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Institute
The coronavirus has led to a human tragedy, but it need not end up in an economic catastrophe.
In Southern Europe there are signs of a silver lining: the growth rate of the total number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus has been decreasing for weeks in Italy and Spain.
While the effect of the connement measures aim at limiting the spread of the virus is at best uncertain, the economic and social costs of a prolonged lockdown are much less ambiguous and potentially huge. Importantly, these costs can be very unequally distributed.
We argue that it is therefore time to start thinking about how to gradually unlock these countries, and we make some suggestions along this line starting with large-scale testing and continuous re-testing as the most useful pre-condition.
We extend the canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk to shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis, to which we refer as higher- order risk. We estimate our extended income process by GMM for household data from the United States. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. All shock distributions are highly leptokurtic. The existing tax and transfer system reduces dispersion and left-skewness of shocks. We then show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher-order risk has sizable welfare implications, which depend crucially on risk attitudes of households; second, higher-order risk matters quantitatively for the welfare costs of cyclical idiosyncratic risk; third, higher-order risk has non-trivial implications for the degree of self-insurance against both transitory and persistent shocks.
Frankfurt am Main im Oktober 1981. Jacob Taubes spaziert über die Buchmesse. Am Stand des Verlages, dem er schon lange Zeit als wissenschaftlicher Berater dient, macht der Berliner Religionswissenschaftler eine Entdeckung. Sein Freund, der Philosoph Hans Blumenberg, hat bei Suhrkamp ein neues Buch veröffentlicht. Es trägt den Titel 'Die Lesbarkeit der Welt' und es handelt von dem Buch, das alle Bücher der Buchmesse, ja alle vergangenen, gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen Bücher umfasst, es handelt vom Buch der Welt als Metapher "für das Ganze der Erfahrbarkeit". Taubes wird neugierig. Er blättert, liest sich fest, kommt bis Seite 19. Dann: ein Druckfehler. Taubes, dem Blumenberg über Jahre die kalte Schulter gezeigt hat, denkt nach, schmunzelt vielleicht, macht sich Notizen. Zu Hause greift er sich eine Postkarte und schreibt nach Altenberge bei Münster, sein, Blumenbergs, neues Buch sei "[s]pannend wie ein Roman". Er philosophiere historice und critice, dies gegen den Kollegen Henrich in Heidelberg. Und, ach ja, sein Buch enthalte einen Druckfehler, auf Seite 19 steht: "Boch"; die ganze Passage bei Blumenberg lautet: "Die Frage, wie denn in diesem Buch der Natur gelesen werden könne, in welcher Sprache es geschrieben sei und wie man ihre Grammatik herauszufinden hätte, schiebt sich erst über die metaphorische Grundschicht der Bücherkonkurrenz, in der primär Buch neben Boch, sekundär Buch gegen Buch steht."
We present results on transverse momentum (pT) and rapidity (y) differential production cross sections, mean transverse momentum and mean transverse momentum square of inclusive J/ψ and ψ(2S) at forward rapidity (2.5 < y < 4) as well as ψ(2S)-to-J/ψ cross section ratios. These quantities are measured in pp collisions at center of mass energies s√=5.02 and 13 TeV with the ALICE detector. Both charmonium states are reconstructed in the dimuon decay channel, using the muon spectrometer. A comprehensive comparison to inclusive charmonium cross sections measured at s√=2.76, 7 and 8 TeV is performed. A comparison to non-relativistic quantum chromodynamics and fixed-order next-to-leading logarithm calculations, which describe prompt and non-prompt charmonium production respectively, is also presented. A good description of the data is obtained over the full pT range, provided that both contributions are summed. In particular, it is found that for pT > 15 GeV/c the non-prompt contribution reaches up to 50% of the total charmonium yield.
The production of beauty hadrons was measured via semi-leptonic decays at mid-rapidity with the ALICE detector at the LHC in the transverse momentum interval 1<p T < 8 GeV/c in minimum-bias p-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV and in 1.3 < p T < 8 GeV/c in the 20% most central Pb-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=2.76 TeV. The pp reference spectra at sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV and s√=2.76 TeV, needed for the calculation of the nuclear modification factors R pPb and R PbPb, were obtained by a pQCD-driven scaling of the cross section of electrons from beauty-hadron decays measured at s√=7 TeV. In the p T interval 3 < p T < 8 GeV/c, a suppression of the yield of electrons from beauty-hadron decays is observed in Pb-Pb compared to pp collisions. Towards lower p T, the R PbPb values increase with large systematic uncertainties. The R pPb is consistent with unity within systematic uncertainties and is well described by theoretical calculations that include cold nuclear matter effects in p-Pb collisions. The measured R pPb and these calculations indicate that cold nuclear matter effects are small at high transverse momentum also in Pb-Pb collisions. Therefore, the observed reduction of R PbPb below unity at high p T may be ascribed to an effect of the hot and dense medium formed in Pb-Pb collisions.
We present the charged-particle pseudorapidity density in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV in centrality classes measured by ALICE. The measurement covers a wide pseudorapidity range from −3.5 to 5, which is sufficient for reliable estimates of the total number of charged particles produced in the collisions. For the most central (0–5%) collisions we find 21 400 ± 1 300, while for the most peripheral (80–90%) we find 230 ± 38. This corresponds to an increase of (27 ± 4)% over the results at √sNN = 2.76 TeV previously reported by ALICE. The energy dependence of the total number of charged particles produced in heavy-ion collisions is found to obey a modified power-law like behaviour. The chargedparticle pseudorapidity density of the most central collisions is compared to model calculations — none of which fully describes the measured distribution. We also present an estimate of the rapidity density of charged particles. The width of that distribution is found to exhibit a remarkable proportionality to the beam rapidity, independent of the collision energy from the top SPS to LHC energies.
Two-particle angular correlations were measured in pp collisions at s√=7 TeV for pions, kaons, protons, and lambdas, for all particle/anti-particle combinations in the pair. Data for mesons exhibit an expected peak dominated by effects associated with mini-jets and are well reproduced by general purpose Monte Carlo generators. However, for baryon–baryon and anti-baryon–anti-baryon pairs, where both particles have the same baryon number, a near-side anti-correlation structure is observed instead of a peak. This effect is interpreted in the context of baryon production mechanisms in the fragmentation process. It currently presents a challenge to Monte Carlo models and its origin remains an open question.
The invariant differential cross sections for inclusive π0 and η mesons at midrapidity were measured in pp collisions at s√=2.76 TeV for transverse momenta 0.4<pT<40 GeV/c and 0.6<pT<20 GeV/c, respectively, using the ALICE detector. This large range in pT was achieved by combining various analysis techniques and different triggers involving the electromagnetic calorimeter (EMCal). In particular, a new single-cluster, shower-shape based method was developed for the identification of high-pT neutral pions, which exploits that the showers originating from their decay photons overlap in the EMCal. Above 4 GeV/c, the measured cross sections are found to exhibit a similar power-law behavior with an exponent of about 6.3. Next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD calculations differ from the measured cross sections by about 30% for the π0, and between 30–50% for the η meson, while generator-level simulations with PYTHIA 8.2 describe the data to better than 10–30%, except at pT<1 GeV/c. The new data can therefore be used to further improve the theoretical description of π0 and η meson production.
Electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays (charm and beauty) were measured with the ALICE detector in Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass of energy √sNN = 2.76 TeV. The transverse momentum (pT) differential production yields at mid-rapidity were used to calculate the nuclear modification factor RAA in the interval 3 < pT < 18 GeV/c. The RAA shows a strong suppression compared to binary scaling of pp collisions at the same energy (up to a factor of 4) in the 10% most central Pb–Pb collisions. There is a centrality trend of suppression, and a weaker suppression (down to a factor of 2) in semi-peripheral (50–80%) collisions is observed. The suppression of electrons in this broad pT interval indicates that both charm and beauty quarks lose energy when they traverse the hot medium formed in Pb–Pb collisions at LHC.