Government bond rates and interest expenditures of large euro area member states: a scenario analysis

  • Veronika Grimm, Lukas Nöh, and Volker Wieland assess the possible development of government interest expenditures as a share of GDP for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Until 2021, these and other member states could anticipate a further reduction of interest expenditure in the future. This outlook has changed considerably with the recent surge in inflation and government bond rates. Nevertheless, under reasonable assumptions current yield curves still imply that interest expenditure relative to GDP can be stabilized at the current level. The authors also review the implications of a further upward shift in the yield curves of 1 or 2 percentage points. These implications suggest significant medium-term risks for highly indebted member states with interest expenditure approaching or exceeding levels last observed on the eve of the euro area debt crisis. In light of these risks, governments of euro area member states should take substantive action to achieve a sustained decline in debt-to-GDP ratios towards safer levels. They bear the responsibility for making sure that government finances can weather the higher interest rates which are required to achieve price stability in the euro area.

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Author:Veronika GrimmORCiDGND, Lukas NöhGND, Volker WielandORCiDGND
Parent Title (English):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 171
Series (Serial Number):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (171)
Publisher:Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2022
Year of first Publication:2022
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2022/07/21
Issue:July 8, 2022
Page Number:19
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht