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In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen/Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSD) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6-months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify 7 distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 Hz and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b-values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b = 0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b = 3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach which approximates the surface-wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source-signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase-shift-elimination-method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the 7 prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows to constrain shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Questions: Habitat islands are often characterized by the presence of more or less sharp boundaries to adjacent matrix habitats. However, knowledge on boundaries of natural habitat islands is scarce, especially regarding patterns of beta diversity and its two underlying components: species turnover and nestedness. We therefore aim to quantify the effects of fine-scaled and sharp boundaries of quartz islands (quartz gravel-covered soils) on the different components of plant beta diversity and how they are linked to different soil environmental drivers. Location: Knersvlakte, Western Cape, South Africa. Methods: We sampled plant species richness in 56 fine-scale transects of 6 m × 1 m plots across eight different boundary types (four quartz island to matrix, four between habitats on quartz islands). Soil depth and chemistry (pH, electrical conductivity) were analyzed for each 1 m2 plot. Differences in the two beta diversity components (turnover and nestedness) for each boundary type were tested by t tests. We used linear models to test relationships between species and environmental dissimilarity. Results: All boundary types showed high beta diversity. Species turnover was the prevailing component for six boundary types, the nestedness component was only important for two boundary types. We found a significant linear increase of species dissimilarity with increasing dissimilarity in soil pH and distinct plant communities for the habitat types, but no significant increase for electrical conductivity or soil depth. Conclusions: The spatial distinctiveness of the quartz islands leads to sharp boundaries, which result in high beta diversity, mainly through species turnover. This reflects the high levels of diversification and adaptation of the local plant communities. Nestedness occurred at two boundaries to the matrix, indicating that the latter does not necessarily represent an impermeable boundary for all species of the respective ecosystem. Studying diversity patterns across boundaries contributes to the question of applicability of island biogeography theory to habitat islands.
Wildfire is the most common disturbance type in boreal forests and can trigger significant changes in forest composition. Waterlogging in peatlands determines the degree of tree cover and the depth of the burning horizon associated with wildfires. However, interactions between peatland moisture, vegetation composition and flammability, and fire regime in forested peatland in Eurasia remain largely unexplored, despite their huge extent in boreal regions. To address this knowledge gap, we reconstructed the Holocene fire regime, vegetation composition and peatland hydrology at two sites in Western Siberia near Tomsk Oblast, Russia. The palaeoecological records originate from forested peatland areas in predominantly light taiga (Pinus-Betula) with increase in dark taiga communities (Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata, Abies sibirica) towards the east. We found that the past water level fluctuated between 8 and 30 cm below the peat surface. Wet peatland conditions promoted broadleaf trees (Betula), whereas dry peatland conditions favoured conifers and a greater forest density (dark-to-light-taiga ratio). The frequency and severity of fire increased with a declining water table that enhanced fuel dryness and flammability and at an intermediate forest density. We found that the probability of intensification in fire severity increased when the water
level declined below 20 cm suggesting a tipping point in peatland hydrology at which wildfire regime intensifies. On a Holocene scale, we found two scenarios of moisture-vegetation-fire interactions. In the first, severe fires were recorded 45 between 7.5 and 4.5 ka BP with lower water level and an increased proportion of dark taiga and fire avoiders (Pinus sibirica at Rybanya and Abies sibirica at Ulukh Chayakh) mixed into the dominantly light taiga and fire-resister community of Pinus
sylvestris. The second occurred over the last 1.5 ka and was associated with fluctuating water tables, a declining abundance of fire avoiders, and an expansion of fire invaders (Betula). These findings suggest that frequent high-severity fires can lead to compositional and structural changes in forests when trees fail to reach reproductive maturity between fire events or where extensive forest gaps limit seed dispersal. This study also shows prolonged periods of synchronous fire activity across the sites, particularly during the early to mid-Holocene, suggesting a regional imprint of centennial to millennial-scale Holocene climate
variability on wildfire activity. Increasing human presence in the region of the Ulukh-Chayakh Mire near Teguldet over the last four centuries drastically enhanced ignitions compared to natural background levels. Frequent warm and dry spells predicted for the future in Siberia by climate change scenarios will enhance peatland drying and may convey a competitive advantage to conifer taxa. However, dry conditions, particularly a water table decline below the threshold of 20 cm, will probably exacerbate the frequency and severity of wildfire, disrupt conifers’ successional pathway and accelerate shifts towards more fire-adapted broadleaf tree cover. Furthermore, climate-disturbance-fire feedbacks will accelerate changes in the carbon balance of forested boreal peatlands and affect their overall future resilience to climate change.
Drought is understood as both a lack of water (i.e., a deficit compared to demand) and a temporal anomaly in one or more components of the hydrological cycle. Most drought indices, however, only consider the anomaly aspect, i.e., how unusual the condition is. In this paper, we present two drought hazard indices that reflect both the deficit and anomaly aspects. The soil moisture deficit anomaly index, SMDAI, is based on the drought severity index, DSI (Cammalleri et al., 2016), but is computed in a more straightforward way that does not require the definition of a mapping function. We propose a new indicator of drought hazard for water supply from rivers, the streamflow deficit anomaly index, QDAI, which takes into account the surface water demand of humans and freshwater biota. Both indices are computed and analyzed at the global scale, with a spatial resolution of roughly 50 km, for the period 1981–2010, using monthly time series of variables computed by the global water resources and the model WaterGAP 2.2d. We found that the SMDAI and QDAI values are broadly similar to values of purely anomaly-based indices. However, the deficit anomaly indices provide more differentiated spatial and temporal patterns that help to distinguish the degree and nature of the actual drought hazard to vegetation health or the water supply. QDAI can be made relevant for stakeholders with different perceptions about the importance of ecosystem protection, by adapting the approach for computing the amount of water that is required to remain in the river for the well-being of the river ecosystem. Both deficit anomaly indices are well suited for inclusion in local or global drought risk studies.
The analysis of charcoal fragments in peat and lake sediments is the most widely used approach to reconstruct past biomass burning. With a few exceptions, this method typically relies on the quantification of the total charcoal content of the sediment. To enhance charcoal analyses for the reconstruction of past fire regimes, and to make the method more relevant to studies of both plant evolution and fire management, more information must be extracted from charcoal particles. Here, I burned in the laboratory seven fuel types comprising 17 species from boreal Siberia, and build on published schemes to develop morphometric and finer diagnostic classifications of the experimentally charred particles. As most of the species used in this study are common to Northern Hemisphere forests and peatlands, these results can be directly applicable over a broad geographical scale. Results show that the effect of temperature on charcoal production is fuel dependent. Graminoids and Sphagnum, and wood (trunk) lose the most mass at low burn temperatures, whereas heathland shrub leaves, brown moss, and ferns retain the most mass at high burn temperatures. In contrast to the wood of trunk, the wood of twigs retained their mass at intermediate temperature. This suggests that species with low mass retention at hotter burning temperatures might be underrepresented in the fossil charcoal record. Charred particle aspect ratio (L/W) appeared to be the strongest indicator of the fuel type burnt. Graminoid charcoals are more elongate than those of all other fuel types, leaf charcoals are the shortest and bulkiest, and twig and wood charcoals are intermediate. Finer diagnostic features were the most useful in distinguishing between wood, graminoid, and leaf particles, but further distinctions within these fuel types are difficult. High-aspect-ratio particles dominated by graminoid and Sphagnum morphologies are robust indicators of cooler surface fires. Contrastingly, abundant wood and leaf morphologies and low-aspect-ratio particles likely indicate higher-temperature fires. However, the overlapping morphologies of leaves and wood from trees and shrubs make it hard to distinguish between high-intensity surface fires combusting living shrubs and dead wood and leaves or high-intensity crown fires combusting living trees. Despite these limitations, the combined use of charred-particle aspect ratios and fuel morphotypes can aid in more robustly interpreting changes in fuel source and fire type, thereby substantially refining histories of past wildfires. Further fields of investigation to improve the interpretation of the fossil charcoal records will require: i) More in-depth knowledge of plant anatomy for a better determination of fuel sources; ii) Relate the proportion of particular charcoal morphotypes to the quantity of biomass; iii) Link the chemical composition of fuels, combustion temperature, and charcoal production. The advanced use of image-recognition software to collect data on other charcoal features could also aid in extracting fire temperatures as well as a change in particles morphology and morphometry during particles transportation.
The Alpine orogeny is characterized by tectonic sequences of subduction and collision accompanied by break-off events and possibly preceded by a flip of subduction polarity. The tectonic evolution of the transition to the Eastern Alps has thus been under debate. The dense SWATH-D seismic network as a complementary experiment to the AlpArray seismic network provides unprecedented lateral resolution to address this ongoing discussion. We analyze the shear-wave splitting of this data set including stations of the AlpArray backbone in the region to obtain new insights into the deformation at depth from seismic anisotropy. Previous studies indicate two-layer anisotropy in the Eastern Alps. This is supported by the azimuthal pattern of the measured fast axis direction across all analyzed stations. However, the temporary character of the deployment requires a joint analysis of multiple stations to increase the number of events adding complementary information of the anisotropic properties of the mantle. We, therefore, perform a cluster analysis based on a correlation of energy tensors between all stations. The energy tensors are assembled from the remaining transverse energy after the trial correction of the splitting effect from two consecutive anisotropic layers. This leads to two main groups of different two-layer properties, separated approximately at 13°E. We identify a layer with a constant fast axis direction (measured clockwise with respect to north) of about 60° over the whole area, with a possible dip from west to east. The lower layer in the west shows N–S fast direction and the upper layer in the east shows a fast axis of about 115°. We propose two likely scenarios, both accompanied by a slab break-off in the eastern part. The continuous layer can either be interpreted as frozen-in anisotropy with a lithospheric origin or as an asthenospheric flow evading the retreat of the European slab that would precede the break-off event. In both scenarios, the upper layer in the east is a result of a flow through the gap formed in the slab break-off. The N–S direction can be interpreted as an asthenospheric flow driven by the retreating European slab but might also result from a deep-reaching fault-related anisotropy.
Plant community biomass production is co-dependent on climatic and edaphic factors that are often covarying and non-independent. Disentangling how these factors act in isolation is challenging, especially along large climatic gradients that can mask soil effects. As anthropogenic pressure increasingly alters local climate and soil resource supply unevenly across landscapes, our ability to predict concurrent changes in plant community processes requires clearer understandings of independent and interactive effects of climate and soil. To address this, we developed a multispecies phytometer (i.e., standardized plant community) for separating key drivers underlying plant productivity across gradients. Phytometers were composed of three globally cosmopolitan herbaceous perennials, Dactylis glomerata, Plantago lanceolata, and Trifolium pratense. In 2017, we grew phytometer communities in 18 sites across a pan-European aridity gradient in local site soils and a standardized substrate and compared biomass production. Standard substrate phytometers succeeded in providing a standardized climate biomass response independent of local soil effects. This allowed us to factor out climate effects in local soil phytometers, establishing that nitrogen availability did not predict biomass production, while phosphorus availability exerted a strong, positive effect independent of climate. Additionally, we identified a negative relationship between biomass production and potassium and magnesium availability. Species-specific biomass responses to the environment in the climate-corrected biomass were asynchronous, demonstrating the importance of species interactions in vegetation responses to global change. Biomass production was co-limited by climatic and soil drivers, with each species experiencing its own unique set of co-limitations. Our study demonstrates the potential of phytometers for disentangling effects of climate and soil on plant biomass production and suggests an increasing role of P limitation in the temperate regions of Europe.
Metal artifacts from the Paleometal Epoch (ca. 1100 BC–400 AD) of the Primorye (Russian Far East) have shed new light on the introduction of the earliest bronzes into the Pacific coastal areas of prehistoric Eurasia. However, little is known about raw material circulation and the role of metal in the context of inter-regional exchange. This paper investigates 12 copper artifacts from major Paleometal settlements using alloy composition, trace elements, and lead isotopes to explore the metal sources and distribution networks. The results suggest that most objects are made of a copper-tin alloy, but some have arsenic as a significant minor element . Geologically, copper is unlikely to have come from local ore sources, but rather from the Liaoxi corridor and Liaodong Peninsula in Northeast China. This may indicate an inland route of metal trade across Northeast China or alternately, a coastal route via the northern Korean Peninsula. Archaeologically, the combined study of artifact typology and chemistry indicates two possible origins for the metal: the Upper Xiajiadian culture in Northeast China and Slab Grave culture in Mongolia/Transbaikal. Remarkably, the connection with Upper Xiajiadian communities parallels the transport route along which millet agriculture spread from Northeast China to the Primorye during the Neolithic.
Positive plant–plant interactions are thought to drive vegetation patterns in harsh environments, such as semi-arid areas. According to the stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH), the role of positive interactions between species (facilitation) is expected to increase with harshness, predicting associated variation in species composition along environmental gradients. However, the relation between stress and facilitation along environmental gradients is debated. Furthermore, differentiating facilitative interactions from other underlying mechanisms, such as microtopographic heterogeneity, is not trivial. We analysed the spatial co-occurrence relationships of vascular plant species that form patchy vegetation in arid lapilli fields (tephra) from recent volcanic eruptions on La Palma, Canary Islands. Assuming a harshness gradient negatively correlated with elevation because the lower elevations are more arid and water availability is considered the most limiting resource, and that an outcome of facilitation is plants co-occurring in the same patch, from the SGH we expected a greater degree of co-occurrence at lower elevation. We tested this at both the species and the individual plant level. We analysed the species composition of 1277 shrubby vegetation patches at 64 different sampling points, ranging from the coast to around 700 m a.s.l. Patch morphology and microtopographic heterogeneity variables were also measured, to account for their potential effects on the species composition of patches. We used generalized linear models and generalized mixed-effects models to analyse species richness, number of individuals in patches and percentage of patches with positive co-occurrences, and a pairwise co-occurrence analysis combined with a graphical network analysis to reveal positive links between 13 of the species. We found that the percentage of patches with positive co-occurrences increased at higher elevations, in contrast to the predictions of the SGH, but in accordance with a refined stress-gradient hypothesis for arid sites, in which characteristics of the interacting species are incorporated.
The analysis of charcoal fragments in peat and lake sediments is the most widely used approach to reconstruct past biomass burning. With a few exceptions, this method typically relies on the quantification of the total charcoal content of the sediment. To enhance charcoal analyses for the reconstruction of past fire regimes and make the method more relevant to studies of both plant evolution and fire management, the extraction of more information from charcoal particles is critical. Here, I used a muffle oven to burn seven fuel types comprising 17 species from boreal Siberia (near Teguldet village), which are also commonly found in the Northern Hemisphere, and built on published schemes to develop morphometric and finer diagnostic classifications of the experimentally charred particles. I then combined these results with those from fossil charcoal from a peat core taken from the same location (Ulukh-Chayakh mire) in order to demonstrate the relevance of these experiments to the fossil charcoal records. Results show that graminoids, Sphagnum, and wood (trunk) lose the most mass at low burn temperatures (<300 ∘C), whereas heathland shrub leaves, brown moss, and ferns lose the most mass at high burn temperatures. This suggests that species with low mass retention in high-temperature fires are likely to be under-represented in the fossil charcoal record. The charcoal particle aspect ratio appeared to be the strongest indicator of the fuel type burnt. Graminoid charcoal particles are the most elongate (6.7–11.5), with a threshold above 6 that may be indicative of wetland graminoids; leaves are the shortest and bulkiest (2.1–3.5); and twigs and wood are intermediate (2.0–5.2). Further, the use of fine diagnostic features was more successful in separating wood, graminoids, and leaves, but it was difficult to further differentiate these fuel types due to overlapping features. High-aspect-ratio particles, dominated by graminoid and Sphagnum morphologies, may be robust indicators of low-temperature surface fires, whereas abundant wood and leaf morphologies as well as low-aspect-ratio particles are indicative of higher-temperature fires. However, the overlapping morphologies of leaves and wood from trees and shrubs make it hard to distinguish between high-intensity surface fires, combusting living shrubs and dead wood and leaves, and high-intensity crown fires that have burnt living trees. Distinct particle shape may also influence charcoal transportation, with elongated particles (graminoids) potentially having a more heterogeneous distribution and being deposited farther away from the origin of fire than the rounder, polygonal leaf particles. Despite these limitations, the combined use of charred-particle aspect ratios and fuel morphotypes can aid in the more robust interpretation of fuel source and fire-type changes. Lastly, I highlight the further investigations needed to refine the histories of past wildfires.
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.
The calcareous substrate of spring-fed fens makes them unique islands of biodiversity, hosting endangered, vulnerable, and protected vascular plants. Hence, spring-fed fens ecosystems require special conservation attention because many of them are destroyed (e.g. drained, forested) and it is extremely difficult or even impossible to restore the unique hydrogeological and geochemical conditions enabling their function. The long-term perspective of paleoecological studies allows indication of former wetland ecosystem states and provides understanding of their development over millennia. To examine the late Holocene dynamics of a calcareous spring-fed fen (Raganu Mire) ecosystem on the Baltic Sea coast (Latvia) in relation to environmental changes, substrate and human activity, we have undertaken high-resolution analyses of plant macrofossils, pollen, mollusc, stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes combined with radiocarbon dating (AMS) in three coring locations. Our study revealed that peat deposits began accumulating ca. 7000 cal. yr BP and calcareous deposits (tufa) from 1450 cal. yr BP, coinciding with regional hydrological changes. Several fire events occurred between 4000 and 1600 cal. yr BP, which appeared to have had a limited effect on local vegetation. The most significant changes in the forest and peatland ecosystems were at 3200 cal. yr BP associated with a dry climate stage and high fire activity, and then between 1400 and 500 cal. yr BP potentially associated with temperature changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age. Hydrological disturbances in the peatland catchment from 1400 cal. yr BP were most likely strengthened by human activity (deforestation) in this region. The relationship between the development of this peatland and changes in its catchment area, such as land cover changes or fluctuations in groundwater levels, suggest that protection and restoration of spring-fed fen ecosystems should also include the surrounding catchment. The presence of calcareous sediments, as well as appropriate temperature and local hydrological conditions appear to be the most crucial factors controlling Cladium marisus populations in our site - currently at the eastern limit of its distribution in Europe.
Hydro-climatic causes of widespread floods in central Europe : on rain-on-snow and Vb-cyclone events
(2021)
The presented work investigates the hydro-meteorological and hydro-climatological drivers of widespread floods in Central Europe during the past century. Due to the strong seasonality of the detected flood drivers, the thesis is divided into two parts: the first part focuses on widespread winter floods and the second one on extreme summer floods. For analysing past flood events, we profited from the dynamically downscaled centennial ERA-20C reanalysis (continuously from 1901—2010). The downscaling was performed over Europe with a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model (COSMO-CLM+NEMO) to represent the water cycle more realistic. These high resolution atmospheric data allowed us to study the four-dimensional atmospheric state during selected floods during the early decades of the 20th century for the first time with such a high temporal and spatial resolution.
During the winter half-year, the observed floods were particularly widespread. High peak discharges were recorded simultaneously in the Rhine, Elbe, and Danube catchments. Most of these trans-basin floods were compound events caused by rainfall during extensive snowmelt (i.e., rain-on-snow events). Interestingly, the winter flood time series exhibited a remarkable high flood frequency during the 1940s and 1980s, while other decades were flood-poor. We detected a synchronization of the inter-annual flood frequency with the superposition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The negative NAO phase is often associated with large snowfall and cyclone tracks over southern Europe, while the negative SCA pattern correlates with total precipitation in the affected river catchments.
During the summer half-year, most extreme floods in Central Europe were caused by so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. So far in the literature, only a few Vb-events, which occurred during the past two decades, have been analysed. We extended the previous case studies by several past Vb-cyclone floods since 1900. We investigated the processes that intensify Vb-cyclone precipitation with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics and the parametric transfer entropy measure TE-linear. Overall, an enhanced and dynamically driven moisture uptake over the Mediterranean Sea was found to be characteristic for Vb-events with heavy precipitation. This is supported by high information exchange from evaporation over the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea towards heavy precipitation in the Odra catchment. The dominating moisture uptake regions during the investigated events were, however, the European continent and the North Sea. A possible cause could be the pre-moistening of non-saturated continental moisture sources upstream of the affected river catchments as indicated by significant information exchange from land surface evaporation and soil moisture content along the Vb-cyclone pathway. Besides, evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea might contribute to Vb-cyclone intensification in the early stages of their development through latent heat release. On the catchment scale, orographic rainfall and convective precipitation further enhance the flood triggering rainfall. As expected, the Vb-cyclones mainly trigger precipitation along west-east orientated mountain ranges such as the Alps or Ore mountains due to their meridional pathway. Remarkably, during summer, we detected a convective fraction of up to 90% during the afternoons of individual days and up to 23% on average (based on convective cell tracking and convection-permitting simulations of selected flood events since 1900).
The presented analyses deepened the knowledge on atmospheric and hydroclimatic drivers of widespread floods in Central Europe. This will serve as a basis for future studies on the predictability of floods induced by rain-on-snow and Vb-cyclone precipitation events in the context of a changing climate.
The endemic argan tree (Argania spinosa) populations in southern Morocco are highly degraded due to overbrowsing, illegal firewood extraction and the expansion of intensive agriculture. Bare areas between the isolated trees increase due to limited regrowth; however, it is unknown if the trees influence the soil of the intertree areas. Hypothetically, spatial differences in soil parameters of the intertree area should result from the translocation of litter or soil particles (by runoff and erosion or wind drift) from canopy-covered areas to the intertree areas. In total, 385 soil samples were taken around the tree from the trunk along the tree drip line (within and outside the tree area) and the intertree area between two trees in four directions (upslope, downslope and in both directions parallel to the slope) up to 50 m distance from the tree. They were analysed for gravimetric soil water content, pH, electrical conductivity, percolation stability, total nitrogen content (TN), content of soil organic carbon (SOC) and C/N ratio. A total of 74 tension disc infiltrometer experiments were performed near the tree drip line, within and outside the tree area, to measure the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. We found that the tree influence on its surrounding intertree area is limited, with, e.g., SOC and TN content decreasing significantly from tree trunk (4.4 % SOC and 0.3 % TN) to tree drip line (2.0 % SOC and 0.2 % TN). However, intertree areas near the tree drip line (1.3 % SOC and 0.2 % TN) differed significantly from intertree areas between two trees (1.0 % SOC and 0.1 % TN) yet only with a small effect. Trends for spatial patterns could be found in eastern and downslope directions due to wind drift and slope wash. Soil water content was highest in the north due to shade from the midday sun; the influence extended to the intertree areas. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity also showed significant differences between areas within and outside the tree area near the tree drip line. This was the case on sites under different land usages (silvopastoral and agricultural), slope gradients or tree densities. Although only limited influence of the tree on its intertree area was found, the spatial pattern around the tree suggests that reforestation measures should be aimed around tree shelters in northern or eastern directions with higher soil water content or TN or SOC content to ensure seedling survival, along with measures to prevent overgrazing.
A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.
Extensive black shale deposits formed in the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic, supporting the notion that this emerging ocean basin was a globally important site of organic carbon burial. The magnitude of organic carbon burial in marine basins is known to be controlled by various tectonic, oceanographic, hydrological, and climatic processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales, the nature and relative importance of which are poorly understood for the young South Atlantic. Here we present new bulk and molecular geochemical data from an Aptian–Albian sediment record recovered from the deep Cape Basin at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 361, which we combine with general circulation model results to identify driving mechanisms of organic carbon burial. A multimillion-year decrease (i.e., Early Aptian–Albian) in organic carbon burial, reflected in a lithological succession of black shale, gray shale, and red beds, was caused by increasing bottom water oxygenation due to abating hydrographic restriction via South Atlantic–Southern Ocean gateways. These results emphasize basin evolution and ocean gateway development as a decisive primary control on enhanced organic carbon preservation in the Cape Basin at geological timescales (> 1 Myr). The Early Aptian black shale sequence comprises alternations of shales with high (> 6 %) and relatively low (∼ 3.5 %) organic carbon content of marine sources, the former being deposited during the global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, as well as during repetitive intervals before and after OAE 1a. In all cases, these short-term intervals of enhanced organic carbon burial coincided with strong influxes of sediments derived from the proximal African continent, indicating closely coupled climate–land–ocean interactions. Supported by our model results, we show that fluctuations in weathering-derived nutrient input from the southern African continent, linked to changes in orbitally driven humidity and aridity, were the underlying drivers of repetitive episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial in the deep Cape Basin. These results suggest that deep marine environments of emerging ocean basins responded sensitively and directly to short-term fluctuations in riverine nutrient fluxes. We explain this relationship using the lack of wide and mature continental shelf seas that could have acted as a barrier or filter for nutrient transfer from the continent into the deep ocean.
Central and western Europe were affected by a compressional tectonic event in the Late Cretaceous, caused by the convergence of Iberia and Europe. Basement uplifts, inverted graben structures, and newly formed marginal troughs are the main expressions of crustal shortening. Although the maximum activity occurred during a short period of time between 90 and 75 Ma, the exact timing of this event is still unclear. Dating of the start and end of Late Cretaceous basin inversion gives very different results depending on the method applied. On the basis of borehole data, facies, and thickness maps, the timing of basin reorganization was reconstructed for several basins in central Europe. The obtained data point to a synchronous start of basin inversion at 95 Ma (Cenomanian), 5 Myr earlier than commonly assumed. The end of the Late Cretaceous compressional event is difficult to pinpoint in central Europe, because regional uplift and salt migration disturb the signal of shifting marginal troughs. Late Campanian to Paleogene strata deposited unconformably on inverted structures indicate slowly declining uplift rates during the latest Cretaceous. The differentiation of separate Paleogene inversion phases in central Europe does not appear possible at present.
We combined biostratigraphical analyses, archaeological surveys, and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models to provide new insights into the relative sea-level evolution in the northeastern Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this area, characterized by a very complex tectonic pattern, we produced a new typology of sea-level index point, based on the foraminiferal associations found in transgressive marine facies. Our results agree with the sea-level history previously produced in this region, therefore confirming the validity of this new type of index point. The expanded dataset presented in this paper further demonstrates a continuous Holocene RSL rise in this portion of the Aegean Sea. Comparing the new RSL record with the available geophysical predictions of sea-level evolution indicates that the crustal subsidence of the Samothraki Plateau and the North Aegean Trough played a major role in controlling millennial-scale sea-level evolution in the area. This major subsidence rate needs to be taken into account in the preparation of local future scenarios of sea-level rise in the coming decades.
In partially molten regions inside the Earth, melt buoyancy may trigger upwelling of both solid and fluid phases, i.e., diapirism. If the melt is allowed to move separately with respect to the matrix, melt perturbations may evolve into solitary porosity waves. While diapirs may form on a wide range of scales, porosity waves are restricted to sizes of a few times the compaction length. Thus, the size of a partially molten perturbation in terms of compaction length controls whether material is dominantly transported by porosity waves or by diapirism. We study the transition from diapiric rise to solitary porosity waves by solving the two-phase flow equations of conservation of mass and momentum in 2D with porosity-dependent matrix viscosity. We systematically vary the initial size of a porosity perturbation from 1.8 to 120 times the compaction length. If the perturbation is of the order of a few compaction lengths, a single solitary wave will emerge, either with a positive or negative vertical matrix flux. If melt is not allowed to move separately to the matrix a diapir will emerge. In between these end members we observe a regime where the partially molten perturbation will split up into numerous solitary waves, whose phase velocity is so low compared to the Stokes velocity that the whole swarm of waves will ascend jointly as a diapir, just slowly elongating due to a higher amplitude main solitary wave. Only if the melt is not allowed to move separately to the matrix will no solitary waves build up, but as soon as two-phase flow is enabled solitary waves will eventually emerge. The required time to build them up increases nonlinearly with the perturbation radius in terms of compaction length and might be too long to allow for them in nature in many cases.
Several past summer floods in Central Europe were associated with so-called Vb‑cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. This study illustrates the usefulness of the parametric transfer entropy measure TE‑linear in investigating heavy Vb‑cyclone precipitation events in the Odra catchment (Poland). With the application of the TE‑linear approach, we confirm the impact of the Mediterranean Sea on precipitation intensification. Moreover, we also detect significant information exchange to Vb‑cyclone precipitation from evaporation over the European continent along the typical Vb‑cyclone pathway. Thus, the Mediterranean Sea could enhance the Vb‑cyclone precipitation by pre-moistening continental moisture source regions that contribute to precipitation downstream in the investigated catchments. Overall, the transfer entropy approach with the measure TE‑linear proved to be computationally effective and complementary to traditional methods such as Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics.
The future physiology of marine phytoplankton will be impacted by a range of changes in global ocean conditions, including salinity regimes that vary spatially and on a range of short- to geological timescales. Coccolithophores have global ecological and biogeochemical significance as the most important calcifying marine phytoplankton group. Previous research has shown that the morphology of their exoskeletal calcified plates (coccoliths) responds to changing salinity in the most abundant coccolithophore species, Emiliania huxleyi. However, the extent to which these responses may be strain-specific is not well established. Here we investigated the growth response of six strains of E. huxleyi under low (ca. 25) and high (ca. 45) salinity batch culture conditions and found substantial variability in the magnitude and direction of response to salinity change across strains. Growth rates declined under low and high salinity conditions in four of the six strains but increased under both low and high salinity in strain RCC1232 and were higher under low salinity and lower under high salinity in strain PLYB11. When detailed changes in coccolith and coccosphere size were quantified in two of these strains that were isolated from contrasting salinity regimes (coastal Norwegian low salinity of ca. 30 and Mediterranean high salinity of ca. 37), the Norwegian strain showed an average 26% larger mean coccolith size at high salinities compared to low salinities. In contrast, coccolith size in the Mediterranean strain showed a smaller size trend (11% increase) but severely impeded coccolith formation in the low salinity treatment. Coccosphere size similarly increased with salinity in the Norwegian strain but this trend was not observed in the Mediterranean strain. Coccolith size changes with salinity compiled for other strains also show variability, strongly suggesting that the effect of salinity change on coccolithophore morphology is likely to be strain specific. We propose that physiological adaptation to local conditions, in particular strategies for plasticity under stress, has an important role in determining ecotype responses to salinity.
Chondrules are thought to play a crucial role in planet formation, but the mechanisms leading to their formation are still a matter of unresolved discussion. So far, experiments designed to understand chondrule formation conditions have been carried out only under the influence of terrestrial gravity. In order to introduce more realistic conditions, we developed a chondrule formation experiment, which was carried out at long-term microgravity aboard the International Space Station. In this experiment, freely levitating forsterite (Mg2SiO4) dust particles were exposed to electric arc discharges, thus simulating chondrule formation via nebular lightning. The arc discharges were able to melt single dust particles completely, which then crystallized with very high cooling rates of >105 K h−1. The crystals in the spherules show a crystallographic preferred orientation of the [010] axes perpendicular to the spherule surface, similar to the preferred orientation observed in some natural chondrules. This microstructure is probably the result of crystallization under microgravity conditions. Furthermore, the spherules interacted with the surrounding gas during crystallization. We show that this type of experiment is able to form spherules, which show some similarities with the morphology of chondrules despite very short heating pulses and high cooling rates.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling (CLM) Community has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight Global Climate Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44◦(∼50 km), 0.22◦ (∼25 km) and 0.11◦ (∼12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modelling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM-RCM modelling chain.
The endemic argan tree (Argania spinosa) populations in South Morocco are highly degraded due to overbrowsing, illegal firewood extraction and the expansion of intensive agriculture. Bare areas between the isolated trees increase due to limited regrowth, but show lower soil quality than their neighbouring tree areas. Hypothetically, spatial differences of soil quality of the intertree area should result from translocation of litter or soil particles (by runoff and erosion or wind drift) from canopy-covered areas to the intertree areas. 385 soil samples were taken around the tree from the trunk along the tree drip line (within and outside the tree area) as well as the intertree area between two trees in four directions (upslope, downslope and in both directions parallel to the slope) and analysed for soil moisture, pH, electrical conductivity, percolation stability, total nitrogen content, content of soil organic carbon and C/N ratio. 74 tension-disc infiltrometer experiments were performed near the tree drip line, within and outside the tree area, to measure the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. We found that the tree influence on its surrounding intertree area is limited, with e.g., Corg- & N-content decreasing significantly from tree trunk to tree drip line. However, intertree areas near the tree drip line differed significantly from intertree areas between two trees, yet only with a small effect. Trends for spatial patterns could be found in eastern and downslope directions due to wind drift and slope wash. Soil moisture was highest in the north due to shade from the midday sun, the influence extended to the intertree areas. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity also showed significant differences between areas within and outside the tree area near the tree drip line. Although only limited influence of the tree on its intertree area was found, the spatial pattern around the tree suggests that reforestation measures should be aimed around tree shelters in northern or eastern directions with higher soil moistures, N- or Corg-content to ensure seedling survival.
In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen, Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSDs) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6 months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify seven distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b=0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b=3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach that approximates the surface wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase shift elimination method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the seven prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows the constraint of shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Non-technical summary: There has been a long history of conflicts, studies, and debate over how to both protect rivers and develop them sustainably. With a pause in new developments caused by the global pandemic, anticipated further implementation of the Paris Agreement and high-level global climate and biodiversity meetings in 2021, now is an opportune moment to consider the current trajectory of development and policy options for reconciling dams with freshwater system health. Technical summary: We calculate potential loss of free-flowing rivers (FFRs) if proposed hydropower projects are built globally. Over 260,000 km of rivers, including Amazon, Congo, Irrawaddy, and Salween mainstem rivers, would lose free-flowing status if all dams were built. We propose a set of tested and proven solutions to navigate trade-offs associated with river conservation and dam development. These solution pathways are framed within the mitigation hierarchy and include (1) avoidance through either formal river protection or through exploration of alternative development options; (2) minimization of impacts through strategic or system-scale planning or re-regulation of downstream flows; (3) restoration of rivers through dam removal; and (4) mitigation of dam impacts through biodiversity offsets that include restoration and protection of FFRs. A series of examples illustrate how avoiding or reducing impacts on rivers is possible – particularly when implemented at a system scale – and can be achieved while maintaining or expanding benefits for climate resilience, water, food, and energy security. Social media summary: Policy solutions and development pathways exist to navigate trade-offs to meet climate resilience, water, food, and energy security goals while safeguarding FFRs.
Late Paleozoic (Variscan) magmatism is widespread in Central Europe. The Lusatian Block is located in the NE Bohemian Massif and it is part of the Saxothuringian Zone of the Variscan orogen. It is bordered by two major NW-trending shear zones, the Intra-Sudetic Fault Zone towards NE and the Elbe Fault Zone towards SW. The scarce Variscan igneous rocks of the Lusatian Block are situated close to these faults. We investigated 19 samples from Variscan plutonic and volcanic rocks of the Lusatian Block, considering all petrological varieties (biotite-bearing granites from the Koenigshain and Stolpen plutons, amphibole-bearing granites from three boreholes, several volcanic dykes, and two volcanites from the intramontane Weissig basin). We applied whole-rock geochemistry (18 samples) and zircon evaporation dating (19 samples). From the evaporation data, we selected six representative samples for additional zircon SHRIMP and CA–ID–TIMS dating. For the Koenigshain pluton, possible protoliths were identified using whole-rock Nd-isotopes, and zircon Hf- and O-isotopes. The new age data allow a subdivision of Variscan igneous rocks in the Lusatian Block into two distinct magmatic episodes. The spatial relation of the two age groups to either the Elbe Fault Zone (298–299 Ma) or the Intra-Sudetic Fault Zone (312–313 Ma) together with reports on the fault-bound character of the dated intrusions suggests an interpretation as two major post-collisional faulting episodes. This assumption of two distinct magmatic periods is confirmed by a compilation of recently published zircon U–Pb CA–ID–TIMS data on further Variscan igneous rocks from the Saxothuringian Zone. New geochemical data allow us to exclude a dominant sedimentary protolith for the Koenigshain pluton as supposed by previous investigations. This conclusion is mainly based on new O- and Hf-isotope data on zircon and the scarcity of inherited zircons. Instead, acid or intermediate igneous rocks are supposed as the main source for these I-type granitoids from the Koenigshain pluton.
In this survey paper, we present a multiscale post-processing method in exploration. Based on a physically relevant mollifier technique involving the elasto-oscillatory Cauchy–Navier equation, we mathematically describe the extractable information within 3D geological models obtained by migration as is commonly used for geophysical exploration purposes. More explicitly, the developed multiscale approach extracts and visualizes structural features inherently available in signature bands of certain geological formations such as aquifers, salt domes etc. by specifying suitable wavelet bands.
The accessories perovskite, pyrochlore, zirconolite, calzirtite and melanite from carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites from the Kaiserstuhl are variously suited for the in situ determination of their U–Pb ages and Sr, Nd- and Hf-isotope ratios by LA-ICP-MS. The 143Nd/144Nd ratios may be determined precisely in all five phases, the 176Hf/177Hf ratios only in calzirtite and the 87Sr/86Sr ratios in perovskites and pyrochlores. The carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites belong to one of the three magmatic groups that Schleicher et al. (1990) distinguished in the Kaiserstuhl on the basis of their Sr, Nd and Pb isotope ratios. Tephrites, phonolites and essexites (nepheline monzogabbros) form the second and limburgites (nepheline basanites) and olivine nephelinites the third. Our 87Sr/86Sr isotope data from the accessories overlap with the carbonatite and olivine nephelinite fields defined by Schleicher et al. (1990) but exhibit a much narrower range. These and the εNd and εHf values plot along the mantle array in the field of oceanic island basalts relatively close to mid-ocean ridge basalts. Previously reported K–Ar, Ar–Ar and fission track ages for the Kaiserstuhl lie between 16.2 and 17.8 Ma. They stem entirely from the geologically older tephrites, phonolites and essexites. No ages existed so far for the geologically younger carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites except for one apatite fission track age (15.8 Ma). We obtained precise U–Pb ages for zirconolites and calzirtites of 15.66, respectively 15.5 Ma (± 0.1 2σ) and for pyrochlores of 15.35 ± 0.24 Ma. Only the perovskites from the Badberg soevite yielded a U–P concordia age of 14.56 ± 0.86 Ma while the perovskites from bergalites (haüyne melilitites) only gave 206Pb/238U and 208Pb/232Th ages of 15.26 ± 0.21, respectively, 15.28 ± 0.48 Ma. The main Kaiserstuhl rock types were emplaced over a time span of 1.6 Ma almost 1 million years before the carbonatites and carbonate-rich foidites. These were emplaced within only 0.32 Ma.
Fossil records of early solar irradiation and cosmolocation of the CAI factory: a reappraisal
(2021)
Calcium-aluminum–rich inclusions (CAIs) in meteorites carry crucial information about the environmental conditions of the nascent Solar System prior to planet formation. Based on models of 50V–10Be co-production by in-situ irradiation, CAIs are considered to have formed within ~0.1 AU from the proto-Sun. Here, we present vanadium (V) and strontium (Sr) isotopic co-variations in fine- and coarse-grained CAIs and demonstrate that kinetic isotope effects during partial condensation and evaporation best explain V isotope anomalies previously attributed to solar particle irradiation. We also report initial excesses of 10Be and argue that CV CAIs possess essentially a homogeneous level of 10Be, inherited during their formation. Based on numerical modeling of 50V–10Be co-production by irradiation, we show that CAI formation during protoplanetary disk build-up likely occurred at greater heliocentric distances than previously considered, up to planet-forming regions (~1AU), where solar particle fluxes were sufficiently low to avoid substantial in-situ irradiation of CAIs.
National greenhouse gas inventories (GHGIs) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGIs. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emission Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high global warming potentials (GWPs), and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication, its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions from 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35 %, indicating progress toward the target of a 79 % decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83) % of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GHGI) are submitted annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). They are estimated in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodological guidance using activity data, emission factors and facility-level measurements. For some sources, the outputs from these calculations are very uncertain. Inverse modelling techniques that use high-quality, long-term measurements of atmospheric gases have been developed to provide independent verification of national GHGI. This is considered good practice by the IPCC as it helps national inventory compilers to verify reported emissions and to reduce emission uncertainty. Emission estimates from the InTEM (Inversion Technique for Emissions Modelling) model are presented for the UK for the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) reported to the UNFCCC (HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-227ea, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee and HFC-365mfc). These HFCs have high Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and the global background mole fractions of all but two are increasing, thus highlighting their relevance to the climate and a need for increasing the accuracy of emission estimation for regulatory purposes. This study presents evidence that the long-term annual increase in growth of HFC-134a has stopped and is now decreasing. For HFC-32 there is an early indication its rapid global growth period has ended, and there is evidence that the annual increase in global growth for HFC-125 has slowed from 2018. The inverse modelling results indicate that the UK implementation of European Union regulation of HFC emissions has been successful in initiating a decline in UK emissions in the since 2018. Comparison of the total InTEM UK HFC emissions in 2020 with the average from 2009–2012 shows a drop of 35%, indicating progress toward the target of a 79% decrease in sales by 2030. The total InTEM HFC emission estimates (2008–2018) are on average 73 (62–83)% of, or 4.3 (2.7–5.9) Tg CO2-eq yr−1 lower than, the total HFC emission estimates from the UK GHGI inventory. There are also significant discrepancies between the two estimates for the individual HFCs.
AirCore samplers have been increasingly used to capture vertical profiles of trace gases reaching from the ground up to about 30 km, in order to validate remote sens- ing instruments and to investigate transport processes in the stratosphere. When deployed to a weather balloon, accu- rately attributing the trace gas measurements to the sampling altitudes is nontrivial, especially in the stratosphere. In this paper we present the CO-spiking experiment, which can be deployed to any AirCore on any platform in order to evalu- ate different computational altitude attribution processes and to experimentally derive the vertical resolution of the profile by injecting small volumes of signal gas at predefined GPS altitudes during sampling. We performed two CO-spiking flights with an AirCore from the Goethe University Frankfurt (GUF) deployed to a weather balloon in Traînou, France, in June 2019. The altitude retrieval based on an instantaneous pressure equilibrium assumption slightly overestimates the sampling altitudes, especially at the top of the profiles. For these two flights our altitude attribution is accurate within 250 m below 20 km. Above 20 km the positive bias becomes larger and reaches up to 1.2 km at 27 km altitude. Differences in descent velocities are shown to have a major impact on the altitude attribution bias. We parameterize the time lag between the theoretically attributed altitude and the actual CO-spike release altitude for both flights together and use it to empirically correct our AirCore altitude retrieval. Regard- ing the corrected profiles, the altitude attribution is accurate within ±120 m throughout the profile. Further investigations are needed in order to test for the scope of validity of this correction parameter regarding different ambient conditions and maximum flight altitudes. We derive the vertical resolu- tion from the CO spikes of both flights and compare it to the modeled vertical resolution. The modeled vertical resolution is too optimistic compared to the experimentally derived res- olution throughout the profile, albeit agreeing within 220 m. All our findings derived from the two CO-spiking flights are strictly bound to the GUF AirCore dimensions. The newly introduced CO-spiking experiment can be used to test differ- ent combinations of AirCore configurations and platforms in future studies.
U–Pb age spectra of detrital zircons related to the East European Platform could be traced in paragneiss through the whole Mid-German-Crystalline Zone (Variscides, Central Europe) from the Odenwald via the Spessart to the Ruhla crystalline forming an exotic unit between Armorica and Laurussia. The depositional ages of the paragneiss are defined by the youngest age of the detrital zircons and the oldest intrusion ages as Ordovician to Silurian. The Ediacaran dominated age spectrum of detrital zircons from the paragneiss of the East Odenwald suggests the latter to be derived from the shelf of the East European Platform (Baltica), which was influenced by the 1.5 Ga old detritus delivered from a giant intrusion (Mazury granitoid, Poland). The detrital zircon age spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic paragneiss of the East Odenwald and sandstone of the northern Holy Cross Mountains are identical. The pure Sveconorwegian spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic quartzite from the Spessart, (Kirchner and Albert Int J Earth Sci 2020) and the Ruhla (Zeh and Gerdes Gondwana Res 17:254–263, 2010) could be sourced from Bornholm and southern Sweden. A U–Pb age spectrum with 88% Palaeozoic detrital zircons from a volcano-sedimentary rock of the East Odenwald is interpreted to be derived from a Silurian magmatic arc (46%), which was probably generated during the drift of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone micro-continent to the south. A tentative plate tectonic model of Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is presented taking into account (a) the East European Platform related age spectra of the detrital zircons (b) the Ordovician to Silurian depositional age of the metasediments (c) the Silurian and Early Devonian intrusion age of the plutonic and volcanic rocks and (d) the U–Pb ages of the Middle Devonian high-grade metamorphism. The East European Platform-related part of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is interpreted as a micro-continent, which drifted through the Rheic Ocean to the south and collided with the Saxothuringian (Armorican Terrane Assemblage) during the Early Devonian. Such large-scale tectonic transport from the northern continent to the southern continent is also known from the SW Iberia, where Laurussia-related metasediments of the Rheic suture zone are explained by a large scale tectonic escape (Braid et al. J Geol Soc Lond 168:383–392, 2011).
The Weissert Event ~133 million years ago marked a profound global cooling that punctuated the Early Cretaceous greenhouse. We present modelling, high-resolution bulk organic carbon isotopes and chronostratigraphically calibrated sea surface temperature (SSTs) based on an organic paleothermometer (the TEX86 proxy), which capture the Weissert Event in the semi-enclosed Weddell Sea basin, offshore Antarctica (paleolatitude ~54 °S; paleowater depth ~500 meters). We document a ~3–4 °C drop in SST coinciding with the Weissert cold end, and converge the Weddell Sea data, climate simulations and available worldwide multi-proxy based temperature data towards one unifying solution providing a best-fit between all lines of evidence. The outcome confirms a 3.0 °C ( ±1.7 °C) global mean surface cooling across the Weissert Event, which translates into a ~40% drop in atmospheric pCO2 over a period of ~700 thousand years. Consistent with geologic evidence, this pCO2 drop favoured the potential build-up of local polar ice.
We combine structural analysis of fractures with 22 U–Pb dates measured in fracture-filling carbonate cements from bed-parallel fibrous calcite veins (beef), conjugated veins and faults within the Vaca Muerta Formation along the Andean fold and thrust belt in the Neuquén Basin. The measured ages constrain accurately the relationships between overpressures caused by hydrocarbon generation and Andean compression as mechanisms for natural fracturing and vein formation. Two generations of fibres have been identified in beef. The first one, consists of dark fibres from the inner zones, which are perpendicular to bedding and contain abundant cone-in-cone structures and hydrocarbon inclusions. U–Pb dating of these fibres yielded Early to Late Cretaceous ages from 116.7 ± 17.7 to 78.8 ± 10.2 Ma. The second generation of fibres corresponds to the outer zones and consists of white fibres oblique to bedding, indicating growth during layer-parallel shortening. Bed-perpendicular veins cutting beef yielded Late Cretaceous-late Palaeocene dates from 72.8 ± 22.4 to 60.9 ± 10.4 Ma. Eocene ages from 52.0 ± 2.9 to 42.2 ± 18.9 Ma were measured in bed-parallel slip surfaces and reverse and strike-slip faults, whereas Miocene dates from 13.9 ± 2.6 to 6.2 ± 1.1 Ma were measured in E-W calcite veins. U–Pb dating of veins, structural analysis of fractures and subsidence curves, indicate that beef inner zones formed in the oil window during burial of the Neuquén basin, and that tectonic stresses could enhance their formation. Beef outer zones and bed-perpendicular veins formed during E-W Late Cretaceous-late Palaeocene layer-parallel shortening. Contrarily, late Palaeocene-late Eocene bed-parallel slip surfaces and faults and Miocene E-W veins formed during NE-SW and E-W syn-to post-folding deformation, respectively. In both cases, syn-to post-folding compression occurred synchronously with forelandward migration of magmatic activity attributed to flat subduction of the Pacific slab beneath the Andes.
A massive occurrence of microbial carbonates, including abundant sponge remains, within the Devonian Elbingerode Reef Complex was likely deposited in a former cavity of the fore-reef slope during the early Frasnian. It is suggested that the formation of microbial carbonate was to a large part favored by the activity of heterotrophic, i.e., sulfate-reducing bacteria, in analogy to Quaternary coral reef microbialites. The Elbingerode Reef Complex is an example of an oceanic or Darwinian barrier reef system. In modern barrier reef settings, microbialite formation is commonly further facilitated by weathering products from the central volcanic islands. The Devonian microbialites of the Elbingerode Reef Complex occur in the form of reticulate and laminated frameworks. Reticulate framework is rich in hexactinellid glass sponges, the tissue decay of which led to the formation of abundant micrite as well as peloidal and stromatactis textures. Supposed calcimicrobes such as Angusticellularia (formerly Angulocellularia) and Frutexites, also known from cryptic habitats, were part of the microbial association. The microbial degradation of sponge tissue likely also contributed to the laminated framework accretion as evidenced by the occurrence of remains of so-called “keratose” demosponges. Further typical textures in the microbialite of the Elbingerode Reef Complex include zebra limestone, i.e., the more or less regular intercalation of microbial carbonate and cement. Elevated concentrations of magnesium in the microbialite as compared to the surrounding metazoan (stromatoporoid-coral) reef limestone suggests that the microbialite of the Elbingerode Reef Complex was initially rich in high-magnesium calcite, which would be yet another parallel to modern, cryptic coral reef microbial carbonates. Deposition and accretion of the microbialite largely occurred in oxygenated seawater with suboxic episodes as indicated by the trace element (REE + Y) data.
A general circulation model is used to study the interaction between parameterized gravity waves (GWs) and large-scale Kelvin waves in the tropical stratosphere. The simulation shows that Kelvin waves with substantial amplitudes (∼10 m s−1) can significantly affect the distribution of GW drag by modulating the local shear. Furthermore, this effect is localized to regions above strong convective organizations that generate large-amplitude GWs, so that at a given altitude it occurs selectively in a certain phase of Kelvin waves. Accordingly, this effect also contributes to the zonal-mean GW drag, which is large in the middle stratosphere during the phase transition of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Furthermore, we detect an enhancement of Kelvin-wave momentum flux due to GW drag modulated by Kelvin waves. The result implies an importance of GW dynamics coupled to Kelvin waves in the QBO progression.
Plain Language Summary: The variability of the tropical atmosphere at altitudes of about 18–40 km is dominated by a large-amplitude long-term oscillation of wind, the quasi-biennial oscillation, which has a broad impact on the climate and seasonal forecasting. This oscillation is known to be driven by various types of atmospheric waves with multiple spatial scales. Using a numerical model, this study reports a process of interaction between those waves on different scales, which has not been illuminated before. The result implies a potential importance of this process in the progression of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Proper model representations of these multiscale waves and tropical convection are required to simulate this process.
With the Earth system being about to leave Holocene conditions and thus the known safe operating space for humanity, frameworks such as the Planetary Boundaries (PBs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide quantitative metrics to guide sustainability transformations. In order to strive, not only for compliance with the PBs but also for societal well-being, some approaches attempt to combine both PBs and SDGs within a single assessment. We focus on two prominent examples, the “Doughnut” by Kate Raworth and the #SDGinPB project of the 2018 report to the Club of Rome, which are not only aimed at public outreach, but also at guiding policy-making. To meet these objectives, the approaches should possess a certain accuracy in determining the progress in achieving the SDGs and in complying with the PBs. We evaluate, by using a multi-indicator approach for comparison, whether both approaches’ limited set of indicators can still represent the SDGs’ complexity. This comparative approach estimates the progress in achieving SDGs, especially in the Global North, to be significantly lower. Based on these results and against the approaches’ purposes, we discuss their simplifications and at which point the results are no longer reliable. We conclude that global assessments can be an important factor in initiating transformative processes by stimulating public discourse, but that the actual implementation of these would require approaches with greater recognition of local particularities.
The Global South is facing severe challenges in ensuring livelihood security due to climate change impacts, environmental degradation and population growth as well as changing lifestyles. These complex problems cannot be solely solved by single scientific disciplines – they require transdisciplinary research (TDR). Stakeholders from civil society, the corporate sector, government and science need to pool their knowledge to find solutions for sustainable transformations. In Namibia, we have been involved in TDR projects on water supply, and sanitation services as well as livestock management in rangeland systems. In this paper, we review two TDR projects that differ in multiple ways and hence allow us to carve out structural differences and critically discuss research outcomes, lessons learned and the challenge of North–South collaborations. Our review builds upon published and unpublished project documents as well as expert interviews with Namibian and German researchers who were involved in the projects. Our results show that TDR can be put into practice in different ways, depending on the research focus and the period available. The TDR phases of problem framing, inter- and transdisciplinary integration were implemented with different tools and foci points. We discuss the role of project length and funding conditions for project success and outcome generation. In addition, we critically consider the role of Namibian and German researchers in these international collaborations. The conclusions we draw touch upon the points of preparatory research funding, the equal acknowledgement of Global South contributions to joint research projects and the explicit handling of TDR components in project work. Significance: • The current social-ecological challenges are complex and require TDR as a mode of knowledge coproduction, particularly in a development context. • Inter- and transdisciplinary integration are critical processes for a project to be successful and require the allocation of adequate time and monetary resources. • Longer-term projects with a funded preparatory research phase constitute a structural model for TDR as project outcomes can evolve over time. • Global South researchers carry a hidden burden in international collaborations that has to be adequately acknowledged upfront in project planning and final products.
Biogenic organic precursors play an important role in atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). One of the major precursor species is α-pinene, which upon oxidation can form a suite of products covering a wide range of volatilities. Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) comprise a fraction of the oxidation products formed. While it is known that HOMs contribute to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, including NPF, they have not been well studied in newly formed particles due to their very low mass concentrations. Here we present gas- and particle-phase chemical composition data from experimental studies of α-pinene oxidation, including in the presence of isoprene, at temperatures (−50 and −30 ∘C) and relative humidities (20 % and 60 %) relevant in the upper free troposphere. The measurements took place at the CERN Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber. The particle chemical composition was analyzed by a thermal desorption differential mobility analyzer (TD-DMA) coupled to a nitrate chemical ionization–atmospheric pressure interface–time-of-flight (CI-APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. CI-APi-TOF was used for particle- and gas-phase measurements, applying the same ionization and detection scheme. Our measurements revealed the presence of C8−10 monomers and C18−20 dimers as the major compounds in the particles (diameter up to ∼ 100 nm). Particularly, for the system with isoprene added, C5 (C5H10O5−7) and C15 compounds (C15H24O5−10) were detected. This observation is consistent with the previously observed formation of such compounds in the gas phase. However, although the C5 and C15 compounds do not easily nucleate, our measurements indicate that they can still contribute to the particle growth at free tropospheric conditions. For the experiments reported here, most likely isoprene oxidation products enhance the growth of particles larger than 15 nm. Additionally, we report on the nucleation rates measured at 1.7 nm (J1.7 nm) and compared with previous studies, we found lower J1.7 nm values, very likely due to the higher α-pinene and ozone mixing ratios used in the present study.
Biogenic organic precursors play an important role in atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). One of the major precursor species is α-pinene, which upon oxidation can form a suite of products covering a wide range of volatilities. Highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) comprise a fraction of the oxidation products formed. While it is known that HOMs contribute to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, including NPF, they have not been well studied in newly formed particles due to their very low mass concentrations. Here we present gas- and particle-phase chemical composition data from experimental studies of α-pinene oxidation, including in the presence of isoprene, at temperatures (−50 and −30 ∘C) and relative humidities (20 % and 60 %) relevant in the upper free troposphere. The measurements took place at the CERN Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber. The particle chemical composition was analyzed by a thermal desorption differential mobility analyzer (TD-DMA) coupled to a nitrate chemical ionization–atmospheric pressure interface–time-of-flight (CI-APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. CI-APi-TOF was used for particle- and gas-phase measurements, applying the same ionization and detection scheme. Our measurements revealed the presence of C8−10 monomers and C18−20 dimers as the major compounds in the particles (diameter up to ∼ 100 nm). Particularly, for the system with isoprene added, C5 (C5H10O5−7) and C15 compounds (C15H24O5−10) were detected. This observation is consistent with the previously observed formation of such compounds in the gas phase. However, although the C5 and C15 compounds do not easily nucleate, our measurements indicate that they can still contribute to the particle growth at free tropospheric conditions. For the experiments reported here, most likely isoprene oxidation products enhance the growth of particles larger than 15 nm. Additionally, we report on the nucleation rates measured at 1.7 nm (J1.7 nm) and compared with previous studies, we found lower J1.7 nm values, very likely due to the higher α-pinene and ozone mixing ratios used in the present study.
At high pressures, autoionization – along with polymerization and metallization – is one of the responses of simple molecular systems to a rise in electron density. Nitrosonium nitrate (NO+NO3−), known for this property, has attracted a large interest in recent decades and was reported to be synthesized at high pressure and high temperature from a variety of nitrogen–oxygen precursors, such as N2O4, N2O and N2–O2 mixtures. However, its structure has not been determined unambiguously. Here, we present the first structure solution and refinement for nitrosonium nitrate on the basis of single-crystal X-ray diffraction at 7.0 and 37.0 GPa. The structure model (P21/m space group) contains the triple-bonded NO+ cation and the NO3− sp2-trigonal planar anion. Remarkably, crystal-chemical considerations and accompanying density-functional-theory calculations show that the oxygen atom of the NO+ unit is positively charged – a rare occurrence when in the presence of a less-electronegative element.
Constraining the architecture of complex 3D volcanic plumbing systems within active rifts, and their impact on rift processes, is critical for examining the interplay between faulting, magmatism and magmatic fluids in developing rift segments. The Natron basin of the East African Rift System provides an ideal location to study these processes, owing to its recent magmatic-tectonic activity and ongoing active carbonatite volcanism at Oldoinyo Lengai. Here, we report seismicity and fault plane solutions from a 10-month temporary seismic network spanning Oldoinyo Lengai, Naibor Soito volcanic field and Gelai volcano. We locate 6827 earthquakes with ML -0.85 to 3.6, which are related to previous and ongoing magmatic and volcanic activity in the region, as well as regional tectonic extension. We observe seismicity down to ~17 km depth north and south of Oldoinyo Lengai and shallow seismicity (3 - 10 km) beneath Gelai, including two swarms. The deepest seismicity (~down to 20 km) occurs above a previously imaged magma body below Naibor Soito. These seismicity patterns reveal a detailed image of a complex volcanic plumbing system, supporting potential lateral and vertical connections between shallow- and deep-seated magmas, where fluid and melt transport to the surface is facilitated by intrusion of dikes and sills. Focal mechanisms vary spatially. T-axis trends reveal dominantly WNW-ESE extension near Gelai, while strike-slip mechanisms and a radial trend in P-axes are observed in the vicinity of Oldoinyo Lengai. These data support local variations in the state of stress, resulting from a combination of volcanic edifice loading and magma-driven stress changes imposed on a regional extensional stress field. Our results indicate that the southern Natron basin is a segmented rift system, in which fluids preferentially percolate vertically and laterally in a region where strain transfers from a border fault to a developing magmatic rift segment.
Deformation in the upper mantle is localized in shear zones. In order to localize strain, weakening has to occur, which can be achieved by a reduction in grain size. In order for grains to remain small and preserve shear zones, phases have to mix. Phase mixing leads to dragging or pinning of grain boundaries which slows down or halts grain growth. Multiple phase mixing processes have been suggested to be important during shear zone evolution. The importance of a phase mixing process depends on the geodynamic setting. This study presents detailed microstructural analysis of spinel bearing shear zones from the Erro-Tobbio peridotite (Italy) that formed during pre-alpine rifting. The first stage of deformation occurred under melt-free conditions, during which clinopyroxene and olivine porphyroclasts dynamically recrystallized. With ongoing extension, silica-undersaturated melt percolated through the shear zones and reacted with the clinopyroxene neoblasts, forming olivine–clinopyroxene layers. Furthermore, the melt reacted with orthopyroxene porphyroclasts, forming fine-grained polymineralic layers (ultramylonites) adjacent to the porphyroclasts. Strain rates in these layers are estimated to be about an order of magnitude faster than within the olivine-rich matrix. This study demonstrates the importance of melt-rock reactions for grain size reduction, phase mixing and strain localization in these shear zones.
In the Central German Uplands, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies have been particularly affected by climate change. With the establishment of beech forests about 3000 years ago and pure spruce stands 500 years ago, they might be regarded as ‘neophytes’ in the Hessian forests. Palaeoecological investigations at wetland sites in the low mountain ranges and intramontane basins point to an asynchronous vegetation evolution in a comparatively small but heterogenous region. On the other hand, palynological data prove that sustainably managed woodlands with high proportions of Tilia have been persisting for several millennia, before the spread of beech took place as a result of a cooler and wetter climate and changes in land management. In view of increasingly warmer and drier conditions, Tilia cordata appears especially qualified to be an important silvicultural constituent of the future, not only due to its tolerance towards drought, but also its resistance to browsing, and the ability to reproduce vegetatively. Forest managers should be encouraged to actively promote the return to more stress-tolerant lime-dominated woodlands, similar to those that existed in the Subboreal chronozone.
Role of the tropical atlantic for the interhemispheric heat transport during the last deglaciation
(2021)
Abstract
During the last deglaciation abrupt millennial-scale perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation massively altered the interhemispheric heat distribution affecting, for example, continental ice volume and hydroclimate. If and how the related cross-equatorial heat transport was controlled by the interplay between the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC) and northward-flowing North Brazil Current (NBC) remains controversial. To assess the role of tropical heat transport during the last deglaciation, we obtained a high-resolution foraminiferal Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) record from the BC domain at 21.5°S. The data reveal a yet undocumented warming of at least 4.6°C of the BC during Heinrich Stadial 1 at ∼16 ka indicating massive oceanic heat accumulation in the tropical South Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strongly diminished NBC prevented the release of this excess heat into the northern tropics. The observed magnitude of heat accumulation substantially exceeds numerical model simulations, stressing the need to further scrutinize atmospheric and oceanic heat transport during extreme climatic events.
Plain Language Summary
The Atlantic overturning circulation underwent abrupt millennial-scale perturbations. Such phases of sluggish oceanic circulation resulted in a substantial reduction of northward heat transport. As a consequence, substantial cooling occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere with severe effects on tropical precipitation. The distribution of heat within the western tropical Atlantic is accomplished by the southward-flowing BC and the northward-flowing NBC. By reconstructing SSTs for the interval between 20,000 and 10,000 yr before present, we assess the role of both currents in the interhemispheric heat transport during weak Atlantic overturning. We found that a sluggish overturning circulation resulted in anomalous southward heat transport by the BC in concert with a weak NBC, which lead to a yet undocumented warming of at least 4.6°C in the western tropical South Atlantic. This warming significantly exceeds reconstructions based on numerical simulations. This points to the need to further improve our understanding of changes in the cross-equatorial oceanic and atmospheric heat transport in response to rapid changes in ocean circulation, in particular as a significant weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation is predicted in the wake of anthropogenic climate change.