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Since the description of sepsis by Schottmüller in 1914, the amount on knowledge available on sepsis and its underlying pathophysiology has substantially increased. Epidemiologic examinations of abdominal septic shock patients show the potential for high risk posed by and the extensive therapy situation in the intensive care unit (ICU) (5). Unfortunately, until now it has not been possible to significantly reduce the mortality rate of septic shock, which is as high as 50-60% worldwide, although PROWESS' results (1) are encouraging. This paper summarizes the main results of the MEDAN project and their medical impacts. Several aspects are already published, see the references. The heterogeneity of patient groups and the variations in therapy strategies is seen as one of the main problems for sepsis trials. In the MEDAN multi-center study of 71 intensive care units in Germany, a group of 382 patients made up exclusively of abdominal septic shock patients who met the consensus criteria for septic shock (3) was analysed. For use within scores or stand-alone experiments variables are often studied as isolated variables, not as a multidimensional whole, e.g. a recent study takes a look at the role thrombocytes play (15). To avoid this limitation, our study compares several established scores (SOFA, APACHE II, SAPS II, MODS) by a multi-dimensional neuronal network analysis. For outcome prediction the data of 382 patients was analysed by using most of the commonly documented vital parameters and doses of medicine (metric variables). Data was collected in German hospitals from 1998 to 2001. The 382 handwritten patient records were transferred to an electronic database giving the amount of 2.5 million data entries. The metric data contained in the database is composed of daily measurements and doses of medicine. We used range and plausibility checks to allow no faulty data in the electronic database. 187 of the 382 patients are deceased (49 %).
Attraction and commercial success of web sites depend heavily on the additional values visitors may find. Here, individual, automatically obtained and maintained user profiles are the key for user satisfaction. This contribution shows for the example of a cooking information site how user profiles might be obtained using category information provided by cooking recipes. It is shown that metrical distance functions and standard clustering procedures lead to erroneous results. Instead, we propose a new mutual information based clustering approach and outline its implications for the example of user profiling.
Data driven automatic model selection and parameter adaptation – a case study for septic shock
(2004)
In bioinformatics, biochemical pathways can be modeled by many differential equations. It is still an open problem how to fit the huge amount of parameters of the equations to the available data. Here, the approach of systematically learning the parameters is necessary. This paper propose as model selection criterion the least complex description of the observed data by the model, the minimum description length. For the small, but important example of inflammation modeling the performance of the approach is evaluated.
In bioinformatics, biochemical signal pathways can be modeled by many differential equations. It is still an open problem how to fit the huge amount of parameters of the equations to the available data. Here, the approach of systematically obtaining the most appropriate model and learning its parameters is extremely interesting. One of the most often used approaches for model selection is to choose the least complex model which “fits the needs”. For noisy measurements, the model which has the smallest mean squared error of the observed data results in a model which fits too accurately to the data – it is overfitting. Such a model will perform good on the training data, but worse on unknown data. This paper propose as model selection criterion the least complex description of the observed data by the model, the minimum description length. For the small, but important example of inflammation modeling the performance of the approach is evaluated. Keywords: biochemical pathways, differential equations, septic shock, parameter estimation, overfitting, minimum description length.
In bioinformatics, biochemical pathways can be modeled by many differential equations. It is still an open problem how to fit the huge amount of parameters of the equations to the available data. Here, the approach of systematically learning the parameters is necessary. In this paper, for the small, important example of inflammation modeling a network is constructed and different learning algorithms are proposed. It turned out that due to the nonlinear dynamics evolutionary approaches are necessary to fit the parameters for sparse, given data. Proceedings of the 15th IEEE International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence - ICTAI 2003
In bioinformatics, biochemical pathways can be modeled by many differential equations. It is still an open problem how to fit the huge amount of parameters of the equations to the available data. Here, the approach of systematically learning the parameters is necessary. In this paper, for the small, important example of inflammation modeling a network is constructed and different learning algorithms are proposed. It turned out that due to the nonlinear dynamics evolutionary approaches are necessary to fit the parameters for sparse, given data. Keywords: model parameter adaption, septic shock. coupled differential equations, genetic algorithm.
In contrast to the symbolic approach, neural networks seldom are designed to explain what they have learned. This is a major obstacle for its use in everyday life. With the appearance of neuro-fuzzy systems which use vague, human-like categories the situation has changed. Based on the well-known mechanisms of learning for RBF networks, a special neuro-fuzzy interface is proposed in this paper. It is especially useful in medical applications, using the notation and habits of physicians and other medically trained people. As an example, a liver disease diagnosis system is presented.
The prevention of credit card fraud is an important application for prediction techniques. One major obstacle for using neural network training techniques is the high necessary diagnostic quality: Since only one financial transaction of a thousand is invalid no prediction success less than 99.9% is acceptable. Due to these credit card transaction proportions complete new concepts had to be developed and tested on real credit card data. This paper shows how advanced data mining techniques and neural network algorithm can be combined successfully to obtain a high fraud coverage combined with a low false alarm rate.
This paper describes the use of a Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network in the approximation of process parameters for the extrusion of a rubber profile in tyre production. After introducing the rubber industry problem, the RBF network model and the RBF net learning algorithm are developed, which uses a growing number of RBF units to compensate the approximation error up to the desired error limit. Its performance is shown for simple analytic examples. Then the paper describes the modelling of the industrial problem. Simulations show good results, even when using only a few training samples. The paper is concluded by a discussion of possible systematic error influences, improvements and potential generalisation benefits. Keywords: Adaptive process control; Parameter estimation; RBF-nets; Rubber extrusion
In this paper we regard first the situation where parallel channels are disturbed by noise. With the goal of maximal information conservation we deduce the conditions for a transform which "immunizes" the channels against noise influence before the signals are used in later operations. It shows up that the signals have to be decorrelated and normalized by the filter which corresponds for the case of one channel to the classical result of Shannon. Additional simulations for image encoding and decoding show that this constitutes an efficient approach for noise suppression. Furthermore, by a corresponding objective function we deduce the stochastic and deterministic learning rules for a neural network that implements the data orthonormalization. In comparison with other already existing normalization networks our network shows approximately the same in the stochastic case but, by its generic deduction ensures the convergence and enables the use as independent building block in other contexts, e.g. whitening for independent component analysis. Keywords: information conservation, whitening filter, data orthonormalization network, image encoding, noise suppression.
This paper describes the use of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. It approximates the process parameters for the extrusion of a rubber profile used in tyre production. After introducing the problem, we describe the RBF net algorithm and the modeling of the industrial problem. The algorithm shows good results even using only a few training samples. It turns out that the „curse of dimensions“ plays an important role in the model. The paper concludes by a discussion of possible systematic error influences and improvements.
The paper focuses on the division of the sensor field into subsets of sensor events and proposes the linear transformation with the smallest achievable error for reproduction: the transform coding approach using the principal component analysis (PCA). For the implementation of the PCA, this paper introduces a new symmetrical, lateral inhibited neural network model, proposes an objective function for it and deduces the corresponding learning rules. The necessary conditions for the learning rate and the inhibition parameter for balancing the crosscorrelations vs. the autocorrelations are computed. The simulation reveals that an increasing inhibition can speed up the convergence process in the beginning slightly. In the remaining paper, the application of the network in picture encoding is discussed. Here, the use of non-completely connected networks for the self-organized formation of templates in cellular neural networks is shown. It turns out that the self-organizing Kohonen map is just the non-linear, first order approximation of a general self-organizing scheme. Hereby, the classical transform picture coding is changed to a parallel, local model of linear transformation by locally changing sets of self-organized eigenvector projections with overlapping input receptive fields. This approach favors an effective, cheap implementation of sensor encoding directly on the sensor chip. Keywords: Transform coding, Principal component analysis, Lateral inhibited network, Cellular neural network, Kohonen map, Self-organized eigenvector jets.
After a short introduction into traditional image transform coding, multirate systems and multiscale signal coding the paper focuses on the subject of image encoding by a neural network. Taking also noise into account a network model is proposed which not only learns the optimal localized basis functions for the transform but also learns to implement a whitening filter by multi-resolution encoding. A simulation showing the multi-resolution capabilitys concludes the contribution.
We present a framework for the self-organized formation of high level learning by a statistical preprocessing of features. The paper focuses first on the formation of the features in the context of layers of feature processing units as a kind of resource-restricted associative multiresolution learning We clame that such an architecture must reach maturity by basic statistical proportions, optimizing the information processing capabilities of each layer. The final symbolic output is learned by pure association of features of different levels and kind of sensorial input. Finally, we also show that common error-correction learning for motor skills can be accomplished also by non-specific associative learning. Keywords: feedforward network layers, maximal information gain, restricted Hebbian learning, cellular neural nets, evolutionary associative learning
It is well known that artificial neural nets can be used as approximators of any continuous functions to any desired degree and therefore be used e.g. in high - speed, real-time process control. Nevertheless, for a given application and a given network architecture the non-trivial task remains to determine the necessary number of neurons and the necessary accuracy (number of bits) per weight for a satisfactory operation which are critical issues in VLSI and computer implementations of nontrivial tasks. In this paper the accuracy of the weights and the number of neurons are seen as general system parameters which determine the maximal approximation error by the absolute amount and the relative distribution of information contained in the network. We define as the error-bounded network descriptional complexity the minimal number of bits for a class of approximation networks which show a certain approximation error and achieve the conditions for this goal by the new principle of optimal information distribution. For two examples, a simple linear approximation of a non-linear, quadratic function and a non-linear approximation of the inverse kinematic transformation used in robot manipulator control, the principle of optimal information distribution gives the the optimal number of neurons and the resolutions of the variables, i.e. the minimal amount of storage for the neural net. Keywords: Kolmogorov complexity, e-Entropy, rate-distortion theory, approximation networks, information distribution, weight resolutions, Kohonen mapping, robot control.
Clathrates are candidate materials for thermoelectric applications because of a number of unique properties. The clathrate I phases in the Ba-Ni-Ge ternary system allow controlled variation of the charge carrier concentration by adjusting the Ni content. Depending on the Ni content, the physical properties vary from metal-like to insulator-like and show a transition from p-type to n-type conduction. Here we present first results on the characterization of millimeter-sized single crystals grown by the Bridgman technique. Single crystals with a composition of Ba8Ni3.5Ge42.1h0.4 show metallic behavior (dp/dT > 0) albeit with high resistivity at room temperature [p (300 K) = 1 mOhm cm]. The charge carrier concentration at 300 K, as determined from Hall-effect measurements, is 2.3 e-/unit cell. The dimensionless thermoelectric figure of merit estimated at 680 K is ZT ~ 0.2. Keywords Clathrates - thermoelectric material - intermetallic compound - nickel
We suggest a new method to compute the spectrum and wave functions of excited states. We construct a stochastic basis of Bargmann link states, drawn from a physical probability density distribution and compute transition amplitudes between stochastic basis states. From such transition matrix we extract wave functions and the energy spectrum. We apply this method toU(1)2+1 lattice gauge theory. As a test we compute the energy spectrum, wave functions and thermodynamical functions of the electric Hamiltonian and compare it with analytical results. We find excellent agreement. We observe scaling of energies and wave functions in the variable of time. We also present first results on a small lattice for the full Hamiltonian including the magnetic term.
Central elements of the Bologna declaration have been implemented in a huge variety of curricula in humanities, social sciences, natural sciences and engineering sciences at German universities. Overall the results have been nothing less than disastrous. Surprisingly, this seems to be the perfect time for German universities to talk about introducing a curriculum that is fully compatible with the Bologna declaration for medical education as well. However, German medical education does not have problems the Bologna declaration is intended to solve, such as quality, mobility, internationalization and employability. It is already in the Post-Bologna age.
Nucleation experiments starting from the reaction of OH radicals with SO2 have been performed in the IfT-LFT flow tube under atmospheric conditions at 293±0.5 K for a relative humidity of 13–61%. The presence of different additives (H2, CO, 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene) for adjusting the OH radical concentration and resulting OH levels in the range (4–300) ×105 molecule cm -3 did not influence the nucleation process itself. The number of detected particles as well as the threshold H2SO4 concentration needed for nucleation was found to be strongly dependent on the counting efficiency of the used counting devices. High-sensitivity particle counters allowed the measurement of freshly nucleated particles with diameters down to about 1.5 nm. A parameterization of the experimental data was developed using power law equations for H2SO4 and H2O vapour. The exponent for H2SO4 from different measurement series was in the range of 1.7–2.1 being in good agreement with those arising from analysis of nucleation events in the atmosphere. For increasing relative humidity, an increase of the particle number was observed. The exponent for H2O vapour was found to be 3.1 representing an upper limit. Addition of 1.2×1011 molecule cm -3 or 1.2×1012 molecule cm -3 of NH3 (range of atmospheric NH3 peak concentrations) revealed that NH3 has a measureable, promoting effect on the nucleation rate under these conditions. The promoting effect was found to be more pronounced for relatively dry conditions, i.e. a rise of the particle number by 1–2 orders of magnitude at RH = 13% and only by a factor of 2–5 at RH = 47% (NH3 addition: 1.2×1012 molecule cm -3). Using the amine tert-butylamine instead of NH3, the enhancing impact of the base for nucleation and particle growth appears to be stronger. Tert-butylamine addition of about 1010 molecule cm -3 at RH = 13% enhances particle formation by about two orders of magnitude, while for NH3 only a small or negligible effect on nucleation in this range of concentration appeared. This suggests that amines can strongly influence atmospheric H2SO4-H2O nucleation and are probably promising candidates for explaining existing discrepancies between theory and observations.
We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its rapid growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.026 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.057 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Fur- thermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by more than a factor of three.
We report the first measurements of 1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea), a substitute for ozone depleting compounds, in air samples originating from remote regions of the atmosphere and present evidence for its accelerating growth. Observed mixing ratios ranged from below 0.01 ppt in deep firn air to 0.59 ppt in the current northern mid-latitudinal upper troposphere. Firn air samples collected in Greenland were used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric abundance. Year-on-year increases were deduced, with acceleration in the growth rate from 0.029 ppt per year in 2000 to 0.056 ppt per year in 2007. Upper tropospheric air samples provide evidence for a continuing growth until late 2009. Furthermore we calculated a stratospheric lifetime of 370 years from measurements of air samples collected on board high altitude aircraft and balloons. Emission estimates were determined from the reconstructed atmospheric trend and suggest that current "bottom-up" estimates of global emissions for 2005 are too high by a factor of three.
A comprehensive evaluation of seasonal backward trajectories initialized in the northern hemisphere lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has been performed to investigate the factors that determine the temporal and spatial structure of troposphere-to-stratosphere-transport (TST) and it’s impact on the LMS. In particular we explain the fundamental role of the transit time since last TST (tTST) for the chemical composition of the LMS. According to our results the structure of the LMS can be characterized by a layer with tTST<40 days forming a narrow band around the local tropopause. This layer extends about 30K above the local dynamical tropopause, corresponding to the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) as identified by CO. The LMS beyond this layer shows a relatively well defined separation as marked by an aprupt transition to longer tTST indicating less frequent mixing and a smaller fraction of tropospheric air. Thus the LMS constitutes a region of two well defined regimes of tropospheric influence. These can be characterized mainly by different transport times from the troposphere and different fractions of tropospheric air. Carbon monoxide (CO) mirrors this structure of tTST due to it’s finite lifetime on the order of three months. Water vapour isopleths, on the other hand, do not uniquely indicate TST and are independent of tTST, but are determined by the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP) of air parcels. Most of the backward trajectories from the LMS experienced their LCP in the tropics and sub-tropics, and TST often occurs 20 days after trajectories have encountered their LCP. Therefore, ExTL properties deduced from CO and H2O provide totally different informations on transport and particular TST for the LMS.
Two different single particle mass spectrometers were operated in parallel at the Swiss High Alpine Research Station Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) during the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment (CLACE 6) in February and March 2007. During mixed phase cloud events ice crystals from 5–20 micro m were separated from larger ice aggregates, non-activated, interstitial aerosol particles and supercooled droplets using an Ice-Counterflow Virtual Impactor (Ice-CVI). During one cloud period supercooled droplets were additionally sampled and analyzed by changing the Ice-CVI setup. The small ice particles and droplets were evaporated by injection into dry air inside the Ice-CVI. The resulting ice and droplet residues (IR and DR) were analyzed for size and composition by the two single particle mass spectrometers: a custom-built Single Particle Laser-Ablation Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (SPLAT) and a commercial Aerosol Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS, TSI Model 3800). During CLACE 6 the SPLAT instrument characterized 355 individual IR that produced a mass spectrum for at least one polarity and the ATOFMS measured 152 IR. The mass spectra were binned in classes, based on the combination of dominating substances, such as mineral dust, sulfate, potassium and elemental carbon or organic material. The derived chemical information from the ice residues is compared to the JFJ ambient aerosol that was sampled while the measurement station was out of clouds (several thousand particles analyzed by SPLAT and ATOFMS) and to the composition of the residues of supercooled cloud droplets (SPLAT: 162 cloud droplet residues analyzed, ATOFMS: 1094). The measurements showed that mineral dust was strongly enhanced in the ice particle residues. Close to all of the SPLAT spectra from ice residues did contain signatures from mineral compounds, albeit connected with varying amounts of soluble compounds. Similarly, close to all of the ATOFMS IR spectra show a mineral or metallic component. Pure sulfate and nitrate containing particles were depleted in the ice residues. Sulfate and nitrate was found to dominate the droplet residues (~90% of the particles). The results from the two different single particle mass spectrometers were generally in agreement. Differences in the results originate from several causes, such as the different wavelength of the desorption and ionisation lasers and different size-dependent particle detection efficiencies.
Background: The integration of the non-cross-resistant chemotherapeutic agents capecitabine and vinorelbine into an intensified dose-dense sequential anthracycline- and taxane-containing regimen in high-risk early breast cancer (EBC) could improve efficacy, but this combination was not examined in this context so far. Methods: Patients with stage II/IIIA EBC (four or more positive lymph nodes) received post-operative intensified dose-dense sequential epirubicin (150mg/m2 every 2 weeks) and paclitaxel (225mg/m2 every 2 weeks) with filgrastim and darbepoetin alfa, followed by capecitabine alone (dose levels 1 and 3) or with vinorelbine (dose levels 2 and 4). Capecitabine was given on days 1-14 every 21 days at 1000 or 1250 mg/m2 twice daily (dose levels 1/2 and 3/4, respectively). Vinorelbine 25 mg/m2 was given on days 1 and 8 of each 21-day course (dose levels 2 and 4). Results: Fifty-one patients were treated. There was one dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) at dose level 1. At dose level 2 (capecitabine and vinorelbine), five of 10 patients experienced DLTs. Therefore evaluation of vinorelbine was abandoned and dose level 3 (capecitabine monotherapy) was expanded. Hand-foot syndrome and diarrhoea were dose limiting with capecitabine 1250 mg/m2 twice daily. At 35.2 months' median follow-up, the estimated 3-year relapse-free and overall survival rates were 82% and 91%, respectively. Administration of capecitabine monotherapy after sequential dose-dense epirubicin and paclitaxel is feasible in node-positive EBC, while the combination of capecitabine and vinorelbine as used here caused more DLTs. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN38983527.
Background: European robins, Erithacus rubecula, show two types of directional responses to the magnetic field: (1) compass orientation that is based on radical pair processes and lateralized in favor of the right eye and (2) so-called 'fixed direction' responses that originate in the magnetite-based receptors in the upper beak. Both responses are light-dependent. Lateralization of the 'fixed direction' responses would suggest an interaction between the two magnetoreception systems. Results: Robins were tested with either the right or the left eye covered or with both eyes uncovered for their orientation under different light conditions. With 502 nm turquoise light, the birds showed normal compass orientation, whereas they displayed an easterly 'fixed direction' response under a combination of 502 nm turquoise with 590 nm yellow light. Monocularly right-eyed birds with their left eye covered were oriented just as they were binocularly as controls: under turquoise in their northerly migratory direction, under turquoise-and-yellow towards east. The response of monocularly left-eyed birds differed: under turquoise light, they were disoriented, reflecting a lateralization of the magnetic compass system in favor of the right eye, whereas they continued to head eastward under turquoise-and-yellow light. Conclusion: 'Fixed direction' responses are not lateralized. Hence the interactions between the magnetite-receptors in the beak and the visual system do not seem to involve the magnetoreception system based on radical pair processes, but rather other, non-lateralized components of the visual system.
Background: Pythium ultimum (P. ultimum) is a ubiquitous oomycete plant pathogen responsible for a variety of diseases on a broad range of crop and ornamental species. Results: The P. ultimum genome (42.8 Mb) encodes 15,290 genes and has extensive sequence similarity and synteny with related Phytophthora species, including the potato blight pathogen Phytophthora infestans. Whole transcriptome sequencing revealed expression of 86% of genes, with detectable differential expression of suites of genes under abiotic stress and in the presence of a host. The predicted proteome includes a large repertoire of proteins involved in plant pathogen interactions although surprisingly, the P. ultimum genome does not encode any classical RXLR effectors and relatively few Crinkler genes in comparison to related phytopathogenic oomycetes. A lower number of enzymes involved in carbohydrate metabolism were present compared to Phytophthora species, with the notable absence of cutinases, suggesting a significant difference in virulence mechanisms between P. ultimum and more host specific oomycete species. Although we observed a high degree of orthology with Phytophthora genomes, there were novel features of the P. ultimum proteome including an expansion of genes involved in proteolysis and genes unique to Pythium. We identified a small gene family of cadherins, proteins involved in cell adhesion, the first report in a genome outside the metazoans. Conclusions: Access to the P. ultimum genome has revealed not only core pathogenic mechanisms within the oomycetes but also lineage specific genes associated with the alternative virulence and lifestyles found within the pythiaceous lineages compared to the Peronosporaceae.
Hereditary angioedema (C1 inhibitor deficiency, HAE) is associated with intermittent swellings which are disabling and may be fatal. Effective treatments are available and these are most useful when given early in the course of the swelling. The requirement to attend a medical facility for parenteral treatment results in delays. Home therapy offers the possibility of earlier treatment and better symptom control, enabling patients to live more healthy, productive lives. This paper examines the evidence for patient-controlled home treatment of acute attacks ('self or assisted administration') and suggests a framework for patients and physicians interested in participating in home or self-administration programmes. It represents the opinion of the authors who have a wide range of expert experience in the management of HAE.
Background: The human chromosomal region 9p21.3 has been shown to be strongly associated with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) in several Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS). Recently, this region has also been shown to be associated with Aggressive Periodontitis (AgP), strengthening the hypothesis that the established epidemiological association between periodontitis and CHD is caused by a shared genetic background, in addition to common environmental and behavioural risk factors. However, the size of the analyzed cohorts in this primary analysis was small compared to other association studies on complex diseases. Using our own AgP cohort, we attempted to confirm the described associations for the chromosomal region 9p21.3. Methods: We analyzed our cohort consisting of patients suffering from the most severe form of AgP, generalized AgP (gAgP) (n = 130) and appropriate periodontally healthy control individuals (n = 339) by genotyping four tagging SNPs (rs2891168, rs1333042, rs1333048 and rs496892), located in the chromosomal region 9p21.3, that have been associated with AgP. Results: The results confirmed significant associations between three of the four SNPs and gAgP. The combination of our results with those from the study which described this association for the first time in a meta-analysis of the four tagging SNPs produced clearly lower p-values compared with the results of each individual study. According to these results, the most plausible genetic model for the association of all four tested SNPs with gAgP seems to be the multiplicative one. Conclusion: We positively replicated the finding of an association between the chromosomal region 9p21.3 and gAgP. This result strengthens support for the hypothesis that shared susceptibility genes within this chromosomal locus might be involved in the pathogenesis of both CHD and gAgP.
On demand treatment and home therapy of hereditary angioedema in Germany - the Frankfurt experience
(2010)
Background: Manifestation of acute edema in hereditary angioedema (HAE) is characterized by interindividual and intraindividual variability in symptom expression over time. Flexible therapy options are needed. Methods: We describe and report on the outcomes of the highly individualized approach to HAE therapy practiced at our HAE center in Frankfurt (Germany). Results: The HAE center at the Frankfurt University Hospital currently treats 450 adults with HAE or AAE and 107 pediatric HAE patients with highly individualized therapeutic approaches. 73.9% of the adult patients treat HAE attacks by on-demand therapy with pasteurized pd C1-INH concentrate, 9.8% use additional prophylaxis with attenuated androgens, 1% of the total patient population in Frankfurt has been treated with Icatibant up to now. In addition adult and selected pediatric patients with a high frequency of severe attacks are instructed to apply individual replacement therapy (IRT) with pasteurized pd C1-INH concentrate. Improvement on Quality of Life items was shown for these patients compared to previous long-term danazol prophylaxis. Home treatment of HAE patients was developed in the Frankfurt HAE center in line with experiences in hemophilia therapy and has so far been implemented over a period of 28 years. At present 248 (55%) of the adult patients and 26 (24%) of the pediatric patients are practicing home treatment either as on demand or IRT treatment. Conclusions: In conclusion, the individualized home therapies provided by our HAE center, aim to limit the disruption to normal daily activities that occurs for many HAE patients. Furthermore, we seek to optimize the economic burden of the disease while offering a maximum quality of life to our patients.
Background We published the Canadian 2003 International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy, and Management of Hereditary Angioedema (HAE; C1 inhibitor [C1-INH] deficiency) and updated this as Hereditary angioedema: a current state-of-the-art review: Canadian Hungarian 2007 International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy, and Management of Hereditary Angioedema. Objective To update the International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy and Management of Hereditary Angioedema (circa 2010). Methods The Canadian Hereditary Angioedema Network (CHAEN)/Reseau Canadien d'angioedeme hereditaire (RCAH) (www.haecanada.com) and cosponsors University of Calgary and the Canadian Society of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (with an unrestricted educational grant from CSL Behring) held our third Conference May 15th to 16th, 2010 in Toronto Canada to update our consensus approach. The Consensus document was reviewed at the meeting and then circulated for review. Results This manuscript is the 2010 International Consensus Algorithm for the Diagnosis, Therapy and Management of Hereditary Angioedema that resulted from that conference. Conclusions Consensus approach is only an interim guide to a complex disorder such as HAE and should be replaced as soon as possible with large phase III and IV clinical trials, meta analyses, and using data base registry validation of approaches including quality of life and cost benefit analyses, followed by large head-to-head clinical trials and then evidence-based guidelines and standards for HAE disease management.
Background: The potential anti-cancer effects of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors are being intensively studied. To date, however, few randomised clinical trials (RCT) have been performed to demonstrate anti-neoplastic effects in the pure oncology setting, and at present, no oncology endpoint-directed RCT has been reported in the high-malignancy risk population of immunosuppressed transplant recipients. Interestingly, since mTOR inhibitors have both immunosuppressive and anti-cancer effects, they have the potential to simultaneously protect against immunologic graft loss and tumour development. Therefore, we designed a prospective RCT to determine if the mTOR inhibitor sirolimus can improve hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free patient survival in liver transplant (LT) recipients with a pre-transplant diagnosis of HCC. Methods: The study is an open-labelled, randomised, RCT comparing sirolimus-containing versus mTOR-inhibitor-free immunosuppression in patients undergoing LT for HCC. Patients with a histologically confirmed HCC diagnosis are randomised into 2 groups within 4-6 weeks after LT; one arm is maintained on a centre-specific mTOR-inhibitor-free immunosuppressive protocol and the second arm is maintained on a centre-specific mTOR-inhibitor-free immunosuppressive protocol for the first 4-6 weeks, at which time sirolimus is initiated. A 3-year recruitment phase is planned with a 5-year follow-up, testing HCC-free survival as the primary endpoint. Our hypothesis is that sirolimus use in the second arm of the study will improve HCC-free survival. The study is a non-commercial investigator-initiated trial (IIT) sponsored by the University Hospital Regensburg and is endorsed by the European Liver and Intestine Transplant Association; 13 countries within Europe, Canada and Australia are participating. Discussion: If our hypothesis is correct that mTOR inhibition can reduce HCC tumour growth while simultaneously providing immunosuppression to protect the liver allograft from rejection, patients should experience less post-transplant problems with HCC recurrence, and therefore could expect a longer and better quality of life. A positive outcome will likely change the standard of posttransplant immunosuppressive care for LT patients with HCC. (trial registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00355862) (EudraCT Number: 2005-005362-36)
Introduction: It has been proposed that individual genetic variation contributes to the course of severe infections and sepsis. Recent studies of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the endotoxin receptor and its signaling system showed an association with the risk of disease development. This study aims to examine the response associated with genetic variations of TLR4, the receptor for bacterial LPS, and a central intracellular signal transducer (TIRAP/Mal) on cytokine release and for susceptibility and course of severe hospital acquired infections in distinct patient populations. Methods: Three intensive care units in tertiary care university hospitals in Greece and Germany participated. 375 and 415 postoperative patients and 159 patients with ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) were included. TLR4 and TIRAP/Mal polymorphisms in 375 general surgical patients were associated with risk of infection, clinical course and outcome. In two prospective studies, 415 patients following cardiac surgery and 159 patients with newly diagnosed VAP predominantly caused by Gram-negative bacteria were studied for cytokine levels in-vivo and after ex-vivo monocyte stimulation and clinical course. Results: Patients simultaneously carrying polymorphisms in TIRAP/Mal and TLR4 and patients homozygous for the TIRAP/Mal SNP had a significantly higher risk of severe infections after surgery (odds ratio (OR) 5.5; confidence interval (CI): 1.34 - 22.64; P = 0.02 and OR: 7.3; CI: 1.89 - 28.50; P < 0.01 respectively). Additionally we found significantly lower circulating cytokine levels in double-mutant individuals with ventilator associated pneumonia and reduced cytokine production in an ex-vivo monocyte stimulation assay, but this difference was not apparent in TIRAP/Mal-homozygous patients. In cardiac surgery patients without infection, the cytokine release profiles were not changed when comparing different genotypes. Conclusions: Carriers of mutations in sequential components of the TLR signaling system may have an increased risk for severe infections. Patients with this genotype showed a decrease in cytokine release when infected which was not apparent in patients with sterile inflammation following cardiac surgery.
Introduction: It has been proposed that individual genetic variation contributes to the course of severe infections and sepsis. Recent studies of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the endotoxin receptor and its signaling system showed an association with the risk of disease development. This study aims to examine the response associated with genetic variations of TLR4, the receptor for bacterial LPS, and a central intracellular signal transducer (TIRAP/Mal) on cytokine release and for susceptibility and course of severe hospital acquired infections in distinct patient populations. Methods: Three intensive care units in tertiary care university hospitals in Greece and Germany participated. 375 and 415 postoperative patients and 159 patients with ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) were included. TLR4 and TIRAP/Mal polymorphisms in 375 general surgical patients were associated with risk of infection, clinical course and outcome. In two prospective studies, 415 patients following cardiac surgery and 159 patients with newly diagnosed VAP predominantly caused by Gram-negative bacteria were studied for cytokine levels in-vivo and after ex-vivo monocyte stimulation and clinical course. Results: Patients simultaneously carrying polymorphisms in TIRAP/Mal and TLR4 and patients homozygous for the TIRAP/Mal SNP had a significantly higher risk of severe infections after surgery (odds ratio (OR) 5.5; confidence interval (CI): 1.34 - 22.64; P = 0.02 and OR: 7.3; CI: 1.89 - 28.50; P < 0.01 respectively). Additionally we found significantly lower circulating cytokine levels in double-mutant individuals with ventilator associated pneumonia and reduced cytokine production in an ex-vivo monocyte stimulation assay, but this difference was not apparent in TIRAP/Mal-homozygous patients. In cardiac surgery patients without infection, the cytokine release profiles were not changed when comparing different genotypes. Conclusions: Carriers of mutations in sequential components of the TLR signaling system may have an increased risk for severe infections. Patients with this genotype showed a decrease in cytokine release when infected which was not apparent in patients with sterile inflammation following cardiac surgery.
Blood vessels form de novo through the tightly regulated programs of vasculogenesis and angiogenesis. Both processes are distinct but one of the steps they share is the formation of a central lumen, when groups of cells organized as vascular cords undergo complex changes to achieve a tube-like morphology. Recently, a protein termed epidermal growth factor-like domain 7 (EGFL7) was described as a novel endothelial cell-derived factor involved in the regulation of the spatial arrangement of cells during vascular tube assembly. With its impact on tubulogenesis and vessel shape EGFL7 joined the large family of molecules governing blood vessel formation. Only recently, the molecular mechanisms underlying EGFL7's effects have been started to be elucidated and shaping of the extracellular matrix (ECM) as well as Notch signaling might very well play a role in mediating its biological effects. Further, findings in knock-out animal models suggest miR-126, a miRNA located within the egfl7 gene, has a major role in vessel development by promoting VEGF signaling, angiogenesis and vascular integrity. This review summarizes our current knowledge on EGFL7 and miR-126 and we will discuss the implications of both bioactive molecules for the formation of blood vessels.
Background: Up to the 1950s, there was an ongoing debate about the diversity of hereditary optic neuropathies, in particular as to whether all inherited optic atrophies can be ascribed to Leber's hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) or represent different disease entities. In 1954 W. Jaeger published a detailed clinical and genealogical investigation of a large family with explicit autosomal dominant segregation of optic atrophy thus proving the existence of a discrete disease different from LHON, which is nowadays known as autosomal dominant optic atrophy (ADOA). Since the year 2000 ADOA is associated with genomic mutations in the OPA1 gene, which codes for a protein that is imported into mitochondria where it is required for mitochondrial fusion. Interestingly enough, the underlying mutation in this family has not been identified since then. Results: We have reinvestigated this family with the aim to identify the mutation and to further clarify the underlying pathomechanism. Patients showed a classical non-syndromic ADOA. The long term deterioration in vision in the two teenagers examined 50 years later is of particular note 5/20 to 6/120. Multiplex ligation probe amplification revealed a duplication of the OPA1 exons 7-9 which was confirmed by long distance PCR and cDNA analysis, resulting in an in-frame duplication of 102 amino acids. Segregation was verified in 53 available members of the updated pedigree and a penetrance of 88% was calculated. Fibroblast cultures from skin biopsies were established to assess the mitochondrial network integrity and to qualitatively and quantitatively study the consequences of the mutation on transcript and protein level. Fibroblast cultures demonstrated a fragmented mitochondrial network. Processing of the OPA1 protein was altered. There was no correlation of the OPA1 transcript levels and the OPA1 protein levels in the fibroblasts. Intriguingly an overall decrease of mitochondrial proteins was observed in patients' fibroblasts, while the OPA1 transcript levels were elevated. Conclusions: The thorough study of this family provides a detailed clinical picture accompanied by a molecular investigation of patients' fibroblasts. Our data show a classic OPA1-associated non-syndromic ADOA segregating in this family. Cell biological findings suggest that OPA1 is regulated by post-translational mechanisms and we would like to hypothesize that loss of OPA1 function might lead to impaired mitochondrial quality control. With the clinical, genetic and cell biological characterisation of a family described already more than 50 years ago, we span more than half a century of research in optic neuropathies.
Background: Vaccinia virus strain Lister Elstree (VACV) is a test virus in the DVV/RKI guidelines as representative of the stable enveloped viruses. Since the potential risk of laboratory-acquired infections with VACV persists and since the adverse effects of vaccination with VACV are described, the replacement of VACV by the modified vaccinia Ankara strain (MVA) was studied by testing the activity of different chemical biocides in three German laboratories. Methods: The inactivating properties of different chemical biocides (peracetic acid, aldehydes and alcohols) were tested in a quantitative suspension test according to the DVV/RKI guideline. All tests were performed with a protein load of 10% fetal calf serum with both viruses in parallel using different concentrations and contact times. Residual virus was determined by endpoint dilution method. Results: The chemical biocides exhibited similar virucidal activity against VACV and MVA. In three cases intra-laboratory differences were determined between VACV and MVA - 40% (v/v) ethanol and 30% (v/v) isopropanol are more active against MVA, whereas MVA seems more stable than VACV when testing with 0.05% glutardialdehyde. Test accuracy across the three participating laboratories was high. Remarkably inter-laboratory differences in the reduction factor were only observed in two cases. Conclusions: Our data provide valuable information for the replacement of VACV by MVA for testing chemical biocides and disinfectants. Because MVA does not replicate in humans this would eliminate the potential risk of inadvertent inoculation with vaccinia virus and disease in non-vaccinated laboratory workers.
Introduction: Amniotic fluid harbors cells indicative of all three germ layers, and pluripotent fetal amniotic fluid stem cells (AFSs) are considered potentially valuable for applications in cellular therapy and tissue engineering. We investigated whether it is possible to direct the cell fate of AFSs in vivo by transplantation experiments into a particular microenvironment, the mammary fat pad. This microenvironment provides the prerequisites to study stem cell function and the communication between mesenchymal and epithelial cells. On clearance of the endogenous epithelium, the ductal tree can be reconstituted by the transfer of exogenously provided mammary stem cells. Analogously, exogenously provided stem cells from other tissues can be investigated for their potential to contribute to mammary gland regeneration. Methods: We derived pluripotent murine AFSs, measured the expression of stem cell markers, and confirmed their in vitro differentiation potential. AFSs were transplanted into cleared and non cleared fat pads of immunocompromised mice to evaluate their ability to assume particular cell fates under the instructive conditions of the fat-pad microenvironment and the hormonal stimulation during pregnancy. Results: Transplantation of AFSs into cleared fat pads alone or in the presence of exogenous mammary epithelial cells caused their differentiation into stroma and adipocytes and replaced endogenous mesenchymal components surrounding the ducts in co-transplantation experiments. Similarly, transplantation of AFSs into fat pads that had not been previously cleared led to AFS-derived stromal cells surrounding the elongating endogenous ducts. AFSs expressed the marker protein α-SMA, but did not integrate into the myoepithelial cell layer of the ducts in virgin mice. With pregnancy, a small number of AFS-derived cells were present in acinar structures. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate that the microenvironmental cues of the mammary fat pad cause AFSs to participate in mammary gland regeneration by providing mesenchymal components to emerging glandular structures, but do not incorporate or differentiate into ductal epithelial cells.
Poster Presentation from Nineteenth Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting: CNS*2010 San Antonio, TX, USA. 24-30 July 2010 Statistical models of neural activity are at the core of the field of modern computational neuroscience. The activity of single neurons has been modeled to successfully explain dependencies of neural dynamics to its own spiking history, to external stimuli or other covariates [1]. Recently, there has been a growing interest in modeling spiking activity of a population of simultaneously recorded neurons to study the effects of correlations and functional connectivity on neural information processing (existing models include generalized linear models [2,3] or maximum-entropy approaches [4]). For point-process-based models of single neurons, the time-rescaling theorem has proven to be a useful toolbox to assess goodness-of-fit. In its univariate form, the time-rescaling theorem states that if the conditional intensity function of a point process is known, then its inter-spike intervals can be transformed or “rescaled” so that they are independent and exponentially distributed [5]. However, the theorem in its original form lacks sensitivity to detect even strong dependencies between neurons. Here, we present how the theorem can be extended to be applied to neural population models and we provide a step-by-step procedure to perform the statistical tests. We then apply both the univariate and multivariate tests to simplified toy models, but also to more complicated many-neuron models and to neuronal populations recorded in V1 of awake monkey during natural scenes stimulation. We demonstrate that important features of the population activity can only be detected using the multivariate extension of the test. ...
The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens.
Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is described as a function of gaseous sulfuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites. Here we introduce a new nucleation parameter including ozone and water vapor concentrations as well as UV-B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. Applying this new parameter to field studies conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites it is found capable to predict the occurrence of nucleation events and their seasonal and annual variation indicating a significant role of organics. Extrapolation to possible future conditions of ozone, water vapor and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in nucleation event number.
Atmospheric new particle formation is a general phenomenon observed over coniferous forests. So far nucleation is either parameterised as a function of gaseous sulphuric acid concentration only, which is unable to explain the observed seasonality of nucleation events at different measurement sites, or as a function of sulphuric acid and organic molecules. Here we introduce different nucleation parameters based on the interaction of sulphuric acid and terpene oxidation products and elucidate the individual importance. They include basic trace gas and meteorological measurements such as ozone and water vapour concentrations, temperature (for terpene emission) and UV B radiation as a proxy for OH radical formation. We apply these new parameters to field studies conducted at conducted at Finnish and German measurement sites and compare these to nucleation observations on a daily and annual scale. General agreement was found, although the specific compounds responsible for the nucleation process remain speculative. This can be interpreted as follows: During cooler seasons the emission of biogenic terpenes and the OH availability limits the new particle formation while towards warmer seasons the ratio of ozone and water vapour concentration seems to dominate the general behaviour. Therefore, organics seem to support ambient nucleation besides sulphuric acid or an OH-related compound. Using these nucleation parameters to extrapolate the current conditions to prognosed future concentrations of ozone, water vapour and organic concentrations leads to a significant potential increase in the nucleation event number.
A new, two-channel instrument for simultaneous NO3 and N2O5 monitoring was used to make the first comprehensive set of nocturnal NOx measurements (NO, NO2, NO3 and N2O5) at the Taunus Observatory, a rural mountain site (Kleiner Feldberg) in South-western Germany. In May 2008, NO3 and N2O5 mixing ratios were well above the instrumental detection limit (a few ppt) on all nights of the campaign and were characterised by large variability. The concentrations of NO3, N2O5 and NO2 were consistent with the equilibrium constant, K2, defining the rates of formation and thermal dissociation of N2O5. A steady-state lifetime analysis is consistent with the loss of nocturnal NOx being dominated by the reaction of NO3 with volatile organic compounds in this forested region, with N2O5 uptake to aerosols of secondary importance. Analysis of a limited dataset obtained at high relative humidity indicated that the loss of N2O5 by reaction with water vapour is less efficient (>factor 3) than derived using laboratory kinetic data. The fraction of NOx present as NO3 and N2O5 reached ~20% on some nights, with night-time losses of NOx competing with daytime losses.
Fractional release factors of long-lived halogenated organic compounds in the tropical stratosphere
(2010)
Fractional release factors (FRFs) of organic trace gases are time-independent quantities that influence the calculation of Global Warming Potentials and Ozone Depletion Potentials. We present the first set of vertically resolved FRFs for 15 long-lived halocarbons in the tropical stratosphere up to 34 km altitude. They were calculated from measurements on air samples collected on board balloons and a high altitude aircraft. We compare the derived dependencies of FRFs on the mean stratospheric transit times (the so-called mean ages of air) with similarly derived FRFs originating from measurements at higher latitudes and find significant differences. Moreover a comparison with averaged FRFs currently used by the World Meteorological Organisation revealed the limitations of these measures due to their observed vertical and latitudinal variability. The presented data set could be used to improve future ozone level and climate projections.
We synthesised observations of total particle number (CN) concentration from 36 sites around the world. We found that annual mean CN concentrations are typically 300–2000 cm -3 in the marine boundary layer and free troposphere (FT) and 1000–10 000 cm -3 in the continental boundary layer (BL). Many sites exhibit pronounced seasonality with summer time concentrations a factor of 2–10 greater than wintertime concentrations. We used these CN observations to evaluate primary and secondary sources of particle number in a global aerosol microphysics model. We found that emissions of primary particles can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of observed CN concentration (R2=0.46) but fail to explain the observed seasonal cycle (R2=0.1). The modeled CN concentration in the FT was biased low (normalised mean bias, NMB=& -88%) unless a secondary source of particles was included, for example from binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (NMB= -25%). Simulated CN concentrations in the continental BL were also biased low (NMB= -74%) unless the number emission of anthropogenic primary particles was increased or a mechanism that results in particle formation in the BL was included. We ran a number of simulations where we included an empirical BL nucleation mechanism either using the activation-type mechanism (nucleation rate, J, proportional to gas-phase sulfuric acid concentration to the power one) or kinetic-type mechanism (J proportional to sulfuric acid to the power two) with a range of nucleation coefficients. We found that the seasonal CN cycle observed at continental BL sites was better simulated by BL particle formation (R2=0.3) than by increasing the number emission from primary anthropogenic sources (R2=0.18). The nucleation constants that resulted in best overall match between model and observed CN concentrations were consistent with values derived in previous studies from detailed case studies at individual sites. In our model, kinetic and activation-type nucleation parameterizations gave similar agreement with observed monthly mean CN concentrations.
River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecological responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated. We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases. Thus, by the 2050s, climate change may have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. However, dam impacts are likely underestimated by our study. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reductions, while in others climate change provides opportunities for reducing past reductions. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations.
This paper investigates the potential impact of secondary information on rainfall mapping applying Ordinary Kriging. Secondary information tested is a natural area indicator, which is a combination of topographic features and weather conditions. Cross validation shows that secondary information only marginally improves the final mapping, indicating that a one-day accumulation time is possibly too short.
Development of a Bioaerosol single particle detector (BIO IN) for the Fast Ice Nucleus CHamber FINCH
(2010)
In this work we present the setup and first tests of our new BIO IN detector. This detector was constructed to classify atmospheric ice nuclei (IN) for their biological content. It is designed to be coupled to the Fast Ice Nucleus CHamber FINCH. If one particle acts as an ice nucleus, it will be at least partly covered with ice at the end of the development section of the FINCH chamber. The device combines an auto-fluorescence detector and a circular depolarization detector for simultaneous detection of biological material and discrimination between water droplets, ice crystals and non activated large aerosol particles. The excitation of biological material with UV light and analysis of auto-fluorescence is a common principle used for flow cytometry, fluorescence microscopy, spectroscopy and imaging. The detection of auto-fluorescence of airborne single particles demands some more experimental effort. However, expensive commercial sensors are available for special purposes, e.g. size distribution measurements. But these sensors will not fit the specifications needed for the FINCH IN counter (e.g. high sample flow of up 10 LPM). The newly developed -low cost- BIO IN sensor uses a single high-power UV LED for the electronic excitation instead of much more expensive UV lasers. Other key advantages of the new sensor are the low weight, compact size, and the little effect on the aerosol sample, which allows it to be coupled with other instruments for further analysis. The instrument will be flown on one of the first missions of the new German research aircraft "HALO" (High Altitude and LOng range).
Processes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere (UT), the Tropical Transition Layer (TTL), and the lower stratosphere (LS) are of importance for the global climate, for stratospheric dynamics and air chemistry, and for their influence on the global distribution of water vapour, trace gases and aerosols. In this contribution we present aerosol and trace gas (in-situ) measurements from the tropical UT/LS over Southern Brazil, Northern Australia, and West Africa. The instruments were operated on board of the Russian high altitude research aircraft M-55 "Geophysica" and the DLR Falcon-20 during the campaigns TROCCINOX (Araçatuba, Brazil, February 2005), SCOUT-O3 (Darwin, Australia, December 2005), and SCOUT-AMMA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, August 2006). The data cover submicron particle number densities and volatility from the COndensation PArticle counting System (COPAS), as well as relevant trace gases like N2O, ozone, and CO. We use these trace gas measurements to place the aerosol data into a broader atmospheric context. Also a juxtaposition of the submicron particle data with previous measurements over Costa Rica and other tropical locations between 1999 and 2007 (NASA DC-8 and NASA WB-57F) is provided. The submicron particle number densities, as a function of altitude, were found to be remarkably constant in the tropical UT/LS altitude band for the two decades after 1987. Thus, a parameterisation suitable for models can be extracted from these measurements. Compared to the average levels in the period between 1987 and 2007 a slight increase of particle abundances was found for 2005/2006 at altitudes with potential temperatures, theta, above 430 K. The origins of this increase are unknown except for increases measured during SCOUT-AMMA. Here the eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano in the Caribbean caused elevated particle mixing ratios. The vertical profiles from Northern hemispheric mid-latitudes between 1999 and 2006 also are compact enough to derive a parameterisation. The tropical profiles all show a broad maximum of particle mixing ratios (between theta ~ 340 K and 390 K) which extends from below the TTL to above the thermal tropopause. Thus these particles are a "reservoir" for vertical transport into the stratosphere. The ratio of non-volatile particle number density to total particle number density was also measured by COPAS. The vertical profiles of this ratio have a maximum of 50% above 370 K over Australia and West Africa and a pronounced minimum directly below. Without detailed chemical composition measurements a reason for the increase of non-volatile particle fractions cannot yet be given. However, half of the particles from the tropical "reservoir" contain compounds other than sulphuric acid and water. Correlations of the measured aerosol mixing ratios with N2O and ozone exhibit compact relationships for the tropical data from SCOUT-AMMA, TROCCINOX, and SCOUT-O3. Correlations with CO are more scattered probably because of the connection to different pollution source regions. We provide additional data from the long distance transfer flights to the campaign sites in Brazil, Australia, and West-Africa. These were executed during a time window of 17 months within a period of relative volcanic quiescence. Thus the data represent a "snapshot picture" documenting the status of a significant part of the global UT/LS fine aerosol at low concentration levels 15 years after the last major (i.e., the 1991 Mount Pinatubo) eruption. The corresponding latitudinal distributions of the measured particle number densities are presented in this paper to provide data of the UT/LS background aerosol for modelling purposes.