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So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid-spacings of 0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid-spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high-resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.
Air-sea feedbacks between the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere on various temporal and spatial scales play a major role in the Mediterranean regional climate system and beyond. The Mediterranean Sea is a source of moisture due to excess evaporation and, on a long-term average, is associated with a warming of the lower atmosphere in contact with the sea surface due to heat loss at the air-sea interface. The complex air-sea interactions and feedbacks in the Mediterranean basin strongly modulate the sea surface fluxes and favor several cyclogenetic activities under certain meteorological conditions. Examples of such cyclonic activities are medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) and Vb-cyclones. Medicanes are mesoscale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones, while Vb-cyclones are extra-tropical cyclones, that propagate from the Western Mediterranean Sea and travel across the Eastern European Alps into the Central European region. Extremely strong winds and heavy precipitation associated with these cyclones can lead to severe destruction and flooding. Changes in the intensity and frequency of these cyclones are also projected under changing future climate conditions, where the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hotspot in terms of rising temperatures.
The development of high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) has progressed our understanding of the processes characterizing the Mediterranean climate. However, large uncertainties still exist regarding the estimates of air-sea fluxes, which, in turn, affect the simulation of the Mediterranean climate. Several factors can be attributed to such discrepancies, such as data quality, temporal and spatial resolution, and the misrepresentation of physical processes. To overcome some of these inconsistencies and deficiencies of the existing climate simulations, a new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean regional coupled model (AORCM) has been developed to simulate the air-sea feedback mechanisms. This coupled model incorporates the coupling of RCM COSMO-CLM (CCLM) and the regional ocean model NEMO-MED12 for the Mediterranean Sea (MED) as well as NEMO-NORDIC for the North- and Baltic Sea (NORDIC). Several experiments were performed using both the coupled and uncoupled models to investigate the impact of air-sea interactions and feedbacks on sea surface heat fluxes, wind speed, and on the formation of Mediterranean cyclones (i.e., medicanes and Vb-cyclones). These experiments were performed using different horizontal atmospheric grid resolutions to analyze the effect of resolution on sea surface heat fluxes, wind speed, and the development of medicanes.
The results of the present study indicate that a finer atmospheric grid resolution ([is as appreciated as]9 vs. [is as appreciated as]50 km) improved the wind speed simulations (particularly near coastal areas) and subsequently improved the simulations of the turbulent heat fluxes. Both parameters were better simulated in the coupled simulations than in the uncoupled simulations, but coupling introduced a warm SST bias in winter. Radiation fluxes were slightly better represented in coarse-grid simulations than in fine-grid simulations. However, the higher-resolution coupled model could reproduce the observed net outgoing total surface heat flux over the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to that sub diurnal SST variations have a strong effect on sub-daily heat fluxes and wind speed but minor effects at longer timescales. Regarding the impact of atmospheric grid resolution ([is as appreciated as]50, 25, and [is as appreciated as]9 km) and ocean coupling on medicanes, it was detected that the coupled model with a finer atmospheric grid ([is as appreciated as]9 km) was able to not only reproduce most medicane events, but also improved the track length, warm core, and wind speed compared to the uncoupled model. The coupled model with the coarse-grid ([is as appreciated as]50 and [is as appreciated as]25 km) did not show any improvement in simulating medicanes compared to the uncoupled model. The spectral nudging technique, applied on the wind components above 850 hPa in the interior domain to keep large-scale circulation close to the driving data (i.e., ERAInterim reanalysis), improved the accuracy of the times and locations of generated medicanes, but no improvement was found in the track length and intensity.
Concerning the role of the Mediterranean Sea coupling on Vb cyclones, the investigation showed that atmosphere-ocean coupling had an overall positive impact, although with a strong case-by-case variation, on the trajectories and intensity of Vb-cyclones as a result of the variation in moisture source for each event. In general, all model configurations could replicate Vbcyclones, their trajectories, and associated precipitation fields. The average structure of the precipitation field was best represented in the coupled simulations. Coupling of the North- and Baltic Seas also showed an improvement in some of the simulated Vb-cyclones.
The atmosphere-ocean coupling showed an overall positive impact on the simulation of sea surface heat fluxes and Mediterranean cyclones (medicanes and Vb-cyclones). Moreover, the representation of sea surface heat fluxes, wind speed, and medicane features was more realistic when using a finer atmospheric grid resolution (less than 10 km). The present study suggests that the combination of a finer atmospheric grid resolution together with atmosphere-ocean coupling is advantageous in simulating the Mediterranean climate system.
Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS). The observational references in the evaluation are (a) analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b) ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty) or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2) of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.
Spatial interpolation of rain gauge data is important in forcing of hydrological simulations or evaluation of weather predictions, for example. The spatial density of available data sites is often changing with time. This paper investigates the application of statistical distance, like one minus common variance of time series, between data sites instead of geographical distance in interpolation. Here, as a typical representative of interpolation methods the inverse distance weighting interpolation is applied and the test data is daily precipitation observed in Austria. Choosing statistical distance instead of geographical distance in interpolation of an actually available coarse observation network yields more robust interpolation results at sites of a denser network with actually lacking observations. The performance enhancement is in or close to mountainous terrain. This has the potential to parsimoniously densify the currently available observation network. Additionally, the success further motivates search for conceptual rain-orography interaction models as components of spatial rain interpolation algorithms in mountainous terrain.
Spatial interpolation of rain gauge data is important in forcing of hydrological simulations or evaluation of weather predictions, for example. This paper investigates the application of statistical distance, like one minus common variance of observation time series, between data sites instead of geographical distance in interpolation. Here, as a typical representative of interpolation methods the inverse distance weighting interpolation is applied and the test data is daily precipitation observed in Austria. Choosing statistical distance instead of geographical distance in interpolation of available coarse network observations to sites of a denser network, which is not reporting for the interpolation date, yields more robust interpolation results. The most distinct performance enhancement is in or close to mountainous terrain. Therefore, application of statistical distance in the inverse distance weighting interpolation or in similar methods can parsimoniously densify the currently available observation network. Additionally, the success further motivates search for conceptual rain-orography interaction models as components of spatial rain interpolation algorithms in mountainous terrain.
Geoelektrische Methoden sind weit verbreitet und werden häufig zur Erkundung des oberflächennahen Untergrundes eingesetzt. Angewendet werden standardmäßig meist nur linienhafte Anordnungen der Sender- und Empfängerelektroden, die nur wenige Zehner Meter lang sind. Hierdurch haben diese Methoden nur geringe Eindringtiefen. Um größere Eindringtiefen und 3-dimensionale Informationen über den Untergrund zu erhalten, sind in der vorgestellten Studie die Empfänger- und Senderdipole in mehr oder weniger regelmäßigen Abständen über das Untersuchungsgebiet verteilt worden. Mit jeder Empfängerstation sind kontinuierlich die elektrischen Spannungen in bis zu drei Richtungen aufgezeichnet worden. Für die Einspeisungen wurde ein Rechtecksignal verwendet, das sich gut von den Störfrequenzen und den natürlichen Spannungen abhebt. Die Richtungen der Einspeisedipole sind entsprechend den örtlichen Gegebenheiten, jedoch möglichst parallel zu den Messrichtungen, gewählt worden. Zur Auswertung der erhobenen Messdaten wurde ein Programmpaket entwickelt, das eine weitestgehend automatisierte Auswertung der Daten erlaubt. Die Bestimmung der scheinbaren spezifischen Widerstände und ihrer Messfehler wurde an den fouriertransformierten Datenzeitreihen durchgeführt. Hierdurch konnten Störeinflüsse minimiert werden und es wurde möglich selbst stark verrauschte Datensätze auszuwerten. Um die erhobenen Daten interpretieren zu können sind die berechneten scheinbaren spezifischen Widerstände als Grundlage für Inversionen und Modellstudien verwendet worden. Die oben beschriebene Methode wurde im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit in zwei unterschiedlichen Messgebieten angewandt.
Messgebiet im Hohen Vogelsberg
Im Juli 2007 wurde damit begonnen, die Forschungsbohrung Sichenhausen-Eschwald im Hohen Vogelsberg abzuteufen. Ziel war es, Informationen über den strukturellen Aufbau des größten geschlossenen Vulkankomplexes Mitteleuropas zu gewinnen. Die Gesteinsansprache der Tiefbohrung lieferte bereits relativ früh Hinweise darauf, dass ein großer magmatischer Körper aufgeschlossen wurde.Aufgrund der begrenzten räumlichen Aussagekraft der Bohrung und fehlender Geländebefunde war es nicht möglich, den Mechanismus der Platznahme und die Größe des Körpers näher zu beschreiben. Die Kampagne hatte das Ziel diese Lücke zu schließen und ein 3-dimensionales Modell des Untergrundes zu erstellen.In dem annähernd quadratischen Untersuchungsgebiet, das eine Fläche von ca. 25 $km²$ aufweist, wurden 20 Datenlogger zur Aufzeichnung der elektrischen Spannungen aufgebaut. Die Empfängerdipole waren zwischen 20 m und 30 m lang. Insgesamt wurden 36 Stromeinspeisungen mit Stromstärken zwischen 28 A und 40 A an 16 unterschiedlichen Positionen für jeweils 2 bis 3 verschiedene Dipolrichtungen vorgenommen. Die Einspeisedipole waren zwischen 100 m und 300 m lang. Insgesamt konnten 1.439 scheinbare spezifische Widerstände berechnet werden.Die Ergebnisse der Modellierungen und der Inversion der Daten zeigen, dass mit der Forschungsbohrung ein domartiger Körper angebohrt wurde. Anhand der Ergebnisse kann die räumliche Ausdehnung des Körpers eingegrenzt und ein vorher noch nicht kartierter Gang nachgewiesen werden.
Messgebiet im Bereich der Kinzigtalsperre
Das etwa Ost-West verlaufende Kinzigtal bildet die naturräumliche und geologische Grenze zwischen dem vulkanischen Vogelsberg im Norden und dem, in diesem Bereich aus Sedimentgesteinen aufgebauten, Spessart im Süden.Die zwischen Steinau a. d. Str. und Bad Soden-Salmünster befindliche Kinzigtalsperre dient dem Hochwasserschutz und der Regulierung des Pegels der Kinzig bei Dürreperioden. Der aufgestaute See ist relativ flach und weist im Normalstau maximale Tiefen von ca. 6~m auf. Der Stausee ist jedoch über weite Teile etwa 4~m tief. In dieser Kampagne betrug der Abstand zwischen den einzelnen Empfängerstationen etwa 100 m bis 300 m. Es wurde aufgrund der beengten Platzverhältnisse eine Dipollänge von ca. 48 m für die Einspeise- und die Empfängerdipole im Messgebiet gewählt. Insgesamt wurden 14 Empfängerstationen im Messgebiet aufgebaut, von denen sich Neun auf dem Seegrund befanden. Das Messraster orientierte sich am vermuteten Verlauf der Kinzigtalstörung. An 8 Positionen sind in 21 Richtungen elektrische Ströme mit Stärken zwischen 2,2 A und 40 A in den Untergrund eingespeist worden. Es konnten 536 scheinbare spezifische Widerstände berechnet werden. Ziel war es, den Verlauf der Störung näher zu bestimmen und die Tiefe der im Untergrund vorhandenen salinären Grundwässer zu bestimmen. Die Bestimmung des Verlaufs der Kinzigtalstörung sowie die Tiefenbestimmung der salinären Grundwässer war mit den erhobenen Daten jedoch nicht möglich.
In Belize, which is well known for the Belize Barrier Reef and its offshore atolls, coastal lagoons are frequent morphological features along the coast. They represent transitional environments between siliciclastic and carbonate settings. In order to shed light into the Holocene evolution of coastal lagoon environments, five localities along the central coast of Belize were selected as coring sites. These include four coastal lagoons and one marsh area, namely Mantatee Lagoon, Mullins River Beach, Colson Point Lagoon, Commerce Bight Lagoon and Sapodilla Lagoon. A total of 26 sediment cores with core lengths ranging from 109 cm to 500 cm, were drilled using a Lanesky-vibracorer. Overall, 73 m of Holocene sediments and Pleistocene soil were recovered. Together with 58 radiocarbon dates the sediments reveal details on the sediment architecture and depositional features of the localities.
Marine inundation of the mainland and coastal lagoon formation started around 6 kyrs cal BP.
As a response to sea-level rise during the Holocene transgression, facies retrograded towards the coast, as seen in marginal marine overlying brackish mollusk faunas. Evidence for late Holocene progradation of facies due to sea-level stagnation is largely lacking. The occurrence of landward thinning sand beds, hiatuses and marine fauna in lagoonal successions are indications of event (overwash) sedimentation. Sediments recovered are largely of Holocene age (<7980 cal BP), overlying Pleistocene sections. Analyses of sediment composition and texture, radiocarbon dating and mollusk shell identification were used to describe and correlate sedimentary facies.
XRD analyses have identified quartz as the dominant mineral, with the Maya Mountains as main source of coastal lagoon sediments. The most common sedimentary facies include peat and peaty sediment, mud, sand, and poorly sorted sediments. Pleistocene soil forms the basement of Holocene sediments. Holocene mud represents lagoon background permanent sedimentation.
Peats and peat-rich sequences were deposited in mangrove swamp environments, whereas sandy facies mainly occur in the shoreface, beach, barriers, bars, barrier spits and overwash deposits. Facies successions could be identified for each locality, but it has proven difficult to correlate the stratigraphic sequences, especially among localities. These differences among the five locations studied suggest that apart from regional influence such as sea-level rise, local environmental factors such as small-scale variation in geomorphology and resulting facies heterogeneity, connectivity of the lagoon with the sea, antecedent topography and river discharge, were responsible for coastal sedimentation and lagoon development in the Holocene of Belize.
Faunal composition and distribution patterns of mollusk assemblages from 20 shell concentrations in cores collected in coastal lagoons, a mangrove-fringed tidal inlet and the marginal marine area (shallow subtidal) show considerable variation due to environmental heterogeneity and the interplay of several environmental factors in the course of the mid-late Holocene (ca. 6000 cal BP to modern). The investigated fauna ≥2 mm comprises 2246 bivalve, gastropod and 11 scaphopod specimens. Fifty-three mollusk species, belonging to 42 families, were identified. The bivalve Anomalocardia cuneimeris and cerithid gastropods are the dominant species and account for 78% of the total fauna. Diversity indices are low in concentrations from lagoons and relatively high in the marginal marine and tidal inlet areas.
Based on cluster analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), seven lagoonal assemblages and three marginal marine/tidal inlet assemblages were defined. A separation between lagoonal and marginal marine/tidal inlet assemblages seen in ordination indicates a lagoon-onshore gradient. The statistical separation among lagoonal assemblages demonstrates environmental changes during the Holocene evolution of the coastal lagoons, which is probably related to the formation of barriers and spits. The controlling factors of species distribution patterns are difficult to figure out, probably due to the heterogeneity of the barrier-lagoon systems and the interaction of paleoecological and paleoenvironmental factors. In addition to the taxonomic analysis, a taphonomic analysis of 1827 valves of A. cuneimeris from coastal lagoons was carried out. There is no relationship between depth and age of shells and their taphonomic condition. Size-frequency distributions and right-left valve ratios of A. cuneimeris suggest that valves were not transported over long distances but were deposited parautochthonously in their original habitat. Shells from tidal inlet and marginal marine environments were also predominantly deposited in their original habitats.
Since the Belize coast was repeatedly affected by hurricanes and the paleohurricane record for this region is poor, the sediment cores have been examined in order to identify storm deposits.
The paleohurricane record presented in this study spans the past 8000 years and exhibits three periods with increased evidences of hurricane strikes occurring at 6000-4900 cal yr BP, 4200-3600 cal yr BP and 2200-1500 cal yr BP. Two earlier events around 7100 and 7900 cal yr BP and more recent events around 180 cal yr BP and during modern times have been detected. Sand layers, redeposited corals and lagoon shell concentrations have been used as proxies for storm deposition. Additionally, hiatuses and reversed ages may indicate storm influence. While sand layers and corals represent overwash deposits, the lagoon shell concentrations, which mainly comprise the bivalve Anomalocardia cuneimeris and cerithid gastropods, have been deposited due to changes in lagoon salinity during and after storm landfalls. Comparison with other studies reveals similarities with one record from Belize, but hardly any matches with other published records. The potential for paleotempestology reconstructions of the barrier-lagoon complexes along the central Belize coast differs depending on geomorphology, and deposition of washovers in the lagoon basins is limited, probably due to the interplay of biological, geological and geomorphological processes.
Die Revolutionen des Meeres
(1843)
Floodplains play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle and are very important for biodiversity. Therefore, an improved representation of the dynamics of floodplain water flows and storage in global hydrological and land surface models is required. To support model validation, we combined monthly time series of satellite-derived inundation areas (Papa et al., 2010) with data on irrigated rice areas (Portmann et al., 2010). In this way, we obtained global-scale time series of naturally inundated areas (NIA), with monthly values of inundation extent during 1993–2004 and a spatial resolution of 0.5°. For most grid cells (0.5°×0.5°), the mean annual maximum of NIA agrees well with the static open water extent of the Global Lakes and Wetlands database (GLWD) (Lehner and Döll, 2004), but in 16% of the cells NIA is larger than GLWD. In some regions, like Northwestern Europe, NIA clearly overestimates inundated areas, probably because of confounding very wet soils with inundated areas. In other areas, such as South Asia, it is likely that NIA can help to enhance GLWD. NIA data will be very useful for developing and validating a floodplain modeling algorithm for the global hydrological model WGHM. For example, we found that monthly NIAs correlate with observed river discharges.
Floodplains and other wetlands depend on seasonal river flooding and play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle. They influence evapotranspiration, water storage and river discharge dynamics, and they are the habitat of a large number of animals and plants. Thus, to assess the Earth’s system and its changes, a robust understanding of the dynamics of floodplain wetlands including inundated areas, water storages, and water flows is required.
This PhD thesis aims at improving the modeling of large floodplains and wetlands within the global-scale hydrological model WaterGAP, in order to better estimate water flows and water storage variations in different storage compartments. Within the scope of this thesis, I have developed a new approach to simulate dynamic floodplain inundation on a global-scale. This approach introduces an algorithm into WaterGAP, which has a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (longitude and latitude) globally. The new approach uses subgrid-scale topography, based on high-resolution digital elevation models, to describe the floodplain elevation profile within each grid cell by applying a hypsographic curve. The approach comprises the modeling of a two-way river-floodplain interaction, the separate downstream water transport within the river and the floodplain – both with temporally and spatially different variable flow velocities – and the floodplain-groundwater interactions. The WaterGAP version that includes the floodplain algorithm, WaterGAP 2.2b_fpl, estimates floodplain and river water storage, inundated area and water table elevation, and also simulates backwater effects.
WaterGAP 2.2b_fpl was applied to model river discharge, river flow velocity, water storages, water heights and surface water extent on a global-scale. Model results were comprehensively validated against ground observations and remote sensing data. Overall, the modeled and observed data are in agreement. In comparison to the former version WaterGAP 2.2b, the model performance has improved significantly. The improvements are most remarkable in the Amazon River basin. However, the seasonal variation of surface water extent and total water storage anomalies are still too low in many regions on the globe when compared to observations. A detailed analysis of the simulated results suggests that in the Amazon River basin the introduction of backwater effects is important for realistically simulating water storages and surface water extent. Future efforts should focus on the simulation of water levels in order to better model the flow routing according to water slope. To further improve the model performance in specific regions, I recommend that the globally constant model parameters that affect inundation initiation, river-floodplain interaction, DEM correction for vegetation, and backwater amount at basin or subbasin-scale be adjusted.
WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a tool for modeling global water use and water availability. It participates among other models in the ISIMIP initiative (The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). As part of this initiative, the water temperature should be calculated by participating hydrological models because it plays a vital role in many chemical, physical and biological processes. Therefore, the subject of this master thesis is to implement the physically based surface water temperature computation after VAN BEEK ET AL. (2012) and WANDERS ET AL. (2019) into WaterGAP and compare the results to the statistical regression approach by PUNZET ET AL. (2012). The computation is validated with observed water temperature data obtained from the GEMStat water quality database. The results are good for arctic and temperate latitudes. Surface water temperatures for tropical rivers are overestimated, most likely due to the overestimation of precipitation temperatures, incoming radiation and groundwater temperatures. The comparison with the regression model by PUNZET ET AL. (2012) shows matching results. The regression model even matches with WaterGAP results for most of the simulations of the future under climate change conditions, where the regression model should stop working due to changing environmental parameters. Several assumptions had to be made in order to implement the water temperature calculation in Water-GAP. These include, e.g., discharge temperatures for power plant cooling water, precipitation and surface runoff temperatures. For model improvements, perhaps three different values for the different regions of the world should be used to cool down the precipitation and surface runoff. The model could also be improved by refining the ice formation calculation, especially for the conditions when the ice melts, breaks up and is transported downstream. Furthermore, the feedback to the river channel roughness could be implemented if ice has formed. The WaterGAP model upgraded with the water temperature calculation will help the ISIMIP initiative in the future.
Polarization of Λ and ¯Λ hyperons along the beam direction in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV
(2022)
The polarization of the Λ and ¯Λ hyperons along the beam (z) direction, Pz, has been measured in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV recorded with ALICE at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The main contribution to Pz comes from elliptic flow-induced vorticity and can be characterized by the second Fourier sine coefficient Pz,s2=⟨Pzsin(2φ−2Ψ2)⟩, where φ is thhyperon azimuthal emission angle and Ψ2 is the elliptic flow plane angle. We report the measurement of Pz,s2 for different collision centralities and in the 30%–50% centrality interval as a function of the hyperon transverse momentum and rapidity. The Pz,s2 is positive similarly as measured by the STAR Collaboration in Au-Au collisions at √sNN=200 GeV, with somewhat smaller amplitude in the semicentral collisions. This is the first experimental evidence of a nonzero hyperon Pz in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. The comparison of the measured Pz,s2 with the hydrodynamic model calculations shows sensitivity to the competing contributions from thermal and the recently found shear-induced vorticity, as well as to whether the polarization is acquired at the quark-gluon plasma or the hadronic phase.
IFLS-Journal. Nr. 3, 2003
(2003)
Nach dem aktuellen Stand der Klimaforschung, der vor allem im jüngsten Bericht des ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC) zusammengefaßt ist, liegt es nahe, von einem menschlichen Einfluß auf das globale Klima zu sprechen.Wenn es nicht gelingt, die bestehenden Wirtschafts- und Lebensweisen zu ändern, droht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit eine globale Klimaänderung in einem Ausmaß und in einer Geschwindigkeit, wie sie in den letzten 10.000 Jahren (im jüngeren Quartär) niemals aufgetreten ist. Um die deshalb zum Schutz des Klimasystems notwendigen Emissionsreduktionen zu bestimmen, wendet der Beirat das bereits 1995 in der Stellungnahme zur ersten Vertragsstaatenkonferenz genutzte Konzept der „Toleranzfenster“ erneut an. Dabei wird der für die kommenden 200 Jahre noch verbleibende Handlungsspielraum durch die normative Vorgabe von auf keinen Fall hinnehmbaren ökologischen, ökonomischen und sozialen „Leitplanken“ der Klimaentwicklung und der Klimapolitik ermittelt. Die Summe der Leitplanken definiert das „Toleranzfenster“ im Klimaschutz. Der Beirat geht davon aus, daß entsprechend dem „Berliner Mandat“ von 1995 und den in der Klimarahmenkonvention niedergelegten völkerrechtlichen Grundsätzen zunächst nur die in Anlage I aufgeführten Staaten (Industrieländer) durch konkrete Reduktionsziele in die Pflicht genommen werden. Für die Verteilung von Pflichten zwischen den einzelnen Ländern empfiehlt der Beirat den sogenannten „Pro-Kopf-Ansatz“ als grundsätzliches Kriterium, wobei in einer Übergangsphase andere Ansätze vorübergehend zum Einsatz kommen können. Daraus ergibt sich notwendigerweise ein stark verengter Handlungsspielraum für die Industrieländer. Der Beirat kommt zu dem Ergebnis, daß sein 1995 in der Stellungnahme zur ersten Vertragsstaatenkonferenz vorgeschlagenes Emissionsprofil („WBGUSzenario“) nur dann als mit den ökologischen, ökonomischen, sozialen und völkerrechtlichen Leitplanken verträglich ist, wenn es sich nicht nur auf Kohlendioxid bezieht, sondern auch die anderen wichtigen Treibhausgase wie Methan und Distickstoffoxid berücksichtigt.