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The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.
During winter 2015/2016, the Arctic stratosphere was characterized by extraordinarily low temperatures in connection with a very strong polar vortex and with the occurrence of extensive polar stratospheric clouds. From mid-December 2015 until mid-March 2016, the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft) was deployed to probe the lowermost stratosphere in the Arctic region within the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) mission. More than 20 flights have been conducted out of Kiruna, Sweden, and Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, covering the whole winter period. Besides total reactive nitrogen (NOy), observations of nitrous oxide, nitric acid, ozone, and water were used for this study. Total reactive nitrogen and its partitioning between the gas and particle phases are key parameters for understanding processes controlling the ozone budget in the polar winter stratosphere. The vertical redistribution of total reactive nitrogen was evaluated by using tracer–tracer correlations (NOy–N2O and NOy–O3). The trace gases are well correlated as long as the NOy distribution is controlled by its gas-phase production from N2O. Deviations of the observed NOy from this correlation indicate the influence of heterogeneous processes. In early winter no such deviations have been observed. In January, however, air masses with extensive nitrification were encountered at altitudes between 12 and 15 km. The excess NOy amounted to about 6 ppb. During several flights, along with gas-phase nitrification, indications for extensive occurrence of nitric acid containing particles at flight altitude were found. These observations support the assumption of sedimentation and subsequent evaporation of nitric acid-containing particles, leading to redistribution of total reactive nitrogen at lower altitudes. Remnants of nitrified air masses have been observed until mid-March. Between the end of February and mid-March, denitrified air masses have also been observed in connection with high potential temperatures. This indicates the downward transport of air masses that have been denitrified during the earlier winter phase. Using tracer–tracer correlations, missing total reactive nitrogen was estimated to amount to 6 ppb. Further, indications of transport and mixing of these processed air masses outside the vortex have been found, contributing to the chemical budget of the winter lowermost stratosphere. Observations within POLSTRACC, at the bottom of the vortex, reflect heterogeneous processes from the overlying Arctic winter stratosphere. The comparison of the observations with CLaMS model simulations confirm and complete the picture arising from the present measurements. The simulations confirm that the ensemble of all observations is representative of the vortex-wide vertical NOy redistribution.
This paper investigates the global stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is based on simulations of stratospheric mean age of air, including the full age spectrum, with the Lagrangian transport model CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere), driven by reanalysis winds and total diabatic heating rates. ERA5-based results are compared to results based on the preceding ERA-Interim reanalysis. Our results show a significantly slower BDC for ERA5 than for ERA-Interim, manifesting in weaker diabatic heating rates and higher age of air. In the tropical lower stratosphere, heating rates are 30 %–40 % weaker in ERA5, likely correcting a bias in ERA-Interim. At 20 km and in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere, ERA5 age values are around the upper margin of the uncertainty range from historical tracer observations, indicating a somewhat slow–biased BDC. The age trend in ERA5 over the 1989–2018 period is negative throughout the stratosphere, as climate models predict in response to global warming. However, the age decrease is not linear but steplike, potentially caused by multi-annual variability or changes in the observations included in the assimilation. During the 2002–2012 period, the ERA5 age shows a similar hemispheric dipole trend pattern as ERA-Interim, with age increasing in the NH and decreasing in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Shifts in the age spectrum peak and residual circulation transit times indicate that reanalysis differences in age are likely caused by differences in the residual circulation. In particular, the shallow BDC branch accelerates in both reanalyses, whereas the deep branch accelerates in ERA5 and decelerates in ERA-Interim.