Macroeconomic model comparisons and forecast competition

  • This contribution draws on two recent publications in which the macroeconomic model data base (www.macromodelbase.com) is employed for model comparisons. The comparative approach is used to base policy analysis on a systematic evaluation of the different implications that a certain economic policy can have when submitted to different modeling approaches. In this manner, policy recommendations are more robust to modeling uncertainty. By extending the comparative approach to forecasting, the authors investigate the accuracy of different forecasting models and obtain more reliable mean forecasts.

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Metadaten
Author:Volker WielandORCiDGND, Maik WoltersORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-333411
URL:http://safe-frankfurt.de/de/policy-center/publikationen/details/article/macroeconomic-model-comparisons-and-forecast-competition.html
Parent Title (English):Policy Platform - Policy Letter
Publisher:SAFE
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Report
Language:English
Year of Completion:2012
Year of first Publication:2012
Publishing Institution:Universit├Ątsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2014/06/17
Tag:financial models; forecasting; macroeconomic models
Page Number:7
Last Page:6
HeBIS-PPN:342749412
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / House of Finance (HoF)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Sammlungen:Universit├Ątspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht