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Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change
(2016)
Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.
Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
The degradation of natural forests to modified forests threatens subtropical and tropical biodiversity worldwide. Yet, species responses to forest modification vary considerably. Furthermore, effects of forest modification can differ, whether with respect to diversity components (taxonomic or phylogenetic) or to local (α-diversity) and regional (β-diversity) spatial scales. This real-world complexity has so far hampered our understanding of subtropical and tropical biodiversity patterns in human-modified forest landscapes. In a subtropical South African forest landscape, we studied the responses of three successive plant life stages (adult trees, saplings, seedlings) and of birds to five different types of forest modification distinguished by the degree of within-forest disturbance and forest loss. Responses of the two taxa differed markedly. Thus, the taxonomic α-diversity of birds was negatively correlated with the diversity of all plant life stages and, contrary to plant diversity, increased with forest disturbance. Conversely, forest disturbance reduced the phylogenetic α-diversity of all plant life stages but not that of birds. Forest loss neither affected taxonomic nor phylogenetic diversity of any taxon. On the regional scale, taxonomic but not phylogenetic β-diversity of both taxa was well predicted by variation in forest disturbance and forest loss. In contrast to adult trees, the phylogenetic diversity of saplings and seedlings showed signs of contemporary environmental filtering. In conclusion, forest modification in this subtropical landscape strongly shaped both local and regional biodiversity but with contrasting outcomes. Phylogenetic diversity of plants may be more threatened than that of mobile species such as birds. The reduced phylogenetic diversity of saplings and seedlings suggests losses in biodiversity that are not visible in adult trees, potentially indicating time-lags and contemporary shifts in forest regeneration. The different responses of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity to forest modifications imply that biodiversity conservation in this subtropical landscape requires the preservation of natural and modified forests.
he most basic behavioural states of animals can be described as active or passive. While high-resolution observations of activity patterns can provide insights into the ecology of animal species, few methods are able to measure the activity of individuals of small taxa in their natural environment. We present a novel approach in which a combination of automatic radiotracking and machine learning is used to distinguish between active and passive behaviour in small vertebrates fitted with lightweight transmitters (<0.4 g).
We used a dataset containing >3 million signals from very-high-frequency (VHF) telemetry from two forest-dwelling bat species (Myotis bechsteinii [n = 52] and Nyctalus leisleri [n = 20]) to train and test a random forest model in assigning either active or passive behaviour to VHF-tagged individuals. The generalisability of the model was demonstrated by recording and classifying the behaviour of tagged birds and by simulating the effect of different activity levels with the help of humans carrying transmitters. The model successfully classified the activity states of bats as well as those of birds and humans, although the latter were not included in model training (F1 0.96–0.98).
We provide an ecological case-study demonstrating the potential of this automated monitoring tool. We used the trained models to compare differences in the daily activity patterns of two bat species. The analysis showed a pronounced bimodal activity distribution of N. leisleri over the course of the night while the night-time activity of M. bechsteinii was relatively constant. These results show that subtle differences in the timing of species' activity can be distinguished using our method.
Our approach can classify VHF-signal patterns into fundamental behavioural states with high precision and is applicable to different terrestrial and flying vertebrates. To encourage the broader use of our radiotracking method, we provide the trained random forest models together with an R package that includes all necessary data processing functionalities. In combination with state-of-the-art open-source automated radiotracking, this toolset can be used by the scientific community to investigate the activity patterns of small vertebrates with high temporal resolution, even in dense vegetation.
Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world’s tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world’s tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests.
Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes show that the functionality of tropical forests can be maintained in moderately disturbed forest fragments. Conservation concepts for tropical forests should thus include not only remaining pristine forests but also functionally viable forest remnants.
The most basic behavioural states of animals can be described as active or passive. However, while high-resolution observations of activity patterns can provide insights into the ecology of animal species, few methods are able to measure the activity of individuals of small taxa in their natural environment. We present a novel approach in which the automated VHF radio-tracking of small vertebrates fitted with lightweight transmitters (< 0.2 g) is used to distinguish between active and passive behavioural states.
A dataset containing > 3 million VHF signals was used to train and test a random forest model in the assignment of either active or passive behaviour to individuals from two forest-dwelling bat species (Myotis bechsteinii (n = 50) and Nyctalus leisleri (n = 20)). The applicability of the model to other taxonomic groups was demonstrated by recording and classifying the behaviour of a tagged bird and by simulating the effect of different types of vertebrate activity with the help of humans carrying transmitters. The random forest model successfully classified the activity states of bats as well as those of birds and humans, although the latter were not included in model training (F-score 0.96–0.98).
The utility of the model in tackling ecologically relevant questions was demonstrated in a study of the differences in the daily activity patterns of the two bat species. The analysis showed a pronounced bimodal activity distribution of N. leisleri over the course of the night while the night-time activity of M. bechsteinii was relatively constant. These results show that significant differences in the timing of species activity according to ecological preferences or seasonality can be distinguished using our method.
Our approach enables the assignment of VHF signal patterns to fundamental behavioural states with high precision and is applicable to different terrestrial and flying vertebrates. To encourage the broader use of our radio-tracking method, we provide the trained random forest models together with an R-package that includes all necessary data-processing functionalities. In combination with state-of-the-art open-source automated radio-tracking, this toolset can be used by the scientific community to investigate the activity patterns of small vertebrates with high temporal resolution, even in dense vegetation.