimously to ratify the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) proposal for the base of the Coniacian Stage of the Upper Cretaceous Series and Cretaceous System. The lower boundary of the Coniacian Stage is placed at the base of Bed 46 of the Salzgitter-Salder section in northern Germany. The boundary is defined by the first appearance of the inoceramid bivalve species Cremnoceramus deformis erectus (Meek) and complemented by the Navigation carbon isotope event. Additional data include the bivalve genus Didymotis, foraminifera, ammonite, nannofossil and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst events. Three auxiliary sections (Słupia Nadbrzeżna, central Poland; Střeleč, Czech Republic; El Rosario, NE Mexico) supplement the details of the boundary record in various facies, and in differing geographic and biogeographic contexts.
Mutations of the isocitrate dehydrogenase-1 (IDH1) and IDH2 genes are among the most frequent alterations in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and can be found in ∼20% of patients at diagnosis. Among 4930 patients (median age, 56 years; interquartile range, 45-66) with newly diagnosed, intensively treated AML, we identified IDH1 mutations in 423 (8.6%) and IDH2 mutations in 575 (11.7%). Overall, there were no differences in response rates or survival for patients with mutations in IDH1 or IDH2 compared with patients without mutated IDH1/2. However, distinct clinical and comutational phenotypes of the most common subtypes of IDH1/2 mutations could be associated with differences in outcome. IDH1-R132C was associated with increased age, lower white blood cell (WBC) count, less frequent comutation of NPM1 and FLT3 internal tandem mutation (ITD) as well as with lower rate of complete remission and a trend toward reduced overall survival (OS) compared with other IDH1 mutation variants and wild-type (WT) IDH1/2. In our analysis, IDH2-R172K was associated with significantly lower WBC count, more karyotype abnormalities, and less frequent comutations of NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD. Among patients within the European LeukemiaNet 2017 intermediate- and adverse-risk groups, relapse-free survival and OS were significantly better for those with IDH2-R172K compared with WT IDH, providing evidence that AML with IDH2-R172K could be a distinct entity with a specific comutation pattern and favorable outcome. In summary, the presented data from a large cohort of patients with IDH1/2 mutated AML indicate novel and clinically relevant findings for the most common IDH mutation subtypes.
BACKGROUND: Recent findings support the idea that interleukin (IL)-22 serum levels are related to disease severity in end-stage liver disease. Existing scoring systems--Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Survival Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation (SOFT) and Pre-allocation-SOFT (P-SOFT)--are well-established in appraising survival rates with or without liver transplantation. We tested the hypothesis that IL-22 serum levels at transplantation date correlate with survival and potentially have value as a predictive factor for survival.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: MELD, SOFT, and P-SOFT scores were calculated to estimate post-transplantation survival. Serum levels of IL-22, IL-6, IL-10, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) were collected prior to transplantation in 41 patients. Outcomes were assessed at 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years after transplantation.
RESULTS: IL-22 significantly correlated with MELD, P-SOFT, and SOFT scores (Rs 0.35, 0.63, 0.56 respectively, p<0.05) and with the discrimination in post-transplantation survival. IL-6 showed a heterogeneous pattern (Rs 0.40, 0.63, 0.57, respectively, p<0.05); CRP and PCT did not correlate. We therefore added IL-22 serum values to existing scoring systems in a generalized linear model (GLM), resulting in a significantly improved outcome prediction in 58% of the cases for both the P-SOFT (p<0.01) and SOFT scores (p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to address the concept that IL-22 serum values at the time of transplantation provide valuable information about survival rates following orthotopic liver transplantation.
Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is caused by recurrent somatic mutations leading to clonal blood cell expansion. However, direct evidence of the fitness of CHIP-mutated human hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in blood reconstitution is lacking. Because myeloablative treatment and transplantation enforce stress on HSCs, we followed 81 patients with solid tumors or lymphoid diseases undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) for the development of CHIP. We found a high incidence of CHIP (22%) after ASCT with a high mean variant allele frequency (VAF) of 10.7%. Most mutations were already present in the graft, albeit at lower VAFs, demonstrating a selective reconstitution advantage of mutated HSCs after ASCT. However, patients with CHIP mutations in DNA-damage response genes showed delayed neutrophil reconstitution. Thus, CHIP-mutated stem and progenitor cells largely gain on clone size upon ASCT-related blood reconstitution, leading to an increased future risk of CHIP-associated complications.
Background: Autism spectrum disorder (“autism”) is a highly heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition with few effective treatments for core and associated features. To make progress we need to both identify and validate neural markers that help to parse heterogeneity to tailor therapies to specific neurobiological profiles. Atypical hemispheric lateralization is a stable feature across studies in autism, but its potential as a neural stratification marker has not been widely examined. Methods: In order to dissect heterogeneity in lateralization in autism, we used the large EU-AIMS (European Autism Interventions—A Multicentre Study for Developing New Medications) Longitudinal European Autism Project dataset comprising 352 individuals with autism and 233 neurotypical control subjects as well as a replication dataset from ABIDE (Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange) (513 individuals with autism, 691 neurotypical subjects) using a promising approach that moves beyond mean group comparisons. We derived gray matter voxelwise laterality values for each subject and modeled individual deviations from the normative pattern of brain laterality across age using normative modeling. Results: Individuals with autism had highly individualized patterns of both extreme right- and leftward deviations, particularly in language, motor, and visuospatial regions, associated with symptom severity. Language delay explained most variance in extreme rightward patterns, whereas core autism symptom severity explained most variance in extreme leftward patterns. Follow-up analyses showed that a stepwise pattern emerged, with individuals with autism with language delay showing more pronounced rightward deviations than individuals with autism without language delay. Conclusions: Our analyses corroborate the need for novel (dimensional) approaches to delineate the heterogeneous neuroanatomy in autism and indicate that atypical lateralization may constitute a neurophenotype for clinically meaningful stratification in autism.
NMR spectroscopy is a potent method for the structural and biophysical characterization of RNAs. The application of NMR spectroscopy is restricted in RNA size and most often requires isotope‐labeled or even selectively labeled RNAs. Additionally, new NMR pulse sequences, such as the heteronuclear‐detected NMR experiments, are introduced. We herein provide detailed protocols for the preparation of isotope‐labeled RNA for NMR spectroscopy via in vitro transcription. This protocol covers all steps, from the preparation of DNA template to the transcription of milligram RNA quantities. Moreover, we present a protocol for a chemo‐enzymatic approach to introduce a single modified nucleotide at any position of any RNA. Regarding NMR methodology, we share protocols for the implementation of a suite of heteronuclear‐detected NMR experiments including 13C‐detected experiments for ribose assignment and amino groups, the CN‐spin filter heteronuclear single quantum coherence (HSQC) for imino groups and the 15N‐detected band‐selective excitation short transient transverse‐relaxation‐optimized spectroscopy (BEST‐TROSY) experiment.
Basic Protocol 1: Preparation of isotope‐labeled RNA samples with in vitro transcription using T7 RNAP, DEAE chromatography, and RP‐HPLC purification
Alternate Protocol 1: Purification of isotope‐labeled RNA from in vitro transcription with preparative PAGE
Alternate Protocol 2: Purification of isotope‐labeled RNA samples from in vitro transcription via centrifugal concentration
Support Protocol 1: Preparation of DNA template from plasmid
Support Protocol 2: Preparation of PCR DNA as template
Support Protocol 3: Preparation of T7 RNA Polymerase (T7 RNAP)
Support Protocol 4: Preparation of yeast inorganic pyrophosphatase (YIPP)
Basic Protocol 2: Preparation of site‐specific labeled RNAs using a chemo‐enzymatic synthesis
Support Protocol 5: Synthesis of modified nucleoside 3′,5′‐bisphosphates
Support Protocol 6: Preparation of T4 RNA Ligase 2
Support Protocol 7: Setup of NMR spectrometer for heteronuclear‐detected NMR experiments
Support Protocol 8: IPAP and DIPAP for homonuclear decoupling
Basic Protocol 3: 13C‐detected 3D (H)CC‐TOCSY, (H)CPC, and (H)CPC‐CCH‐TOCSY experiments for ribose assignment
Basic Protocol 4: 13C‐detected 2D CN‐spin filter HSQC experiment
Basic Protocol 5: 13C‐detected C(N)H‐HDQC experiment for the detection of amino groups
Support Protocol 9: 13C‐detected CN‐HSQC experiment for amino groups
Basic Protocol 6: 13C‐detected “amino”‐NOESY experiment
Basic Protocol 7: 15N‐detected BEST‐TROSY experiment
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
In order to achieve climate change mitigation, long-term decisions are required that must be reconciled with other societal goals that draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of crop land, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. Here, we show that current impact-model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and propose a new risk-assessment and decision framework that accounts for competing interests.
Based on cross-sectorally consistent simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we discuss potential gains and limitations of additional irrigation and trade-offs of the expansion of agricultural land as two possible response measures to climate change and growing food demand. We describe an illustrative example in which the combination of both measures may close the supply demand gap while leading to a loss of approximately half of all natural carbon sinks.
We highlight current limitations of available simulations and additional steps required for a comprehensive risk assessment.