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Irrigation is the most important water use sector accounting for about 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals and 90% of consumptive water uses. While the extent of irrigation and related water uses are reported in statistical databases or estimated by model simulations, information on the source of irrigation water is scarce and very scattered. Here we present a new global inventory on the extent of areas irrigated with groundwater, surface water or non-conventional sources, and we determine the related consumptive water uses. The inventory provides data for 15 038 national and sub-national administrative units. Irrigated area was provided by census-based statistics from international and national organizations. A global model was then applied to simulate consumptive water uses for irrigation by water source. Globally, area equipped for irrigation is currently about 301 million ha of which 38% are equipped for irrigation with groundwater. Total consumptive groundwater use for irrigation is estimated as 545 km3 yr−1, or 43% of the total consumptive irrigation water use of 1277 km3 yr−1. The countries with the largest extent of areas equipped for irrigation with groundwater, in absolute terms, are India (39 million ha), China (19 million ha) and the USA (17 million ha). Groundwater use in irrigation is increasing both in absolute terms and in percentage of total irrigation, leading in places to concentrations of users exploiting groundwater storage at rates above groundwater recharge. Despite the uncertainties associated with statistical data available to track patterns and growth of groundwater use for irrigation, the inventory presented here is a major step towards a more informed assessment of agricultural water use and its consequences for the global water cycle.
This study presents a global scale analysis of cropping intensity, crop duration and fallow land extent computed by using the global dataset on monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas MIRCA2000. MIRCA2000 was mainly derived from census data and crop calendars from literature. Global cropland extent was 16 million km2 around the year 2000 of which 4.4 million km2 (28%) was fallow, resulting in an average cropping intensity of 0.82 for total cropland extent and of 1.13 when excluding fallow land. The lowest cropping intensities related to total cropland extent were found for Southern Africa (0.45), Central America (0.49) and Middle Africa (0.54), while highest cropping intensities were computed for Eastern Asia (1.04) and Southern Asia (1.0). In remote or arid regions where shifting cultivation is practiced, fallow periods last 3–10 years or even longer. In contrast, crops are harvested two or more times per year in highly populated, often irrigated tropical or subtropical lowlands where multi-cropping systems are common. This indicates that intensification of agricultural land use is a strategy that may be able to significantly improve global food security. There exist large uncertainties regarding extent of cropland, harvested crop area and therefore cropping intensity at larger scales. Satellite imagery and remote sensing techniques provide opportunities for decreasing these uncertainties and to improve the MIRCA2000 inventory.
Long-term average groundwater recharge representing the sustainable groundwater resources is modeled as a 0.5° by 0.5° grid on global scale by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. Due to uncertainties of estimating groundwater recharge, especially in semiarid and arid regions, independent estimates are used for calibrating the model. This work compiled a new set of independent groundwater recharge estimates based on a work of Scanlon et al. (2006). The 59 independent estimates, together with an already existing independent estimates compilation, are used for the evaluation of two WGHM variants; one variant is modeling with an improved more realistically distributed daily precipitation dataset.
The objective of this thesis is the evaluation of the modeled data of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). The analysis of the impact of the new Watch Forcing Data (WFD) precipitation dataset on the modeled groundwater recharge tends to result in lower values in humid and higher values in (semi-)arid regions compared to the WGHM standard variant. Comparing both WGHM variants to the independent estimates compilations, representing (semi-)arid regions, the WGHM variant shows over- and underestimations especially of the low values and the WGHM WFD variant shows a bias toward overestimation especially for values below 4 mm/yr. The analysis of texture, hydrogeology and vegetation/ land cover could not give satisfying explanations for the discrepancies, but derived from the groundwater recharge measurement methods analysis indirect/ localized recharge seems to be a significant factor causing underestimations, as resulted in the comparison of the independent estimates based on Scanlon et al. 2006 with the WGHM variants.
River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecosystem responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate modelsand two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated.
We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases.
Thus, by the 2050s, climate change will have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics much more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reduction. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations.
Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Key words: carrying capacity , cod , hierarchical models , North Atlantic , temperature , uncertainty
Soil biogenic NO emissions (SNOx) play important direct and indirect roles in chemical processes of the troposphere. The most widely applied algorithm to calculate SNOx in global models was published 15 years ago by Yienger and Levy (1995), was based on very few measurements. Since then numerous new measurements have been published, which we used to build up a atabase of field measurements conducted world wide covering the period from 1978 to 2009, including 108 publications with 560 measurements.
Recently, several satellite based top-down approaches, which recalculated the different sources of NOx (fossil fuel, biomass burning, soil and lightning), have shown an underestimation of SNOx by the algorithm of Yienger and Levy (1995). Nevertheless, to our knowledge no general improvements of this algorithm have yet been published.
Here we present major improvements to the algorithm, which should help to optimize the representation of SNOx in atmospheric-chemistry global climate models, without modifying the underlying principal or mathematical equations. The changes include: 1) Using a new up to date land cover map, with twice the number of land cover classes, and using annually varying fertilizer application rates; 2) Adopting the fraction of SNOx induced by fertilizer application based on our database; 3) Switching from soil water column to volumetric soil moisture, to distinguish between the wet and dry state; 4) Tuning the emission factors to reproduce the measured emissions in our database and calculate the emissions based on their mean value. These steps lead us to increased global yearly SNOx, and our total SNOx source ends up being close to one of the top-down approaches. In some geographical regions the new results agree better with the top-down approach, but there are also distinct differences in other regions. This suggests that a ombination of both top-down and bottom-up approaches could be combined in a future attempt to provide an even better calculation of SNOx.
Until now, the NW Indian Ocean was sparsely covered with coral proxy records, and records from the Maldives Archipelago do not exist. The first such coral proxy record from the central Maldives is presented in this study. It originates from a massive Porites lutea (Quoy and Gaimard, 1833) colony that was sampled March 2007 in the lagoon of Rasdhoo Atoll (4°N/ 73°W), which is located in the central Maldives. The record spans a period of 90 yrs and reaches back to 1917 AD with monthly to bimonthly resolution. This study investigates temporal variations of the skeletal stable oxygen (delta18O) and carbon (delta13C) isotopes, the strontium-to-calcium (Sr/Ca), and the annual extension-rates, and their relationship to historical climate variations 1917-2007. Annual extension-rates show an increase over the 20th century, and are correlated with instrumental sea surface temperatures (SST). The interannual variation of the extension-rates within 2.5-4 years is driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The amount of skeletal extension during the summer months is triggered by variations in the strength of the SW monsoon. Interannual and decadal variability in monsoon current activity (18-19 yrs) and rainfall over India are an expression of the summer monsoon strength. This is the reason why a statistical link between coral extension-rates and precipitation over India can be established. This implies that annual extension-rates in corals can be used as a new proxy for Indian monsoon variability on decadal resolution. The delta18O record exhibits the 20th century warming trend that is influenced by the effect of monsoon-induced cooling. delta18O also reveals interannual ENSO triggered variability, which is due to ENSO-forced variations in SST and sea surface salinity (SSS). A decadal variation at 12-14 yrs cannot be linked to SST variations in the NW Indian Ocean, but with decadal variations of SSS. They could be caused by ENSO- forced variations of the monsoon currents during the mature phase of ENSO teleconnections in the Indian Ocean in boreal winter. The Sr/Ca record does not indicate a significant warming, in spite of the observed SST rise at the sampling site. Changes in seawater Sr/Ca cannot be excluded. Nevertheless, interannual ENSO forcing is still evident. Evidence for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is found during 1917-1955. Afterwards, the Sr/Ca data indicate the disappearance of PDO forcing. By the combination of Sr/Ca and delta18O it is possible to detect ~80% of historical El Niño and La Niña events at the sample site. This study confirms the notion that interannual to multi-decadal climate fluctuations in the Pacific play a crucial role for climate variability in the Indian Ocean.
Processes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere (UT), the Tropical Transition Layer (TTL), and the lower stratosphere (LS) are of importance for the global climate, for stratospheric dynamics and air chemistry, and for their influence on the global distribution of water vapour, trace gases and aerosols. In this contribution we present aerosol and trace gas (in-situ) measurements from the tropical UT/LS over Southern Brazil, Northern Australia, and West Africa. The instruments were operated on board of the Russian high altitude research aircraft M-55 "Geophysica" and the DLR Falcon-20 during the campaigns TROCCINOX (Araçatuba, Brazil, February 2005), SCOUT-O3 (Darwin, Australia, December 2005), and SCOUT-AMMA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, August 2006). The data cover submicron particle number densities and volatility from the COndensation PArticle counting System (COPAS), as well as relevant trace gases like N2O, ozone, and CO. We use these trace gas measurements to place the aerosol data into a broader atmospheric context. Also a juxtaposition of the submicron particle data with previous measurements over Costa Rica and other tropical locations between 1999 and 2007 (NASA DC-8 and NASA WB-57F) is provided. The submicron particle number densities, as a function of altitude, were found to be remarkably constant in the tropical UT/LS altitude band for the two decades after 1987. Thus, a parameterisation suitable for models can be extracted from these measurements. Compared to the average levels in the period between 1987 and 2007 a slight increase of particle abundances was found for 2005/2006 at altitudes with potential temperatures, theta, above 430 K. The origins of this increase are unknown except for increases measured during SCOUT-AMMA. Here the eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano in the Caribbean caused elevated particle mixing ratios. The vertical profiles from Northern hemispheric mid-latitudes between 1999 and 2006 also are compact enough to derive a parameterisation. The tropical profiles all show a broad maximum of particle mixing ratios (between theta ~ 340 K and 390 K) which extends from below the TTL to above the thermal tropopause. Thus these particles are a "reservoir" for vertical transport into the stratosphere. The ratio of non-volatile particle number density to total particle number density was also measured by COPAS. The vertical profiles of this ratio have a maximum of 50% above 370 K over Australia and West Africa and a pronounced minimum directly below. Without detailed chemical composition measurements a reason for the increase of non-volatile particle fractions cannot yet be given. However, half of the particles from the tropical "reservoir" contain compounds other than sulphuric acid and water. Correlations of the measured aerosol mixing ratios with N2O and ozone exhibit compact relationships for the tropical data from SCOUT-AMMA, TROCCINOX, and SCOUT-O3. Correlations with CO are more scattered probably because of the connection to different pollution source regions. We provide additional data from the long distance transfer flights to the campaign sites in Brazil, Australia, and West-Africa. These were executed during a time window of 17 months within a period of relative volcanic quiescence. Thus the data represent a "snapshot picture" documenting the status of a significant part of the global UT/LS fine aerosol at low concentration levels 15 years after the last major (i.e., the 1991 Mount Pinatubo) eruption. The corresponding latitudinal distributions of the measured particle number densities are presented in this paper to provide data of the UT/LS background aerosol for modelling purposes.
Two different single particle mass spectrometers were operated in parallel at the Swiss High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) during the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment (CLACE 6) in February and March 2007. During mixed phase cloud events ice crystals from 5–20 micro m were separated from larger ice aggregates, non-activated, interstitial aerosol particles and supercooled droplets using an Ice-Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI). During one cloud period supercooled droplets were additionally sampled and analyzed by changing the Ice-CVI setup. The small ice particles and droplets were evaporated by injection into dry air inside the Ice-CVI. The resulting ice and droplet residues (IR and DR) were analyzed for size and composition by the two single particle mass spectrometers: a custom-built Single Particle Laser-Ablation Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SPLAT) and a commercial Aerosol Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS, TSI Model 3800). During CLACE 6 the SPLAT instrument characterized 355 individual IR that produced a mass spectrum for at least one polarity and the ATOFMS measured 152 IR. The mass spectra were binned in classes, based on the combination of dominating substances, such as mineral dust, sulfate, potassium and elemental carbon or organic material. The derived chemical information from the ice residues is compared to the JFJ ambient aerosol that was sampled while the measurement station was out of clouds (several thousand particles analyzed by SPLAT and ATOFMS) and to the composition of the residues of supercooled cloud droplets (SPLAT: 162 cloud droplet residues analyzed, ATOFMS: 1094). The measurements showed that mineral dust was strongly enhanced in the ice particle residues. Close to all of the SPLAT spectra from ice residues did contain signatures from mineral compounds, albeit connected with varying amounts of soluble compounds. Similarly, close to all of the ATOFMS IR spectra show a mineral or metallic component. Pure sulfate and nitrate containing particles were depleted in the ice residues. Sulfate and nitrate was found to dominate the droplet residues (~90% of the particles). The results from the two different single particle mass spectrometers were generally in agreement. Differences in the results originate from several causes, such as the different wavelength of the desorption and ionisation lasers and different size-dependent particle detection efficiencies.
In situ rainwater harvesting has a long history in arid and semi-arid regions of the world buffering water shortages for human consumption and agriculture. In the context of an Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) in the Cuvelai Basin in northern Namibia, roof top rainwater harvesting is being introduced to a rural community for the irrigation of household scale gardens for the cultivation of horticulture products. This study elaborates how harvested rainwater can be used for garden irrigation in a sustainable manner evaluating ecologic, economic and social implications. Considering local conditions eight cropping scenarios were designed, including different criteria as well as one and two annual planting seasons. These schemes were tested under present climate conditions and under three future climate change scenarios for 2050 with the help of a tank model designed to model monthly tank inflows and outflows. Special attention was laid on risk and uncertainty aspects of varying inter-annual and interseasonal precipitation and future climate change. A framework for the assessment of sustainability was adapted to the purposes of this study and indicators have been developed in order to assess the cropping and irrigation schemes for sustainability.
The study found that with the given tank size of 30 m³, depending on crop scenario, under optimized conditions a garden area of 60 to 90 m³ can be irrigated. The choice of crops highly impacts water use efficiency and economic profitability, compared to the considerably lower impact of amount of annual planting seasons and future climate change. In the case of worsening future climate conditions, adaptation measures need to be taken as especially the economic as well as the environmental situation are expected to exacerbate due to expected decreases in yields and revenues. Already under present conditions however, the economic dimension represents the most limiting factor to sustainability, particularly due to the excessive investment costs of the rainwater harvesting and gardening facility. Nonetheless, rainwater harvesting in combination with gardening can be regarded as successful in securing household nutrition, providing sufficient horticulture products for household consumption or market sale. At the same time with the optimal choice of crops the investment costs can be recovered within the end of the lifespan of the facility.
We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL) in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO2 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow) and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely originated from convective cloud east of the flight. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that in the outflow of a large convective system, deep convection can largely modify chemical composition and aerosol distribution up to the tropical tropopause. Model analysis also shows that, on average, deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area) has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.
Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts „Integrierte Analyse von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen in Fließgewässern“ (INTAFERE) am Institut für Physische Geographie an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt erstellt. In INTAFERE wurde das Gefährdungspotenzial von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen (MOF) für aquatische Ökosysteme und die natürlichen Wasserressourcen in integrierter und partizipativer Art und Weise untersucht. MOF sind chemische Substanzen, die in Alltagsprodukten enthalten sind und durch unterschiedliche Eintragsfade in unbekannten Mengen in Oberflächengewässer eingetragen werden. Problematisch sind aus Umweltgesichtspunkten ihre Eigenschaften: sie besitzen im Wasser eine hohe Mobilität und sind schwer abbaubar. Dies führt zu einer Persistenz über lange Zeiträume. Für einige dieser Substanzen wurde zudem gezeigt, dass sie in sehr geringen Konzentrationen biologisch aktiv sind und für aquatische Ökosysteme eine Gefahr darstellen. In INTAFERE wurden drei zentrale Ziele verfolgt: Charakterisierung des Problemfeldes MOF, Erzeugung von praxisrelevantem Wissen für das Management von MOF und Entwicklung einer Softwareanwendung, die gesellschaftliche Aushandlungsprozesse durch eine transparente Darstellung der Wirkungszusammenhänge im Problemfeld unterstützt. Um einen Beitrag für die Erfüllung der Ziele zu leisten, war es die Aufgabe der Verfasserin, eine Akteursanalyse und -modellierung durchzuführen sowie Zukunftsszenarien im Bereich der MOF zu entwickeln. Dafür existierte keine adäquate Methodik, daher verfolgt die Dissertation zum einen die Entwicklung einer Methodik und zum anderen deren Anwendung im Kontext des Projektes INTAFERE. Da im Forschungsprozess die Durchführung von Analysen, die wissenschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Sichtweise der Problematik sowie die Erarbeitung von praktischen Lösungen im Mittelpunkt standen, wurde eine transdisziplinäre Herangehensweise gewählt. Ziel war es, eine Methodik zu entwerfen, die sowohl eine Entwicklung von Szenarien als auch eine Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen umfasst. Eine Modellierung und Visualisierung von Handlungsentscheidungen ist notwendig, um Strategien für ein Umweltproblem für verschiedene Szenarien zu ermitteln, und damit einen Lernprozess der Stakeholder zu initiieren. Dies wurde mit der transdisziplinären Methode „Akteursbasierte Modellierung“ umgesetzt. Hierbei wurden insbesondere Aspekte der Problemwahrnehmung von Akteuren und deren Darstellung, der partizipativen Szenarienentwicklung sowie der semi-quantitativen Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen berücksichtigt. Die Verfasserin hat mit der semi-quantitativen akteursbasierten Modellierung eine Methode erarbeitet und getestet, die bisher unverbundene Komponenten (wie die Software Dynamic Actor Network Analysis (DANA) und die Szenarienentwicklung) zusammenführt. Um Handlungsentscheidungen unter verschiedenen Szenarien zu modellieren hat die Autorin eine sequentielle Modellierung entwickelt, die mit der Software DANA durchgeführt werden kann. Die dafür notwendige Weiterentwicklung von DANA wurde von Dr. Pieter Bots (TU Delft) umgesetzt. Die akteursbasierte Modellierung läuft in drei methodischen Schritten ab: 1. Modellierung von Akteurs-Sichtweisen in Form von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse, aufbauend auf Ergebnissen von qualitativen, leitfaden-gestützten Expertengesprächen (= Akteursmodellierung), 2. partizipative Szenarienentwicklung mit den Akteuren und 3. Zusammenführung der Ergebnisse der Akteursmodellierung und der Szenarienentwicklung und darauf aufbauend eine sequentielle Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen und deren Auswirkungen auf Schlüsselfaktoren. Im Zuge der Anwendung auf das Problemfeld der MOF wurde für folgende Akteure jeweils ein Wahrnehmungsgraph modelliert: Obere Wasserbehörde, Umweltbundesamt, Umwelt- und Verbraucherschutzorganisationen, Wasserversorger sowie für die Hersteller von verschiedenen MOF, weiterhin für die European Flame Retardants Association und die Weiterverarbeitende Industrie. Das Ergebnis der Szenarienentwicklung waren vier Szenarien: ein Gesundheitsszenario, unter der Annahme von hohen lokalen Umweltstandards durch nachhaltigkeitsorientierte KonsumentInnen, ein Umweltszenario, in dem eine starke Regulierung und nachhaltigkeitsorientierter Konsum Hand in Hand gehen, ein Globalisierungsszenario, in dem Wirtschaftsmacht und preisbewusste KonsumentInnen statt staatliche Regulierung vorherrschen und ein Technikszenario, unter der Annahme, dass Kläranlagen, bedingt durch eine starke Regulierung, aufgerüstet werden. Bei der Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen wurden die Wahrnehmungsgraphen und die vier Szenarien miteinander verknüpft. Pro Substanz wurde ein Modell entwickelt, welches die wichtigsten Systemkomponenten in einer angemessenen Komplexität umfasst und die von den Akteuren gemeinsam getragene Einschätzung der Wirkungsbeziehungen darstellt. Insgesamt wurden 16 Modelle entwickelt. Basierend auf den simulierten Akteurshandlungen wurden relativen Veränderungen der Schlüsselfaktoren Produktion, Import und Leistungsfähigkeit der Kläranlagen für die vier genannten Szenarien berechnet. In Zusammenarbeit mit Pieter Bots konnten algorithmische Beiträge zur Analyse- und Modellierungssoftware DANA getestet und verbessert werden. Da keine vollständige und zugleich leicht verständliche Einführung zu DANA vorlag, wurde für Nutzer im Rahmen dieser Dissertation eine Anleitung verfasst, die die Modellierung von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse sowie alle Schritte der akteursbasierten Modellierung mit DANA erläutert.
Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts „Integrierte Analyse von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen in Fließgewässern“ (INTAFERE) am Institut für Physische Geographie an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt erstellt. In INTAFERE wurde das Gefährdungspotenzial von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen (MOF) für aquatische Ökosysteme und die natürlichen Wasserressourcen in integrierter und partizipativer Art und Weise untersucht. MOF sind chemische Substanzen, die in Alltagsprodukten enthalten sind und durch unterschiedliche Eintragsfade in unbekannten Mengen in Oberflächengewässer eingetragen werden. Problematisch sind aus Umweltgesichtspunkten ihre Eigenschaften: sie besitzen im Wasser eine hohe Mobilität und sind schwer abbaubar. Dies führt zu einer Persistenz über lange Zeiträume. Für einige dieser Substanzen wurde zudem gezeigt, dass sie in sehr geringen Konzentrationen biologisch aktiv sind und für aquatische Ökosysteme eine Gefahr darstellen. In INTAFERE wurden drei zentrale Ziele verfolgt: Charakterisierung des Problemfeldes MOF, Erzeugung von praxisrelevantem Wissen für das Management von MOF und Entwicklung einer Softwareanwendung, die gesellschaftliche Aushandlungsprozesse durch eine transparente Darstellung der Wirkungszusammenhänge im Problemfeld unterstützt. Um einen Beitrag für die Erfüllung der Ziele zu leisten, war es die Aufgabe der Verfasserin, eine Akteursanalyse und -modellierung durchzuführen sowie Zukunftsszenarien im Bereich der MOF zu entwickeln. Dafür existierte keine adäquate Methodik, daher verfolgt die Dissertation zum einen die Entwicklung einer Methodik und zum anderen deren Anwendung im Kontext des Projektes INTAFERE. Da im Forschungsprozess die Durchführung von Analysen, die wissenschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Sichtweise der Problematik sowie die Erarbeitung von praktischen Lösungen im Mittelpunkt standen, wurde eine transdisziplinäre Herangehensweise gewählt. Ziel war es, eine Methodik zu entwerfen, die sowohl eine Entwicklung von Szenarien als auch eine Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen umfasst. Eine Modellierung und Visualisierung von Handlungsentscheidungen ist notwendig, um Strategien für ein Umweltproblem für verschiedene Szenarien zu ermitteln, und damit einen Lernprozess der Stakeholder zu initiieren. Dies wurde mit der transdisziplinären Methode „Akteursbasierte Modellierung“ umgesetzt. Hierbei wurden insbesondere Aspekte der Problemwahrnehmung von Akteuren und deren Darstellung, der partizipativen Szenarienentwicklung sowie der semi-quantitativen Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen berücksichtigt. Die Verfasserin hat mit der semi-quantitativen akteursbasierten Modellierung eine Methode erarbeitet und getestet, die bisher unverbundene Komponenten (wie die Software Dynamic Actor Network Analysis (DANA) und die Szenarienentwicklung) zusammenführt. Um Handlungsentscheidungen unter verschiedenen Szenarien zu modellieren hat die Autorin eine sequentielle Modellierung entwickelt, die mit der Software DANA durchgeführt werden kann. Die dafür notwendige Weiterentwicklung von DANA wurde von Dr. Pieter Bots (TU Delft) umgesetzt. Die akteursbasierte Modellierung läuft in drei methodischen Schritten ab: 1. Modellierung von Akteurs-Sichtweisen in Form von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse, aufbauend auf Ergebnissen von qualitativen, leitfaden-gestützten Expertengesprächen (= Akteursmodellierung), 2. partizipative Szenarienentwicklung mit den Akteuren und 3. Zusammenführung der Ergebnisse der Akteursmodellierung und der Szenarienentwicklung und darauf aufbauend eine sequentielle Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen und deren Auswirkungen auf Schlüsselfaktoren. Im Zuge der Anwendung auf das Problemfeld der MOF wurde für folgende Akteure jeweils ein Wahrnehmungsgraph modelliert: Obere Wasserbehörde, Umweltbundesamt, Umwelt- und Verbraucherschutzorganisationen, Wasserversorger sowie für die Hersteller von verschiedenen MOF, weiterhin für die European Flame Retardants Association und die Weiterverarbeitende Industrie. Das Ergebnis der Szenarienentwicklung waren vier Szenarien: ein Gesundheitsszenario, unter der Annahme von hohen lokalen Umweltstandards durch nachhaltigkeitsorientierte KonsumentInnen, ein Umweltszenario, in dem eine starke Regulierung und nachhaltigkeitsorientierter Konsum Hand in Hand gehen, ein Globalisierungsszenario, in dem Wirtschaftsmacht und preisbewusste KonsumentInnen statt staatliche Regulierung vorherrschen und ein Technikszenario, unter der Annahme, dass Kläranlagen, bedingt durch eine starke Regulierung, aufgerüstet werden. Bei der Modellierung von Handlungsentscheidungen wurden die Wahrnehmungsgraphen und die vier Szenarien miteinander verknüpft. Pro Substanz wurde ein Modell entwickelt, welches die wichtigsten Systemkomponenten in einer angemessenen Komplexität umfasst und die von den Akteuren gemeinsam getragene Einschätzung der Wirkungsbeziehungen darstellt. Insgesamt wurden 16 Modelle entwickelt. Basierend auf den simulierten Akteurshandlungen wurden relativen Veränderungen der Schlüsselfaktoren Produktion, Import und Leistungsfähigkeit der Kläranlagen für die vier genannten Szenarien berechnet. In Zusammenarbeit mit Pieter Bots konnten algorithmische Beiträge zur Analyse- und Modellierungssoftware DANA getestet und verbessert werden. Da keine vollständige und zugleich leicht verständliche Einführung zu DANA vorlag, wurde für Nutzer im Rahmen dieser Dissertation eine Anleitung verfasst, die die Modellierung von Wahrnehmungsgraphen und deren Analyse sowie alle Schritte der akteursbasierten Modellierung mit DANA erläutert.
Die kumulative Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit der atmosphärischen Konzentration von Eiskeimen, einer Unterklasse des atmosphärischen Aerosols, die bei der Eisbildung in Wolken eine zentrale Bedeutung besitzt. Messungen der Eiskeimkonzentration am Taunusobservatorium (Kleiner Feldberg) (nahe Frankfurt am Main) wurden mit dem Verfahren einer Vakuum-Diffusionskammer durchgeführt. Die Arbeit umfasst die Darstellung des angewandten Messverfahrens und die Analyse und Bewertung der Messergebnisse für den Raum Zentraleuropa, anhand von u.a. Rückwärtstrajektorien und Korrelationen zu aerosolphysikalischen Parametern. Ein signifikanter Einfluss von Mineralstaub-Ferntransport aus Wüstengebieten auf die Eiskeimkonzentration in Zentral-Europa wurde ermittelt.
Emissions of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), one of the strongest greenhouse gases on a per molecule basis, are targeted to be collectively reduced under the Kyoto Protocol. Because of its long atmospheric lifetime (estimated as 800 to 3200 years), the accumulation of SF6 in the atmosphere is a direct measure of its global emissions. Examination of our extended data set of globally distributed high-precision SF6 observations shows an increase in SF6 abundance from near zero in the 1970s to a global mean of 6.7 ppt by the end of 2008. In-depth evaluation of our long-term data records shows that the global source of SF6 decreased after 1995, most likely due to SF6 emission reductions in industrialised countries, but increased again after 1998. By subtracting those emissions reported by Annex I countries to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climatic Change (UNFCCC) from our observation-inferred SF6 source leaves a surprisingly large gap of more than 70–80% of non-reported SF6 emissions in the last decade. This suggests a strong under-estimation of emissions in Annex I countries and underlines the urgent need for independent atmospheric verification of greenhouse gases emissions accounting.
We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its rapid growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.026 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.057 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Fur- thermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by more than a factor of three.
We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in air samples originating from remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its accelerating growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the current northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.029 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.056 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Furthermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by a factor of three.
Fractional release factors of long-lived halogenated organic compounds in the tropical stratosphere
(2010)
Fractional release factors (FRFs) of organic trace gases are time-independent quantities that influence the calculation of Global Warming Potentials and Ozone Depletion Potentials. We present the first set of vertically resolved FRFs for 15 long-lived halocarbons in the tropical stratosphere up to 34 km altitude. They were calculated from measurements on air samples collected on board balloons and a high altitude aircraft. We compare the derived dependencies of FRFs on the mean stratospheric transit times (the so-called mean ages of air) with similarly derived FRFs originating from measurements at higher latitudes and find significant differences. Moreover a comparison with averaged FRFs currently used by the World Meteorological Organisation revealed the limitations of these measures due to their observed vertical and latitudinal variability. The presented data set could be used to improve future ozone level and climate projections.
This paper presents an analysis of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen (H2) budget with a particular focus on soil uptake and surface emissions. A variational inversion scheme is combined with observations from the RAMCES and EUROHYDROS atmospheric networks, which include continuous measurements performed between mid-2006 and mid-2009. Net H2 surface flux, soil uptake distinct from surface emissions and finally, soil uptake, biomass burning, anthropogenic emissions and N2 fixation-related emissions separately were inverted in several scenarios. The various inversions generate an estimate for each term of the H2 budget. The net H2 flux per region (High Northern Hemisphere, Tropics and High Southern Hemisphere) varies between −8 and 8 Tg yr−1. The best inversion in terms of fit to the observations combines updated prior surface emissions and a soil deposition velocity map that is based on soil uptake measurements. Our estimate of global H2 soil uptake is −59 ± 4.0 Tg yr−1. Forty per cent of this uptake is located in the High Northern Hemisphere and 55% is located in the Tropics. In terms of surface emissions, seasonality is mainly driven by biomass burning emissions. The inferred European anthropogenic emissions are consistent with independent H2 emissions estimated using a H2/CO mass ratio of 0.034 and CO emissions considering their respective uncertainties. To constrain a more robust partition of H2 sources and sinks would need additional constraints, such as isotopic measurements.