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LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the beginnings of inspirals that will venture into the ground-based detectors' view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA's discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This white paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome.
Climatic seasonality drives ecosystem processes (e.g. productivity) and influences plant species distribution. However, it is poorly understood how different aspects of seasonality (especially regarding temperature and precipitation) affect growth continuity of trees in climates with low seasonality because seasonality is often only crudely measured. On islands, exceptionally wide elevational species distribution ranges allow the use of tree rings to identify how growth continuity and climate–growth relationships change with elevation. Here, we present a novel dendroecological method to measure stem growth continuity based on annual density fluctuations (ADFs) in tree rings of Pinus canariensis to indicate low climatic seasonality. The species ranges from 300 to >2000 m a.s.l. on the trade wind-influenced island of La Palma (Canary Islands), where we measured three decades of tree-ring data of 100 individuals distributed over 10 sites along the entire elevational range. The successfully implemented ADF approach revealed a major shift of stem growth continuity across the elevational gradient. In a remarkably clear pattern, stem growth continuity (percentage of ADFs) showed a hump-shaped relationship with elevation reaching a maximum at around 1000 m a.s.l. Low- to mid-elevation tree growth was positively correlated with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; indicating aridity) and sea surface temperature (indicating trade wind-influenced moderation of water supply), while high-elevation tree growth was positively correlated with winter temperature (indicating a cold-induced dormancy period). We conclude that ADFs are a useful method to measure stem growth continuity in low-seasonality climates. Growth of P. canariensis on the Canary Islands is more frequently interrupted by winter cold at high elevations and by summer drought at low elevations than in the trade wind-influenced mid elevations, where growth sometimes continues throughout the year. Climate change-associated alterations in trade wind cloud formation might cause non-analogue growth limitations for many unique island species.
Positive plant–plant interactions are thought to drive vegetation patterns in harsh environments, such as semi-arid areas. According to the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), the role of positive interactions between species (facilitation) is expected to increase with harshness, predicting associated variation in species composition along environmental gradients. However, the relation between stress and facilitation along environmental gradients is debated. Furthermore, differentiating facilitative interactions from other underlying mechanisms, such as microtopographic heterogeneity, is not trivial. We analysed the spatial co-occurrence relationships of vascular plant species that form patchy vegetation in arid lapilli fields (tephra) from recent volcanic eruptions on La Palma, Canary Islands. Assuming a harshness gradient negatively correlated with elevation because the lower elevations are more arid and water availability is considered the most limiting resource, and that an outcome of facilitation is plants co-occurring in the same patch, from the SGH we expected a greater degree of co-occurrence at lower elevation. We tested this at both the species and the individual plant level. We analysed the species composition of 1277 shrubby vegetation patches at 64 different sampling points, ranging from the coast to around 700 m a.s.l. Patch morphology and microtopographic heterogeneity variables were also measured, to account for their potential effects on the species composition of patches. We used generalized linear models and generalized mixed-effects models to analyse species richness, number of individuals in patches and percentage of patches with positive co-occurrences, and a pairwise co-occurrence analysis combined with a graphical network analysis to reveal positive links between 13 of the species. We found that the percentage of patches with positive co-occurrences increased at higher elevations, in contrast to the predictions of the SGH, but in accordance with a refined stress-gradient hypothesis for arid sites, in which characteristics of the interacting species are incorporated.
Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world’s tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world’s tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests.
Climatic and biogeographical drivers of functional diversity in the flora of the Canary Islands
(2022)
Aim: Functional traits can help us to elucidate biogeographical and ecological processes driving assemblage structure. We analysed the functional diversity of plant species of different evolutionary origins across an island archipelago, along environmental gradients and across geological age, to assess functional aspects of island biogeographical theory.
Location: Canary Islands, Spain.
Major taxa studied: Spermatophytes.
Time period: Present day.
Methods: We collected data for four traits (plant height, leaf length, flower length and fruit length) associated with resource acquisition, competitive ability, reproduction and dispersal ability of 893 endemic, non-endemic native and alien plant species (c. 43% of the Canary Island flora) from the literature. Linking these traits to species occurrences and composition across a 500 m × 500 m grid, we calculated functional diversity for endemic, non-endemic native and alien assemblages using multidimensional functional hypervolumes and related the resulting patterns to climatic (humidity) and island biogeographical (geographical isolation, topographic complexity and geological age) gradients.
Results: Trait space of endemic and non-endemic native species overlapped considerably, and alien species added novel trait combinations, expanding the overall functional space of the Canary Islands. We found that functional diversity of endemic plant assemblages was highest in geographically isolated and humid grid cells. Functional diversity of non-endemic native assemblages was highest in less isolated and humid grid cells. In contrast, functional diversity of alien assemblages was highest in arid ecosystems. Topographic complexity and geological age had only a subordinate effect on functional diversity across floristic groups.
Main conclusions: We found that endemic and non-endemic native island species possess similar traits, whereas alien species tend to expand functional space in ecosystems where they have been introduced. The spatial distribution of the functional diversity of floristic groups is very distinct across environmental gradients, indicating that species assemblages of different evolutionary origins thrive functionally in dissimilar habitats.
Questions: Both species turnover and intraspecific trait variation can affect plant assemblage dynamics along environmental gradients. Here, we asked how community assemblage patterns in relation to species turnover and intraspecific variation differ between endemic and non-endemic species. We hypothesized that endemic species show lower intraspecific variation than non-endemic species because they tend to have high rates of in situ speciation, whereas non-endemic species are expected to have a larger gene pool and higher phenotypic plasticity.
Location: La Palma, Canary Islands.
Methods: We established 44 sampling sites along a directional gradient of precipitation, heat load, soil nitrogen, phosphorus and pH. Along this gradient, we estimated species abundances and measured three traits (plant height, leaf area and leaf thickness) on perennial endemic and non-endemic plant species. In total, we recorded traits for 1,223 plant individuals of 43 species. Subsequently, we calculated community-weighted mean traits to measure the relative contribution of species turnover, intraspecific variation and their covariation along the analysed gradient.
Results: The contribution of intraspecific variation to total variation was similar in endemic and non-endemic assemblages. For plant height, intraspecific variation explained roughly as much variation as species turnover. For leaf area and leaf thickness, intraspecific variation explained almost no variation. Species turnover effects mainly drove trait responses along the environmental gradient, but intraspecific variation was important for responses in leaf area to precipitation.
Conclusions: Despite their distinct evolutionary history, endemic and non-endemic plant assemblages show similar patterns in species turnover and intraspecific variation. Our results indicate that species turnover is the main component of trait variation in the underlying study system. However, intraspecific variation can increase individual species’ fitness in response to precipitation. Overall, our study challenges the theory that intraspecific trait variation is more important for the establishment of non-endemic species compared with endemic species.