Mutual excitation in Eurozone Sovereign CDS : [version 14 may 2014]

  • We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features observed in the data, in particular, the clustering of high default probabilities both in time (over days) and in space (across countries). The feedback between jump events and the intensity of these jumps is the key element of the model. We derive closed-form formulae for CDS prices, and estimate the model by matching theoretical prices to their empirical counterparts. We find evidence of self-excitation and asymmetric cross-excitation. Using impulse-response analysis, we assess the impact of shocks and a potential policy intervention not just on a single country under scrutiny but also, through the effect on cross-excitation risk which generates systemic sovereign risk, on other interconnected countries.

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Author:Yacine Aït-Sahalia, Roger J. A. Laeven, Loriana PelizzonORCiDGND
Parent Title (German):SAFE working paper series ; No. 51
Series (Serial Number):SAFE working paper series (51)
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2014
Year of first Publication:2014
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2014/06/17
Tag:CDS; Feedback; Hawkes processes; Impulse-response; Jumps; Mutually exciting processes; Sovereign risk; Systemic risk
Issue:version 14 may 2014
Page Number:36
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / House of Finance (HoF)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
JEL-Classification:C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C1 Econometric and Statistical Methods: General / C13 Estimation
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht