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Background: Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes. Methods: A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported. Results: 1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models. Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
The pT-differential inclusive production cross section of the prompt charm-strange meson Ds+ in the rapidity range |y|<0.5 was measured in proton–proton collisions at s=7 TeV at the LHC using the ALICE detector. The analysis was performed on a data sample of 2.98×108 events collected with a minimum-bias trigger. The corresponding integrated luminosity is Lint=4.8 nb−1. Reconstructing the decay Ds+→ϕπ+, with ϕ→K−K+, and its charge conjugate, about 480 Ds± mesons were counted, after selection cuts, in the transverse momentum range 2<pT<12 GeV/c. The results are compared with predictions from models based on perturbative QCD. The ratios of the cross sections of four D meson species (namely D0, D+, D⁎+ and Ds+) were determined both as a function of pT and integrated over pT after extrapolating to full pT range, together with the strangeness suppression factor in charm fragmentation. The obtained values are found to be compatible within uncertainties with those measured by other experiments in e+e−, ep and pp interactions at various centre-of-mass energies.
Identical neutral kaon pair correlations are measured in √s=7 TeV pp collisions in the ALICE experiment. One-dimensional Ks0Ks0 correlation functions in terms of the invariant momentum difference of kaon pairs are formed in two multiplicity and two transverse momentum ranges. The femtoscopic parameters for the radius and correlation strength of the kaon source are extracted. The fit includes quantum statistics and final-state interactions of the a0/f0 resonance. Ks0Ks0 correlations show an increase in radius for increasing multiplicity and a slight decrease in radius for increasing transverse mass, mT, as seen in ππ correlations in pp collisions and in heavy-ion collisions. Transverse mass scaling is observed between the Ks0Ks0 and ππ radii. Also, the first observation is made of the decay of the f2′(1525) meson into the Ks0Ks0 channel in pp collisions.
The ALICE Collaboration has made the first measurement at the LHC of J/ψ photoproduction in ultra-peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV. The J/ψ is identified via its dimuon decay in the forward rapidity region with the muon spectrometer for events where the hadronic activity is required to be minimal. The analysis is based on an event sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 55 μb−1. The cross section for coherent J/ψ production in the rapidity interval −3.6<y<−2.6 is measured to be dσJ/ψcoh/dy=1.00±0.18(stat)−0.26+0.24(syst) mb. The result is compared to theoretical models for coherent J/ψ production and found to be in good agreement with those models which include nuclear gluon shadowing.
The ALICE experiment has measured low-mass dimuon production in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV in the dimuon rapidity region 2.5<y<4. The observed dimuon mass spectrum is described as a superposition of resonance decays (η,ρ,ω,η′,ϕ) into muons and semi-leptonic decays of charmed mesons. The measured production cross sections for ω and ϕ are σω(1<pt<5 GeV/c,2.5<y<4)=5.28±0.54(stat)±0.49(syst) mb and σϕ(1<pt<5 GeV/c,2.5<y<4)=0.940±0.084(stat)±0.076(syst) mb. The differential cross sections d2σ/dydpt are extracted as a function of pt for ω and ϕ. The ratio between the ρ and ω cross section is obtained. Results for the ϕ are compared with other measurements at the same energy and with predictions by models.
The ALICE Collaboration reports the measurement of the relative J/ψ yield as a function of charged particle pseudorapidity density dNch/dη in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV at the LHC. J/ψ particles are detected for pt>0, in the rapidity interval |y|<0.9 via decay into e+e−, and in the interval 2.5<y<4.0 via decay into μ+μ− pairs. An approximately linear increase of the J/ψ yields normalized to their event average (dNJ/ψ/dy)/〈dNJ/ψ/dy〉 with (dNch/dη)/〈dNch/dη〉 is observed in both rapidity ranges, where dNch/dη is measured within |η|<1 and pt>0. In the highest multiplicity interval with 〈dNch/dη(bin)〉=24.1, corresponding to four times the minimum bias multiplicity density, an enhancement relative to the minimum bias J/ψ yield by a factor of about 5 at 2.5<y<4 (8 at |y|<0.9) is observed.
he first measurements of the invariant differential cross sections of inclusive π0 and η meson production at mid-rapidity in proton–proton collisions at s=0.9 TeV and s=7 TeV are reported. The π0 measurement covers the ranges 0.4<pT<7 GeV/c and 0.3<pT<25 GeV/c for these two energies, respectively. The production of η mesons was measured at s=√7 TeV in the range 0.4<pT<15 GeV/c. Next-to-Leading Order perturbative QCD calculations, which are consistent with the π0 spectrum at s=0.9 TeV, overestimate those of π0 and η mesons at s=√7 TeV, but agree with the measured η/π0 ratio at s=√7 TeV.
The first measurement of two-pion Bose–Einstein correlations in central Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider is presented. We observe a growing trend with energy now not only for the longitudinal and the outward but also for the sideward pion source radius. The pion homogeneity volume and the decoupling time are significantly larger than those measured at RHIC.
The inclusive transverse momentum (pT) distributions of primary charged particles are measured in the pseudo-rapidity range |η|<0.8 as a function of event centrality in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV with ALICE at the LHC. The data are presented in the pT range 0.15<pT<50 GeV/c for nine centrality intervals from 70–80% to 0–5%. The results in Pb–Pb are presented in terms of the nuclear modification factor RAA using a pp reference spectrum measured at the same collision energy. We observe that the suppression of high-pT particles strongly depends on event centrality. The yield is most suppressed in central collisions (0–5%) with RAA≈0.13 at pT=6–7 GeV/c. Above pT=7 GeV/c, there is a significant rise in the nuclear modification factor, which reaches RAA≈0.4 for pT>30 GeV/c. In peripheral collisions (70–80%), only moderate suppression (RAA=0.6–0.7) and a weak pT dependence is observed. The measured nuclear modification factors are compared to other measurements and model calculations.