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Despite mounting evidence of the anthropogenic influence on the Earth's climate, underlying mechanisms of climate change often remain elusive. The investigation of periods of rapid climate change from geological archives may provide crucial information about magnitude, duration, teleconnections of and regional responses to global and hemispheric scale climate perturbations. Thus, paleoclimate reconstructions may help in mitigating and adapting to the challenges of the coming decades. The '8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event' has previously been proposed as a possible analogue for the future climatic scenario of a reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The catastrophic drainage of the Laurentide meltwater lakes through the Hudson Bay and into the Labrador Sea, that occurred ca. 8.47 kyr B.P., caused the slowdown of the AMOC around 8.2 kyr B.P.. Subsequently, reduced heat transfer towards Europe triggered a substantial decline in (winter) temperature and pronounced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in many regions of the northern hemisphere, especially the North Atlantic realm and Europe. Among the regions affected by the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event, the Eastern Mediterranean region is of particular interest for both past and future climate developments. Traditionally characterized as a region highly sensitive to variations in the climate systems of the high and low latitudes, abrupt climate changes have the potential to strongly alter atmospheric circulation patterns and thus precipitation distribution in the region that may have severe socioeconomical consequences. The analysis of stable hydrogen (δD) and oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in precipitation is an excellent tool to trace changes in atmospheric circulation. Here, we present a comparative study of δD and δ18O in precipitation from the Eastern Mediterranean region both in a present day scenario and during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event. We analyze the influences of topography, air mass trajectory, climate and seasonality among others the stable isotopic compositions of meteoric waters from the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP), Turkey, in order to create a first-order template which may serve as a reference against which paleoenvironmental proxy data may be more accurately interpreted and tested. Further, we employ a multiproxy approach on the early Holocene peat deposits of the classical site of Tenaghi Philippon (TP), NE Greece, to investigate paleoenvironmental responses to northern hemisphere cooling during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event and aim to determine changes atmospheric circulation from δD of leaf wax n-alkanes (δDwax).
Based on δD and δ18O data from more than 480 surface water samples from the CAP, we characterize moisture sources affecting the net isotopic budget of precipitation, manifesting in a systematic north-south difference in near-sea level moisture compositions. Rainout, induced by the major orographic barriers of the plateau, the Pontic Mountains to the north and the Taurus Mountains to the south, strongly shape the modern patterns of δD and δ18O. Stable isotope data from the semi-arid plateau interior provide clear evidence for an evaporitic regime that drastically affects surface water compositions. Strong evaporative enrichment contrasts rainfall patterns along the plateau margins, in part obfuscating the effects of topography and air mass trajectory.
Consequently, in order to address possible influences of evaporation on δD and δ18O in paleoprecipitation from TP, we analyze n-alkane abundances and distributions along with stable carbon isotope compositions of total organic carbon (δ13CTOC) and palynological data to estimate surface moisture conditions during the early Holocene (ca. 8.7 - 7.5 kyr B.P.) and especially during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event. A period of relatively dry surface conditions from ca. 8.7 to 8.2 kyr B.P., indicated by low values of the 'aquatic index' (Paq ) and by elevated Average Chain Length (ACL) values, in concert with elevated δ13CTOC values, precedes the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event. The event itself is characterized by slightly wetter, more humid conditions, as suggested by an increase in Paq values as well as reduced ACL and δ13CTOC values between ca. 8.2 and 7.9 kyr B.P.. In the upper section of the core, a distinct change in paleohydrology becomes. A steep increase in Paq and a decrease in ACL values as well as variations in δ13CTOC from 7.9 kyr B.P. onwards imply considerably elevated surface moisture levels, likely caused by the increased activity of the karstic system of the surrounding mountains. Collectively, the biomarker proxies presented here, reveal a concise picture of changing moisture conditions at TP that is consistent with palynological data and provide detailed paleoenvironmental information for the analysis of δDwax as a paleoprecipitation proxy. The long-term decline in δDwax values characterizes the lower section of the core until ca. 8.2 kyr B.P.. The 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event itself is connected to two distinct positive hydrogen isotope excursions: a minor shift in δDwax around 8.2 kyr B.P. and a major shift in δDwax between ca. 8.1 and 8.0 kyr B.P.. The upper part of the section shows a progressive trend towards higher δDwax values. With no indication of increased evaporitic conditions at TP during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event, as evident in biomarker proxies and pollen data, we link shifts in δDwax to changes in Mediterranean air mass trajectories supplying precipitation to northeastern Greece, with variations in the relative contributions of northerly derived, D-depleted moisture and southerly-derived, D-enriched moisture. Possible control mechanisms include changes in the influence of the Siberian High and differences in the influence of the African and Asian monsoon circulations on anticyclonic conditions in the Mediterranean region as well as regional inflow of moist air from the Aegean Sea.
The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.
Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change
(2016)
Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.
Evaluation of radiation components in a global freshwater model with station-based observations
(2016)
In many hydrological models, the amount of evapotranspired water is calculated using the potential evapotranspiration (PET) approach. The main driver of several PET approaches is net radiation, whose downward components are usually obtained from meteorological input data, whereas the upward components are calculated by the model itself. Thus, uncertainties can be large due to both the input data and model assumptions. In this study, we compare the radiation components of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model, driven by two meteorological input datasets and two radiation setups from ERA-Interim reanalysis. We assess the performance with respect to monthly observations provided by the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). The assessment is done for the global land area and specifically for energy/water limited regions. The results indicate that there is no optimal radiation input throughout the model variants, but standard meteorological input datasets perform better than those directly obtained by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the key variable net radiation. The low number of observations for some radiation components, as well as the scale mismatch between station observations and 0.5° × 0.5° grid cell size, limits the assessment.
Binary nucleation of sulphuric acid-water particles is expected to be an important process in the free troposphere at low temperatures. SAWNUC (Sulphuric Acid Water Nucleation) is a model of binary nucleation that is based on laboratory measurements of the binding energies of sulphuric acid and water in charged and neutral clusters. Predictions of SAWNUC are compared for the first time comprehensively with experimental binary nucleation data from the CLOUD chamber at European Organization for Nuclear Research. The experimental measurements span a temperature range of 208–292 K, sulphuric acid concentrations from 1·106 to 1·109 cm−3, and distinguish between ion-induced and neutral nucleation. Good agreement, within a factor of 5, is found between the experimental and modeled formation rates for ion-induced nucleation at 278 K and below and for neutral nucleation at 208 and 223 K. Differences at warm temperatures are attributed to ammonia contamination which was indicated by the presence of ammonia-sulphuric acid clusters, detected by an Atmospheric Pressure Interface Time of Flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. APi-TOF measurements of the sulphuric acid ion cluster distributions (math formula with i = 0, 1, ..., 10) show qualitative agreement with the SAWNUC ion cluster distributions. Remaining differences between the measured and modeled distributions are most likely due to fragmentation in the APi-TOF. The CLOUD results are in good agreement with previously measured cluster binding energies and show the SAWNUC model to be a good representation of ion-induced and neutral binary nucleation of sulphuric acid-water clusters in the middle and upper troposphere.
Chemical reduction-oxidation mechanisms within mantle rocks link to the terrestrial carbon cycle by influencing the depth at which magmas can form, their composition, and ultimately the chemistry of gases released into the atmosphere. The oxidation state of the uppermost mantle has been widely accepted to be unchanged over the past 3800 m.y., based on the abundance of redox-sensitive elements in greenstone belt–associated samples of different ages. However, the redox signal in those rocks may have been obscured by their complex origins and emplacement on continental margins. In contrast, the source and processes occurring during decompression melting at spreading ridges are relatively well constrained. We retrieve primary redox conditions from metamorphosed mid-oceanic ridge basalts (MORBs) and picrites of various ages (ca. 3000–550 Ma), using V/Sc as a broad redox proxy. Average V/Sc values for Proterozoic suites (7.0 ± 1.4, 2σ, n = 6) are similar to those of modern MORB (6.8 ± 1.6), whereas Archean suites have lower V/Sc (5.2 ± 0.4, n = 5). The lower Archean V/Sc is interpreted to reflect both deeper melt extraction from the uppermost mantle, which becomes more reduced with depth, and an intrinsically lower redox state. The pressure-corrected oxygen fugacity (expressed relative to the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer, ΔFMQ, at 1 GPa) of Archean sample suites (ΔFMQ –1.19 ± 0.33, 2σ) is significantly lower than that of post-Archean sample suites, including MORB (ΔFMQ –0.26 ± 0.44). Our results imply that the reducing Archean atmosphere was in equilibrium with Earth’s mantle, and further suggest that magmatic gases crossed the threshold that allowed a build-up in atmospheric O2 levels ca. 3000 Ma, accompanied by the first “whiffs” of oxygen in sediments of that age.
Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Untersuchung der stratosphärischen Meridionalzirkulation mit Hilfe von chemisch aktiven Spurengasen. Diese motiviert sich durch die Tatsache, dass der Klimawandel neben den viel erforschten Auswirkungen auf die Troposphäre, auch Reaktionen in der Stratosphäre zur Folge hat, welche bisher weit weniger tiefgehend untersucht wurden. Das macht die Stratosphäre zu einem aktuellen und frequentierten Forschungsgebiet der experimentellen und theoretischen Meteorologie. Neben vereinzelten hochaufgelösten in-situ Messungen und globalen Satellitendaten sind es hier vor allem globale numerische Klima-Chemiemodelle, die für Analysen genutzt werden. Für diese Arbeit wurden Daten des EMAC-Modells (engl.: ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) ausgwertet, welche im Rahmen der ESCiMo (engl.: Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) Initiative vom MESSy-Konsortium (engl.: Modular Earth Submodel System) erstellt wurden. Die Zielsetzung dieser Arbeit war, ob sich etwaige Änderungen des stratosphärischen Transports anhand von modellierten, chemisch aktiven, idealisierten Spurengasen feststellen lassen. Idealisiert bedeutet hierbei, dass diese Gase ein konstantes Mischungsverhältnis am Erdboden aufweisen und den identischen chemischen Prozessen unterliegen wie die realistischen Tracer. Dies hat zur Folge, dass diese Spurengase somit nicht in das Strahlungsbudget des Modells rückkoppeln und ihre Verteilung nicht durch zeitliche troposphärische Trends beeinflusst wird. Zur Analyse des stratosphärischen Transports wurden die Differenzen der monatlich gemittelten Mischungsverhältnisse zweier Zeitpunkte der verschiedenen Substanzen im Vertikalprofil betrachtet und ausgewertet, wobei hier die photolytische Lebenszeit und die Zeitskala des Transports zu berücksichtigen war. Um die Saisonalität von Transport und Chemie zu berücksichtigen, wurden dazu die Monate März, Juni, September und Dezember analysiert.
Die Resultate zeigten, dass chemisch aktive Substanzen in der Tat geeignet sind Änderungen in der Dynamik festzustellen. So stellte sich heraus, dass mit einer allgemeinen Intensivierung der stratosphärischen Meridionalzirkulation im kommenden Jahrhundert gerechnet werden kann, wobei hiervon besonders die untere Stratosphäre betroffen ist. Eine Differenzierung welche Komponente der Zirkulation (Residualtransport oder bidirektionale quasi-horizontale Mischung) hierbei von übergeordneter Bedeutung ist, konnte nicht spezifiziert werden. Um abzuschätzen, ob sich die Änderung der Zirkulation durch Änderungen in den Mischungsverhältnissen von chemisch aktiven Substanzen mit Hilfe von direkten Messungen nachweisen lässt, wurde die atmosphärische Variabilität des Modells bestimmt und mit den Veränderungen dieser Mischungsverhältnisse verglichen. Es zeigte sich, dass diese modellierte atmosphärische Variabilität zum Teil deutlich größer war, als die Differenzen der Mischungsverhältnisse und so ohne eine Vielzahl von in-situ Messungen keine eindeutige Aussage zulassen. Um eine statistisch valide Aussage treffen zu können, müssen daher mehrere Messreihen innerhalb eines Monats durchgeführt werden. Zudem stellte sich heraus, dass der Monat Juni der bestmögliche Messzeitraum ist, da hier die natürliche Variabilität am geringsten ist. Zuletzt wurden die Spurengase mit vergleichsweise kleiner chemischer Lebenszeit auf normierten N2O-Isoplethen untersucht und die Verschiebung dieser Kurve zwischen den zwei Zeitpunkten analysiert. Die so gewonnenen Resultate ließen den Schluss zu, dass sich auf diese Weise die atmosphärische Variabilität reduzieren lässt und bei Nutzung mit experimentellen Daten eine zu den Tracer-Differenzen konsistente Aussage zulässt. So bestärkte diese Methode die These, dass sich der stratosphärische Transport innerhalb des 21. Jahrhunderts wahrscheinlich verstärken wird.
Background: Replicate population pairs that diverge in response to similar selective regimes allow for an investigation of (a) whether phenotypic traits diverge in a similar and predictable fashion, (b) whether there is gradual variation in phenotypic divergence reflecting variation in the strength of natural selection among populations, (c) whether the extent of this divergence is correlated between multiple character suites (i.e., concerted evolution), and (d) whether gradual variation in phenotypic divergence predicts the degree of reproductive isolation, pointing towards a role for adaptation as a driver of (ecological) speciation. Here, we use poeciliid fishes of the genera Gambusia and Poecilia that have repeatedly evolved extremophile lineages able to tolerate high and sustained levels of toxic hydrogen sulfide (H2S) to answer these questions.
Results: We investigated evolutionary divergence in response to H2S in Gambusia spp. (and to a lesser extent Poecilia spp.) using a multivariate approach considering the interplay of life history, body shape, and population genetics (nuclear miscrosatellites to infer population genetic differentiation as a proxy for reproductive isolation). We uncovered both shared and unique patterns of evolution: most extremophile Gambusia predictably evolved larger heads and offspring size, matching a priori predictions for adaptation to sulfidic waters, while variation in adult life histories was idiosyncratic. When investigating patterns for both genera (Gambusia and Poecilia), we found that divergence in offspring-related life histories and body shape were positively correlated across populations, but evidence for individual-level associations between the two character suites was limited, suggesting that genetic linkage, developmental interdependencies, or pleiotropic effects do not explain patterns of concerted evolution. We further found that phenotypic divergence was positively correlated with both environmental H2S-concentration and neutral genetic differentiation (a proxy for gene flow).
Conclusions: Our results suggest that higher toxicity exerts stronger selection, and that divergent selection appears to constrain gene flow, supporting a scenario of ecological speciation. Nonetheless, progress toward ecological speciation was variable, partially reflecting variation in the strength of divergent selection, highlighting the complexity of selective regimes even in natural systems that are seemingly governed by a single, strong selective agent.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know the methodological uncertainties in the water resources estimates. The study presented here quantifies effects of the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological variables on water balance components at the global, continental and grid cell scale by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISI-MIP 2.1) with five state-of-the-art climate forcing input data-sets. While global precipitation over land during 1971–2000 varies between 103 500 and 111 000 km3 yr−1, global river discharge varies between 39 200 and 42 200 km3 yr−1. Temporal trends of global wa- ter balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing (except human water abstractions), and there is a need for temporal homogenization of climate forcings (in particular WFD/WFDEI). On about 10–20 % of the global land area, change of river discharge between two consecutive 30 year periods was driven more strongly by changes of human water use including dam construction than by changes in precipitation. This number increases towards the end of the 20th century due to intensified human water use and dam construction. The calibration approach of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated river discharge significantly. Different homgeneous climate forcings lead to a variation of Q of only 1.6 % for the 54 % of global land area that are constrained by discharge observations, while estimated renewable water resources in the remaining uncalibrated regions vary by 18.5 %. Uncertainties are especially high in Southeast Asia where Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data availability is very sparse. By sharing already available discharge data, or installing new streamflow gauging stations in such regions, water balance uncertainties could be reduced which would lead to an improved assessment of the world’s water resources.
Ice nucleating particles over the Eastern Mediterranean measured by unmanned aircraft systems
(2016)
During an intensive field campaign on aerosol, clouds and ice nucleation in the Eastern Mediterranean in April 2016, we have measured the abundance of ice nucleating particles (INP) in the lower troposphere from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). Aerosol samples were collected by miniaturized electrostatic precipitators onboard the UAS at altitudes up to 2.5 km. The number of INP in these samples, which are active in the deposition and condensation modes at temperatures from −20 to −30 ◦C, were analyzed immediately after collection on site using the ice nucleus counter FRIDGE. During the one month campaign we encountered a series of Saharan dust plumes that traveled at several kilometers altitude. Here we present INP data from 42 individual flights, together with aerosol number concentrations, observations of lidar backscattering, dust concentrations derived by the dust transport model DREAM (Dust Regional Atmospheric Model), and results from scanning electron microscopy. The effect of the dust plumes is reflected by the coincidence of INP with the particulate mass (PM), the lidar signal and with the predicted dust mass of the model. This suggests that mineral dust or a constituent related to dust was a major contributor to the ice nucleating properties of the aerosol. Peak concentrations of above 100 INP std.l -1 were measured at −30 ◦C. The INP concentration in elevated plumes was on average a factor of 10 higher than at ground level. Since desert dust is transported for long distances over wide areas of the globe predominantly at several km altitude we conclude that INP measurements at ground level may be of limited significance for the situation at the level of cloud formation.