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The discussion about the interplay between digital technologies and the process of globalization is often focused around the following question: who has access to global information networks and who benefits from digital communication technologies? These are essential questions and it can hardly be denied that they confront us with a series of political and ethical questions. However, we also need to recognize the ongoing digitalization of the globe, a process where more and more people are put on various kinds of maps...
This paper investigates how biases in macroeconomic forecasts are associated with economic surprises and market responses across asset classes around US data announcements. We find that the skewness of the distribution of economic forecasts is a strong predictor of economic surprises, suggesting that forecasters behave strategically (rational bias) and possess private information. Our results also show that consensus forecasts of US macroeconomic releases embed anchoring. Under these conditions, both economic surprises and the returns of assets that are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions are predictable. Our findings indicate that local equities and bond markets are more predictable than foreign markets, currencies and commodities. Economic surprises are found to link to asset returns very distinctively through the stages of the economic cycle, whereas they strongly depend on economic releases being inflation- or growth-related. Yet, when forecasters fail to correctly forecast the direction of economic surprises, regret becomes a relevant cognitive bias to explain asset price responses. We find that the behavioral and rational biases encountered in US economic forecasting also exists in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan, albeit, to a lesser extent.
In this study, a portable electronic nose (E-nose) prototype is developed using metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) sensors to detect odors of different wines. Odor detection facilitates the distinction of wines with different properties, including areas of production, vintage years, fermentation processes, and varietals. Four popular machine learning algorithms—extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and backpropagation neural network (BPNN)—were used to build identification models for different classification tasks. Experimental results show that BPNN achieved the best performance, with accuracies of 94% and 92.5% in identifying production areas and varietals, respectively; and SVM achieved the best performance in identifying vintages and fermentation processes, with accuracies of 67.3% and 60.5%, respectively. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed E-nose, which could be used to distinguish different wines based on their properties following selection of an optimal algorithm.
With the ongoing loss of global biodiversity, long-term recordings of species distribution patterns are increasingly becoming important to investigate the causes and consequences for their change. Therefore, the digitization of scientific literature, both modern and historical, has been attracting growing attention in recent years. To meet this growing demand the Specialised Information Service for Biodiversity Research (BIOfid) was launched in 2017 with the aim of increasing the availability and accessibility of biodiversity information. Closely tied to the research community the interdisciplinary BIOfid team is digitizing data sources of biodiversity related research and provides a modern and professional infrastructure for hosting and sharing them. As a pilot project, German publications on the distribution and ecology of vascular plants, birds, moths and butterflies covering the past 250 years are prioritized. Large parts of the text corpus defined in accordance with the needs of the relevant German research community have already been transferred to a machine-readable format and will be publicly accessible soon. Software tools for text mining, semantic annotation and analysis with respect to the current trends in machine learning are developed to maximize bioscientific data output through user-specific queries that can be created via the BIOfid web portal (https://www.biofid.de/). To boost knowledge discovery, specific ontologies focusing on morphological traits and taxonomy are being prepared and will continuously be extended to keep up with an ever-expanding volume of literature sources.
Advanced machine learning has achieved extraordinary success in recent years. “Active” operational risk beyond ex post analysis of measured-data machine learning could provide help beyond the regime of traditional statistical analysis when it comes to the “known unknown” or even the “unknown unknown.” While machine learning has been tested successfully in the regime of the “known,” heuristics typically provide better results for an active operational risk management (in the sense of forecasting). However, precursors in existing data can open a chance for machine learning to provide early warnings even for the regime of the “unknown unknown.”