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Institute
Non-standard errors
(2021)
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in sample estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: non-standard errors. To study them, we let 164 teams test six hypotheses on the same sample. We find that non-standard errors are sizeable, on par with standard errors. Their size (i) co-varies only weakly with team merits, reproducibility, or peer rating, (ii) declines significantly after peer-feedback, and (iii) is underestimated by participants.
The first study of ϕ-meson production in p–Pb collisions at forward and backward rapidity, at a nucleon–nucleon centre-of-mass energy √sNN=5.02 TeV, has been performed with the ALICE apparatus at the LHC. The ϕ-mesons have been identified in the dimuon decay channel in the transverse momentum (pT) range 1<pT<7 GeV/c, both in the p-going (2.03<y<3.53) and the Pb-going (−4.46<y<−2.96) directions — where y stands for the rapidity in the nucleon–nucleon centre-of-mass — the integrated luminosity amounting to 5.01±0.19 nb−1 and 5.81±0.20 nb−1, respectively, for the two data samples. Differential cross sections as a function of transverse momentum and rapidity are presented. The forward–backward ratio for ϕ-meson production is measured for 2.96<|y|<3.53, resulting in a ratio ∼0.5 with no significant pT dependence within the uncertainties. The pT dependence of the ϕ nuclear modification factor RpPb exhibits an enhancement up to a factor 1.6 at pT=3–4 GeV/c in the Pb-going direction. The pT dependence of the ϕ-meson cross section in pp collisions at √s=2.76 TeV, which is used to determine a reference for the p–Pb results, is also presented here for 1<pT<5 GeV/c and 2.5<y<4, for a 78±3 nb−1 integrated luminosity sample.
The production of the hypertriton nuclei HΛ3 and H‾Λ¯3 has been measured for the first time in Pb–Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV with the ALICE experiment at LHC. The pT-integrated HΛ3 yield in one unity of rapidity, dN/dy×B.R.(HΛ3→He3,π−)=(3.86±0.77(stat.)±0.68(syst.))×10−5 in the 0–10% most central collisions, is consistent with the predictions from a statistical thermal model using the same temperature as for the light hadrons. The coalescence parameter B3 shows a dependence on the transverse momentum, similar to the B2 of deuterons and the B3 of 3He nuclei. The ratio of yields S3=HΛ3/(He3×Λ/p) was measured to be S3=0.60±0.13(stat.)±0.21(syst.) in 0–10% centrality events; this value is compared to different theoretical models. The measured S3 is compatible with thermal model predictions. The measured HΛ3 lifetime, τ=181−39+54(stat.)±33(syst.)ps is in agreement within 1σ with the world average value.
Mid-rapidity transverse mass spectra and multiplicity densities of charged and neutral kaons are reported for Au + Au collisions at √sNN = 130 GeV at RHIC. The spectra are exponential in transverse mass, with an inverse slope of about 280 MeV in central collisions. The multiplicity densities for these particles scale with the negative hadron pseudo-rapidity density. The charged kaon to pion ratios are K+/π− = 0.161± 0.002(stat) ± 0.024(syst) and K−/π− = 0.146± 0.002(stat) ± 0.022(syst) for the most central collisions. The K+/π− ratio is lower than the same ratio observed at the SPS while the K−/π− is higher than the SPS result. The ratios are enhanced by about 50% relative to p + p and p¯ + p collision data at similar energies.
DNA methylation profiles of aggressive behavior may capture lifetime cumulative effects of genetic, stochastic, and environmental influences associated with aggression. Here, we report the first large meta-analysis of epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of aggressive behavior (N = 15,324 participants). In peripheral blood samples of 14,434 participants from 18 cohorts with mean ages ranging from 7 to 68 years, 13 methylation sites were significantly associated with aggression (alpha = 1.2 × 10−7; Bonferroni correction). In cord blood samples of 2425 children from five cohorts with aggression assessed at mean ages ranging from 4 to 7 years, 83% of these sites showed the same direction of association with childhood aggression (r = 0.74, p = 0.006) but no epigenome-wide significant sites were found. Top-sites (48 at a false discovery rate of 5% in the peripheral blood meta-analysis or in a combined meta-analysis of peripheral blood and cord blood) have been associated with chemical exposures, smoking, cognition, metabolic traits, and genetic variation (mQTLs). Three genes whose expression levels were associated with top-sites were previously linked to schizophrenia and general risk tolerance. At six CpGs, DNA methylation variation in blood mirrors variation in the brain. On average 44% (range = 3–82%) of the aggression–methylation association was explained by current and former smoking and BMI. These findings point at loci that are sensitive to chemical exposures with potential implications for neuronal functions. We hope these results to be a starting point for studies leading to applications as peripheral biomarkers and to reveal causal relationships with aggression and related traits.
In this paper, we estimate the demand for homeowner insurance in Florida. Since we are interested in a number of factors influencing demand, we approach the problem from two directions. We first estimate two hedonic equations representing the premium per contract and the price mark-up. We analyze how the contracts are bundled and how contract provisions, insurer characteristics and insured risk characteristics and demographics influence the premium per contract and the price mark-up. Second, we estimate the demand for homeowners insurance using two-stage least squares regression. We employ ISO's indicated loss costs as our proxy for real insurance services demanded. We assume that the demand for coverage is essentially a joint demand and thus we can estimate the demand for catastrophe coverage separately from the demand for noncatastrophe coverage. We determine that price elasticities are less elastic for catastrophic coverage than for non-catastrophic coverage. Further estimated income elasticities suggest that homeowners insurance is an inferior good. Finally, we conclude based on the results of a selection model that our sample of ISO reporting companies well represents the demand for insurance in the Florida market as a whole.