Designing a rational sanctioning strategy

  • This policy note summarizes our assessment of financial sanctions against Russia. We see an increase in sanctions severity starting from (1) the widely discussed SWIFT exclusions, followed by (2) blocking of correspondent banking relationships with Russian banks, including the Central Bank, alongside secondary sanctions, and (3) a full blacklisting of the ‘real’ export-import flows underlying the financial transactions. We assess option (1) as being less impactful than often believed yet sending a strong signal of EU unity; option (2) as an effective way to isolate the Russian banking system, particularly if secondary sanctions are in place, to avoid workarounds. Option (3) represents possibly the most effective way to apply economic and financial pressure, interrupting trade relationships.

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Author:Ignazio AngeloniORCiDGND, Christopher DaaseGND, Nicole DeitelhoffORCiDGND, Matthias Goldmann, Jan Pieter KrahnenORCiDGND, Stefan Kroll, Carl-Georg LuftGND, Andreas NölkeORCiDGND, Anton Peez, Loriana PelizzonORCiDGND
Parent Title (English):SAFE policy letter ; 95
Series (Serial Number):SAFE policy letter (95)
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2022
Year of first Publication:2022
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2022/03/01
Tag:Russian Sanction; SWIFT
Issue:February 2022
Page Number:4
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / House of Finance (HoF)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht