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"Nicht-Ereignisse", Lebensenttäuschungen aufgrund des dauerhaften Ausbleibens erwünschter Ereignisse oder des Nicht-Erreichens von bedeutsamen Lebenszielen, können zu existenziellen Krisen führen. Die Autoren haben 40 Personen befragt und an ihrem Beispiel die Bewältigungsprozesse solcher Krisen untersucht, die z.B. durch ungewollte Kinderlosigkeit oder eine ausgebliebene berufliche Karriere ausgelöst worden waren. Dabei fanden sie verschiedene Prozesshilfen: kognitive und emotionale Verarbeitungsprozesse, soziale Unterstützung, Ersatzaktivitäten und pragmatisches Handeln. Alle Befragten berichteten von Entwicklungsgewinnen aufgrund der Krise und ihrer Bewältigung.
Die Zunahme an Gewalttaten, insbesondere durch Kinder und Jugendliche, wird in der öffentlichen und pädagogischen Diskussion weithin beklagt. Zwar zeigen zeitvergleichende Analysen, dass von einer dramatischen Erhöhung der Gewalhandlungen keine Rede sein kann; eher ist die öffentliche Sensibilität für derartige Vorfälle gestiegen. Andererseits gibt es erschreckende Beispiele für besonders brutale Übergriffe, die im öffentlichen Bewusstsein naturgemäß dominieren. Eindeutig zugenommen haben in den letzten Jahren politisch motivierte Gewalttaten, insbesondere mit rechtsextremistischem Hintergrund. Doch unabhängig davon, ob und wo die Zahl der Gewalthandlungen angestiegen ist, beinhaltet jede einzelne Tat einen Angriff auf die Menschenwürde und die politische Kultur und ruft deshalb nach Gegenmaßnahmen.
Temporal changes in the occurrence of extreme events in time series of observed precipitation are investigated. The analysis is based on a European gridded data set and a German station-based data set of recent monthly totals (1896=1899–1995=1998). Two approaches are used. First, values above certain defined thresholds are counted for the first and second halves of the observation period. In the second step time series components, such as trends, are removed to obtain a deeper insight into the causes of the observed changes. As an example, this technique is applied to the time series of the German station Eppenrod. It arises that most of the events concern extreme wet months whose frequency has significantly increased in winter. Whereas on the European scale the other seasons also show this increase, especially in autumn, in Germany an insignificant decrease in the summer and autumn seasons is found. Moreover it is demonstrated that the increase of extreme wet months is reflected in a systematic increase in the variance and the Weibull probability density function parameters, respectively.
The climate system can be regarded as a dynamic nonlinear system. Thus, traditional linear statistical methods fail to model the nonlinearities of such a system. These nonlinearities render it necessary to find alternative statistical techniques. Since artificial neural network models (NNM) represent such a nonlinear statistical method their use in analyzing the climate system has been studied for a couple of years now. Most authors use the standard Backpropagation Network (BPN) for their investigations, although this specific model architecture carries a certain risk of over-/underfitting. Here we use the so called Cauchy Machine (CM) with an implemented Fast Simulated Annealing schedule (FSA) (Szu, 1986) for the purpose of attributing and detecting anthropogenic climate change instead. Under certain conditions the CM-FSA guarantees to find the global minimum of a yet undefined cost function (Geman and Geman, 1986). In addition to potential anthropogenic influences on climate (greenhouse gases (GHG), sulphur dioxide (SO2)) natural influences on near surface air temperature (variations of solar activity, explosive volcanism and the El Nino = Southern Oscillation phenomenon) serve as model inputs. The simulations are carried out on different spatial scales: global and area weighted averages. In addition, a multiple linear regression analysis serves as a linear reference. It is shown that the adaptive nonlinear CM-FSA algorithm captures the dynamics of the climate system to a great extent. However, free parameters of this specific network architecture have to be optimized subjectively. The quality of the simulations obtained by the CM-FSA algorithm exceeds the results of a multiple linear regression model; the simulation quality on the global scale amounts up to 81% explained variance. Furthermore the combined anthropogenic effect corresponds to the observed increase in temperature Jones et al. (1994), updated by Jones (1999a), for the examined period 1856–1998 on all investigated scales. In accordance to recent findings of physical climate models, the CM-FSA succeeds with the detection of anthropogenic induced climate change on a high significance level. Thus, the CMFSA algorithm can be regarded as a suitable nonlinear statistical tool for modeling and diagnosing the climate system.
Observed global and European spatiotemporal related fields of surface air temperature, mean-sea-level pressure and precipitation are analyzed statistically with respect to their response to external forcing factors such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases, anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, solar variations and explosive volcanism, and known internal climate mechanisms such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a first step, a principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to the observed spatiotemporal related fields to obtain spatial patterns with linear independent temporal structure. In a second step, the time series of each of the spatial patterns is subject to a stepwise regression analysis in order to separate it into signals of the external forcing factors and internal climate mechanisms as listed above as well as the residuals. Finally a back-transformation leads to the spatiotemporally related patterns of all these signals being intercompared. Two kinds of significance tests are applied to the anthropogenic signals. First, it is tested whether the anthropogenic signal is significant compared with the complete residual variance including natural variability. This test answers the question whether a significant anthropogenic climate change is visible in the observed data. As a second test the anthropogenic signal is tested with respect to the climate noise component only. This test answers the question whether the anthropogenic signal is significant among others in the observed data. Using both tests, regions can be specified where the anthropogenic influence is visible (second test) and regions where the anthropogenic influence has already significantly changed climate (first test).
Der Magnetstein - Wozu braucht es Materialien zum Sachunterricht : Ein Gespräch mit Horst Rumpf
(2003)
Dem Leser einer Reihe von Veröffentlichungen zur Didaktik des Sachunterrichts fällt auf, dass es bei aller Vielzahl von Differenzen und Differenzierungen zu didaktischen und pädagogischen Fragen so etwas wie eine - mehr implizite als explizite - Übereinstimmung in der Konstitution des Gegenstandes "Sache" zu geben scheint. Die "Sache" ist danach das zu Erkennende; der Sachunterricht soll entsprechend den Schüler in die Lage versetzen, zu erkennen, was gegeben ist. Aus einer jüngeren erkenntnistheoretischen Sicht lässt sich die Haltbarkeit dieser Grundannahme bezweifeln. Im Durchgang durch einige Konzepte zur Didaktik des Sachunterrichts soll dieser Zweifel begründet werden.
First results on the production of Xi- and Anti-xi hyperons in Pb+Pb interactions at 40 A GeV are presented. The Anti-xi/Xi- ratio at midrapidity is studied as a function of collision centrality. The ratio shows no significant centrality dependence within statistical errors; it ranges from 0.07 to 0.15. The Anti-xi/Xi- ratio for central Pb+Pb collisions increases strongly with the collision energy.
Englische Fassung: Societal Constitutionalism: Alternatives to State-centred Constitutional theory? ("Storrs Lectures 2003/04" Yale Law School) In: Christian Joerges, Inge-Johanne Sand und Gunther Teubner (Hg.) Constitutionalism and Transnational Governance. Hart, Oxford 2004, 3-28. Und in: Ius et Lex 2004, S.31-50. Französische Fassung: Constitutionalisme sociétal et globalisation: Alternatives à la théorie constitutionelle centrée sur l'État. Themis 2005 (im Erscheinen) Italienische Fassung: Costituzionalismo societario: alternative alla teoria costituzionale stato-centrica. In: Gunther Teubner, Costituzionalismo societario. Armando, Roma 2005 (im Erscheinen). Spanische Fassung: Globalización y constitucionalismo social: alternativas a la teoría constitucionalista centrada en el Estado". In: Carlos Gómez-Jara Díez (Hg.), Teoría de sistemas y Derecho penal: Fundamentos y posibilidades de aplicación. Granada: Comares, 2005 (im Erscheinen) und in: Cancio Meliá und Bacigalupo Saggese (Hg.) Derecho penal y política transnacional. Barcelona: Atelier, 2005 (in Erscheinen)und in: Gunther Teubner, El Derecho como sistema autopoiético de la sociedad global, herausgegeben von Carlos Gómez-Jara Diez. Bogotá: Universidad Externado de Colombia, 2005 (im Erscheinen) und Lima: ARA Editores, 2005 (im Erscheinen) Polnische Fassung: Konstytucjonalizm spoleczny: Alternatywy dla teorii konstitucyjnej nakierowanej na panstwo. Ius et Lex 3, 2004, S.5-27.
This paper is focused on the coordination of order and production policy between buyers and suppliers in supply chains. When a buyer and a supplier of an item work independently, the buyer will place orders based on his economic order quantity (EOQ). However, the buyer s EOQ may not lead to an optimal policy for the supplier. It can be shown that a cooperative batching policy can reduce total cost significantly. Should the buyer have the more powerful position to enforce his EOQ on the supplier, then no incentive exists for him to deviate from his EOQ in order to choose a cooperative batching policy. To provide an incentive to order in quantities suitable to the supplier, the supplier could offer a side payment. One critical assumption made throughout in the literature dealing with incentive schemes to influence buyer s ordering policy is that the supplier has complete information regarding buyer s cost structure. However, this assumption is far from realistic. As a consequence, the buyer has no incentive to report truthfully on his cost structure. Moreover there is an incentive to overstate the total relevant cost in order to obtain as high a side payment as possible. This paper provides a bargaining model with asymmetric information about the buyer s cost structure assuming that the buyer has the bargaining power to enforce his EOQ on the supplier in case of a break-down in negotiations. An algorithm for the determination of an optimal set of contracts which are specifically designed for different cost structures of the buyer, assumed by the supplier, will be presented. This algorithm was implemented in a software application, that supports the supplier in determining the optimal set of contracts.
Die zunehmende Monopolisierung auf dem Markt für Informationsressourcen im akademischen Sektor führte in den vergangenen Jahren zu einer verstärkten Bildung von Bibliothekskonsortien auf der Abnehmerseite, die einen Gegenpol in Form einer Einkaufsgenossenschaft darstellen sollten [McCa02]. Diese Tendenzen lassen sich in verschiedenen Ländern wie etwa in Deutschland, England, der Schweiz und der Niederlande beobachten [Okerso]. In den USA sind Konsortien eher selten zu finden; das größte Konsortium ist hier OHIO-Link (http://www.lib.ohio-state.edu/). In Deutschland richten sich die meisten Konsortien wegen der föderalen Finanzierungsstrukturen regional aus; überregionale bzw. deutschlandweite Konsortien sind derzeit noch selten. Ein Zusammenschluss auf thematischer Grundlage findet derzeit so gut wie gar nicht statt, vielmehr werden möglichst viele Bibliotheken in Konsortien unabhängig von den an den jeweiligen Standorten betriebenen Forschungsschwerpunkten eingebunden [AnDe02]....
Introduction: This open label, multicentre study was conducted to assess the times to offset of the pharmacodynamic effects and the safety of remifentanil in patients with varying degrees of renal impairment requiring intensive care.
Methods: A total of 40 patients, who were aged 18 years or older and had normal/mildly impaired renal function (estimated creatinine clearance ≥ 50 ml/min; n = 10) or moderate/severe renal impairment (estimated creatinine clearance <50 ml/min; n = 30), were entered into the study. Remifentanil was infused for up to 72 hours (initial rate 6–9 μg/kg per hour), with propofol administered if required, to achieve a target Sedation–Agitation Scale score of 2–4, with no or mild pain.
Results: There was no evidence of increased offset time with increased duration of exposure to remifentanil in either group. The time to offset of the effects of remifentanil (at 8, 24, 48 and 72 hours during scheduled down-titrations of the infusion) were more variable and were statistically significantly longer in the moderate/severe group than in the normal/mild group at 24 hours and 72 hours. These observed differences were not clinically significant (the difference in mean offset at 72 hours was only 16.5 min). Propofol consumption was lower with the remifentanil based technique than with hypnotic based sedative techniques. There were no statistically significant differences between the renal function groups in the incidence of adverse events, and no deaths were attributable to remifentanil use.
Conclusion: Remifentanil was well tolerated, and the offset of pharmacodynamic effects was not prolonged either as a result of renal dysfunction or prolonged infusion up to 72 hours.
The study of organisms with restricted dispersal abilities and presence in the fossil record is particularly adequate to understand the impact of climate changes on the distribution and genetic structure of species. Trochoidea geyeri (Soós 1926) is a land snail restricted to a patchy, insular distribution in Germany and France. Fossil evidence suggests that current populations of T. geyeri are relicts of a much more widespread distribution during more favourable climatic periods in the Pleistocene. Results: Phylogeographic analysis of the mitochondrial 16S rDNA and nuclear ITS-1 sequence variation was used to infer the history of the remnant populations of T. geyeri. Nested clade analysis for both loci suggested that the origin of the species is in the Provence from where it expanded its range first to Southwest France and subsequently from there to Germany. Estimated divergence times predating the last glacial maximum between 25–17 ka implied that the colonization of the northern part of the current species range occurred during the Pleistocene. Conclusion: We conclude that T. geyeri could quite successfully persist in cryptic refugia during major climatic changes in the past, despite of a restricted capacity of individuals to actively avoid unfavourable conditions.
We present a method for the construction of a Krein space completion for spaces of test functions, equipped with an indefinite inner product induced by a kernel which is more singular than a distribution of finite order. This generalizes a regularization method for infrared singularities in quantum field theory, introduced by G. Morchio and F. Strocchi, to the case of singularites of infinite order. We give conditions for the possibility of this procedure in terms of local differential operators and the Gelfand-Shilov test function spaces, as well as an abstract sufficient condition. As a model case we construct a maximally positive definite state space for the Heisenberg algebra in the presence of an infinite infrared singularity. See the corresponding paper: Schmidt, Andreas U.: "Mathematical Problems of Gauge Quantum Field Theory: A Survey of the Schwinger Model" and the presentation "Infinite Infrared Regularization in Krein Spaces"