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Hydro-climatic causes of widespread floods in central Europe : on rain-on-snow and Vb-cyclone events
(2021)
The presented work investigates the hydro-meteorological and hydro-climatological drivers of widespread floods in Central Europe during the past century. Due to the strong seasonality of the detected flood drivers, the thesis is divided into two parts: the first part focuses on widespread winter floods and the second one on extreme summer floods. For analysing past flood events, we profited from the dynamically downscaled centennial ERA-20C reanalysis (continuously from 1901—2010). The downscaling was performed over Europe with a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model (COSMO-CLM+NEMO) to represent the water cycle more realistic. These high resolution atmospheric data allowed us to study the four-dimensional atmospheric state during selected floods during the early decades of the 20th century for the first time with such a high temporal and spatial resolution.
During the winter half-year, the observed floods were particularly widespread. High peak discharges were recorded simultaneously in the Rhine, Elbe, and Danube catchments. Most of these trans-basin floods were compound events caused by rainfall during extensive snowmelt (i.e., rain-on-snow events). Interestingly, the winter flood time series exhibited a remarkable high flood frequency during the 1940s and 1980s, while other decades were flood-poor. We detected a synchronization of the inter-annual flood frequency with the superposition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The negative NAO phase is often associated with large snowfall and cyclone tracks over southern Europe, while the negative SCA pattern correlates with total precipitation in the affected river catchments.
During the summer half-year, most extreme floods in Central Europe were caused by so-called Vb-cyclones propagating from the Mediterranean Sea north-eastward to Central Europe. So far in the literature, only a few Vb-events, which occurred during the past two decades, have been analysed. We extended the previous case studies by several past Vb-cyclone floods since 1900. We investigated the processes that intensify Vb-cyclone precipitation with Lagrangian moisture-source diagnostics and the parametric transfer entropy measure TE-linear. Overall, an enhanced and dynamically driven moisture uptake over the Mediterranean Sea was found to be characteristic for Vb-events with heavy precipitation. This is supported by high information exchange from evaporation over the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea towards heavy precipitation in the Odra catchment. The dominating moisture uptake regions during the investigated events were, however, the European continent and the North Sea. A possible cause could be the pre-moistening of non-saturated continental moisture sources upstream of the affected river catchments as indicated by significant information exchange from land surface evaporation and soil moisture content along the Vb-cyclone pathway. Besides, evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea might contribute to Vb-cyclone intensification in the early stages of their development through latent heat release. On the catchment scale, orographic rainfall and convective precipitation further enhance the flood triggering rainfall. As expected, the Vb-cyclones mainly trigger precipitation along west-east orientated mountain ranges such as the Alps or Ore mountains due to their meridional pathway. Remarkably, during summer, we detected a convective fraction of up to 90% during the afternoons of individual days and up to 23% on average (based on convective cell tracking and convection-permitting simulations of selected flood events since 1900).
The presented analyses deepened the knowledge on atmospheric and hydroclimatic drivers of widespread floods in Central Europe. This will serve as a basis for future studies on the predictability of floods induced by rain-on-snow and Vb-cyclone precipitation events in the context of a changing climate.
Atmosphärische Schwerewellen spielen eine wichtige Rolle für die Zirkulation der mittleren Atmosphäre, die wiederum die Troposphäre auf saisonalen und längeren Zeitskalen beeinflusst, und stellen somit ein Schlüsselelement für das Wetter- und Klimageschehen dar. Eine adäquate Beschreibung des Lebenszyklus atmosphärischer Schwerewellen in den operationellen Modellen zur Wettervorhersage und Klimasimulation ist daher sehr wünschenswert. Um zu einer verbesserten mathematischen Darstellung der Schwerewellendynamik in den Modellen beizutragen, wurden in den vergangenen Jahren zahlreiche numerische Studien durchgeführt. Wenngleich auch viele der ablaufenden Prozesse gegenwärtig gut verstanden sind, stellt die Wechselwirkung zwischen den mesoskaligen Schwerewellen und den synoptischskaligen Prozessen aufgrund der hohen Komplexität der Strömung weiterhin eine besondere Herausforderung für die Erforschung der Schwerewellenaktivität dar und erfordert oftmals hochaufgelöste numerische Simulationen über große Modelldomänen.
Folglich ist es wichtig, dass die angewendeten numerischen Verfahren effizient sind und möglichst idealisierte, aber dennoch atmosphärenähnliche Szenarien simulieren. In dieser Arbeit wird ein effizientes numerisches Verfahren zur Modellierung der Dynamik interner Schwerewellen sowie deren Einfluss auf die Zirkulation der mittleren Atmosphäre entwickelt.
Dabei wird die Diskretisierung des pseudo-inkompressiblen Finite-Volumen-Modells auf einem versetzten Gitter von Rieper et al. (2013), welches der Einfachheit halber Schallwellen aus der Dynamik herausfiltert und zur Untersuchung adiabatischer Atmosphärenprozesse auf der f-Ebene entwickelt wurde, im wesentlichen durch zwei Komponenten erweitert: 1) die Anwendung eines semi-impliziten Zeitschrittverfahrens auf die Bewegungsgleichungen zur Integration der Auftriebs- und Corioliseffekte und 2) die Berücksichtigung einer Heizung durch einen thermischen Relaxationsansatz, welcher in der Troposphäre ein baroklin instabiles Strömungsprofil erzeugt und eine zeitabhängige Dynamik des Hintergrundzustands zulässt. Zur Überprüfung der korrekten Implementierung der Erweiterungen werden eine Reihe von atmosphärischen Standardteststudien durchgeführt, welche die Konvergenzeigenschaften sowie die Effizienz des Verfahrens validieren. Darüber hinaus zeigen die Testfälle, dass die Ergebnisse des Modells mit anderen veröffentlichten Arbeiten sehr gut übereinstimmen.
Schließlich wird als Anwendungstestfall eine mesoskalige Simulation barokliner Instabilität in der Troposphäre durchgeführt, welche ferner die darin enthaltene kleinskalige Wellenaktivität sowie deren Einfluss auf die mittlere Atmosphäre modelliert. Die abschließende Betrachung der zonal und zeitlich gemittelten Felder zeigt die erwartete Zonalwindumkehr in der Höhe.
Ob wir bei der Erwärmung eher in Richtung plus 2 Grad oder eher in Richtung plus 5 Grad steuern, entscheidet sich zu einem nicht unbedeutenden Teil über den Meeren. Dort beschatten niedrige, flache, sehr großflächige Wolkenschichten die darunterliegende Wasseroberfläche und sorgen so für Abkühlung. Auch in Zukunft noch?
Non-technical summary: There has been a long history of conflicts, studies, and debate over how to both protect rivers and develop them sustainably. With a pause in new developments caused by the global pandemic, anticipated further implementation of the Paris Agreement and high-level global climate and biodiversity meetings in 2021, now is an opportune moment to consider the current trajectory of development and policy options for reconciling dams with freshwater system health. Technical summary: We calculate potential loss of free-flowing rivers (FFRs) if proposed hydropower projects are built globally. Over 260,000 km of rivers, including Amazon, Congo, Irrawaddy, and Salween mainstem rivers, would lose free-flowing status if all dams were built. We propose a set of tested and proven solutions to navigate trade-offs associated with river conservation and dam development. These solution pathways are framed within the mitigation hierarchy and include (1) avoidance through either formal river protection or through exploration of alternative development options; (2) minimization of impacts through strategic or system-scale planning or re-regulation of downstream flows; (3) restoration of rivers through dam removal; and (4) mitigation of dam impacts through biodiversity offsets that include restoration and protection of FFRs. A series of examples illustrate how avoiding or reducing impacts on rivers is possible – particularly when implemented at a system scale – and can be achieved while maintaining or expanding benefits for climate resilience, water, food, and energy security. Social media summary: Policy solutions and development pathways exist to navigate trade-offs to meet climate resilience, water, food, and energy security goals while safeguarding FFRs.
U–Pb age spectra of detrital zircons related to the East European Platform could be traced in paragneiss through the whole Mid-German-Crystalline Zone (Variscides, Central Europe) from the Odenwald via the Spessart to the Ruhla crystalline forming an exotic unit between Armorica and Laurussia. The depositional ages of the paragneiss are defined by the youngest age of the detrital zircons and the oldest intrusion ages as Ordovician to Silurian. The Ediacaran dominated age spectrum of detrital zircons from the paragneiss of the East Odenwald suggests the latter to be derived from the shelf of the East European Platform (Baltica), which was influenced by the 1.5 Ga old detritus delivered from a giant intrusion (Mazury granitoid, Poland). The detrital zircon age spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic paragneiss of the East Odenwald and sandstone of the northern Holy Cross Mountains are identical. The pure Sveconorwegian spectrum of the lower Palaeozoic quartzite from the Spessart, (Kirchner and Albert Int J Earth Sci 2020) and the Ruhla (Zeh and Gerdes Gondwana Res 17:254–263, 2010) could be sourced from Bornholm and southern Sweden. A U–Pb age spectrum with 88% Palaeozoic detrital zircons from a volcano-sedimentary rock of the East Odenwald is interpreted to be derived from a Silurian magmatic arc (46%), which was probably generated during the drift of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone micro-continent to the south. A tentative plate tectonic model of Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is presented taking into account (a) the East European Platform related age spectra of the detrital zircons (b) the Ordovician to Silurian depositional age of the metasediments (c) the Silurian and Early Devonian intrusion age of the plutonic and volcanic rocks and (d) the U–Pb ages of the Middle Devonian high-grade metamorphism. The East European Platform-related part of the Mid-German-Crystalline Zone is interpreted as a micro-continent, which drifted through the Rheic Ocean to the south and collided with the Saxothuringian (Armorican Terrane Assemblage) during the Early Devonian. Such large-scale tectonic transport from the northern continent to the southern continent is also known from the SW Iberia, where Laurussia-related metasediments of the Rheic suture zone are explained by a large scale tectonic escape (Braid et al. J Geol Soc Lond 168:383–392, 2011).
In partially molten regions inside the earth melt buoyancy may trigger upwelling of both solid and fluid phases, i.e. diapirism. If the melt is allowed to move separately with respect to the matrix, melt perturbations may evolve into solitary porosity waves. While diapirs may form on a wide range of scales, porosity waves are restricted to sizes of a few times the compaction length. Thus, the size of a partially molten perturbation controls whether a diapir or a porosity wave will emerge. We study the transition from diapiric rise to solitary porosity waves by solving the two-phase flow equations of conservation of mass and momentum in 2D with porosity dependent matrix viscosity. We systematically vary the initial size of a porosity perturbation from 1 to 100 times the compaction length. If the perturbation is much larger than a regular solitary wave, its Stokes velocity is large and therefore faster than the segregating melt. Consequently, the fluid is not able to form a porosity wave and a diapir emerges. For small perturbations solitary waves emerge, either with a positive or negative vertical matrix velocity inside. In between the diapir and solitary wave regimes we observe a third regime of solitary wave induced focusing of melt. In these cases, diapirism is dominant but the fluid is still fast enough to locally build up small solitary waves which rise slightly faster than the diapir and form finger like structures at the front of the diapir. In our numerical simulations the width of these fingers is controlled by the compaction length or the grid size, whichever is larger. In cases where the compaction length becomes similar to or smaller than the grid size the finger-like leading solitary porosity waves are no more properly resolved, and too big and too fast waves may be the result. Therefore, one should be careful in large scale two-phase flow modelling with melt focusing especially when compaction length and grid size are of similar order.
The analysis of charcoal fragments in peat and lake sediments is the most widely used approach to reconstruct past biomass burning. With a few exceptions, this method typically relies on the quantification of the total charcoal content of the sediment. To enhance charcoal analyses for the reconstruction of past fire regimes, and to make the method more relevant to studies of both plant evolution and fire management, more information must be extracted from charcoal particles. Here, I burned in the laboratory seven fuel types comprising 17 species from boreal Siberia, and build on published schemes to develop morphometric and finer diagnostic classifications of the experimentally charred particles. As most of the species used in this study are common to Northern Hemisphere forests and peatlands, these results can be directly applicable over a broad geographical scale. Results show that the effect of temperature on charcoal production is fuel dependent. Graminoids and Sphagnum, and wood (trunk) lose the most mass at low burn temperatures, whereas heathland shrub leaves, brown moss, and ferns retain the most mass at high burn temperatures. In contrast to the wood of trunk, the wood of twigs retained their mass at intermediate temperature. This suggests that species with low mass retention at hotter burning temperatures might be underrepresented in the fossil charcoal record. Charred particle aspect ratio (L/W) appeared to be the strongest indicator of the fuel type burnt. Graminoid charcoals are more elongate than those of all other fuel types, leaf charcoals are the shortest and bulkiest, and twig and wood charcoals are intermediate. Finer diagnostic features were the most useful in distinguishing between wood, graminoid, and leaf particles, but further distinctions within these fuel types are difficult. High-aspect-ratio particles dominated by graminoid and Sphagnum morphologies are robust indicators of cooler surface fires. Contrastingly, abundant wood and leaf morphologies and low-aspect-ratio particles likely indicate higher-temperature fires. However, the overlapping morphologies of leaves and wood from trees and shrubs make it hard to distinguish between high-intensity surface fires combusting living shrubs and dead wood and leaves or high-intensity crown fires combusting living trees. Despite these limitations, the combined use of charred-particle aspect ratios and fuel morphotypes can aid in more robustly interpreting changes in fuel source and fire type, thereby substantially refining histories of past wildfires. Further fields of investigation to improve the interpretation of the fossil charcoal records will require: i) More in-depth knowledge of plant anatomy for a better determination of fuel sources; ii) Relate the proportion of particular charcoal morphotypes to the quantity of biomass; iii) Link the chemical composition of fuels, combustion temperature, and charcoal production. The advanced use of image-recognition software to collect data on other charcoal features could also aid in extracting fire temperatures as well as a change in particles morphology and morphometry during particles transportation.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling (CLM) Community has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight Global Climate Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44◦(∼50 km), 0.22◦ (∼25 km) and 0.11◦ (∼12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modelling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM-RCM modelling chain.
In this study, we determine spectral characteristics and amplitude decays of wind turbine induced seismic signals in the far field of a wind farm (WF) close to Uettingen/Germany. Average power spectral densities (PSD) are calculated from 10 min time segments extracted from (up to) 6-months of continuous recordings at 19 seismic stations, positioned along an 8 km profile starting from the WF. We identify 7 distinct PSD peaks in the frequency range between 1 Hz and 8 Hz that can be observed to at least 4 km distance; lower-frequency peaks are detectable up to the end of the profile. At distances between 300 m and 4 km the PSD amplitude decay can be described by a power law with exponent b. The measured b-values exhibit a linear frequency dependence and range from b = 0.39 at 1.14 Hz to b = 3.93 at 7.6 Hz. In a second step, the seismic radiation and amplitude decays are modeled using an analytical approach which approximates the surface-wave field. Since we observe temporally varying phase differences between seismograms recorded directly at the base of the individual wind turbines (WTs), source-signal phase information is included in the modeling approach. We show that phase differences between source signals have significant effects on the seismic radiation pattern and amplitude decays. Therefore, we develop a phase-shift-elimination-method to handle the challenge of choosing representative source characteristics as an input for the modeling. To optimize the fitting of modeled and observed amplitude decay curves, we perform a grid search to constrain the two model parameters, i.e., the seismic shear wave velocity and quality factor. The comparison of modeled and observed amplitude decays for the 7 prominent frequencies shows very good agreement and allows to constrain shear velocities and quality factors for a two-layer model of the subsurface. The approach is generalized to predict amplitude decays and radiation patterns for WFs of arbitrary geometry.
Hyrrokkin sarcophaga is a parasitic foraminifer that is commonly found in cold-water coral reefs where it infests the file clam Acesta excavata and the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa. Here, we present measurements of the elemental and isotopic composition of this parasitic foraminifer for the first time, analyzed by inductively coupled optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), electron probe micro analysis (EPMA) and mass spectrometry (MS). Our results reveal that the geochemical signature of H. sarcophaga depends on the host organism it infests. Sr/Ca ratios are 1.1 mmol mol-1 higher in H. sarcophaga that infest L. pertusa, which could be an indication that dissolved host carbonate material is utilised in shell calcification, given that the aragonite of L. pertusa has a naturally higher Sr concentration compared to the calcite of A. excavata.Similarly, we measure 3.1 ‰ lower δ13C and 0.25 ‰ lower δ18O values in H. sarcophaga that lived on20 L. pertusa, which might be caused by the direct uptake of the host’s carbonate material with a more negative isotopic composition or different pH regimes in these foraminifera (pH can exert a control on the extent of CO2 hydration/hydroxylation) due to the uptake of body fluids of the host. We also observe higher Mn/Ca ratios in foraminifers that lived on A. excavata but did not penetrate the host shell compared to specimen that penetrated the shell, which could be interpreted as a change in food source, changes in the calcification rate, Rayleigh fractionation or changing oxygen conditions. While our measurements provide an interesting insight into the calcification process of this unusual foraminifer, these data also indicate that the geochemistry of this parasitic foraminifer is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of paleoenvironmental conditions using Sr/Ca, Mn/Ca, δ18O or δ13C unless the host organism is known and its geochemical composition can be accounted for.