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During the Holocene, North American ice sheet collapse and rapid sea-level rise reconnected the Black Sea with the global ocean. Rapid meltwater releases into the North Atlantic and associated climate change arguably slowed the pace of Neolithisation across southeastern Europe, originally hypothesized as a catastrophic flooding that fueled culturally-widespread deluge myths. However, we currently lack an independent record linking the timing of meltwater events, sea-level rise and environmental change with the timing of Neolithisation in southeastern Europe. Here, we present a sea surface salinity record from the Northern Aegean Sea indicative of two meltwater events at ~8.4 and ~7.6 kiloyears that can be directly linked to rapid declines in the establishment of Neolithic sites in southeast Europe. The meltwater events point to an increased outflow of low salinity water from the Black Sea driven by rapid sea level rise >1.4 m following freshwater outbursts from Lake Agassiz and the final decay of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our results shed new light on the link between catastrophic sea-level rise and the Neolithisation of southeastern Europe, and present a historical example of how coastal populations could have been impacted by future rapid sea-level rise.
A recent CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber study showed that sulfuric acid and dimethylamine produce new aerosols very efficiently, and yield particle formation rates that are compatible with boundary layer observations. These previously published new particle formation (NPF) rates are re-analyzed in the present study with an advanced method. The results show that the NPF rates at 1.7 nm are more than a factor of 10 faster than previously published due to earlier approximations in correcting particle measurements made at larger detection threshold. The revised NPF rates agree almost perfectly with calculated rates from a kinetic aerosol model at different sizes (1.7 nm and 4.3 nm mobility diameter). In addition, modeled and measured size distributions show good agreement over a wide range (up to ca. 30 nm). Furthermore, the aerosol model is modified such that evaporation rates for some clusters can be taken into account; these evaporation rates were previously published from a flow tube study. Using this model, the findings from the present study and the flow tube experiment can be brought into good agreement. This confirms that nucleation proceeds at rates that are compatible with collision-controlled (a.k.a. kinetically-controlled) new particle formation for the conditions during the CLOUD7 experiment (278 K, 38% RH, sulfuric acid concentration between 1×106 and 3×107 cm-3 and dimethylamine mixing ratio of ~40 pptv). Finally, the simulation of atmospheric new particle formation reveals that even tiny mixing ratios of dimethylamine (0.1 pptv) yield NPF rates that could explain significant boundary layer particle formation. This highlights the need for improved speciation and quantification techniques for atmospheric gas-phase amine measurements.
A recent CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber study showed that sulfuric acid and dimethylamine produce new aerosols very efficiently and yield particle formation rates that are compatible with boundary layer observations. These previously published new particle formation (NPF) rates are reanalyzed in the present study with an advanced method. The results show that the NPF rates at 1.7 nm are more than a factor of 10 faster than previously published due to earlier approximations in correcting particle measurements made at a larger detection threshold. The revised NPF rates agree almost perfectly with calculated rates from a kinetic aerosol model at different sizes (1.7 and 4.3 nm mobility diameter). In addition, modeled and measured size distributions show good agreement over a wide range of sizes (up to ca. 30 nm). Furthermore, the aerosol model is modified such that evaporation rates for some clusters can be taken into account; these evaporation rates were previously published from a flow tube study. Using this model, the findings from the present study and the flow tube experiment can be brought into good agreement for the high base-to-acid ratios (∼ 100) relevant for this study. This confirms that nucleation proceeds at rates that are compatible with collision-controlled (a.k.a. kinetically controlled) NPF for the conditions during the CLOUD7 experiment (278 K, 38 % relative humidity, sulfuric acid concentration between 1 × 106 and 3 × 107 cm−3, and dimethylamine mixing ratio of ∼ 40 pptv, i.e., 1 × 109 cm−3).
Chlorine and bromine atoms can lead to catalytic destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. Therefore the use and production of ozone depleting substances (ODS) containing chlorine and bromine is regulated by the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) has been adapted as an appropriate metric to describe the combined effects of chlorine and bromine released from halocarbons on stratospheric ozone. Here we revisit the concept of calculating EESC. We derive a new formulation of EESC based on an advanced concept of ODS propagation into the stratosphere and reactive halogen release. A new transit time distribution is introduced in which the age spectrum for an inert tracer is weighted with the release function for inorganic halogen from the source gases. This distribution is termed the “release time distribution”. The improved formulation shows that EESC levels in the year 1980 for the mid latitude lower stratosphere were significantly lower than previously calculated. 1980 marks the year commonly defined as the onset of anthropogenic ozone depletion in the stratosphere. Assuming that the EESC value must return to the same level in order for ozone to fully recover, we show that it will take more than 10 years longer than currently assumed in this region of the stratosphere. Based on the improved formulation, EESC level at mid-latitudes will reach this landmark only in 2060. We also present a range of sensitivity studies to investigate the effect of changes and uncertainties in the fractional release factors and in the assumptions on the shape of the release time distributions. We conclude that, under the assumptions that all other atmospheric parameters like stratospheric dynamics and chemistry are unchanged, the recovery of mid latitude stratospheric ozone would be expected to be delayed by about a 10 years, in a similar way as EESC.
Chlorine and bromine atoms lead to catalytic depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Therefore the use and production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) containing chlorine and bromine is regulated by the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) has been adopted as an appropriate metric to describe the combined effects of chlorine and bromine released from halocarbons on stratospheric ozone. Here we revisit the concept of calculating EESC. We derive a refined formulation of EESC based on an advanced concept of ODS propagation into the stratosphere and reactive halogen release. A new transit time distribution is introduced in which the age spectrum for an inert tracer is weighted with the release function for inorganic halogen from the source gases. This distribution is termed the release time distribution. We show that a much better agreement with inorganic halogen loading from the chemistry transport model TOMCAT is achieved compared with using the current formulation. The refined formulation shows EESC levels in the year 1980 for the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, which are significantly lower than previously calculated. The year 1980 is commonly used as a benchmark to which EESC must return in order to reach significant progress towards halogen and ozone recovery. Assuming that – under otherwise unchanged conditions – the EESC value must return to the same level in order for ozone to fully recover, we show that it will take more than 10 years longer than estimated in this region of the stratosphere with the current method for calculation of EESC. We also present a range of sensitivity studies to investigate the effect of changes and uncertainties in the fractional release factors and in the assumptions on the shape of the release time distributions. We further discuss the value of EESC as a proxy for future evolution of inorganic halogen loading under changing atmospheric dynamics using simulations from the EMAC model. We show that while the expected changes in stratospheric transport lead to significant differences between EESC and modelled inorganic halogen loading at constant mean age, EESC is a reasonable proxy for modelled inorganic halogen on a constant pressure level.
Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have proven their usefulness in representing precipitation on a sub-daily scale. However, investigations on sub-hourly scales are still lacking, even though these are the scales for which showers exhibit the most variability. A Lagrangian approach is implemented here to evaluate the representation of showers in a CPM, using the limited-area climate model COSMO-CLM. This approach consists of tracking 5‑min precipitation fields to retrieve different features of showers (e.g., temporal pattern, horizontal speed, lifetime). In total, 312 cases are simulated at a resolution of 0.01 ° over Central Germany, and among these cases, 78 are evaluated against a radar dataset. The model is able to represent most observed features for different types of convective cells. In addition, the CPM reproduced well the observed relationship between the precipitation characteristics and temperature indicating that the COSMO-CLM model is sophisticated enough to represent the climatological features of showers.
Chlorine monoxide (ClO) plays a key role in stratospheric ozone loss processes at midlatitudes. We present two balloon-borne in situ measurements of ClO conducted in northern hemisphere midlatitudes during the period of the maximum of total inorganic chlorine loading in the atmosphere. Both ClO measurements were conducted on board the TRIPLE balloon payload, launched in November 1996 in León, Spain, and in May 1999 in Aire sur l'Adour, France. For both flights a ClO daylight and night-time vertical profile was derived over an altitude range of approximately 15-35 km. ClO mixing ratios are compared to model simulations performed with the photochemical box model version of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Simulations along 24-hour backward trajectories were performed to study the diurnal variation of ClO in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Model simulations for the flight launched in Aire sur l'Adour 1999 show an excellent agreement with the ClO measurements. For the flight launched in León 1996, an overall good agreement is found, whereas the flight is characterized by a more complex dynamical situation due to a possible mixture of vortex and non-vortex air. We note that for both flights at solar zenith angles greater than 86°-87° simulated ClO mixing ratios are higher than observed ClO mixing ratios. However, the present findings indicate that no substantial uncertainties exist in midlatitude chlorine chemistry of the stratosphere.
Fractional release factors of long-lived halogenated organic compounds in the tropical stratosphere
(2009)
Fractional release factors (FRFs) of organic trace gases are time-independent quantities that influence the calculation of Global Warming Potentials and Ozone Depletion Potentials. We present the first set of vertically resolved FRFs for 15 long-lived halo carbons in the tropical stratosphere up to 34 km altitude. They were calculated from measurements on air samples collected on board balloons and a high altitude aircraft. We compare the derived dependencies of FRFs on the mean stratospheric transit times (the so-called mean ages of air) with similarly derived FRFs originating from measurements at higher latitudes and find significant differences. Moreover a comparison with averaged FRFs currently used by the World Meteorological Organisation revealed the latter to be imprecise measures due to their observed vertical and latitudinal variability. The presented data set could thus be used to improve future ozone level and climate projections.
Brachiopod shells are the most widely used geological archive for the reconstruction of the temperature and the oxygen isotope composition of Phanerozoic seawater. However, it is not conclusive whether brachiopods precipitate their shells in thermodynamic equilibrium. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of kinetic controls on the isotope composition of modern brachiopods by measuring the oxygen and clumped isotope compositions of their shells. Our results show that clumped and oxygen isotope compositions depart from thermodynamic equilibrium due to growth rate-induced kinetic effects. These departures are in line with incomplete hydration and hydroxylation of dissolved CO2. These findings imply that the determination of taxon-specific growth rates alongside clumped and bulk oxygen isotope analyses is essential to ensure accurate estimates of past ocean temperatures and seawater oxygen isotope compositions from brachiopods.
Despite mounting evidence of the anthropogenic influence on the Earth's climate, underlying mechanisms of climate change often remain elusive. The investigation of periods of rapid climate change from geological archives may provide crucial information about magnitude, duration, teleconnections of and regional responses to global and hemispheric scale climate perturbations. Thus, paleoclimate reconstructions may help in mitigating and adapting to the challenges of the coming decades. The '8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event' has previously been proposed as a possible analogue for the future climatic scenario of a reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The catastrophic drainage of the Laurentide meltwater lakes through the Hudson Bay and into the Labrador Sea, that occurred ca. 8.47 kyr B.P., caused the slowdown of the AMOC around 8.2 kyr B.P.. Subsequently, reduced heat transfer towards Europe triggered a substantial decline in (winter) temperature and pronounced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in many regions of the northern hemisphere, especially the North Atlantic realm and Europe. Among the regions affected by the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event, the Eastern Mediterranean region is of particular interest for both past and future climate developments. Traditionally characterized as a region highly sensitive to variations in the climate systems of the high and low latitudes, abrupt climate changes have the potential to strongly alter atmospheric circulation patterns and thus precipitation distribution in the region that may have severe socioeconomical consequences. The analysis of stable hydrogen (δD) and oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in precipitation is an excellent tool to trace changes in atmospheric circulation. Here, we present a comparative study of δD and δ18O in precipitation from the Eastern Mediterranean region both in a present day scenario and during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event. We analyze the influences of topography, air mass trajectory, climate and seasonality among others the stable isotopic compositions of meteoric waters from the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP), Turkey, in order to create a first-order template which may serve as a reference against which paleoenvironmental proxy data may be more accurately interpreted and tested. Further, we employ a multiproxy approach on the early Holocene peat deposits of the classical site of Tenaghi Philippon (TP), NE Greece, to investigate paleoenvironmental responses to northern hemisphere cooling during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event and aim to determine changes atmospheric circulation from δD of leaf wax n-alkanes (δDwax).
Based on δD and δ18O data from more than 480 surface water samples from the CAP, we characterize moisture sources affecting the net isotopic budget of precipitation, manifesting in a systematic north-south difference in near-sea level moisture compositions. Rainout, induced by the major orographic barriers of the plateau, the Pontic Mountains to the north and the Taurus Mountains to the south, strongly shape the modern patterns of δD and δ18O. Stable isotope data from the semi-arid plateau interior provide clear evidence for an evaporitic regime that drastically affects surface water compositions. Strong evaporative enrichment contrasts rainfall patterns along the plateau margins, in part obfuscating the effects of topography and air mass trajectory.
Consequently, in order to address possible influences of evaporation on δD and δ18O in paleoprecipitation from TP, we analyze n-alkane abundances and distributions along with stable carbon isotope compositions of total organic carbon (δ13CTOC) and palynological data to estimate surface moisture conditions during the early Holocene (ca. 8.7 - 7.5 kyr B.P.) and especially during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event. A period of relatively dry surface conditions from ca. 8.7 to 8.2 kyr B.P., indicated by low values of the 'aquatic index' (Paq ) and by elevated Average Chain Length (ACL) values, in concert with elevated δ13CTOC values, precedes the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event. The event itself is characterized by slightly wetter, more humid conditions, as suggested by an increase in Paq values as well as reduced ACL and δ13CTOC values between ca. 8.2 and 7.9 kyr B.P.. In the upper section of the core, a distinct change in paleohydrology becomes. A steep increase in Paq and a decrease in ACL values as well as variations in δ13CTOC from 7.9 kyr B.P. onwards imply considerably elevated surface moisture levels, likely caused by the increased activity of the karstic system of the surrounding mountains. Collectively, the biomarker proxies presented here, reveal a concise picture of changing moisture conditions at TP that is consistent with palynological data and provide detailed paleoenvironmental information for the analysis of δDwax as a paleoprecipitation proxy. The long-term decline in δDwax values characterizes the lower section of the core until ca. 8.2 kyr B.P.. The 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event itself is connected to two distinct positive hydrogen isotope excursions: a minor shift in δDwax around 8.2 kyr B.P. and a major shift in δDwax between ca. 8.1 and 8.0 kyr B.P.. The upper part of the section shows a progressive trend towards higher δDwax values. With no indication of increased evaporitic conditions at TP during the 8.2 kyr B.P. climatic event, as evident in biomarker proxies and pollen data, we link shifts in δDwax to changes in Mediterranean air mass trajectories supplying precipitation to northeastern Greece, with variations in the relative contributions of northerly derived, D-depleted moisture and southerly-derived, D-enriched moisture. Possible control mechanisms include changes in the influence of the Siberian High and differences in the influence of the African and Asian monsoon circulations on anticyclonic conditions in the Mediterranean region as well as regional inflow of moist air from the Aegean Sea.
We generated transgenic tomato plants with altered expression of heat stress transcription factor HsfA1. Plants with 10-fold overexpression of HsfA1 (OE plants) were characterized by a singleHsfA1 transgene cassette, whereas plants harboring a tandem inverted repeat of the cassette showed cosuppression (CS plants) by posttranscriptional silencing of the HsfA1 gene connected with formation of small interfering RNAs. Under normal growth conditions, major developmental parameters were similar for wild-type (WT), OE, and CS plants. However, CS plants and fruits were extremely sensitive to elevated temperatures, because heat stress-induced synthesis of chaperones and Hsfs was strongly reduced or lacking. Despite the complexity of the plant Hsf family with at least 17 members in tomato, HsfA1 has a unique function as master regulator for induced thermotolerance. Using transient reporter assays with mesophyll protoplasts from WT tomato, we demonstrated that plasmid-encoded HsfA1 and HsfA2 were well expressed. However, in CS protoplasts the cosuppression phenomenon was faithfully reproduced. Only transformation with HsfA2 expression plasmid led to normal expression of the transcription factor and reporter gene activation, whereas even high amounts of HsfA1 expression plasmids were silenced. Thermotolerance in CS protoplasts was restored by plasmid-borne HsfA2, resulting in expression of chaperones, thermoprotection of firefly luciferase, and assembly of heat stress granules.
The East African Rift System (EARS) was initiated in the Eocene epoch between 50 and 21 Ma probably due to the influence of mantle plumes that caused volcanism, flood basalts and rifting extensions in Ethiopa and the Afar region. As a result of magmatic intrusions and adiabatic decompression melting within the lithosphere caused by the impact of the Kenya plume, there was a southward propagation of the EARS of about 30 – 15 Ma from Ethiopia to Kenya, which coincide with the occurrence of volcanism. The EARS developed towards the south along the margins of the Tanzania Craton between 15 and 8 Ma. Previous findings of low-velocity anomalies within the upper mantle and the mantle transition zone indicate an upwelling of hot mantle material in the vicinity of the Afar region and the East African Rift. This study includes the analysis of P- and S-receiver functions in order to determine further impacts on the lithosphere from below. The aim was to determine the topographic undulations of further boundary layers and to identify their variability owing to the rifting processes and the formation of the EARS. The study area included the Tanzania Craton and the surrounding rift branches of the East African Rift System.
The region of the Rwenzori Mountains can be analysed in detail because of the large dataset of the RiftLink project. The use of the P-receiver function technique and the H-K stacking method enabled to determine different vP /vS ratios depending on the tectonic setting in the Rwenzori region: Rift shoulders (vP /vS =1.74), Albert Rift segment (vP /vS =1.80), Edward Rift segment (vP /vS =1.87) and Rwenzori Mountains (vP /vS =1.86). To determine the topography of the Moho, it is necessary to take into account the thickness of the sedimentary layer, the surface topography, the azimuthal variations in crustal thickness and the impact of local anomalies. After correcting these effects on the Moho depths, significant variations in Moho topography could be determined. The Moho depths range from 29 to 39 km beneath the rift shoulders of the Albertine Rift. Within the rift valley, the crustal thickness varies between 25 – 31 km in the Edward Rift segment and 22 – 30 km in the Albert Rift segment. An averaged crustal thickness of about 26 km within the rift valley indicates the lack of the crustal root beneath the Rwenzoris. Similar variations in crustal thickness were determined by using an automatic procedure for analysing S-receiver functions that was developed in this study.
The S-receiver functions are created by applying a rotation criterion in order to rotate the Z, N and E components into the L, Q and T components. It is necessary to perform trial rotations using different incident and azimuth angles to determine the correct rotation angles. The latter are identified by the use of the rotation criterion, including the amplitude ratio of the converted Moho signal to the direct S/SKS-wave signal. The L component is rotated correctly in the direction of the incident shear wave in the case of the maximum amplitude ratio. After analysing the frequency content of the receiver functions in order to sort out harmonic and long-periodic traces, the individual Moho signals are checked for consistency in order to remove atypic signals. To increase the signal-to-noise ratios on the traces, the S-receiver functions are stacked. For this purpose, the signals of the direct shear waves must originate from similar epicenters. On the basis of similar ray paths, the receiver functions show comparable waveforms and converted signals. To perform the stacking procedure, it is necessary to merge the datasets of the adjacent stations in order to obtain a sufficient number of receiver functions. This analysis is based on the assumption that the incident seismic waves arriving at the adjacent stations penetrate to some extent the same underground structures in the case of similar wave propagation paths. This approach accounts for the fact that the converted signals do not result exclusively from the piercing points at the boundary layers. Further signals originate from the conversions at the boundary layer within the Fresnel Zone. The piercing points are derived from the significant signals in the receiver functions. Depending on the order of arrival of the converted phases on the traces, the signals are attributed to the theoretical discontinuities DIS1, DIS2, DIS3 and DIS4. However, partly due to the low signal-to-noise ratios on the traces, it is difficult to identify the real conversions on the traces and to ensure that the converted signals are attributed to the correct boundary layers. For this reason, it is necessary to check the consistency of the conversion depths among each other. In the case of inconsistent conversion depths, the corresponding signals are either adjusted to another seismic boundary layer or removed from the dataset. To verify the functionality of the automatic procedure and to determine the resolvability with respect to two boundary layers, several models are tested including horizontal and dipping discontinuities. To resolve distinct discontinuities, their depths must differ by at least 60 km, otherwise, due to similar depth ranges of the different boundary layers, the converted signals cannot be separated from each other. As a consequence, the converted signals that originate from different discontinuities are attributed to a single one. Further tests including break-off edges of seismic discontinuities are performed to check the attributions of the converted signals to the discontinuities. Owing to the varying number of boundary layers, the converted signals cannot be attributed to the discontinuities according to the order of their arrivals on the traces. It is necessary to correct their attributions to the seismic discontinuities in order to resolve the boundary layers.
The crust-mantle boundary and further discontinuities within the lithospheric mantle are investigated by applying this automatic procedure. Depending on the tectonic setting, the conversion depths of the Moho range from about 30 – 45 km beneath the western rift shoulder to 20 – 35 km within the rift valley up to 30 – 40 km beneath the eastern rift shoulder. The long wavelengths of the shear waves hamper the correct identification of the converted phases in the S-receiver functions. With respect to the relative differences in conversion depth, the topographic undulations of the crust-mantle boundary are consistent with the Moho depths derived from P-receiver functions. In contrast to the Rwenzori region, it is difficult to resolve completely the trend of the Moho in the remaining area of the East African Rift due to the small dataset provided by IRIS. The results exibit an increase in crustal thickness to up to 45 km in the region of the Cenozoic volcanics such as Virunga, Kivu, Rungwe and Kenya. The greatest Moho depths of more than 50 km are located near Mount Kilimanjaro. In addition to the Moho, the analysis of the S-receiver functions revealed two further boundary layers at depths of 60 – 140 km and 110 – 260 km, which are associated with a mid-lithospheric discontinuity and the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, respectively. The shallowest conversion depths of the LAB are focussed to small-scale regions within the rift branches, namely the northern Albertine Rift, the Chyulu Hills and the Mozambique Belt, which are located around the Tanzania Craton. The larger thickness of the lithosphere beneath the cratonic terrain indicates that the Tanzania Craton is not significantly eroded. However, there are indications that the lithosphere beneath the craton and the rift branches is penetrated by ascending asthenospheric melts to depths of up to 140 and 60 km, respectively. The top of the ascending melts is associated with the occurrence of the mid-lithospheric discontinuity. The shallowest conversion depths of this boundary layer (60 – 90 km) are related to the rifted areas of the EARS and the Cenozoic volcanic provinces, which are located along the Albertine Rift, the Kenya Rift and the Rukwa-Malawi rift zones. The deepest conversion depths of up to 140 km are related to the Rwenzori Belt, the Ugandan Basement Complex and the interior of the Tanzania Craton.
Over the last several decades, spinel-structured minerals with the chemical formula AB2O4 (where A and B stand for divalent and trivalent cations, respectively) have attracted more and more attention, particularly with regards to their breakdown at high pressures and temperatures and the nature of the so-called "post-spinel" phases. Spinel-structured phases with different endmember compositions, like magnetite (Fe3O4), hercynite (FeAl2O4) or spinel (MgAl2O4), are known to breakdown differently at high pressure-temperature conditions (e.g., Akaogi et al. 1999; Schollenbruch et al. 2010; Woodland et al. 2012). Such phases are of particular interest when they incorporate ferric (Fe3+) and ferrous (Fe2+) cations as this makes their stability sensitive to redox conditions. Since magnetite and magnesioferrite (MgFe3+ 2O4) have been found as inclusions in diamond (e.g., Stachel et al. 1998; Harte et al. 1999; Wirth et al. 2014; Palot et al. 2016; Jacob et al. 2016), understanding their phase relations is important for setting constraints on the conditions of their formation.
This study aimed to experimentally investigate the phase relations of Fe-Mg spinel-structured phases at conditions of the deep upper mantle and transition zone. Exploring the stability of new post-spinel phases and their characterization were also major goals of this study. Approaching a pyrolitic mantle composition by adding amounts of SiO2 in the system allowed constraints on the relevance of Fe-Mg post-spinel phases coexisting with mantle silicates to be made. ...
Indian Ocean came into existence with the breakup of Gondwana in the Mesozoic era. The presence of complex aseismic ridges and plateaus in the Indian Ocean makes it the least-understood of all the oceans. Mascarene Plateau, apart from Central Indian Ridge (CIR) running north-south between 2◦N and 25◦S in the Indian Ocean, is one such complex feature in the Indian Ocean that consists of Seychelles microcontinent in the north and the volcanic islands of Mauritius, La Réunion and Rodrigues in the south.
Most of the previous seismological studies on the islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Seychelles are restricted as each of them has only one operational permanent station. In the current study, I present the results obtained from the investigations of the seismological data obtained from the deployment of temporary seismic network on Mauritius (November, 2012–August, 2014) and Seychelles (March, 2013–March, 2015) under Réunion Hotspot and Upper Mantle–Réunions Unterer Mantel (RHUM–RUM) project and later in Rodrigues (September, 2014–June, 2016) under a collaborative project between Goethe-Universität, Frankfurt, Germany and Mauritius Oceanography Institute (MOI), Mauritius. Additional data from the permanent stations were also used in this study. The investigations and results are presented under three themes, namely: (1) crustal structure beneath Mauritius, (2) upper mantle anisotropy below Mauritius, Rodrigues and Seychelles and (3) intraplate seismicity in the Rodrigues–CIR region.
Upper mantle anisotropy in south-west Indian Ocean region are very limited, especially from the islands of Mauritius and Rodrigues. With the new data from the seismic stations deployed in Mauritius and Seychelles, under RHUM–RUM, and permanent stations in Rodrigues, I constrain the upper mantle flow pattern beneath these islands. From the joint-splitting analysis, I obtain fast-polarisation direction (φ) dominant in N80◦E and delay time (δt) of ≈0.85 s for Mauritius and φ tending east–west in Rodrigues with δt of ≈1.1 s. Parabolic asthenospheric flow model explains the orientation of the fast-polarisation direction beneath Mauritius, whereas deep mantle circulation patterns best explain the horizontal alignment of the fast-polarisation direction in Rodrigues. From Seychelles data, the results show φ trending NE and δt ≈0.74 s, even for the island close to Amirante Ridge, suggesting an asthenospheric deformation induced by relative motion between the plate and the deep mantle flow.
It has recently been suggested that the volcanic island of Mauritius may be underlain by a remnant of continental origin termed “Mauritia.” To constrain the crustal thickness beneathMauritius, I analysed data from 11 land stations, 10 of which were deployed recently under the RHUM–RUM project. From the recordings, I obtained 382 P-receiver functions. On the obtained receiver functions, I applied the H–κ stacking technique and derived the crustal thickness of ≈10–15 km. I observe a considerable variation in the VP/VS ratio caused by a lack of clear multiples. Using forward modelling of receiver functions, I show that the lack of clear multiples can be explained by a transitional Moho, where the velocity increases gradually. The modelling further indicates that the thickness of this gradient zone is estimated to be ≈10 km. I argue that my findings suggest oceanic crust thickened by crustal underplating due to the mantle plume currently located beneath La Réunion.
Seismicity around Rodrigues Island is generally associated with events recorded by the global networks along the CIR. Using seismological array techniques on the data collected by the temporary deployment of seismic array on Rodrigues Island for a period of 22 months (September, 2014–June 2016), 62 new events were located, which were not reported by any global network. Determination of backazimuth and apparent velocity were performed by applying array methods in the time-domain instead of the more conventional frequency-domain analysis. Event distances were calculated using a 1-D velocity model and the measured travel-time differences between S- and P-wave arrivals. Local magnitudes of the events were obtained by removing the velocity response from the seismographs and then convolving with Wood–Anderson transfer function to obtain ground motion in nanometers. Most of the newly-detected events are located off the ridge axis and can be classified as intraplate events. Three different seismic clusters were observed around the island. Most of the events were localised in the north-east of Rodrigues at a distance of ≈138 km from the reference station. A distinguishable swarm of earthquakes was observed on the west of the spreading segment from March to April 2015. The local magnitudes (ML) of the events varied between 1.6 and 3.7.
Eisnukleierende Partikel (INP) sind ein wichtiger Bestandteil des atmosphärischen Aerosols. Trotz ihrer geringen Konzentrationen in der Atmosphäre haben sie Einfluss auf die Bildung von Eiskristallen und auf den Niederschlag. Durch Änderungen in Anzahlkonzentration oder anderer Eigenschaften der INP können sich Wolkenparameter wie Lebensdauer und Tröpfchendichte ändern, was weiter eine Ursache für Änderungen im globalen Strahlungshaushalt sein kann.
Der Anteil zum globalen Strahlungshaushalt durch „Wolken-Anpassungen aufgrund von Aerosolen“, stellt weiterhin die größte Unsicherheit des Strahlungsantriebes dar. Aus diesem Grund sind Messungen und Studien über atmosphärische Aerosole und INP notwendig. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde der Eiskeimzähler FINCH („fast ice nucleus chamber“) grundlegend überholt und für Messungen von INP optimiert. FINCH ist ein in-situ Eiskeimzähler der durch Mischung unterschiedlicher Luftströme eine Übersättigung der Probeluft mit Wasserdampf erzeugt, um auf diese Weise die zu untersuchenden Aerosolpartikel zu Eiskristallen wachsen zu lassen. Am Ende einer Wachstumskammer werden die Partikel durch eine Optik, dem FINCH-OPS, anhand von Streueigenschaften klassifiziert und ausgewertet. Um FINCH im erwarteten Umfang benutzen zu können, wurden am F-OPS der Laser und die zur Detektion des Streulichts benutzen Photomultiplier ersetzt. Weiter wurde die Software zur Detektion der Partikel neu entwickelt. Durch diese Änderungen ist es möglich Partikelanzahl, Partikelgröße sowie eine Information über die Form der Partikel abzuleiten. Über einen weiteren Photomultiplier im F-OPS ist es zudem möglich eine Information über Fluoreszenz des Partikels zu gewinnen, um so auf einen biologischen Ursprung des Partikels zu schließen. Vorangegangene Probleme durch elektromagnetische Einstrahlung und dadurch entstandene Inkonsistenzen während Messungen konnten im Rahmen dieser Arbeit identifiziert und ausgeschlossen werden. Ebenfalls konnten die zur Flusskühlung benutzen Wärmetaucher als Ursache für Verunreinigungen und Kontamination ausgemacht werden. Auch dieser, für Messungen ungeeignete Zustand, wurde im Rahmen dieser Arbeit behoben.
Ausführliche Charakterisierungsmessungen konnte die Funktionsfähigkeit des F-OPS, als einzelnes Messgerät ohne FINCH-Kammer, belegen. Durch Messungen mit einer steuerbaren Lichtquelle in der Optik konnte zudem die elektrische Verarbeitung sowie die Zählqualität der Optik verifiziert werden. Weiter kann durch diese Experimente gezeigt werden, dass mit dem F-OPS größenaufgelöst gemessen werden kann.
Auch in den ersten Streulichtexperimenten mit Testaerosol kann die Funktionsfähigkeit der Optik gezeigt werden. Für Partikelgröße von Dp > 400 nm wird eine Zähleffizienz von 25% eines TSI 3025 CPCs erreicht. Die über den F-OPS abgeleitete Partikelgröße kann durch Messungen mit monodispersen Aerosolpartikeln und einer parallelen Messung mit einem TSI 3330 OPS parametrisiert werden. Weiter kann die Fluoreszenz von ausgewählten Referenzstoffen gezeigt werden.
Im Betrieb von F-OPS hinter der FINCH-Kammer, also FINCH als Komplettsystem, wurden weitere Charakterisierungsmessungen durchgeführt. Es wurde festgestellt, dass die Anzahlkonzentration der Partikel nach Schließen eines Ventils exponentiell abfällt. Die Partikel folgen demnach nicht nur einem laminaren Fluss durch die Kammer. 50% der Partikel haben nach ca. 13 s die Kammer verlassen. Auch wurde ermittelt, dass ca. 40% der Partikel in der Kammer verloren gehen.
Erste Aktivierungsexperimente zeigen, dass Eispartikel in der Kammer auf eine Größe von Dp > 6 µm anwachsen. Durch Nullfiltermessungen in Aktivierungsphasen, sowie Ändern des zur Aktivierung notwendigen feuchten Flusses, wird zudem gezeigt, dass die Aktivierung der INP durch Mischung erfolgt und außerdem keine Fremdpartikel aktiviert werden. Die neue Steuerung der Kammer lässt es zu Temperaturen in etwa einer Stunde gezielt anzusteuern. Es wird gezeigt, dass Schwankungen in der Sättigung hauptsächlich durch Temperaturphänomene beeinflusst werden.
Abschließend wurden beispielhaft Laborexperimente mit Snomax© durchgeführt, welche sehr gut mit Werten aus der Literatur verglichen werden konnten. Auch eine erste Außenluftmessung am Jungfraujoch (Schweiz) wird in dieser Arbeit präsentiert. Die gemessenen INP-Konzentrationen im gezeigten Zeitraum liegen zwischen 1,4 ± 4,1 L-1 und 53 ± 30 L-1 und entsprechen somit wiederum bekannten Literaturwerten.
Size-resolved measurements of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and hygroscopicity were conducted at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in the central Amazon Basin over a full seasonal cycle (Mar 2014–Feb 2015). In a companion part 1 paper, we presented an in-depth CCN characterization based on annually as well as seasonally averaged time intervals and discuss different parametrization strategies to represent the Amazonian CCN cycling in modelling studies (M. Pöhlker et al., 2016b). The present part 2 study analyzes the aerosol and CCN variability in original time resolution and, thus, resolves aerosol advection and transformation for the following case studies, which represent the most characteristic states of the Amazonian atmosphere:
1. Near-pristine (NP) conditions, defined as the absence of detectable black carbon (< 0.01 µg m−3), showed their highest occurrence (up to 30 %) in the wet season (i.e., Mar–May). On average, the NP episodes are characterized by a bimodal aerosol size distribution (strong Aitken mode: DAit = 70 nm, NAit = ~ 200 cm−3 vs. weaker accumulation mode: Dacc = 170 nm, Nacc = ~ 60 cm−3), a mostly organic particle composition, and relatively low hygroscopicity levels (κAit = 0.12 vs. κacc = 0.18). The NP CCN efficiency spectrum shows that the CCN population is sensitive to changes in supersaturation (S) over a wide S range.
2. Long-range transport (LRT) conditions frequently mix Saharan dust, African combustion smoke, and sea spray aerosols into the Amazonian wet season atmosphere. The LRT episodes (i.e., Feb–Apr) are characterized by an accumulation mode dominated size distribution (DAit = 80 nm, NAit = 120 cm−3 vs. Dacc = 180 nm, Nacc = 300 cm−3), a clearly increased abundance of dust and salt compounds, and relatively high hygroscopicity levels (κAit = 0.18, κacc = 0.34). The LRT CCN efficiency spectrum shows that the CCN population is highly sensitive to changes in S in the low S regime.
3. Biomass burning (BB) conditions dominate the Amazonian dry season. A selected characteristic BB episode shows a very strong accumulation mode (DAit = 70 nm, NAit = ~ 140 cm−3 vs. Dacc = 170 nm, Nacc = ~ 3400 cm−3), particles with very high organic fractions (> 90 %), and correspondingly low hygroscopicity levels (κAit = 0.14, κacc = 0.17). The BB CCN efficiency spectrum shows that the CCN population is highly sensitive to changes in S in the low S regime.
4. Mixed pollution conditions show the superposition of African (i.e., volcanic) and Amazonian (i.e., biomass burning) aerosol emissions during the dry season. The African aerosols showed a broad monomodal distribution (D = 130 nm, N = ~ 1300 cm−3), with very high sulfate fractions (20 %), and correspondingly high hygroscopicity (κAit = 0.14, κacc = 0.22). This was superimposed by fresh smoke from nearby fires with one strong mode (D = 113 nm, Nacc = ~ 2800 cm−3), an organic-dominated aerosol, and sharply decreased hygroscopicity (κAit = 0.10, κacc = 0.20). These conditions underline the rapidly changing pollution regimes with clear impacts on the aerosol and CCN properties.
Overall, this study provides detailed insights into the CCN cycling in relation to aerosol-cloud interaction in the vulnerable and climate-relevant Amazon region. The detailed analysis of aerosol and CCN key properties and particularly the extracted CCN efficiency spectra with the associated fit parameters provide a basis for an in-depth analysis of aerosol-cloud interaction in the Amazon and beyond.
We developed a coupled regional climate system model based on the CCLM regional climate model. Within this model system, using OASIS3-MCT as a coupler, CCLM can be coupled to two land surface models (the Community Land Model (CLM) and VEG3D), the NEMO-MED12 regional ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea, two ocean models for the North and Baltic seas (NEMO-NORDIC and TRIMNP+CICE) and the MPI-ESM Earth system model.
We first present the different model components and the unified OASIS3-MCT interface which handles all couplings in a consistent way, minimising the model source code modifications and defining the physical and numerical aspects of the couplings. We also address specific coupling issues like the handling of different domains, multiple usage of the MCT library and exchange of 3-D fields.
We analyse and compare the computational performance of the different couplings based on real-case simulations over Europe. The usage of the LUCIA tool implemented in OASIS3-MCT enables the quantification of the contributions of the coupled components to the overall coupling cost. These individual contributions are (1) cost of the model(s) coupled, (2) direct cost of coupling including horizontal interpolation and communication between the components, (3) load imbalance, (4) cost of different usage of processors by CCLM in coupled and stand-alone mode and (5) residual cost including i.a. CCLM additional computations.
Finally a procedure for finding an optimum processor configuration for each of the couplings was developed considering the time to solution, computing cost and parallel efficiency of the simulation. The optimum configurations are presented for sequential, concurrent and mixed (sequential+concurrent) coupling layouts. The procedure applied can be regarded as independent of the specific coupling layout and coupling details.
We found that the direct cost of coupling, i.e. communications and horizontal interpolation, in OASIS3-MCT remains below 7 % of the CCLM stand-alone cost for all couplings investigated. This is in particular true for the exchange of 450 2-D fields between CCLM and MPI-ESM. We identified remaining limitations in the coupling strategies and discuss possible future improvements of the computational efficiency.
The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.
Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human–water interface in hydrological models.
Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change
(2016)
Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.
The formation of secondary particles in the atmosphere accounts for more than half of global cloud condensation nuclei. Experiments at the CERN CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber have underlined the importance of ions for new particle formation, but quantifying their effect in the atmosphere remains challenging. By using a novel instrument setup consisting of two nano-particle counters, one of them equipped with an ion filter, we were able to further investigate the ion-related mechanisms of new particle formation. In autumn 2015, we carried out experiments at CLOUD on four systems of different chemical compositions involving monoterpenes, sulfuric acid, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia. We measured the influence of ions on the nucleation rates under precisely controlled and atmospherically relevant conditions. Our results indicate that ions enhance the nucleation process when the charge is necessary to stabilize newly formed clusters, i.e. in conditions where neutral clusters are unstable. For charged clusters that were formed by ion-induced nucleation, we were able to measure, for the first time, their progressive neutralization due to recombination with oppositely charged ions. A large fraction of the clusters carried a charge at 1.2 nm diameter. However, depending on particle growth rates and ion concentrations, charged clusters were largely neutralized by ion–ion recombination before they grew to 2.2 nm. At this size, more than 90 % of particles were neutral. In other words, particles may originate from ion-induced nucleation, although they are neutral upon detection at diameters larger than 2.2 nm. Observations at Hyytiälä, Finland, showed lower ion concentrations and a lower contribution of ion-induced nucleation than measured at CLOUD under similar conditions. Although this can be partly explained by the observation that ion-induced fractions decrease towards lower ion concentrations, further investigations are needed to resolve the origin of the discrepancy.
The CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) experiment at CERN is studying the nucleation and growth of aerosol particles under atmospheric conditions, and their activation into cloud droplets. A key feature of the CLOUD experiment is precise control of the experimental parameters. Temperature uniformity and stability in the chamber are important since many of the processes under study are sensitive to temperature and also to contaminants that can be released from the stainless steel walls by upward temperature fluctuations. The air enclosed within the 3 m CLOUD chamber is equipped with several arrays (strings) of high precision, fast-response thermometers to measure its temperature. Here we present a study of the air temperature uniformity inside the CLOUD chamber under various experimental conditions. Measurements were performed under calibration conditions and run conditions, which are distinguished by the flow rate of fresh air and trace gases entering the chamber: 20 l/min and up to 210 l/min, respectively. During steady-state calibration runs between −70 °C and +20 °C, the air temperature uniformity is better than +/−0.06 °C in the radial direction and +/−0.1 °C in the vertical direction. Larger non-uniformities are present during experimental runs, depending on the temperature control of the make-up air and trace gases (since some trace gases require elevated temperatures until injection into the chamber). The temperature stability is a few times 0.01 °C over periods of several hours during either calibration or steady-state run conditions. During rapid adiabatic expansions to activate cloud droplets and ice particles, the chamber walls are up to 10 °C warmer than the enclosed air. This results in larger non-uniformities while the air returns to its equilibrium temperature with time constant of about 200 s.
Evaluation of radiation components in a global freshwater model with station-based observations
(2016)
In many hydrological models, the amount of evapotranspired water is calculated using the potential evapotranspiration (PET) approach. The main driver of several PET approaches is net radiation, whose downward components are usually obtained from meteorological input data, whereas the upward components are calculated by the model itself. Thus, uncertainties can be large due to both the input data and model assumptions. In this study, we compare the radiation components of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model, driven by two meteorological input datasets and two radiation setups from ERA-Interim reanalysis. We assess the performance with respect to monthly observations provided by the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). The assessment is done for the global land area and specifically for energy/water limited regions. The results indicate that there is no optimal radiation input throughout the model variants, but standard meteorological input datasets perform better than those directly obtained by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the key variable net radiation. The low number of observations for some radiation components, as well as the scale mismatch between station observations and 0.5° × 0.5° grid cell size, limits the assessment.
The Earth's future depends on how we manage the manifold risks of climate change (CC). It is state-of-the-art to assume that risk reduction requires participatory management involving a broad range of stakeholders and scientists. However, there is still little knowledge about the optimal design of participatory climate change risk management processes (PRMPs), in particular with respect to considering the multitude of substantial uncertainties that are relevant for PRMPs. To support the many local to regional PRMPs that are necessary for a successful global-scale reduction of CC risks, we present a roadmap for designing such transdisciplinary knowledge integration processes. The roadmap suggests ways in which uncertainties can be comprehensively addressed within a PRMP. We discuss the concept of CC risks and their management and propose an uncertainty framework that distinguishes epistemic, ontological, and linguistic uncertainty as well as ambiguity. Uncertainties relevant for CC risk management are identified. Communicative and modeling methods that support social learning as well as the development of risk management strategies are proposed for each of six phases of a PRMP. Finally, we recommend how to evaluate PRMPs as such evaluations and their publication are paramount for achieving a reduction of CC risks.
The present PhD thesis comprises structural geology, petrographic and geochronological investiga-tions on crystalline rocks of the Uppermost Unit in the southern Aegean realm. Studies were carried out in three areas: (1) on the island of Anafi, (2) in the area west of Melambes in central Crete and (3) between the villages of Pefkos, Kalami and Sykologos in the municipality of Viannos in eastern Crete.
The Uppermost Unit forms together with the underlying, non-metamorphic Pindos Unit the upper nappe system of the Cretan nappe pile that, unlike the units of the lower nappe system, was not affected by Late Oligocene to Early Miocene subduction-related metamorphism. The upper nappe system must therefore have been at upper levels of the lithosphere in the Late Oligocene. This is of particular im-portance when reconstructing the tectonometamorphic evolution of the Uppermost Unit. The Upper-most Unit is very heterogeneous in composition and is subdivided into several subunits, which differ mainly in their lithological composition and the degree of metamorphic overprint. Usually, it is subdi-vided into several low-grade metamorphic subunits and one high-grade metamorphic subunit. Within the scope of this PhD thesis, three of these subunits were examined; (1) the anchimetamorphic Arvi Unit, (2) the newly described Greenschist Unit and (3) the Asterousia Crystalline Complex (ACC).
The analyses conducted during this PhD thesis include: (1) structural geology investigations in the field, (2) microstructural and petrographic analyses on thin sections, (3) radiometric dating of zircons using isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (ID-TIMS) and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS), (4) electron microprobe (EMP) analysis, (5) quartz texture analysis using electron-backscattered diffraction (EBSD), (6) semiquantitative analysis of min-eral phases using X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), (7) analysis of the modal composition of intrusive rocks applying point counting on thin sections and (8) X-ray microtomography (micro-CT) on chias-tolite hornfels.
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Erstmals trägt dieses nationale Assessment den Forschungsstand zum Klimawandel umfassend für alle Themenbereiche und gesellschaftlichen Sektoren zusammen. Womit müssen wir in Deutschland rechnen, welche Auswirkungen werden die Klimaveränderungen auf Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft haben, und wie können wir uns wappnen? 126 Autoren aus ganz Deutschland äußern sich zu Themen wie bereits beobachtete und zukünftige Veränderungen, Wetterkatastrophen und deren Folgen, den Projektionen für die Zukunft, den Risiken sowie möglichen Anpassungsstrategien.
Die Autoren stellen in verständlicher Sprache den aktuellen Forschungsstand dar und veranschaulichen die wichtigsten Gedanken in Grafiken und Tabellen. Alle Texte wurden mehrfach wissenschaftlich begutachtet. Klimawandel in Deutschland ist die erste Gesamtschau zu dem Themenkomplex, benennt offene Fragestellungen und liefert eine Grundlage für Entscheidungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Klimawandel.
Deutschland reiht sich damit ein in die Liste von Ländern wie die Vereinigten Staaten, Österreich und Großbritannien, in denen derartige Berichte bereits vorliegen.
Binary nucleation of sulphuric acid-water particles is expected to be an important process in the free troposphere at low temperatures. SAWNUC (Sulphuric Acid Water Nucleation) is a model of binary nucleation that is based on laboratory measurements of the binding energies of sulphuric acid and water in charged and neutral clusters. Predictions of SAWNUC are compared for the first time comprehensively with experimental binary nucleation data from the CLOUD chamber at European Organization for Nuclear Research. The experimental measurements span a temperature range of 208–292 K, sulphuric acid concentrations from 1·106 to 1·109 cm−3, and distinguish between ion-induced and neutral nucleation. Good agreement, within a factor of 5, is found between the experimental and modeled formation rates for ion-induced nucleation at 278 K and below and for neutral nucleation at 208 and 223 K. Differences at warm temperatures are attributed to ammonia contamination which was indicated by the presence of ammonia-sulphuric acid clusters, detected by an Atmospheric Pressure Interface Time of Flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. APi-TOF measurements of the sulphuric acid ion cluster distributions (math formula with i = 0, 1, ..., 10) show qualitative agreement with the SAWNUC ion cluster distributions. Remaining differences between the measured and modeled distributions are most likely due to fragmentation in the APi-TOF. The CLOUD results are in good agreement with previously measured cluster binding energies and show the SAWNUC model to be a good representation of ion-induced and neutral binary nucleation of sulphuric acid-water clusters in the middle and upper troposphere.
We performed an intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under four meteorological forcings among five global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conducted globally, the Missouri–Mississippi and Green–Colorado Rivers were chosen as case-study sites in this study. The hydrological models incorporate generic schemes of dam operation, not specific to a certain dam. We examined river discharge on a longitudinal section of river channels to investigate the effects of dams on simulated discharge, especially at the seasonal time scale. We found that the magnitude of dam regulation differed considerably among the hydrological models. The difference was attributable not only to dam operation schemes but also to the magnitude of simulated river discharge flowing into dams. That is, although a similar algorithm of dam operation schemes was incorporated in different hydrological models, the magnitude of dam regulation substantially differed among the models. Intermodel discrepancies tended to decrease toward the lower reaches of these river basins, which means model dependence is less significant toward lower reaches. These case-study results imply that, intermodel comparisons of river discharge should be made at different locations along the river's course to critically examine the performance of hydrological models because the performance can vary with the locations.
Land surface and hydrologic models (LSM/HM) are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from 1-10 km in catchment-scale applications to over 50 km in global-scale applications. Application of the same model structure at different spatial scales requires that the model estimates similar fluxes independent of the model resolution and fulfills a flux-matching condition across scales. An analysis of state-of-the-art LSMs and HMs reveals that most do not have consistent and realistic parameter fields for land surface geophysical properties. Multiple experiments with the mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB and WaterGAP models are conducted to demonstrate the pitfalls of poor parameterization practices currently used in most operational models, which are insufficient to satisfy the flux-matching condition. These examples demonstrate that J. Dooge’s 1982 statement on the unsolved problem of parameterization in these models remains true. We provide a short review of existing parameter regionalization techniques and discuss a method for obtaining seamless hydrological predictions of water fluxes and states across multiple spatial resolutions. The multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique is a practical and robust method that provides consistent (seamless) parameter and flux fields across scales. A general model protocol is presented to describe how MPR can be applied to a specific model, with an example of this application using the PCR-GLOBWB model. Applying MPR to PCR-GLOBWB substantially improves the flux-matching condition. Estimation of evapotranspiration without MPR at 5 arcmin and 30 arcmin spatial resolutions for the Rhine river basin results in a difference of approximately 29%. Applying MPR reduce this difference to 9%. For total soil water, the differences without and with MPR are 25% and 7%, respectively.
Land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs) are used at diverse spatial resolutions ranging from catchment-scale (1–10 km) to global-scale (over 50 km) applications. Applying the same model structure at different spatial scales requires that the model estimates similar fluxes independent of the chosen resolution, i.e., fulfills a flux-matching condition across scales. An analysis of state-of-the-art LSMs and HMs reveals that most do not have consistent hydrologic parameter fields. Multiple experiments with the mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP models demonstrate the pitfalls of deficient parameterization practices currently used in most operational models, which are insufficient to satisfy the flux-matching condition. These examples demonstrate that J. Dooge's 1982 statement on the unsolved problem of parameterization in these models remains true. Based on a review of existing parameter regionalization techniques, we postulate that the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) technique offers a practical and robust method that provides consistent (seamless) parameter and flux fields across scales. Herein, we develop a general model protocol to describe how MPR can be applied to a particular model and present an example application using the PCR-GLOBWB model. Finally, we discuss potential advantages and limitations of MPR in obtaining the seamless prediction of hydrological fluxes and states across spatial scales.
Chemical reduction-oxidation mechanisms within mantle rocks link to the terrestrial carbon cycle by influencing the depth at which magmas can form, their composition, and ultimately the chemistry of gases released into the atmosphere. The oxidation state of the uppermost mantle has been widely accepted to be unchanged over the past 3800 m.y., based on the abundance of redox-sensitive elements in greenstone belt–associated samples of different ages. However, the redox signal in those rocks may have been obscured by their complex origins and emplacement on continental margins. In contrast, the source and processes occurring during decompression melting at spreading ridges are relatively well constrained. We retrieve primary redox conditions from metamorphosed mid-oceanic ridge basalts (MORBs) and picrites of various ages (ca. 3000–550 Ma), using V/Sc as a broad redox proxy. Average V/Sc values for Proterozoic suites (7.0 ± 1.4, 2σ, n = 6) are similar to those of modern MORB (6.8 ± 1.6), whereas Archean suites have lower V/Sc (5.2 ± 0.4, n = 5). The lower Archean V/Sc is interpreted to reflect both deeper melt extraction from the uppermost mantle, which becomes more reduced with depth, and an intrinsically lower redox state. The pressure-corrected oxygen fugacity (expressed relative to the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer, ΔFMQ, at 1 GPa) of Archean sample suites (ΔFMQ –1.19 ± 0.33, 2σ) is significantly lower than that of post-Archean sample suites, including MORB (ΔFMQ –0.26 ± 0.44). Our results imply that the reducing Archean atmosphere was in equilibrium with Earth’s mantle, and further suggest that magmatic gases crossed the threshold that allowed a build-up in atmospheric O2 levels ca. 3000 Ma, accompanied by the first “whiffs” of oxygen in sediments of that age.
We have developed and characterized the novel PTR3, a proton transfer reaction-time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-TOF) using a new gas inlet and an innovative reaction chamber design. The reaction chamber consists of a tripole operated with rf voltages generating an electric field only in the radial direction. An elevated electrical field is necessary to reduce clustering of primary hydronium (H3O+) and product ions with water molecules present in the sample gas. The axial movement of the ions is achieved by the sample gas flow only. Therefore, the new design allows a 30-fold longer reaction time and a 40-fold increase in pressure compared to standard PTR-TOF-MS. First calibration tests show sensitivities of up to 18000 counts per second/parts per billion and volume (cps/ppbv) at a mass resolution of >8000 m/Δm (fwhm). The new inlet using center-sampling through a critical orifice reduces wall losses of low volatility compounds. Therefore, the new PTR3 instrument is sensitive to VOC typically present in the ppbv range as well as to semivolatile organic compounds (SVOC) and even highly oxidized organic molecules (HOMs) present in the parts per quadrillion per volume (ppqv) range in the atmosphere.
Eiskeime (INP) sind Aerosolpartikel, die das Entstehen von Eiskristallen in der Atmosphäre zwischen 0 und -37°C ermöglichen, indem sie die zur Ausbildung der Eisphase nötige Energie gegenüber einem reinen Wassersystem stark herabsetzen. Dabei sind aktive Stellen auf der Oberfläche dieser Partikel für die erste Nukleation von Eis verantwortlich. In der Folge können die Eiskristalle zulasten von verdunstenden Wasserdampfmolekülen und Wassertröpfchen weiter anwachsen. Über Eismultiplikationsprozesse zersplittern und vervielfältigen sich die Eiskristalle und wachsen über Bereifung schließlich zu einer kritischen Größe heran, wodurch sie als Niederschlag zu Boden fallen können. Auch wenn der Anteil der zur heterogenen Eisnukleation fähigen Aerosole vergleichsweise gering ist, spielen INP eine entscheidende Rolle für die Entwicklung von Niederschlag und nehmen Einfluss auf Strahlungsprozesse, indem sie auf die Phase der Wolken und damit auf deren Strahlungseigenschaften einwirken. Viele Fragen im Forschungsgebiet der heterogenen Eisnukleation sind jedoch weiterhin nicht hinreichend genau geklärt. Ohne eine verbesserte Kenntnis von Konzentrationen, geographischer und vertikaler Verteilung, sowie zeitlicher Variation, Quellen und Natur von INP, sind noch vorhandene Wissenslücken im Strahlungsantrieb durch Wechselwirkungen von Aerosolen und Wolken nur zu einem gewissem Grad zu reduzieren. Dies ist nötig, um aktuelle Beobachtungsdaten der sich erwärmenden Atmosphäre besser verstehen und die zukünftigen Änderungen des Klimas sicherer vorhersagen zu können. In dieser Arbeit wird die Vakuumdiffusionskammer FRIDGE verwendet, um atmosphärische INP-Konzentrationen zu bestimmen. Aerosolpartikel werden dabei in einem ersten Schritt auf einem Silicium-Probenträger elektrostatisch niedergeschlagen. Die Effizienz des Sammelprozesses, also der Anteil der Partikel die tatsächlich auf dem Si-Substrat abgeschieden werden, wurde mittels zweier unabhängiger Methoden auf etwa 60% bestimmt. In einem zweiten Mess-Schritt werden die Proben in FRIDGE typischen Bedingungen von Mischphasenwolken ausgesetzt, wodurch Eiskristalle an den INP aktiviert werden und im Verlauf einer Messung anwachsen. Eine Kamera beobachtet die durch das Eiswachstum entstehenden Helligkeitsänderungen auf dem dunklen Probensubstrat. Die Kriterien, wann ein Objekt als Eiskristall identifiziert und gezählt wird, mussten im Rahmen dieser Arbeit neu entwickelt werden. In der zu Beginn der Arbeit vorgefundenen Einstellung hatte bereits eine sehr geringe Helligkeitsänderung, wie sie durch das hygroskopische Wachstum von Aerosolpartikeln hervorgerufen wird, zu Signalen geführt, die fälschlicherweise als Eiskristalle gezählt wurden. Das reevaluierte Messverfahren von FRIDGE wurde im Zuge der FIN-02 Kampagne in einem groß angelegten Laborexperiment an der AIDA Wolkenkammer mit zahlreichen anderen INP-Zählern aus der ganzen Welt verglichen. Für den Großteil der Messungen der untersuchten Modell-Aerosoltypen konnte eine zufriedenstellende Übereinstimmung mit den anderen Instrumenten erzielt werden. In einer einmonatigen Feldmesskampagne im östlichen Mittelmeerraum konnten die ersten INP-Messungen an Bord eines unbemannten Flugzeugs durchgeführt werden. Während der Kampagne auf Zypern wurden mehrere Fälle von transportiertem Saharastaub beprobt, in denen die INP-Konzentration maßgeblich erhöht war. Lidar-Beobachtungen und ein Staubtransportmodell zeigten, dass sich das Maximum der Staubschichten zumeist in etwa 2-4 Kilometern Höhe befand. In der Höhe wurden INP-Konzentrationen gefunden, die im Mittel um einen Faktor 10 größer waren als auf Bodenniveau. Es wird gefolgert, dass INP-Messungen am Boden möglicherweise nur begrenzte Aussagekraft über die Situation nahe der Wolkenbildung besitzen. Im Rahmen BACCHUS-Projekts wurden zwischen August 2014 und Januar 2017 (mit Unterbrechungen) alle 1-2 Tage Proben an drei Reinluftstationen gesammelt (insgesamt über 900). Das INP-Messnetz mit einer geographischen Ausdehnung von der Arktis zum Äquator bestand aus Stationen in Spitzbergen, Martinique und im Amazonas. Die Station im brasilianischen Regenwald ist durch wechselnde Bedingungen von sauberer Regen- und verunreinigter Trockenzeit charakterisiert. In der Trockenzeit steigen die Partikelkonzentrationen durch starke Belastung aus Biomassenverbrennung um eine Größenordnung an; eine gleichzeitige Zunahme der INP-Konzentrationen konnte nicht beobachtet werden. Daraus kann vermutet werden, dass Partikel aus Feueremissionen keine ausgezeichneten Fähigkeiten zur Eisnukleation aufweisen. Die INP-Konzentrationen in der Karibik konnten mit dem Jahresgang von transportieren Saharastaub in Verbindung gebracht werden. In der Arktis wurden die niedrigsten INP-Konzentrationen der drei Stationen beobachtet. Zum Zeitpunkt des Erstellens dieser Arbeit können die determinierenden Einflussfaktoren, sowie der anthropogene Einfluss zur Zeit des arktischen Dunstes noch nicht abschließend geklärt werden.
The Global Irrigation Model (GIM) is used within the framework of the global hydrological model WaterGAP to calculate monthly irrigation crop water use. Results on a 0.5 degrees grid include, consumption (ICU) and, via division by irrigation efficiencies, water withdrawal (IWU). The model distinguishes up to two cropping periods of rice and non-rice crops, each grown for 150 days, using a grid of area equipped for irrigation (AEI). Historical development of AEI and fraction of area actually irrigated (AAI) was previously considered via scaling of cell-specific results with country-specific factors for each year. In this study, GIM was adapted to use the new Historical Irrigation Data set (HID) with cell-specific AEI for 14 time slices between 1900 and 2005. AEI grids were temporally interpolated, and using the optional grid of AAI/AEI, results for years 1901-2014 were generated (runs "HID-ACT"). Thus, new installation or abandonment of irrigation infrastructure in new grid cells can be represented in a spatially explicit manner. For evaluated years 1910, 1960, 1995, and 2005, ICU from HID-ACT was superior to country-specific scaled results (run "HID-ACTHIST") in representing historical development of the spatial pattern. Compared to US state-level reference data, spatial patterns were better, while country totals were not always better. For calculating the cropping periods, 30-years climate means are needed, the choice of which is relevant. Four chosen periods before 1981-2010 all resulted in considerable, pertaining changes of ICU spatial pattern, and various percent changes in country totals. This might be because of already present climate change.
This study examines the urban heat island (UHI) of Brussels, for both current (2000–2009) and projected future (2060–2069) climate conditions, by employing very high resolution (250 m) modelling experiments, using the urban boundary layer climate model UrbClim. Meteorological parameters that are related to the intensity of the UHI are identified and it is investigated how these parameters and the magnitude of the UHI evolve for two plausible trajectories for future climate conditions. UHI intensity is found to be strongly correlated to the inversion strength in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere. The results for the future scenarios indicate that the magnitude of the UHI is expected to decrease slightly due to global warming. This can be attributed to the increased incoming longwave radiation, caused by higher air temperature and humidity values. The presence of the UHI also has a significant impact on the frequency of extreme temperature events in the city area, both in present and future climates, and exacerbates the impact of climate change on the urban population as the amount of heat wave days in the city increases twice as fast as in the rural surroundings.
Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist die Untersuchung der stratosphärischen Meridionalzirkulation mit Hilfe von chemisch aktiven Spurengasen. Diese motiviert sich durch die Tatsache, dass der Klimawandel neben den viel erforschten Auswirkungen auf die Troposphäre, auch Reaktionen in der Stratosphäre zur Folge hat, welche bisher weit weniger tiefgehend untersucht wurden. Das macht die Stratosphäre zu einem aktuellen und frequentierten Forschungsgebiet der experimentellen und theoretischen Meteorologie. Neben vereinzelten hochaufgelösten in-situ Messungen und globalen Satellitendaten sind es hier vor allem globale numerische Klima-Chemiemodelle, die für Analysen genutzt werden. Für diese Arbeit wurden Daten des EMAC-Modells (engl.: ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) ausgwertet, welche im Rahmen der ESCiMo (engl.: Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling) Initiative vom MESSy-Konsortium (engl.: Modular Earth Submodel System) erstellt wurden. Die Zielsetzung dieser Arbeit war, ob sich etwaige Änderungen des stratosphärischen Transports anhand von modellierten, chemisch aktiven, idealisierten Spurengasen feststellen lassen. Idealisiert bedeutet hierbei, dass diese Gase ein konstantes Mischungsverhältnis am Erdboden aufweisen und den identischen chemischen Prozessen unterliegen wie die realistischen Tracer. Dies hat zur Folge, dass diese Spurengase somit nicht in das Strahlungsbudget des Modells rückkoppeln und ihre Verteilung nicht durch zeitliche troposphärische Trends beeinflusst wird. Zur Analyse des stratosphärischen Transports wurden die Differenzen der monatlich gemittelten Mischungsverhältnisse zweier Zeitpunkte der verschiedenen Substanzen im Vertikalprofil betrachtet und ausgewertet, wobei hier die photolytische Lebenszeit und die Zeitskala des Transports zu berücksichtigen war. Um die Saisonalität von Transport und Chemie zu berücksichtigen, wurden dazu die Monate März, Juni, September und Dezember analysiert.
Die Resultate zeigten, dass chemisch aktive Substanzen in der Tat geeignet sind Änderungen in der Dynamik festzustellen. So stellte sich heraus, dass mit einer allgemeinen Intensivierung der stratosphärischen Meridionalzirkulation im kommenden Jahrhundert gerechnet werden kann, wobei hiervon besonders die untere Stratosphäre betroffen ist. Eine Differenzierung welche Komponente der Zirkulation (Residualtransport oder bidirektionale quasi-horizontale Mischung) hierbei von übergeordneter Bedeutung ist, konnte nicht spezifiziert werden. Um abzuschätzen, ob sich die Änderung der Zirkulation durch Änderungen in den Mischungsverhältnissen von chemisch aktiven Substanzen mit Hilfe von direkten Messungen nachweisen lässt, wurde die atmosphärische Variabilität des Modells bestimmt und mit den Veränderungen dieser Mischungsverhältnisse verglichen. Es zeigte sich, dass diese modellierte atmosphärische Variabilität zum Teil deutlich größer war, als die Differenzen der Mischungsverhältnisse und so ohne eine Vielzahl von in-situ Messungen keine eindeutige Aussage zulassen. Um eine statistisch valide Aussage treffen zu können, müssen daher mehrere Messreihen innerhalb eines Monats durchgeführt werden. Zudem stellte sich heraus, dass der Monat Juni der bestmögliche Messzeitraum ist, da hier die natürliche Variabilität am geringsten ist. Zuletzt wurden die Spurengase mit vergleichsweise kleiner chemischer Lebenszeit auf normierten N2O-Isoplethen untersucht und die Verschiebung dieser Kurve zwischen den zwei Zeitpunkten analysiert. Die so gewonnenen Resultate ließen den Schluss zu, dass sich auf diese Weise die atmosphärische Variabilität reduzieren lässt und bei Nutzung mit experimentellen Daten eine zu den Tracer-Differenzen konsistente Aussage zulässt. So bestärkte diese Methode die These, dass sich der stratosphärische Transport innerhalb des 21. Jahrhunderts wahrscheinlich verstärken wird.
Background: Replicate population pairs that diverge in response to similar selective regimes allow for an investigation of (a) whether phenotypic traits diverge in a similar and predictable fashion, (b) whether there is gradual variation in phenotypic divergence reflecting variation in the strength of natural selection among populations, (c) whether the extent of this divergence is correlated between multiple character suites (i.e., concerted evolution), and (d) whether gradual variation in phenotypic divergence predicts the degree of reproductive isolation, pointing towards a role for adaptation as a driver of (ecological) speciation. Here, we use poeciliid fishes of the genera Gambusia and Poecilia that have repeatedly evolved extremophile lineages able to tolerate high and sustained levels of toxic hydrogen sulfide (H2S) to answer these questions.
Results: We investigated evolutionary divergence in response to H2S in Gambusia spp. (and to a lesser extent Poecilia spp.) using a multivariate approach considering the interplay of life history, body shape, and population genetics (nuclear miscrosatellites to infer population genetic differentiation as a proxy for reproductive isolation). We uncovered both shared and unique patterns of evolution: most extremophile Gambusia predictably evolved larger heads and offspring size, matching a priori predictions for adaptation to sulfidic waters, while variation in adult life histories was idiosyncratic. When investigating patterns for both genera (Gambusia and Poecilia), we found that divergence in offspring-related life histories and body shape were positively correlated across populations, but evidence for individual-level associations between the two character suites was limited, suggesting that genetic linkage, developmental interdependencies, or pleiotropic effects do not explain patterns of concerted evolution. We further found that phenotypic divergence was positively correlated with both environmental H2S-concentration and neutral genetic differentiation (a proxy for gene flow).
Conclusions: Our results suggest that higher toxicity exerts stronger selection, and that divergent selection appears to constrain gene flow, supporting a scenario of ecological speciation. Nonetheless, progress toward ecological speciation was variable, partially reflecting variation in the strength of divergent selection, highlighting the complexity of selective regimes even in natural systems that are seemingly governed by a single, strong selective agent.
Evidence of widespread wildfires in a coal seam from the middle Permian of the North China Basin
(2017)
The North China Basin is the largest coal-bearing basin in China, and has an areal extent of 800,000 km2. We analyzed 138 coal samples and in situ pillar coal samples of the middle Permian from this basin by macropetrography, microscope, scanning electron microscope, gas chromatography, and gas chromatography–mass spectrometer in order to study wildfires. High contents of inertinite (charcoal) and natural coke particles observed in coal samples indicate that vegetation in precursor mires and peats of the middle Permian coal from north China was exposed to far-ranging wildfires. In addition, high-molecular-weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were detected in the coal samples. These aromatic compounds were formed under high temperatures and provide further evidence of wildfire. These wildfires would have discharged significant CO and CO2 gases into the atmosphere and affected the paleoclimate and paleoecosystem.
Coccolithophores are an abundant phytoplankton group that exhibit remarkable diversity in their biology, ecology and calcitic exoskeletons (coccospheres). Their extensive fossil record is a testament to their important biogeochemical role and is a valuable archive of biotic responses to environmental change stretching back over 200 million years. However, to realise the full potential of this archive for (palaeo-)biology and biogeochemistry requires an understanding of the physiological processes that underpin coccosphere architecture. Using culturing experiments on four modern coccolithophore species (Calcidiscus leptoporus, Calcidiscus quadriperforatus, Helicosphaera carteri and Coccolithus braarudii) from three long-lived families, we investigate how coccosphere architecture responds to shifts from exponential (rapid cell division) to stationary (slowed cell division) growth phases as cell physiology reacts to nutrient depletion. These experiments reveal statistical differences in coccosphere size and the number of coccoliths per cell between these two growth phases, specifically that cells in exponential-phase growth are typically smaller with fewer coccoliths, whereas cells experiencing growth-limiting nutrient depletion have larger coccosphere sizes and greater numbers of coccoliths per cell. Although the exact numbers are species-specific, these growth-phase shifts in coccosphere geometry demonstrate that the core physiological responses of cells to nutrient depletion result in increased coccosphere sizes and coccoliths per cell across four different coccolithophore families (Calcidiscaceae, Coccolithaceae, Isochrysidaceae and Helicosphaeraceae), a representative diversity of this phytoplankton group. Building on this, the direct comparison of coccosphere geometries in modern and fossil coccolithophores enables a proxy for growth phase to be developed that can be used to investigate growth responses to environmental change throughout their long evolutionary history. Our data also show that changes in growth rate and coccoliths per cell associated with growth-phase shifts can substantially alter cellular calcite production. Coccosphere geometry is therefore a valuable tool for accessing growth information in the fossil record, providing unprecedented insights into the response of species to environmental change and the potential biogeochemical consequences.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know the methodological uncertainties in the water resources estimates. The study presented here quantifies effects of the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological variables on water balance components at the global, continental and grid cell scale by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISI-MIP 2.1) with five state-of-the-art climate forcing input data-sets. While global precipitation over land during 1971–2000 varies between 103 500 and 111 000 km3 yr−1, global river discharge varies between 39 200 and 42 200 km3 yr−1. Temporal trends of global wa- ter balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing (except human water abstractions), and there is a need for temporal homogenization of climate forcings (in particular WFD/WFDEI). On about 10–20 % of the global land area, change of river discharge between two consecutive 30 year periods was driven more strongly by changes of human water use including dam construction than by changes in precipitation. This number increases towards the end of the 20th century due to intensified human water use and dam construction. The calibration approach of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated river discharge significantly. Different homgeneous climate forcings lead to a variation of Q of only 1.6 % for the 54 % of global land area that are constrained by discharge observations, while estimated renewable water resources in the remaining uncalibrated regions vary by 18.5 %. Uncertainties are especially high in Southeast Asia where Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data availability is very sparse. By sharing already available discharge data, or installing new streamflow gauging stations in such regions, water balance uncertainties could be reduced which would lead to an improved assessment of the world’s water resources.
Ice nucleating particles over the Eastern Mediterranean measured by unmanned aircraft systems
(2016)
During an intensive field campaign on aerosol, clouds and ice nucleation in the Eastern Mediterranean in April 2016, we have measured the abundance of ice nucleating particles (INP) in the lower troposphere from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). Aerosol samples were collected by miniaturized electrostatic precipitators onboard the UAS at altitudes up to 2.5 km. The number of INP in these samples, which are active in the deposition and condensation modes at temperatures from −20 to −30 ◦C, were analyzed immediately after collection on site using the ice nucleus counter FRIDGE. During the one month campaign we encountered a series of Saharan dust plumes that traveled at several kilometers altitude. Here we present INP data from 42 individual flights, together with aerosol number concentrations, observations of lidar backscattering, dust concentrations derived by the dust transport model DREAM (Dust Regional Atmospheric Model), and results from scanning electron microscopy. The effect of the dust plumes is reflected by the coincidence of INP with the particulate mass (PM), the lidar signal and with the predicted dust mass of the model. This suggests that mineral dust or a constituent related to dust was a major contributor to the ice nucleating properties of the aerosol. Peak concentrations of above 100 INP std.l -1 were measured at −30 ◦C. The INP concentration in elevated plumes was on average a factor of 10 higher than at ground level. Since desert dust is transported for long distances over wide areas of the globe predominantly at several km altitude we conclude that INP measurements at ground level may be of limited significance for the situation at the level of cloud formation.
Mean age of stratospheric air can be derived from observations of sufficiently long-lived trace gases with approximately linear trends in the troposphere. Mean age can serve as a tracer to investigate stratospheric transport and long-term changes in the strength of the overturning Brewer–Dobson circulation of the stratosphere. For this purpose, a low-cost method is required in order to allow for regular observations up to altitudes of about 30 km. Despite the desired low costs, high precision and accuracy are required in order to determine mean age. We present balloon-borne AirCore observations from two midlatitude sites: Timmins in Ontario/Canada and Lindenberg in Germany. During the Timmins campaign, five AirCores sampled air in parallel with a large stratospheric balloon and were analysed for CO2, CH4 and partly CO. We show that there is good agreement between the different AirCores (better than 0.1 %), especially when vertical gradients are small. The measurements from Lindenberg were performed using small low-cost balloons and yielded very comparable results. We have used the observations to extend our long-term data set of mean age observations at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The time series now covers more than 40 years and shows a small, statistically non-significant positive trend of 0.15 ± 0.18 years decade−1. This trend is slightly smaller than the previous estimate of 0.24 ± 0.22 years decade−1 which was based on observations up to the year 2006. These observations are still in contrast to strong negative trends of mean age as derived from some model calculations.
AirCore-HR : a high-resolution column sampling to enhance the
vertical description of CH₄ and CO₂
(2017)
An original and innovative sampling system called AirCore was presented by NOAA in 2010 (Karion et al., 2010). It consists of a long ( > 100 m) and narrow (< 1 cm) stainless steel tube that can retain a profile of atmospheric air. The captured air sample has then to be analyzed with a gas analyzer for trace mole fraction. In this study, we introduce a new AirCore aiming to improve resolution along the vertical with the objectives to (i) better capture the vertical distribution of CO2 and CH4, (ii) provide a tool to compare AirCores and validate the estimated vertical resolution achieved by AirCores. This (high-resolution) AirCore-HR consists of a 300 m tube, combining 200 m of 0.125 in. (3.175 mm) tube and a 100 m of 0.25 in. (6.35 mm) tube. This new configuration allows us to achieve a vertical resolution of 300 m up to 15 km and better than 500 m up to 22 km (if analysis of the retained sample is performed within 3 h). The AirCore-HR was flown for the first time during the annual StratoScience campaign from CNES in August 2014 from Timmins (Ontario, Canada). High-resolution vertical profiles of CO2 and CH4 up to 25 km were successfully retrieved. These profiles revealed well-defined transport structures in the troposphere (also seen in CAMS-ECMWF high-resolution forecasts of CO2 and CH4 profiles) and captured the decrease of CO2 and CH4 in the stratosphere. The multi-instrument gondola also carried two other low-resolution AirCore-GUF that allowed us to perform direct comparisons and study the underlying processing method used to convert the sample of air to greenhouse gases vertical profiles. In particular, degrading the AirCore-HR derived profiles to the low resolution of AirCore-GUF yields an excellent match between both sets of CH4 profiles and shows a good consistency in terms of vertical structures. This fully validates the theoretical vertical resolution achievable by AirCores. Concerning CO2 although a good agreement is found in terms of vertical structure, the comparison between the various AirCores yields a large and variable bias (up to almost 3 ppm in some parts of the pro- files). The reasons of this bias, possibly related to the drying agent used to dry the air, are still being investigated. Finally, the uncertainties associated with the measurements are assessed, yielding an average uncertainty below 3 ppb for CH4 and 0.25 ppm for CO2 with the major source of uncertainty coming from the potential loss of air sample on the ground and the choice of the starting and ending point of the collected air sample inside the tube. In an ideal case where the sample would be fully retained, it would be possible to know precisely the pressure at which air was sampled last and thus to improve the overall uncertainty to about 0.1 ppm for CO2 and 2 ppb for CH4
Recent analysis of long-term balloon-borne measurements of Antarctic stratospheric condensation nuclei (CN) and temperature combined with global model calculations showed the wide extent of a mid stratospheric layer of new particles. Here the nucleation model SAWNUC is used to derive Antarctic stratospheric gaseous sulfuric acid profiles and to investigate the nucleation process of this CN layer. The sulfuric acid profiles were derived for an altitude range of 18-32 km between July and October by simulating air parcel trajectories that descend inside the polar vortex and calculating the sulfuric acid amount that reproduces the observations. The derived sulfuric acid concentrations (volume mixing ratios) are of the order of magnitude of 104 cm-3 (10-14) in July. In the following months the concentrations increase to about 107 cm-3 (10 exp -11) in October. They depend strongly on the temperature because a given temperature leaves only a small sulfuric acid range to reproduce the observed magnitude of CN. Ion-induced nucleation occurs. However, while it dominates nucleation at higher temperatures it has no significant influence on the nucleation rates at lower temperatures. Preexisting particles significantly reduce nucleation at sulfuric acid mixing ratios below 1 ppt. First estimates of sulfuric acid production rates range from 0.5 to about 500 molecules cm-3 s-1. A production mechanism for gaseous sulfuric acid during the Antarctic winter seems to be necessary to fully explain the observations. The derived sulfuric acid profiles compare well with midlatitude and Arctic sulfuric acid concentrations.
Nucleation modeling of the Antarctic stratospheric CN layer and derivation of sulfuric acid profiles
(2017)
Recent analysis of long-term balloon-borne measurements of Antarctic stratospheric condensation nuclei (CN) between July and October showed the formation of a volatile CN layer at 21–27 km altitude in a background of existing particles. We use the nucleation model SAWNUC to simulate these CN in subsiding air parcels and study their nucleation and coagulation characteristics. Our simulations confirm recent analysis that the development of the CN layer can be explained with neutral sulfuric acid–water nucleation and we show that outside the CN layer the measured CN concentrations are well reproduced just considering coagulation and the subsidence of the air parcels. While ion-induced nucleation is expected as the dominating formation process at higher temperatures, it does not play a significant role during the CN layer formation as the charged clusters recombine too fast. Further, we derive sulfuric acid concentrations for the CN layer formation. Our concentrations are about 1 order of magnitude higher than previously presented concentrations as our simulations consider that nucleated clusters have to grow to CN size and can coagulate with preexisting particles. Finally, we calculate threshold sulfuric acid profiles that show which concentration of sulfuric acid is necessary for nucleation and growth to observable size. These threshold profiles should represent upper limits of the actual sulfuric acid outside the CN layer. According to our profiles, sulfuric acid concentrations seem to be below midlatitude average during Antarctic winter but above midlatitude average for the CN layer formation.
Der "Regionalatlas Rhein-Main" wird zum 75-jährigen Jubiläum der "Rhein-Mainischen Forschung" veröffentlicht. Er verfolgt das Ziel,
- einne Überblick über die regionale Struktur des Rhein-Main-Gebietes zu verschaffen,
- Politik, Wirtschaft und Verwaltung Grundlagendaten in regionalisierter Form für ihre Entscheidungen an die Hand zu geben, und
- den im Rhein-Main-Gebiet lebenden Menschen die regionalen Strukturen ihres Lebensraumes näher zu bringen.