The status and challenge of global fire modelling

  • Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

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Author:Stijn Hantson, Almut ArnethORCiDGND, Sandy P. HarrisonORCiDGND, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin PrenticeORCiDGND, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo ArtaxoORCiDGND, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew ForrestORCiD, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas HicklerORCiD, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang KnorrORCiD, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangoen, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Chao Yue
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-423700
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-17
ISSN:1810-6285
ISSN:1810-6277
Parent Title (English):Biogeosciences discussions
Publisher:Copernicus
Place of publication:Katlenburg-Lindau [u. a.]
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2016/12/08
Date of first Publication:2016/01/25
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2016/12/08
Volume:13
Page Number:30
First Page:1
Last Page:30
Note:
© Author(s) 2016. CC-BY 3.0 License.
HeBIS-PPN:424006707
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Fachübergreifende Einrichtungen / Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F)
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Sammlungen:Universitätspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0