Networks in risk spillovers: A Multivariate GARCH Perspective

  • We propose a spatiotemporal approach for modeling risk spillovers using time-varying proximity matrices based on observable financial networks and introduce a new bilateral specification. We study covariance stationarity and identification of the model, and analyze consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator. We show how to isolate risk channels and we discuss how to compute target exposure able to reduce system variance. An empirical analysis on Euro-area cross-country holdings shows that Italy and Ireland are key players in spreading risk, France and Portugal are the major risk receivers, and we uncover Spain's non-trivial role as risk middleman.

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Author:Monica BillioORCiDGND, Massimiliano CaporinORCiDGND, Lorenzo Frattarolo, Loriana PelizzonORCiDGND
Parent Title (English):SAFE working paper series ; No. 225
Series (Serial Number):SAFE working paper (225)
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2018
Year of first Publication:2018
Publishing Institution:Universit├Ątsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2018/09/05
Page Number:86
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / House of Finance (HoF)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht