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Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.
Results on the production of 4He and Image 1 nuclei in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76TeV in the rapidity range |y|<1, using the ALICE detector, are presented in this paper. The rapidity densities corresponding to 0–10% central events are found to be dN/dyHe4=(0.8±0.4(stat)±0.3(syst))×10−6 and Image 2, respectively. This is in agreement with the statistical thermal model expectation assuming the same chemical freeze-out temperature (Tchem=156MeV) as for light hadrons. The measured ratio of Image 3 is 1.4±0.8(stat)±0.5(syst).
In ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions, the event-by-event variation of the elliptic flow v2 reflects fluctuations in the shape of the initial state of the system. This allows to select events with the same centrality but different initial geometry. This selection technique, Event Shape Engineering, has been used in the analysis of charge-dependent two- and three-particle correlations in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN=2.76 TeV. The two-particle correlator 〈cos(φα−φβ)〉, calculated for different combinations of charges α and β, is almost independent of v2 (for a given centrality), while the three-particle correlator 〈cos(φα+φβ−2Ψ2)〉 scales almost linearly both with the event v2 and charged-particle pseudorapidity density. The charge dependence of the three-particle correlator is often interpreted as evidence for the Chiral Magnetic Effect (CME), a parity violating effect of the strong interaction. However, its measured dependence on v2 points to a large non-CME contribution to the correlator. Comparing the results with Monte Carlo calculations including a magnetic field due to the spectators, the upper limit of the CME signal contribution to the three-particle correlator in the 10–50% centrality interval is found to be 26–33% at 95% confidence level.
First results on the longitudinal asymmetry and its effect on the pseudorapidity distributions in Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider are obtained with the ALICE detector. The longitudinal asymmetry arises because of an unequal number of participating nucleons from the two colliding nuclei, and is estimated for each event by measuring the energy in the forward neutron-ZeroDegree-Calorimeters (ZNs). The effect of the longitudinal asymmetry is measured on the pseudorapidity distributions of charged particles in the regions |η| < 0.9, 2.8 < η < 5.1 and −3.7 < η < −1.7 by taking the ratio of the pseudorapidity distributions from events corresponding to different regions of asymmetry. The coefficients of a polynomial fit to the ratio characterise the effect of the asymmetry. A Monte Carlo simulation using a Glauber model for the colliding nuclei is tuned to reproduce the spectrum in the ZNs and provides a relation between the measurable longitudinal asymmetry and the shift in the rapidity (y0) of the participant zone formed by the unequal number of participating nucleons. The dependence of the coefficient of the linear term in the polynomial expansion, c1, on the mean value of y0 is investigated.
We present a measurement of azimuthal correlations between inclusive J/ψ and charged hadrons in p–Pb collisions recorded with the ALICE detector at the CERN LHC. The J/ψ are reconstructed at forward (p-going, 2.03<y<3.53) and backward (Pb-going, −4.46<y<−2.96) rapidity via their μ+μ− decay channel, while the charged hadrons are reconstructed at mid-rapidity (|η|<1.8). The correlations are expressed in terms of associated charged-hadron yields per J/ψ trigger. A rapidity gap of at least 1.5 units is required between the trigger J/ψ and the associated charged hadrons. Possible correlations due to collective effects are assessed by subtracting the associated per-trigger yields in the low-multiplicity collisions from those in the high-multiplicity collisions. After the subtraction, we observe a strong indication of remaining symmetric structures at Δφ≈0 and Δφ≈π, similar to those previously found in two-particle correlations at middle and forward rapidity. The corresponding second-order Fourier coefficient (v2) in the transverse momentum interval between 3 and 6 GeV/c is found to be positive with a significance of about 5σ. The obtained results are similar to the J/ψ v2 coefficients measured in Pb–Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV, suggesting a common mechanism at the origin of the J/ψ v2.
The differential charged jet cross sections, jet fragmentation distributions, and jet shapes are measured in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV using the ALICE detector at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from charged particle momenta in the mid-rapidity region using the sequential recombination kT and anti-kT as well as the SISCone jet finding algorithms with several resolution parameters in the range R=0.2 to 0.6. Differential jet production cross sections measured with the three jet finders are in agreement in the transverse momentum (pT) interval 20<pjet,chT<100 GeV/c. They are also consistent with prior measurements carried out at the LHC by the ATLAS collaboration. The jet charged particle multiplicity rises monotonically with increasing jet pT, in qualitative agreement with prior observations at lower energies. The transverse profiles of leading jets are investigated using radial momentum density distributions as well as distributions of the average radius containing 80% (⟨R80⟩) of the reconstructed jet pT. The fragmentation of leading jets with R=0.4 using scaled pT spectra of the jet constituents is studied. The measurements are compared to model calculations from event generators (PYTHIA, PHOJET, HERWIG). The measured radial density distributions and ⟨R80⟩ distributions are well described by the PYTHIA model (tune Perugia-2011). The fragmentation distributions are better described by HERWIG.
The ALICE collaboration at the LHC reports measurement of the inclusive production cross section of electrons from semi-leptonic decays of beauty hadrons with rapidity |y|<0.8 and transverse momentum 1<pT<10 GeV/c, in pp collisions at s√= 2.76 TeV. Electrons not originating from semi-electronic decay of beauty hadrons are suppressed using the impact parameter of the corresponding tracks. The production cross section of beauty decay electrons is compared to the result obtained with an alternative method which uses the distribution of the azimuthal angle between heavy-flavour decay electrons and charged hadrons. Perturbative QCD calculations agree with the measured cross section within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties. The integrated visible cross section, σb→e=3.47±0.40(stat)+1.12−1.33(sys)±0.07(norm)μb, was extrapolated to full phase space using Fixed Order plus Next-to-Leading Log (FONLL) predictions to obtain the total bb¯ production cross section, σbb¯=130±15.1(stat)+42.1−49.8(sys)+3.4−3.1(extr)±2.5(norm)±4.4(BR)μb.
The ALICE collaboration at the LHC reports measurement of the inclusive production cross section of electrons from semi-leptonic decays of beauty hadrons with rapidity |y|<0.8 and transverse momentum 1<pT<10 GeV/c, in pp collisions at s√= 2.76 TeV. Electrons not originating from semi-electronic decay of beauty hadrons are suppressed using the impact parameter of the corresponding tracks. The production cross section of beauty decay electrons is compared to the result obtained with an alternative method which uses the distribution of the azimuthal angle between heavy-flavour decay electrons and charged hadrons. Perturbative QCD calculations agree with the measured cross section within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties. The integrated visible cross section, σb→e=3.47±0.40(stat)+1.12−1.33(sys)±0.07(norm)μb, was extrapolated to full phase space using Fixed Order plus Next-to-Leading Log (FONLL) predictions to obtain the total bb¯ production cross section, σbb¯=130±15.1(stat)+42.1−49.8(sys)+3.4−3.1(extr)±2.5(norm)±4.4(BR)μb.
Transverse momentum spectra of π±, K± and p(p¯) up to pT = 20 GeV/c at mid-rapidity in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√= 2.76 TeV have been measured using the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The proton-to-pion and the kaon-to-pion ratios both show a distinct peak at pT≈3GeV/c in central Pb-Pb collisions. Below the peak, pT < 3 GeV/c, both ratios are in good agreement with hydrodynamical calculations, suggesting that the peak itself is dominantly the result of radial flow rather than anomalous hadronization processes. For pT > 10 GeV/c particle ratios in pp and Pb-Pb collisions are in agreement and the nuclear modification factors for π±, K± and p(p¯) indicate that, within the systematic and statistical uncertainties, the suppression is the same. This suggests that the chemical composition of leading particles from jets in the medium is similar to that of vacuum jets.
The pT-differential production cross section of electrons from semileptonic decays of heavy-flavor hadrons has been measured at mid-rapidity in proton-proton collisions at s√=2.76 TeV in the transverse momentum range 0.5 < pT < 12 GeV/c with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The analysis was performed using minimum bias events and events triggered by the electromagnetic calorimeter. Predictions from perturbative QCD calculations agree with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties.
The differential charged jet cross sections, jet fragmentation distributions, and jet shapes are measured in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV using the ALICE detector at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from charged particle momenta in the mid-rapidity region using the sequential recombination kT and anti-kT as well as the SISCone jet finding algorithms with several resolution parameters in the range R=0.2 to 0.6. Differential jet production cross sections measured with the three jet finders are in agreement in the transverse momentum (pT) interval 20<pjet,chT<100 GeV/c. They are also consistent with prior measurements carried out at the LHC by the ATLAS collaboration. The jet charged particle multiplicity rises monotonically with increasing jet pT, in qualitative agreement with prior observations at lower energies. The transverse profiles of leading jets are investigated using radial momentum density distributions as well as distributions of the average radius containing 80% (⟨R80⟩) of the reconstructed jet pT. The fragmentation of leading jets with R=0.4 using scaled pT spectra of the jet constituents is studied. The measurements are compared to model calculations from event generators (PYTHIA, PHOJET, HERWIG). The measured radial density distributions and ⟨R80⟩ distributions are well described by the PYTHIA model (tune Perugia-2011). The fragmentation distributions are better described by HERWIG.
Event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum of charged particles produced in pp collisions at s√ = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV, and Pb-Pb collisions at sNN−−−−√ = 2.76 TeV are studied as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity using the ALICE detector at the LHC. Dynamical fluctuations indicative of correlated particle emission are observed in all systems. The results in pp collisions show little dependence on collision energy. The Monte Carlo event generators PYTHIA and PHOJET are in qualitative agreement with the data. Peripheral Pb-Pb data exhibit a similar multiplicity dependence as that observed in pp. In central Pb-Pb, the results deviate from this trend, featuring a significant reduction of the fluctuation strength. The results in Pb--Pb are in qualitative agreement with previous measurements in Au-Au at lower collision energies and with expectations from models that incorporate collective phenomena.
We report on the production of inclusive Υ(1S) and Υ(2S) in p-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV at the LHC. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector at backward (−4.46<ycms<−2.96) and forward (2.03<ycms<3.53) rapidity down to zero transverse momentum. The production cross sections of the Υ(1S) and Υ(2S) are presented, as well as the nuclear modification factor and the ratio of the forward to backward yields of Υ(1S). A suppression of the inclusive Υ(1S) yield in p-Pb collisions with respect to the yield from pp collisions scaled by the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions is observed at forward rapidity but not at backward rapidity. The results are compared to theoretical model calculations including nuclear shadowing or partonic energy loss effects.
We report on the production of inclusive Υ(1S) and Υ(2S) in p-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=5.02 TeV at the LHC. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector at backward (−4.46<ycms<−2.96) and forward (2.03<ycms<3.53) rapidity down to zero transverse momentum. The production cross sections of the Υ(1S) and Υ(2S) are presented, as well as the nuclear modification factor and the ratio of the forward to backward yields of Υ(1S). A suppression of the inclusive Υ(1S) yield in p-Pb collisions with respect to the yield from pp collisions scaled by the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions is observed at forward rapidity but not at backward rapidity. The results are compared to theoretical model calculations including nuclear shadowing or partonic energy loss effects.
The pT-differential production cross section of electrons from semileptonic decays of heavy-flavor hadrons has been measured at mid-rapidity in proton-proton collisions at s√=2.76 TeV in the transverse momentum range 0.5 < pT < 12 GeV/c with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The analysis was performed using minimum bias events and events triggered by the electromagnetic calorimeter. Predictions from perturbative QCD calculations agree with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties.
The differential charged jet cross sections, jet fragmentation distributions, and jet shapes are measured in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV using the ALICE detector at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from charged particle momenta in the mid-rapidity region using the sequential recombination kT and anti-kT as well as the SISCone jet finding algorithms with several resolution parameters in the range R=0.2 to 0.6. Differential jet production cross sections measured with the three jet finders are in agreement in the transverse momentum (pT) interval 20<pjet,chT<100 GeV/c. They are also consistent with prior measurements carried out at the LHC by the ATLAS collaboration. The jet charged particle multiplicity rises monotonically with increasing jet pT, in qualitative agreement with prior observations at lower energies. The transverse profiles of leading jets are investigated using radial momentum density distributions as well as distributions of the average radius containing 80% (⟨R80⟩) of the reconstructed jet pT. The fragmentation of leading jets with R=0.4 using scaled pT spectra of the jet constituents is studied. The measurements are compared to model calculations from event generators (PYTHIA, PHOJET, HERWIG). The measured radial density distributions and ⟨R80⟩ distributions are well described by the PYTHIA model (tune Perugia-2011). The fragmentation distributions are better described by HERWIG.
Background: Berotralstat (BCX7353) is an oral, once-daily inhibitor of plasma kallikrein in development for the prophylaxis of hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks.
Objective: Our aim was to determine the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of berotralstat in patients with HAE over a 24-week treatment period (the phase 3 APeX-2 trial).
Methods: APeX-2 was a double-blind, parallel-group study that randomized patients at 40 sites in 11 countries 1:1:1 to receive once-daily berotralstat in a dose of 110 mg or 150 mg or placebo (Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT03485911). Patients aged 12 years or older with HAE due to C1 inhibitor deficiency and at least 2 investigator-confirmed HAE attacks in the first 56 days of a prospective run-in period were eligible. The primary efficacy end point was the rate of investigator-confirmed HAE attacks during the 24-week treatment period.
Results: A total of 121 patients were randomized; 120 of them received at least 1 dose of the study drug (n = 41, 40, and 39 in the 110-mg dose of berotralstat, 150-mg of dose berotralstat, and placebo groups, respectively). Berotralstat demonstrated a significant reduction in attack rate at both 110 mg (1.65 attacks per month; P = .024) and 150 mg (1.31 attacks per month; P < .001) relative to placebo (2.35 attacks per month). The most frequent treatment-emergent adverse events that occurred more with berotralstat than with placebo were abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, and back pain. No drug-related serious treatment-emergent adverse events occurred.
Conclusion: Both the 110-mg and 150-mg doses of berotralstat reduced HAE attack rates compared with placebo and were safe and generally well tolerated. The most favorable benefit-to-risk profile was observed at a dose of 150 mg per day.
In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire‐induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems.
The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over 2 decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. We have also created supplementary tables that describe, in thorough mathematical detail, the structure of each model.
The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols
(2016)
The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over two decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. Here we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. The works published in this journal are distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. This license does not affect the Crown copy-right work, which is re-usable under the Open Government Licence (OGL). The Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License and the OGL are interoperable and do not conflict with, reduce, or limit each other.