Does austerity pay off?

  • Policy makers often implement austerity measures when the sustainability of public finances is in doubt and, hence, sovereign yield spreads are high. Is austerity successful in bringing about a reduction in yield spreads? We employ a new panel data set which contains sovereign yield spreads for 31 emerging and advanced economies and estimate the effects of cuts of government consumption on yield spreads and economic activity. The conditions under which austerity takes place are crucial. During times of fiscal stress, spreads rise in response to the spending cuts, at least in the short-run. In contrast, austerity pays off, if conditions are more benign.

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Author:Benjamin Born, Gernot J. Müller, Johannes Pfeifer
Parent Title (English):SAFE working paper series ; No. 77
Series (Serial Number):SAFE working paper (77)
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2014
Year of first Publication:2014
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2014/12/17
Tag:austerity; confidence; fiscal policy; fiscal stress; local projections; panel VAR; sovereign risk; yield spreads
Issue:December 1, 2014
Page Number:54
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / House of Finance (HoF)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
JEL-Classification:C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C3 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models / C32 Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (Updated!)
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht