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We report on HCFC-22 data acquired by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) in the reduced spectral resolution nominal observation mode. The data cover the period from January 2005 to April 2012 and the altitude range from the upper troposphere (above cloud top altitude) to about 50 km. The profile retrieval was performed by constrained nonlinear least squares fitting of modelled spectra to the measured limb spectral radiances. The spectral ν4-band at 816.5 ± 13 cm−1 was used for the retrieval. A Tikhonov-type smoothing constraint was applied to stabilise the retrieval. In the lower stratosphere, we find a global volume mixing ratio of HCFC-22 of about 185 pptv in January 2005. The rate of linear growth in the lower latitudes lower stratosphere was about 6 to 7 pptv year−1 in the period 2005–2012. The profiles obtained were compared with ACE-FTS satellite data v3.5, as well as with MkIV balloon profiles and cryosampler balloon measurements. Between 13 and 22 km, average agreement within −3 to +5 pptv (MIPAS – ACE) with ACE-FTS v3.5 profiles is demonstrated. Agreement with MkIV solar occultation balloon-borne measurements is within 10–20 pptv below 30 km and worse above, while in situ cryosampler balloon measurements are systematically lower over their full altitude range by 15–50 pptv below 24 km and less than 10 pptv above 28 km. MIPAS HCFC-22 time series below 10 km altitude are shown to agree mostly well to corresponding time series of near-surface abundances from the NOAA/ESRL and AGAGE networks, although a more pronounced seasonal cycle is obvious in the satellite data. This is attributed to tropopause altitude fluctuations and subsidence of polar winter stratospheric air into the troposphere. A parametric model consisting of constant, linear, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several sine and cosine terms with different periods has been fitted to the temporal variation of stratospheric HCFC-22 for all 10°-latitude/1-to-2-km-altitude bins. The relative linear variation was always positive, with relative increases of 40–70 % decade−1 in the tropics and global lower stratosphere, and up to 120 % decade−1 in the upper stratosphere of the northern polar region and the southern extratropical hemisphere. Asian HCFC-22 emissions have become the major source of global upper tropospheric HCFC-22. In the upper troposphere, monsoon air, rich in HCFC-22, is instantaneously mixed into the tropics. In the middle stratosphere, between 20 and 30 km, the observed trend is inconsistent with the trend at the surface (corrected for the age of stratospheric air), hinting at circulation changes. There exists a stronger positive trend in HCFC-22 in the Southern Hemisphere and a more muted positive trend in the Northern Hemisphere, implying a potential change in the stratospheric circulation over the observation period.
We report on HCFC-22 data acquired by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) in reduced spectral resolution nominal mode in the period from January 2005 to April 2012 from version 5.02 level-1b spectral data and covering an altitude range from the upper troposphere (above cloud top altitude) to about 50 km. The profile retrieval was performed by constrained nonlinear least squares fitting of measured limb spectral radiances to modelled spectra. The spectral v4-band at 816.5 ± 13 cm-1 was used for the retrieval. A Tikhonov-type smoothing constraint was applied to stabilise the retrieval. In the lower stratosphere, we find a global volume mixing ratio of HCFC-22 of about 185 pptv in January 2005. The linear growth rate in the lower latitudes lower stratosphere was about 6 to 7 pptv yr-1 in the period 2005–2012. The obtained profiles were compared with ACE-FTS satellite data v3.5, as well as with MkIV balloon profiles and in situ cryosampler balloon measurements. Between 13 and 22 km, average agreement within -3 to +5 pptv (MIPAS–ACE) with ACE-FTS v3.5 pro files is demonstrated. Agreement with MkIV solar occultation balloon-borne measurements is within 10–20 pptv below 30 km and worse above, while in situ cryosampler balloon measurements are systematically lower over their full altitude range by 15– 50 pptv below 24 km and less than 10 pptv above 28 km. Obtained MIPAS HCFC-22 time series below 10 km altitude are shown to agree mostly well to corresponding time series of near-surface abundances from NOAA/ESRL and AGAGE networks, although a more pronounced seasonal cycle is obvious in the satellite data, probably due to tropopause altitude fluctuations and subsidence of polar winter stratospheric air into the troposphere. A parametric model consisting of constant, linear, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and several sine and cosine terms with different periods has been fitted to the temporal variation of stratospheric HCFC-22 for all 10° latitude/1 to 2 km altitude bins. The relative linear variation was always positive, with relative increases of 40–70%decade-1 in the tropics and global lower stratosphere, and up to 120%decade-1 in the upper stratosphere of the northern polar region and the southern extratropical hemisphere. In the middle stratosphere between 20 and 30 km, the observed trend is not consistent with the age of stratospheric air-corrected trend at ground, but stronger positive at the Southern Hemisphere and less strong increasing in the Northern Hemisphere, hinting towards changes in the stratospheric circulation over the observation period.
Background: Antidepressant medication is commonly used to treat depression. However, many patients do not respond to the first medication prescribed and improvements in symptoms are generally only detectable by clinicians 4–6 weeks after the medication has been initiated. As a result, there is often a long delay between the decision to initiate an antidepressant medication and the identification of an effective treatment regimen.
Previous work has demonstrated that antidepressant medications alter subtle measures of affective cognition in depressed patients, such as the appraisal of facial expression. Furthermore, these cognitive effects of antidepressants are apparent early in the course of treatment and can also predict later clinical response. This trial will assess whether an electronic test of affective cognition and symptoms (the Predicting Response to Depression Treatment Test; PReDicT Test) can be used to guide antidepressant treatment in depressed patients and, therefore, hasten treatment response compared to a control group of patients treated as usual.
Methods/design: The study is a randomised, two-arm, multi-centre, open-label, clinical investigation of a medical device, the PReDicT Test. It will be conducted in five European countries (UK, France, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands) in depressed patients who are commencing antidepressant medication. Patients will be randomised to treatment guided by the PReDicT Test (PReDicT arm) or to Treatment as Usual (TaU arm). Patients in the TaU arm will be treated as per current standard guidelines in their particular country. Patients in the PReDicT arm will complete the PReDicT Test after 1 (and if necessary, 2) weeks of treatment. If the test indicates non-response to the treatment, physicians will be advised to immediately alter the patient’s antidepressant therapy by dose escalation or switching to another compound. The primary outcome of the study is the proportion of patients showing a clinical response (defined as 50% or greater decrease in baseline scores of depression measured using the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptoms – Self-Rated questionnaire) at week 8. Health economic and acceptability data will also be collected and analysed.
Discussion: This trial will test the clinical efficacy, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of using the novel PReDicT Test to guide antidepressant treatment selection in depressed patients.
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT02790970. Registered on 30 March 2016.
Background: Identification of families at risk for ovarian cancer offers the opportunity to consider prophylactic surgery thus reducing ovarian cancer mortality. So far, identification of potentially affected families in Germany was solely performed via family history and numbers of affected family members with breast or ovarian cancer. However, neither the prevalence of deleterious variants in BRCA1/2 in ovarian cancer in Germany nor the reliability of family history as trigger for genetic counselling has ever been evaluated.
Methods: Prospective counseling and germline testing of consecutive patients with primary diagnosis or with platinum-sensitive relapse of an invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Testing included 25 candidate and established risk genes. Among these 25 genes, 16 genes (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CDH1, CHEK2, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, NBN, PMS2, PTEN, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, STK11, TP53) were defined as established cancer risk genes. A positive family history was defined as at least one relative with breast cancer or ovarian cancer or breast cancer in personal history.
Results: In total, we analyzed 523 patients: 281 patients with primary diagnosis of ovarian cancer and 242 patients with relapsed disease. Median age at primary diagnosis was 58 years (range 16–93) and 406 patients (77.6%) had a high-grade serous ovarian cancer. In total, 27.9% of the patients showed at least one deleterious variant in all 25 investigated genes and 26.4% in the defined 16 risk genes. Deleterious variants were most prevalent in the BRCA1 (15.5%), BRCA2 (5.5%), RAD51C (2.5%) and PALB2 (1.1%) genes. The prevalence of deleterious variants did not differ significantly between patients at primary diagnosis and relapse. The prevalence of deleterious variants in BRCA1/2 (and in all 16 risk genes) in patients <60 years was 30.2% (33.2%) versus 10.6% (18.9%) in patients ≥60 years. Family history was positive in 43% of all patients. Patients with a positive family history had a prevalence of deleterious variants of 31.6% (36.0%) versus 11.4% (17.6%) and histologic subtype of high grade serous ovarian cancer versus other showed a prevalence of deleterious variants of 23.2% (29.1%) and 10.2% (14.8%), respectively. Testing only for BRCA1/2 would miss in our series more than 5% of the patients with a deleterious variant in established risk genes.
Conclusions: 26.4% of all patients harbor at least one deleterious variant in established risk genes. The threshold of 10% mutation rate which is accepted for reimbursement by health care providers in Germany was observed in all subgroups analyzed and neither age at primary diagnosis nor histo-type or family history sufficiently enough could identify a subgroup not eligible for genetic counselling and testing. Genetic testing should therefore be offered to every patient with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and limiting testing to BRCA1/2 seems to be not sufficient.
The evolution of the traditional nuclear magic numbers away from the valley of stability is an active field of research. Experimental efforts focus on providing key spectroscopic information that will shed light into the structure of exotic nuclei and understanding the driving mechanism behind the shell evolution. In this work, we investigate the spin-orbit shell gap towards the neutron dripline. To do so, we employed (p,2p) quasi-free scattering reactions to measure the proton component of the state of 16,18,20C. The experimental findings support the notion of a moderate reduction of the proton spin-orbit splitting, at variance to recent claims for a prevalent magic number towards the neutron dripline.
The balance function is a new observable based on the principle that charge is locally conserved when particles are pair produced. Balance functions have been measured for charged particle pairs and identified charged pion pairs in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider using STAR. Balance functions for peripheral collisions have widths consistent with model predictions based on a superposition of nucleon-nucleon scattering. Widths in central collisions are smaller, consistent with trends predicted by models incorporating late hadronization.
Azimuthal anisotropy (v2) and two-particle angular correlations of high pT charged hadrons have been measured in Au+Au collisions at sqrt[sNN]=130 GeV for transverse momenta up to 6 GeV/c, where hard processes are expected to contribute significantly. The two-particle angular correlations exhibit elliptic flow and a structure suggestive of fragmentation of high pT partons. The monotonic rise of v2(pT) for pT<2 GeV/c is consistent with collective hydrodynamical flow calculations. At pT>3 GeV/c, a saturation of v2 is observed which persists up to pT=6 GeV/c.
Bloodstream infections (BSI) are a severe complication of antineoplastic chemotherapy or hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), especially in the presence of antibiotic resistance (AR). A multinational, multicenter retrospective study in patients aged ≤ 18 years, treated with chemotherapy or HSCT from 2015 to 2017 was implemented to analyze AR among non-common skin commensals BSI. Risk factors associated with AR, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality were analyzed by multilevel mixed effects or standard logistic regressions. A total of 1291 BSIs with 1379 strains were reported in 1031 patients. Among Gram-negatives more than 20% were resistant to ceftazidime, cefepime, piperacillin-tazobactam and ciprofloxacin while 9% was resistant to meropenem. Methicillin-resistance was observed in 17% of S. aureus and vancomycin resistance in 40% of E. faecium. Previous exposure to antibiotics, especially to carbapenems, was significantly associated with resistant Gram-negative BSI while previous colonization with methicillin-resistant S. aureus was associated with BSI due to this pathogen. Hematological malignancies, neutropenia and Gram-negatives resistant to >3 antibiotics were significantly associated with higher risk of ICU admission. Underlying disease in relapse/progression, previous exposure to antibiotics, and need of ICU admission were significantly associated with mortality. Center-level variation showed a greater impact on AR, while patient-level variation had more effect on ICU admission and mortality. Previous exposure to antibiotics or colonization by resistant pathogens can be the cause of AR BSI. Resistant Gram-negatives are significantly associated with ICU admission and mortality, with a significant role for the treating center too. The significant evidence of center-level variations on AR, ICU admission and mortality, stress the need for careful local antibiotic stewardship and infection control programs.
As new generations of targeted therapies emerge and tumor genome sequencing discovers increasingly comprehensive mutation repertoires, the functional relationships of mutations to tumor phenotypes remain largely unknown. Here, we measured ex vivo sensitivity of 246 blood cancers to 63 drugs alongside genome, transcriptome, and DNA methylome analysis to understand determinants of drug response. We assembled a primary blood cancer cell encyclopedia data set that revealed disease-specific sensitivities for each cancer. Within chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), responses to 62% of drugs were associated with 2 or more mutations, and linked the B cell receptor (BCR) pathway to trisomy 12, an important driver of CLL. Based on drug responses, the disease could be organized into phenotypic subgroups characterized by exploitable dependencies on BCR, mTOR, or MEK signaling and associated with mutations, gene expression, and DNA methylation. Fourteen percent of CLLs were driven by mTOR signaling in a non–BCR-dependent manner. Multivariate modeling revealed immunoglobulin heavy chain variable gene (IGHV) mutation status and trisomy 12 as the most important modulators of response to kinase inhibitors in CLL. Ex vivo drug responses were associated with outcome. This study overcomes the perception that most mutations do not influence drug response of cancer, and points to an updated approach to understanding tumor biology, with implications for biomarker discovery and cancer care.
Objective: To investigate the value of standard [digital rectal examination (DRE), PSA] and advanced (mpMRI, prostate biopsy) clinical evaluation for prostate cancer (PCa) detection in contemporary patients with clinical bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) scheduled for Holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP).
Material and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 397 patients, who were referred to our tertiary care laser center for HoLEP due to BOO between 11/2017 and 07/2020. Of those, 83 (20.7%) underwent further advanced clinical PCa evaluation with mpMRI and/or prostate biopsy due to elevated PSA and/or lowered PSA ratio and/or suspicious DRE. Logistic regression and binary regression tree models were applied to identify PCa in BOO patients.
Results: An mpMRI was conducted in 56 (66%) of 83 patients and revealed PIRADS 4/5 lesions in 14 (25%) patients. Subsequently, a combined systematic randomized and MRI-fusion biopsy was performed in 19 (23%) patients and revealed in PCa detection in four patients (5%). A randomized prostate biopsy was performed in 31 (37%) patients and revealed in PCa detection in three patients (4%). All seven patients (9%) with PCa detection underwent radical prostatectomy with 29% exhibiting non-organ confined disease. Incidental PCa after HoLEP (n = 76) was found in nine patients (12%) with advanced clinical PCa evaluation preoperatively. In univariable logistic regression analyses, PSA, fPSA ratio, and PSA density failed to identify patients with PCa detection. Conversely, patients with a lower International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and PIRADs 4/5 lesion in mpMRI were at higher risk for PCa detection. In multivariable adjusted analyses, PIRADS 4/5 lesions were confirmed as an independent risk factor (OR 9.91, p = 0.04), while IPSS did not reach significance (p = 0.052).
Conclusion: In advanced clinical PCa evaluation mpMRI should be considered in patients with elevated total PSA or low fPSA ratio scheduled for BOO treatment with HoLEP. Patients with low IPSS or PIRADS 4/5 lesions in mpMRI are at highest risk for PCa detection. In patients with a history of two or more sets of negative prostate biopsies, advanced clinical PCa evaluation might be omitted.
Safety requirements and the need of low‐migration UV inks have received increasing attention in the packaging industry. Crucial for the development and design of low‐migration UV inkjet inks for migration‐sensitive applications is the polymerization degree. In this study, curing‐behavior of a black, high purity packaging ink (HPP‐ink) was monitored using ATR‐FTIR spectroscopy. UV irradiation of HPP‐ink led to changes in specific absorption bands of the FTIR spectra due to crosslinking reaction of double bonds. Changes in absorptions bands at 1,408 and 1,321 cm−1 permitted the determination of CC conversion of acrylic and vinyl double bond, independently of one another. In addition, a method was developed which allows the investigation of surface‐cure and deep‐cure behavior, separately.
Simple Summary: The incidence of brain metastases from breast cancer is increasing and the treatment is still a major challenge. Several scores have been developed in order to estimate the prognosis of patients with brain metastases by objective criteria. Here, we validated all three published graded-prognostic-assessment (GPA)-scores in a subcohort of 882 breast cancer patients with brain metastases in the Brain Metastases in the German Breast Cancer (BMBC) registry. Although all three available GPA-scores were associated with OS, they all show limitations mainly in predicting short-term (below 3 months) survival but also in long-term (above 12 months) survival. We discuss the test performances of all scores in our work and provide evidence how physicians should use them as a tool to select patients for different treatment options.
Abstract: Several scores have been developed in order to estimate the prognosis of patients with brain metastases (BM) by objective criteria. The aim of this analysis was to validate all three published graded-prognostic-assessment (GPA)-scores in a subcohort of 882 breast cancer (BC) patients with BM in the Brain Metastases in the German Breast Cancer (BMBC) registry. The median age at diagnosis of BM was 57 years. All in all, 22.3% of patients (n = 197) had triple-negative, 33.4% (n = 295) luminal A like, 25.1% (n = 221) luminal B/HER2-enriched like and 19.2% (n = 169) HER2 positive like BC. Age ≥60 years, evidence of extracranial metastases (ECM), higher number of BM, triple-negative subtype and low Karnofsky-Performance-Status (KPS) were all associated with worse overall survival (OS) in univariate analysis (p < 0.001 each). All three GPA-scores were associated with OS. The breast-GPA showed the highest probability of classifying patients with survival above 12 months in the best prognostic group (specificity 68.7% compared with 48.1% for the updated breast-GPA and 21.8% for the original GPA). Sensitivities for predicting 3 months survival were very low for all scores. In this analysis, all GPA-scores showed only moderate diagnostic accuracy in predicting the OS of BC patients with BM.
Characteristics and clinical outcome of breast cancer patients with asymptomatic brain metastases
(2020)
Simple Summary: The prognosis for patients with breast cancer that has spread to the brain is poor, and survival for these women hasn’t improved over the last few decades. We do not currently test for asymptomatic brain metastases in breast cancer patients, although this does happen in some other types of cancer. In this study we wanted to find out more about breast cancer that has spread to the brain and in particular to see whether there might be any advantage to spotting brain metastases before the development of neurological symptoms. Overall, our results suggest that women could be better off if their brain metastases are diagnosed before they begin to cause symptoms. We now need to carry out a clinical trial to see what happens if we screen high-risk breast cancer patients for brain metastases. This will verify whether doing so could increase survival, symptom control or quality of life.
Abstract: Background: Brain metastases (BM) have become a major challenge in patients with metastatic breast cancer. Methods: The aim of this analysis was to characterize patients with asymptomatic BM (n = 580) in the overall cohort of 2589 patients with BM from our Brain Metastases in Breast Cancer Network Germany (BMBC) registry. Results: Compared to symptomatic patients, asymptomatic patients were slightly younger at diagnosis (median age: 55.5 vs. 57.0 years, p = 0.01), had a better performance status at diagnosis (Karnofsky index 80–100%: 68.4% vs. 57%, p < 0.001), a lower number of BM (>1 BM: 56% vs. 70%, p = 0.027), and a slightly smaller diameter of BM (median: 1.5 vs. 2.2 cm, p < 0.001). Asymptomatic patients were more likely to have extracranial metastases (86.7% vs. 81.5%, p = 0.003) but were less likely to have leptomeningeal metastasis (6.3% vs. 10.9%, p < 0.001). Asymptomatic patients underwent less intensive BM therapy but had a longer median overall survival (statistically significant for a cohort of HER2-positive patients) compared to symptomatic patients (10.4 vs. 6.9 months, p < 0.001). Conclusions: These analyses show a trend that asymptomatic patients have less severe metastatic brain disease and despite less intensive local BM therapy still have a better outcome (statistically significant for a cohort of HER2-positive patients) than patients who present with symptomatic BM, although a lead time bias of the earlier diagnosis cannot be ruled out. Our analysis is of clinical relevance in the context of potential trials examining the benefit of early detection and treatment of BM.
Background: Since there is no standardized and effective treatment for advanced uveal melanoma (UM), the prognosis is dismal once metastases develop. Due to the availability of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) in the real-world setting, the prognosis of metastatic UM has improved. However, it is unclear how the presence of hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis impacts the response and survival after ICB. Methods: A total of 178 patients with metastatic UM treated with ICB were included in this analysis. Patients were recruited from German skin cancer centers and the German national skin cancer registry (ADOReg). To investigate the impact of hepatic metastasis, two cohorts were compared: patients with liver metastasis only (cohort A, n = 55) versus those with both liver and extra-hepatic metastasis (cohort B, n = 123). Data were analyzed in both cohorts for response to treatment, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). The survival and progression probabilities were calculated with the Kaplan–Meier method. Log-rank tests, χ2 tests, and t-tests were performed to detect significant differences between both cohorts. Results: The median OS of the overall population was 16 months (95% CI 13.4–23.7) and the median PFS, 2.8 months (95% CI 2.5–3.0). The median OS was longer in cohort B than in cohort A (18.2 vs. 6.1 months; p = 0.071). The best objective response rate to dual ICB was 13.8% and to anti-PD-1 monotherapy 8.9% in the entire population. Patients with liver metastases only had a lower response to dual ICB, yet without significance (cohort A 8.7% vs. cohort B 16.7%; p = 0.45). Adverse events (AE) occurred in 41.6%. Severe AE were observed in 26.3% and evenly distributed between both cohorts. Conclusion: The survival of this large cohort of patients with advanced UM was more favorable than reported in previous benchmark studies. Patients with both hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis showed more favorable survival and higher response to dual ICB than those with hepatic metastasis only.
Objectives: To analyze the performance of radiological assessment categories and quantitative computational analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps using variant machine learning algorithms to differentiate clinically significant versus insignificant prostate cancer (PCa). Methods: Retrospectively, 73 patients were included in the study. The patients (mean age, 66.3 ± 7.6 years) were examined with multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) prior to radical prostatectomy (n = 33) or targeted biopsy (n = 40). The index lesion was annotated in MRI ADC and the equivalent histologic slides according to the highest Gleason Grade Group (GrG). Volumes of interest (VOIs) were determined for each lesion and normal-appearing peripheral zone. VOIs were processed by radiomic analysis. For the classification of lesions according to their clinical significance (GrG ≥ 3), principal component (PC) analysis, univariate analysis (UA) with consecutive support vector machines, neural networks, and random forest analysis were performed. Results: PC analysis discriminated between benign and malignant prostate tissue. PC evaluation yielded no stratification of PCa lesions according to their clinical significance, but UA revealed differences in clinical assessment categories and radiomic features. We trained three classification models with fifteen feature subsets. We identified a subset of shape features which improved the diagnostic accuracy of the clinical assessment categories (maximum increase in diagnostic accuracy ΔAUC = + 0.05, p < 0.001) while also identifying combinations of features and models which reduced overall accuracy. Conclusions: The impact of radiomic features to differentiate PCa lesions according to their clinical significance remains controversial. It depends on feature selection and the employed machine learning algorithms. It can result in improvement or reduction of diagnostic performance.
RECENTLY, PASSIVE ETFS AND INDEX FUNDS HAVE BECOME POPULAR AMONG INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS. IN OUR STUDY, WE INVESTIGATE WHETHER INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS BENEFIT FROM USING THEM. WITH DATA FROM ONE OF THE LARGEST BROKERAGES IN GERMANY, WE FIND THAT INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS WORSEN THEIR PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE AFTER USING THESE PRODUCTS IN COMPARISON TO NON-USERS. SINCE THESE SECURITIES MAKE MARKET TIMING EASIER, FURTHER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DECREASE IN USERS’ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO BAD MARKET TIMING.
THIS STUDY INVESTIGATES WHAT HAPPENS WHEN RETAIL CUSTOMERS ARE OFFERED FREE AND UNBIASED ADVICE. USING A LARGE FIELD EXPERIMENT IT SHOWS THAT THOSE WHO ACCEPT THE OFFER (5%) ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MALE, OLDER, WEALTHIER, MORE EXPERIENCED AND MORE FINANCIALLY SOPHISTICATED. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE ADVICE WOULD HAVE HELPED, IT ACTUALLY LARGELY FAILED TO HELP BECAUSE THE CUSTOMERS DID NOT LISTEN TO IT. OVERALL, OUR RESULTS SUGGEST THAT THE MERE AVAILABILITY OF UNBIASED FINANCIAL ADVICE IS A NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT CONDITION FOR BENEFITING RETAIL CUSTOMERS.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.