From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) — a climatic niche modeling approach
- In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium-sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence-absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence.
Author: | Sarah CunzeORCiDGND, Sven KlimpelORCiDGND |
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URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-862326 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9141 |
ISSN: | 2045-7758 |
Parent Title (English): | Ecology and evolution |
Publisher: | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. |
Place of publication: | [Erscheinungsort nicht ermittelbar] |
Document Type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of Publication (online): | 2022/07/24 |
Date of first Publication: | 2022/07/24 |
Publishing Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
Release Date: | 2024/07/17 |
Tag: | biomod; climate change-induced range shifts; ensemble forecasting consensus model; parasites; predator pressure; species distribution modeling |
Volume: | 12 |
Issue: | 7, art. e9141 |
Article Number: | e9141 |
Page Number: | 12 |
First Page: | 1 |
Last Page: | 12 |
Note: | Gefördert durch den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der Goethe-Universität. |
Note: | Funding: Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt ; DBU 35524/01-43 |
Note: | Funding: Uniscientia Foundation ; P 180-2021 |
Note: | Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. |
HeBIS-PPN: | 52085442X |
Institutes: | Biowissenschaften / Institut für Ökologie, Evolution und Diversität |
Fachübergreifende Einrichtungen / Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F) | |
Dewey Decimal Classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 59 Tiere (Zoologie) / 590 Tiere (Zoologie) |
Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
Open-Access-Publikationsfonds: | Biowissenschaften |
Licence (German): | ![]() |