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RECENTLY, PASSIVE ETFS AND INDEX FUNDS HAVE BECOME POPULAR AMONG INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS. IN OUR STUDY, WE INVESTIGATE WHETHER INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS BENEFIT FROM USING THEM. WITH DATA FROM ONE OF THE LARGEST BROKERAGES IN GERMANY, WE FIND THAT INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS WORSEN THEIR PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE AFTER USING THESE PRODUCTS IN COMPARISON TO NON-USERS. SINCE THESE SECURITIES MAKE MARKET TIMING EASIER, FURTHER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DECREASE IN USERS’ PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IS PRIMARILY DUE TO BAD MARKET TIMING.
THIS STUDY INVESTIGATES WHAT HAPPENS WHEN RETAIL CUSTOMERS ARE OFFERED FREE AND UNBIASED ADVICE. USING A LARGE FIELD EXPERIMENT IT SHOWS THAT THOSE WHO ACCEPT THE OFFER (5%) ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE MALE, OLDER, WEALTHIER, MORE EXPERIENCED AND MORE FINANCIALLY SOPHISTICATED. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE ADVICE WOULD HAVE HELPED, IT ACTUALLY LARGELY FAILED TO HELP BECAUSE THE CUSTOMERS DID NOT LISTEN TO IT. OVERALL, OUR RESULTS SUGGEST THAT THE MERE AVAILABILITY OF UNBIASED FINANCIAL ADVICE IS A NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT CONDITION FOR BENEFITING RETAIL CUSTOMERS.
WE DECOMPOSE INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS’ PORTFOLIO RETURNS INTO PASSIVE BENCHMARK RETURNS, ACTIVE SECURITY SELECTION RETURNS, AND ACTIVE MARKET TIMING RETURNS. FOR THE AVERAGE INVESTOR IN OUR SAMPLE, PASSIVE BENCHMARK RETURNS EXPLAIN SOME 40% OF VARIATION IN LONGITUDINAL PORTFOLIO RETURNS, SECURITY SELECTION EXPLAINS AN ADDITIONAL 50%, AND MARKET TIMING PLAYS ONLY A MINOR ROLE. THIS STANDS IN STARK CONTRAST TO EARLIER RESULTS ON INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS WHERE PASSIVE BENCHMARK RETURNS (REFLECTING DIFFERENT ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGIES) EXPLAIN OVER 90%. THE PREDOMINANCE OF SECURITY SELECTION COMES AT A COST FOR INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS: INVESTORS FROM THE HIGHEST QUINTILE IN TERMS OF SECURITY SELECTION ACTIVITY UNDERPERFORM THEIR PEERS FROM THE LOWEST QUINTILE BY MORE THAN 10 PERCENTAGE POINTS PER YEAR. TRANSACTION COSTS EXPLAIN ONLY PART OF THIS UNDERPERFORMANCE. THE LESS INVESTORS DIVERSIFY, THE WORSE THEY DO.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused strains on health systems worldwide disrupting routine hospital services for all non-COVID patients. Within this retrospective study, we analyzed inpatient hospital admissions across 18 German university hospitals during the 2020 lockdown period compared to 2018. Patients admitted to hospital between January 1 and May 31, 2020 and the corresponding periods in 2018 and 2019 were included in this study. Data derived from electronic health records were collected and analyzed using the data integration center infrastructure implemented in the university hospitals that are part of the four consortia funded by the German Medical Informatics Initiative. Admissions were grouped and counted by ICD 10 chapters and specific reasons for treatment at each site. Pooled aggregated data were centrally analyzed with descriptive statistics to compare absolute and relative differences between time periods of different years. The results illustrate how care process adoptions depended on the COVID-19 epidemiological situation and the criticality of the disease. Overall inpatient hospital admissions decreased by 35% in weeks 1 to 4 and by 30.3% in weeks 5 to 8 after the lockdown announcement compared to 2018. Even hospital admissions for critical care conditions such as malignant cancer treatments were reduced. We also noted a high reduction of emergency admissions such as myocardial infarction (38.7%), whereas the reduction in stroke admissions was smaller (19.6%). In contrast, we observed a considerable reduction in admissions for non-critical clinical situations, such as hysterectomies for benign tumors (78.8%) and hip replacements due to arthrosis (82.4%). In summary, our study shows that the university hospital admission rates in Germany were substantially reduced following the national COVID-19 lockdown. These included critical care or emergency conditions in which deferral is expected to impair clinical outcomes. Future studies are needed to delineate how appropriate medical care of critically ill patients can be maintained during a pandemic.
In patients with von Willebrand disease (vWD) the interest in age-related comorbidities has grown, because the life expectancy of these patients has increased. The research question of this study was whether patients with vWD show a different endothelial function compared to the general population. A total of 37 patients with type 1 (n = 23), type 2 (n = 10) and type 3 (n = 4) vWD, 14 controls and 38 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) were included in this study. Five markers of endothelial dysfunction (MOED) were determined. Moreover, the endothelial function was examined using the Itamar Endo-PAT. The reactive hyperemia index (RHI) was calculated from the results. The markers soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (p = 0.171), P-Selectin (p = 0.512), interleukin-6 (p = 0.734) and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (p = 0.761) showed higher levels in patients with vWD, but were not significantly different compared to the control group. RHI was impaired in CAD-patients (1.855), whereas vWD patients had mean results of 1.870 and controls 2.112 (p = 0.367). In this study, the endothelial function measurements of patients with von Willebrand disease were not significantly different compared to healthy controls.
Interleukin-7 (IL-7) is an important cytokine with pivotal pro-survival functions in the adaptive immune system. However, the role of IL-7 in innate immunity is not fully understood. In the present study, the impact of hepatic IL-7 on innate immune cells was assessed by functional experiments as well as in patients with different stages of liver cirrhosis or acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Human hepatocytes and liver sinusoidal endothelial cells secreted IL-7 in response to stimulation with interferons (IFNs) of type I and II, yet not type III. De novo translation of interferon-response factor-1 (IRF-1) restricted IL-7 production to stimulation with type I and II IFNs. LPS-primed human macrophages were identified as innate immune target cells responding to IL-7 signaling by inactivation of Glycogen synthase kinase-3 (GSK3). IL-7-mediated GSK3 inactivation augmented LPS-induced secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines and blunted LPS tolerance of macrophages. The IFN-IRF-1-IL-7 axis was present in liver cirrhosis patients. However, liver cirrhosis patients with or without ACLF had significantly lower concentrations of IL-7 in serum compared to healthy controls, which might contribute to LPS-tolerance in these patients. In conclusion, we propose the presence of an inflammatory cascade where IFNs of type I/II induce hepatocellular IL-7 in an IRF-1-restriced way. Beyond its role in adaptive immune responses, IL-7 appears to augment the response of macrophages to LPS and to ameliorate LPS tolerance, which may improve innate immune responses against invading pathogens.
Although the elderly are more vulnerable to COVID-19, the empirical evidence suggests that they do not behave more cautiously in the pandemic than younger individuals. This theoretical model argues that some individuals might not comply with the COVID-19 measures to reassure themselves that they are not vulnerable, and that the incentives for such self-signaling can be stronger for the elderly. The results suggest that communication strategies emphasizing the dangers of COVID-19 could backfire and reduce compliance among the elderly.
We study risk taking in a panel of subjects in Wuhan, China - before, during the COVID-19 crisis, and after the country reopened. Subjects in our sample traveled for semester break in January, generating variation in exposure to the virus and quarantine in Wuhan. Higher exposure leads subjects to reduce planned risk taking, risky investments, and optimism. Our findings help unify existing studies by showing that aggregate shocks affect general preferences for risk and economic expectations, while heterogeneity in experience further affect risk taking through beliefs about individuals’ own outcomes such as luck and sense of control.
JEL Classification: G50, G51, G11, D14, G41
This article studies whether people want to control what information on their own past pro-social behavior is revealed to others. Participants are assigned a color that depends on their past pro-social behavior. They can spend money to manipulate the probability with which their color is revealed to another participant. The data show that participants are more likely to reveal colors with more favorable informational content. This pattern is not found in a control treatment in which colors are randomly assigned, thus revealing nothing about past pro-social behavior. Regression analysis confrms these fndings, also when controlling for past pro-social behavior. These results complement the existing empirical evidence, confrming that people strategically and, therefore, consciously manipulate their social image.
1. Recent research highlights the ecological importance of individual variation in behavioural predictability. Individuals may not only differ in their average expression of a behavioural trait (their behavioural type) and in their ability to adjust behaviour to changing environmental conditions (individual plasticity), but also in their variability around their average behaviour (predictability). However, quantifying behavioural predictability in the wild has been challenging due to limitations of acquiring sufficient repeated behavioural measures.
2. We here demonstrate how common biologging data can be used to detect individual variation in behavioural predictability in the wild and reveal the coexistence of highly predictable individuals along with unpredictable individuals within the same population.
3. We repeatedly quantified two behaviours—daily movement distance and diurnal activity—in 62 female brown bears Ursus arctos tracked across 187 monitoring years. We calculated behavioural predictability over the short term (50 consecutive monitoring days within 1 year) and long term (across monitoring years) as the residual intra-individual variability (rIIV) of behaviour around the behavioural reaction norm. We tested whether predictability varies systematically across average behavioural types and whether it is correlated across functionally distinct behaviours, that is, daily movement distance and amount of diurnal activity.
4. Brown bears showed individual variation in behavioural predictability from predictable to unpredictable individuals. For example, the standard deviation around the average daily movement distance within one monitoring year varied up to fivefold from 1.1 to 5.5 km across individuals. Individual predictability for both daily movement distance and diurnality was conserved across monitoring years. Individual predictability was correlated with behavioural type where individuals which were on average more diurnal and mobile were also more unpredictable in their behaviour. In contrast, more nocturnal individuals moved less and were more predictable in their behaviour. Finally, individual predictability in daily movement distance and diurnality was positively correlated, suggesting that individual predictability may be a quantitative trait in its own regard that could evolve and is underpinned by genetic variation.
5. Unpredictable individuals may cope better with stochastic events and unpredictability may hence be an adaptive behavioural response to increased predation risk.