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Reconstructing Oligocene-Miocene paleoelevation contributes to our understanding of the evolutionary history of the European Alps and sheds light on geodynamic and Earth’s surface processes involved in the development of Alpine topography. Despite being one of the most intensively explored mountain ranges worldwide, constraints on the elevation history of the European Alps, however, remain scarce. Here we present stable and clumped isotope geochemistry 15 measurements to provide a new paleoelevation estimate for the mid-Miocene (~14.5 Ma) European Central Alps. We apply stable isotope δ-δ paleoaltimetry on near sea level pedogenic carbonate oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin (Swiss Molasse Basin) and high-Alpine phyllosilicate hydrogen isotope (δD) records from the Simplon Fault Zone (Swiss Alps). We further explore Miocene paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental conditions in the Swiss Molasse Basin through carbonate stable (δ18O, δ13C) and clumped (Δ47) isotope data from three foreland basin sections in different 20 alluvial megafan settings (proximal, mid-fan, and distal). Combined pedogenic carbonate δ18O values and Δ47 temperatures (30 ± 5°C) yield a near sea level precipitation δ18Ow value of -5.8 ± 0.2‰ and in conjunction with the high-Alpine phyllosilicate δD record suggest that the region surrounding the SFZ attained surface elevations of >4000 m no later than the mid-Miocene. Our near sea level δ18Ow estimate is supported by paleoclimate (iGCM Echam5-wiso) modeled δ18O values, which vary between -4.2 and -7.6‰ for the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin.
Reconstructing Oligocene–Miocene paleoelevation contributes to our understanding of the evolutionary history of the European Alps and sheds light on geodynamic and Earth surface processes involved in the development of Alpine topography. Despite being one of the most intensively explored mountain ranges worldwide, constraints on the elevation history of the European Alps remain scarce. Here we present stable and clumped isotope measurements to provide a new paleoelevation estimate for the mid-Miocene (∼14.5 Ma) European Central Alps. We apply stable isotope δ–δ paleoaltimetry to near-sea-level pedogenic carbonate oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin (Swiss Molasse Basin) and high-Alpine phyllosilicate hydrogen isotope (δD) records from the Simplon Fault Zone (Swiss Alps). We further explore Miocene paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental conditions in the Swiss Molasse Basin through carbonate stable (δ18O, δ13C) and clumped (Δ47) isotope data from three foreland basin sections in different alluvial megafan settings (proximal, mid-fan, and distal). Combined pedogenic carbonate δ18O values and Δ47 temperatures (30±5 ∘C) yield a near-sea-level precipitation δ18Ow value of ‰ and, in conjunction with the high-Alpine phyllosilicate δD value of ‰, suggest that the region surrounding the Simplon Fault Zone attained surface elevations of >4000 m no later than the mid-Miocene. Our near-sea-level δ18Ow estimate is supported by paleoclimate (iGCM ECHAM5-wiso) modeled δ18O values, which vary between −4.2 ‰ and −7.6 ‰ for the Northern Alpine Foreland Basin.
Africa's protected areas (PAs) are the last stronghold of the continent's unique biodiversity, but they appear increasingly threatened by climate change, substantial human population growth, and land-use change. Conservation planning is challenged by uncertainty about how strongly and where these drivers will interact over the next few decades. We investigated the combined future impacts of climate-driven vegetation changes inside African PAs and human population densities and land use in their surroundings for 2 scenarios until the end of the 21st century. We used the following 2 combinations of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs): the “middle-of-the-road” scenario SSP2–RCP4.5 and the resource-intensive “fossil-fueled development” scenario SSP5–RCP8.5. Climate change impacts on tree cover and biome type (i.e., desert, grassland, savanna, and forest) were simulated with the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM). Under both scenarios, most PAs were adversely affected by at least 1 of the drivers, but the co-occurrence of drivers was largely region and scenario specific. The aDGVM projections suggest considerable climate-driven tree cover increases in PAs in today's grasslands and savannas. For PAs in West Africa, the analyses revealed climate-driven vegetation changes combined with hotspots of high future population and land-use pressure. Except for many PAs in North Africa, future decreases in population and land-use pressures were rare. At the continental scale, SSP5–RCP8.5 led to higher climate-driven changes in tree cover and higher land-use pressure, whereas SSP2–RCP4.5 was characterized by higher future population pressure. Both SSP–RCP scenarios implied increasing challenges for conserving Africa's biodiversity in PAs. Our findings underline the importance of developing and implementing region-specific conservation responses. Strong mitigation of future climate change and equitable development scenarios would reduce ecosystem impacts and sustain the effectiveness of conservation in Africa.
Historically, the expansion of soy plantations has been a major driver of land-use/cover change (LUCC) in Brazil. While a series of recent public actions and supply-chain commitments reportedly curbed the replacement of forests by soy, the expansion of the agricultural commodity still poses a considerable threat to the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Identification of areas under high risk of soy expansion is thus paramount to assist conservation efforts in the region. We mapped the areas suitable for undergoing transition to soy plantations in the Legal Amazon with a machine-learning approach adopted from the ecological modeling literature. Simulated soy expansion for the year 2014 exhibited favorable validation scores compared to other LUCC models. We then used our model to simulate how potential future infrastructure improvements would affect the 2014 probabilities of soy occurrence in the region. In addition to the 2.3 Mha of planted soy in the Legal Amazon in 2014, our model identified another 14.7 Mha with high probability of soy conversion in the region given the infrastructure conditions at that time. Out of those, pastures and forests represented 9.8 and 0.4 Mha, respectively. Under the new infrastructure scenarios simulated, the Legal Amazonian area under high risk of soy conversion increased by up to 2.1 Mha (14.6%). These changes led to up to 11.4 and 51.4% increases in the high-risk of conversion areas of pastures and forests, respectively. If conversion occurs in the identified high-risk areas, at least 4.8 Pg of CO2 could be released into the atmosphere, a value that represents 10 times the total CO2 emissions of Brazil in 2014. Our results highlight the importance of targeting conservation policies and enforcement actions, including the Soy Moratorium, to mitigate future forest cover loss associated with infrastructure improvements in the region.